Late Cenozoic climate and the phylogenetic structure of regional conifer floras world‐wide
AIM: Using conifers as a model system, we aim to test four hypotheses. H1: the processes that shape the phylogenetic structure of regional species assemblages depend on climate. H2: apparent effects of current climate can be equally well explained by past climate. H3: strong Quaternary climate oscil...
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| Published in | Global ecology and biogeography Vol. 24; no. 10; pp. 1136 - 1148 |
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| Main Authors | , , , , |
| Format | Journal Article |
| Language | English |
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Oxford
Blackwell Science
01.10.2015
Blackwell Publishing Ltd John Wiley & Sons Ltd Wiley Subscription Services, Inc |
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| Abstract | AIM: Using conifers as a model system, we aim to test four hypotheses. H1: the processes that shape the phylogenetic structure of regional species assemblages depend on climate. H2: apparent effects of current climate can be equally well explained by past climate. H3: strong Quaternary climate oscillations have led to phylogenetically non‐random assemblages, either with few closely related species because isolated populations do not persist long enough to become new species or with many close relatives due to increased allopatric speciation. H4: strong late Cenozoic aridification has led to assemblages with many close relatives due to extinction and adaptive radiation. LOCATION: Global. METHODS: We used boosted regression trees to relate the net relatedness index (NRI) of regional conifer assemblages to current climate, past climate (0.021, 3 and 7.3–11.6 Ma), and gradual and cyclic late Cenozoic climate change while simultaneously accounting for habitat and biogeographic covariates. RESULTS: Climate was the most important predictor of NRI, supporting H1. Current and past climate showed similar relationships with NRI, supporting H2. Conifer NRI was further related to Quaternary climate oscillations and gradual late Cenozoic climate trends, but the shape of the relationships supported neither H3 nor H4. MAIN CONCLUSIONS: The climate–NRI relationships suggest that late Cenozoic climate consistently influenced the dynamics of conifer speciation, extinction and dispersal, leading to global patterns of phylogenetic assemblage structure. We deduce from the phylogenetic structure that diversification has been highest in warm or dry climates over the last ≥11.6 Myr. The fact that phylogenetic structure is related to climate trends and oscillations indicates that climate change plays an important role in addition to climate per se, but the exact underlying mechanisms remain unclear. Our results suggest that past climate needs to be taken into account when aiming to explain the phylogenetic structure of regional assemblages and other related aspects of biodiversity. |
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| AbstractList | AIM: Using conifers as a model system, we aim to test four hypotheses. H1: the processes that shape the phylogenetic structure of regional species assemblages depend on climate. H2: apparent effects of current climate can be equally well explained by past climate. H3: strong Quaternary climate oscillations have led to phylogenetically non‐random assemblages, either with few closely related species because isolated populations do not persist long enough to become new species or with many close relatives due to increased allopatric speciation. H4: strong late Cenozoic aridification has led to assemblages with many close relatives due to extinction and adaptive radiation. LOCATION: Global. METHODS: We used boosted regression trees to relate the net relatedness index (NRI) of regional conifer assemblages to current climate, past climate (0.021, 3 and 7.3–11.6 Ma), and gradual and cyclic late Cenozoic climate change while simultaneously accounting for habitat and biogeographic covariates. RESULTS: Climate was the most important predictor of NRI, supporting H1. Current and past climate showed similar relationships with NRI, supporting H2. Conifer NRI was further related to Quaternary climate oscillations and gradual late Cenozoic climate trends, but the shape of the relationships supported neither H3 nor H4. MAIN CONCLUSIONS: The climate–NRI relationships suggest that late Cenozoic climate consistently influenced the dynamics of conifer speciation, extinction and dispersal, leading to global patterns of phylogenetic assemblage structure. We deduce from the phylogenetic structure that diversification has been highest in warm or dry climates over the last ≥11.6 Myr. The fact that phylogenetic structure is related to climate trends and oscillations indicates that climate change plays an important role in addition to climate per se, but the exact underlying mechanisms remain unclear. Our results suggest that past climate needs to be taken into account when aiming to explain the phylogenetic structure of regional assemblages and other related aspects of biodiversity. Aim Using conifers as a model system, we aim to test four hypotheses. H1: the processes that shape the phylogenetic structure of regional species assemblages depend on climate. H2: apparent effects of current climate can be equally well explained by past climate. H3: strong Quaternary climate oscillations have led to phylogenetically non‐random assemblages, either with few closely related species because isolated populations do not persist long enough to become new species or with many close relatives due to increased allopatric speciation. H4: strong late Cenozoic aridification has led to assemblages with many close relatives due to extinction and adaptive radiation. Location Global. Methods We used boosted regression trees to relate the net relatedness index (NRI) of regional conifer assemblages to current climate, past climate (0.021, 3 and 7.3–11.6 Ma), and gradual and cyclic late Cenozoic climate change while simultaneously accounting for habitat and biogeographic covariates. Results Climate was the most important predictor of NRI, supporting H1. Current and past climate showed similar relationships with NRI, supporting H2. Conifer NRI was further related to Quaternary climate oscillations and gradual late Cenozoic climate trends, but the shape of the relationships supported neither H3 nor H4. Main conclusions The climate–NRI relationships suggest that late Cenozoic climate consistently influenced the dynamics of conifer speciation, extinction and dispersal, leading to global patterns of phylogenetic assemblage structure. We deduce from the phylogenetic structure that diversification has been highest in warm or dry climates over the last ≥11.6 Myr. The fact that phylogenetic structure is related to climate trends and oscillations indicates that climate change plays an important role in addition to climate per se, but the exact underlying mechanisms remain unclear. Our results suggest that past climate needs to be taken into account when aiming to explain the phylogenetic structure of regional assemblages and other related aspects of biodiversity. Aim Using conifers as a model system, we aim to test four hypotheses. H1: the processes that shape the phylogenetic structure of regional species assemblages depend on climate. H2: apparent effects of current climate can be equally well explained by past climate. H3: strong Quaternary climate oscillations have led to phylogenetically non-random assemblages, either with few closely related species because isolated populations do not persist long enough to become new species or with many close relatives due to increased allopatric speciation. H4: strong late Cenozoic aridification has led to assemblages with many close relatives due to extinction and adaptive radiation. Location Global. Methods We used boosted regression trees to relate the net relatedness index (NRI) of regional conifer assemblages to current climate, past climate (0.021, 3 and 7.3-11.6 Ma), and gradual and cyclic late Cenozoic climate change while simultaneously accounting for habitat and biogeographic covariates. Results Climate was the most important predictor of NRI, supporting H1. Current and past climate showed similar relationships with NRI, supporting H2. Conifer NRI was further related to Quaternary climate oscillations and gradual late Cenozoic climate trends, but the shape of the relationships supported neither H3 nor H4. Main conclusions The climate-NRI relationships suggest that late Cenozoic climate consistently influenced the dynamics of conifer speciation, extinction and dispersal, leading to global patterns of phylogenetic assemblage structure. We deduce from the phylogenetic structure that diversification has been highest in warm or dry climates over the last greater than or equal to 11.6 Myr. The fact that phylogenetic structure is related to climate trends and oscillations indicates that climate change plays an important role in addition to climate per se, but the exact underlying mechanisms remain unclear. Our results suggest that past climate needs to be taken into account when aiming to explain the phylogenetic structure of regional assemblages and other related aspects of biodiversity. Aim: Using conifers as a model system, we aim to test four hypotheses. HI: the processes that shape the phylogenetic structure of regional species assemblages depend on climate. H2: apparent effects of current climate can be equally well explained by past climate. H3: strong Quaternary climate oscillations have led to phylogenetically non-random assemblages, either with few closely related species because isolated populations do not persist long enough to become new species or with many close relatives due to increased allopatric speciation. H4: strong late Cenozoic aridification has led to assemblages with many close relatives due to extinction and adaptive radiation. Location: Global. Methods: We used boosted regression trees to relate the net relatedness index (NRI) of regional conifer assemblages to current climate, past climate (0.021, 3 and 7.3-11.6 Ma), and gradual and cyclic late Cenozoic climate change while simultaneously accounting for habitat and biogeographic covariates. Results: Climate was the most important predictor of NRI, supporting H1. Current and past climate showed similar relationships with NRI, supporting H2. Conifer NRI was further related to Quaternary climate oscillations and gradual late Cenozoic climate trends, but the shape of the relationships supported neither H3 nor H4. Main conclusions: The climate-NRI relationships suggest that late Cenozoic climate consistently influenced the dynamics of conifer speciation, extinction and dispersal, leading to global patterns of phylogenetic assemblage structure. We deduce from the phylogenetic structure that diversification has been highest in warm or dry climates over the last ≥11.6 Myr. The fact that phylogenetic structure is related to climate trends and oscillations indicates that climate change plays an important role in addition to climate per se, but the exact underlying mechanisms remain unclear. Our results suggest that past climate needs to be taken into account when aiming to explain the phylogenetic structure of regional assemblages and other related aspects of biodiversity. |
| Author | Eiserhardt, Wolf L. Borchsenius, Finn Kissling, W. Daniel Sandel, Brody Svenning, Jens-Christian |
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| Notes | http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/geb.12350 Danish Council for Independent Research | Natural Sciences - No. 12-125079 University of Amsterdam Appendix S1 Supplementary methods. Appendix S2 Species not included in the molecular phylogenetic tree. Table S1 Taxonomic matching of the molecular phylogenetic tree and the World Checklist of Selected Plant Families. Table S2 Relative importance of predictor variables in models of conifer phylogenetic structure. Figure S1 Maps of predictor variables used to predict the phylogenetic structure of regional conifer assemblages. Figure S2 Moran's I correlograms of the residuals of ordinary least squares and spatial autoregression models used to calculate the average phylogenetic structure of regional conifer floras world-wide. Figure S3 Relationships between geographic area and conifer phylogenetic structure, conifer species richness and environmental variables across all 'botanical countries' with conifers. Figure S4 Partial responses of conifer phylogenetic structure to climate variables in the Old World and the New World. Figure S5 Partial responses of conifer phylogenetic structure to habitat and biogeographic variables. Figure S6 Partial responses of conifer phylogenetic structure to climate variables, taking into account climatic variation within 'botanical countries' - pine clade. Figure S7 Partial responses of conifer phylogenetic structure to climate variables, taking into account climatic variation within 'botanical countries' - podocarp clade. Figure S8 Partial responses of conifer phylogenetic structure to climate variables, taking into account climatic variation within 'botanical countries' - cypress clade. istex:10F90C52B7247BA00089BF370AAA636206616F70 ark:/67375/WNG-N91P0TS7-P ArticleID:GEB12350 ObjectType-Article-1 SourceType-Scholarly Journals-1 ObjectType-Feature-2 content type line 14 content type line 23 |
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| SubjectTerms | adaptive radiation allopatric speciation Araucariaceae biodiversity biogeography climate Climate change community phylogenetic structure conifers Cupressaceae disequilibrium Endangered & extinct species Evolution extinction gymnosperms habitats macroecology net relatedness index new species palaeoclimate Phylogenetics phylogeny Pinaceae Podocarpaceae Trends |
| Title | Late Cenozoic climate and the phylogenetic structure of regional conifer floras world‐wide |
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