The arms race as a hypergame: A study of routes towards a safer world

There are many possible explanations for the current arms race, some incompatible, some complementary. Here, the hypergame approach is used to present some simple alternative models, reflecting different perceptions that might underlie national behaviour. The possibility that each side in the race i...

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Bibliographic Details
Published inFutures : the journal of policy, planning and futures studies Vol. 14; no. 4; pp. 293 - 306
Main Authors Bennett, P.G., Dando, M.R.
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published Oxford Elsevier Ltd 01.01.1982
Elsevier Science Ltd
Subjects
arms races
Forecasting
Game theory
International
international politics
Military
Politics
Weapons
arms races
international politics
game theory
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Summary:There are many possible explanations for the current arms race, some incompatible, some complementary. Here, the hypergame approach is used to present some simple alternative models, reflecting different perceptions that might underlie national behaviour. The possibility that each side in the race is primarily motivated by genuine fear of the other is considered, and then the question of why such a cycle of distrust may be so difficult to break. It is argued that many faulty decisions result not from incompetent analysis, but through inadequate problem definition — ‘asking the wrong question’. Practical consequences of this argument are outlined.
ISSN:0016-3287
1873-6378
DOI:10.1016/0016-3287(82)90019-2