Modelling of Leishmaniasis Infection Dynamics: A Comparative Time Series Analysis with VAR, VECM, Generalized Linear and Markov Switching Models

In this paper, we are interested in modeling the dynamics of cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) in Errachidia province (Morocco), using epidemiologic data and the most notable climatic factors associated with leishmaniasis, namely humidity, wind speed, rainfall, and temperature. To achieve our objective,...

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Published inEngineering proceedings Vol. 39; no. 1; p. 38
Main Authors Fadoua Badaoui, Souad Bouhout, Amine Amar, Kenza Khomsi
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published MDPI AG 01.07.2023
Subjects
generalized linear model (GLM)
leishmaniasis dynamics
Markov switching model (MSM)
meteorological data
vector auto-regressive model (VAR)
vector error correction model (VECM)
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Abstract In this paper, we are interested in modeling the dynamics of cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) in Errachidia province (Morocco), using epidemiologic data and the most notable climatic factors associated with leishmaniasis, namely humidity, wind speed, rainfall, and temperature. To achieve our objective, we compare the performance of three statistical models, namely the Vector Auto-Regressive (VAR) model, the Vector Error Correction model (VECM), and the Generalized Linear model (GLM), using different metrics. The modeling framework will be compared with the Markov Switching (MSM) approach.
AbstractList In this paper, we are interested in modeling the dynamics of cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) in Errachidia province (Morocco), using epidemiologic data and the most notable climatic factors associated with leishmaniasis, namely humidity, wind speed, rainfall, and temperature. To achieve our objective, we compare the performance of three statistical models, namely the Vector Auto-Regressive (VAR) model, the Vector Error Correction model (VECM), and the Generalized Linear model (GLM), using different metrics. The modeling framework will be compared with the Markov Switching (MSM) approach.
Author Souad Bouhout
Kenza Khomsi
Fadoua Badaoui
Amine Amar
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  fullname: Fadoua Badaoui
  organization: GEAS3D Laboratory, National Institute of Statistics and Applied Economics (INSEA), Rabat 10100, Morocco
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  fullname: Souad Bouhout
  organization: Direction of Epidemiology and Disease Control (DELM), Ministry of Health, Rabat 10100, Morocco
– sequence: 3
  fullname: Amine Amar
  organization: School of Science and Engineering, Al Akhawyn University, Ifrane 53000, Morocco
– sequence: 4
  fullname: Kenza Khomsi
  organization: Independent Researcher, Casablanca 20230, Morocco
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Snippet In this paper, we are interested in modeling the dynamics of cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) in Errachidia province (Morocco), using epidemiologic data and the...
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StartPage 38
SubjectTerms generalized linear model (GLM)
leishmaniasis dynamics
Markov switching model (MSM)
meteorological data
vector auto-regressive model (VAR)
vector error correction model (VECM)
Title Modelling of Leishmaniasis Infection Dynamics: A Comparative Time Series Analysis with VAR, VECM, Generalized Linear and Markov Switching Models
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