Host and viral traits predict zoonotic spillover from mammals
Analysis of a comprehensive database of mammalian host–virus relationships reveals that both the total number of viruses that infect a given species and the proportion likely to be zoonotic are predictable and that this enables identification of mammalian species and geographic locations where novel...
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| Published in | Nature (London) Vol. 546; no. 7660; pp. 646 - 650 |
|---|---|
| Main Authors | , , , , , |
| Format | Journal Article |
| Language | English |
| Published |
London
Nature Publishing Group UK
29.06.2017
Nature Publishing Group |
| Subjects | |
| Online Access | Get full text |
| ISSN | 0028-0836 1476-4687 1476-4687 |
| DOI | 10.1038/nature22975 |
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| Abstract | Analysis of a comprehensive database of mammalian host–virus relationships reveals that both the total number of viruses that infect a given species and the proportion likely to be zoonotic are predictable and that this enables identification of mammalian species and geographic locations where novel zoonoses are likely to be found.
Zoonotic virus distribution patterns
Zoonotic viruses, many originating in wild mammals, pose a serious threat to global public health. Peter Daszak and colleagues create a comprehensive database of mammalian host–virus relationships, which they analyse to determine patterns of virus and zoonotic virus distribution in mammals. They identify various factors that influence the number and diversity of viruses that infect a given species as well as factors that predict the proportion of zoonotic viruses per species. In doing so, they identify mammalian species and geographic locations where novel zoonoses are likely to be found.
The majority of human emerging infectious diseases are zoonotic, with viruses that originate in wild mammals of particular concern (for example, HIV, Ebola and SARS)
1
,
2
,
3
. Understanding patterns of viral diversity in wildlife and determinants of successful cross-species transmission, or spillover, are therefore key goals for pandemic surveillance programs
4
. However, few analytical tools exist to identify which host species are likely to harbour the next human virus, or which viruses can cross species boundaries
5
,
6
,
7
. Here we conduct a comprehensive analysis of mammalian host–virus relationships and show that both the total number of viruses that infect a given species and the proportion likely to be zoonotic are predictable. After controlling for research effort, the proportion of zoonotic viruses per species is predicted by phylogenetic relatedness to humans, host taxonomy and human population within a species range—which may reflect human–wildlife contact. We demonstrate that bats harbour a significantly higher proportion of zoonotic viruses than all other mammalian orders. We also identify the taxa and geographic regions with the largest estimated number of ‘missing viruses’ and ‘missing zoonoses’ and therefore of highest value for future surveillance. We then show that phylogenetic host breadth and other viral traits are significant predictors of zoonotic potential, providing a novel framework to assess if a newly discovered mammalian virus could infect people. |
|---|---|
| AbstractList | Analysis of a comprehensive database of mammalian host-virus relationships reveals that both the total number of viruses that infect a given species and the proportion likely to be zoonotic are predictable and that this enables identification of mammalian species and geographic locations where novel zoonoses are likely to be found. The majority of human emerging infectious diseases are zoonotic, with viruses that originate in wild mammals of particular concern (for example, HIV, Ebola and SARS). Understanding patterns of viral diversity in wildlife and determinants of successful cross-species transmission, or spillover, are therefore key goals for pandemic surveillance programs. However, few analytical tools exist to identify which host species are likely to harbour the next human virus, or which viruses can cross species boundaries. Here we conduct a comprehensive analysis of mammalian host-virus relationships and show that both the total number of viruses that infect a given species and the proportion likely to be zoonotic are predictable. After controlling for research effort, the proportion of zoonotic viruses per species is predicted by phylogenetic relatedness to humans, host taxonomy and human population within a species range-which may reflect human-wildlife contact. We demonstrate that bats harbour a significantly higher proportion of zoonotic viruses than all other mammalian orders. We also identify the taxa and geographic regions with the largest estimated number of 'missing viruses' and 'missing zoonoses' and therefore of highest value for future surveillance. We then show that phylogenetic host breadth and other viral traits are significant predictors of zoonotic potential, providing a novel framework to assess if a newly discovered mammalian virus could infect people. Analysis of a comprehensive database of mammalian host–virus relationships reveals that both the total number of viruses that infect a given species and the proportion likely to be zoonotic are predictable and that this enables identification of mammalian species and geographic locations where novel zoonoses are likely to be found. Zoonotic virus distribution patterns Zoonotic viruses, many originating in wild mammals, pose a serious threat to global public health. Peter Daszak and colleagues create a comprehensive database of mammalian host–virus relationships, which they analyse to determine patterns of virus and zoonotic virus distribution in mammals. They identify various factors that influence the number and diversity of viruses that infect a given species as well as factors that predict the proportion of zoonotic viruses per species. In doing so, they identify mammalian species and geographic locations where novel zoonoses are likely to be found. The majority of human emerging infectious diseases are zoonotic, with viruses that originate in wild mammals of particular concern (for example, HIV, Ebola and SARS) 1 , 2 , 3 . Understanding patterns of viral diversity in wildlife and determinants of successful cross-species transmission, or spillover, are therefore key goals for pandemic surveillance programs 4 . However, few analytical tools exist to identify which host species are likely to harbour the next human virus, or which viruses can cross species boundaries 5 , 6 , 7 . Here we conduct a comprehensive analysis of mammalian host–virus relationships and show that both the total number of viruses that infect a given species and the proportion likely to be zoonotic are predictable. After controlling for research effort, the proportion of zoonotic viruses per species is predicted by phylogenetic relatedness to humans, host taxonomy and human population within a species range—which may reflect human–wildlife contact. We demonstrate that bats harbour a significantly higher proportion of zoonotic viruses than all other mammalian orders. We also identify the taxa and geographic regions with the largest estimated number of ‘missing viruses’ and ‘missing zoonoses’ and therefore of highest value for future surveillance. We then show that phylogenetic host breadth and other viral traits are significant predictors of zoonotic potential, providing a novel framework to assess if a newly discovered mammalian virus could infect people. Analysis of a comprehensive database of mammalian host–virus relationships reveals that both the total number of viruses that infect a given species and the proportion likely to be zoonotic are predictable and that this enables identification of mammalian species and geographic locations where novel zoonoses are likely to be found. Zoonotic viruses, many originating in wild mammals, pose a serious threat to global public health. Peter Daszak and colleagues create a comprehensive database of mammalian host–virus relationships, which they analyse to determine patterns of virus and zoonotic virus distribution in mammals. They identify various factors that influence the number and diversity of viruses that infect a given species as well as factors that predict the proportion of zoonotic viruses per species. In doing so, they identify mammalian species and geographic locations where novel zoonoses are likely to be found. The majority of human emerging infectious diseases are zoonotic, with viruses that originate in wild mammals of particular concern (for example, HIV, Ebola and SARS) 1 , 2 , 3 . Understanding patterns of viral diversity in wildlife and determinants of successful cross-species transmission, or spillover, are therefore key goals for pandemic surveillance programs 4 . However, few analytical tools exist to identify which host species are likely to harbour the next human virus, or which viruses can cross species boundaries 5 , 6 , 7 . Here we conduct a comprehensive analysis of mammalian host–virus relationships and show that both the total number of viruses that infect a given species and the proportion likely to be zoonotic are predictable. After controlling for research effort, the proportion of zoonotic viruses per species is predicted by phylogenetic relatedness to humans, host taxonomy and human population within a species range—which may reflect human–wildlife contact. We demonstrate that bats harbour a significantly higher proportion of zoonotic viruses than all other mammalian orders. We also identify the taxa and geographic regions with the largest estimated number of ‘missing viruses’ and ‘missing zoonoses’ and therefore of highest value for future surveillance. We then show that phylogenetic host breadth and other viral traits are significant predictors of zoonotic potential, providing a novel framework to assess if a newly discovered mammalian virus could infect people. The majority of human emerging infectious diseases are zoonotic, with viruses that originate in wild mammals of particular concern (for example, HIV, Ebola and SARS). Understanding patterns of viral diversity in wildlife and determinants of successful cross-species transmission, or spillover, are therefore key goals for pandemic surveillance programs. However, few analytical tools exist to identify which host species are likely to harbour the next human virus, or which viruses can cross species boundaries. Here we conduct a comprehensive analysis of mammalian host-virus relationships and show that both the total number of viruses that infect a given species and the proportion likely to be zoonotic are predictable. After controlling for research effort, the proportion of zoonotic viruses per species is predicted by phylogenetic relatedness to humans, host taxonomy and human population within a species range-which may reflect human-wildlife contact. We demonstrate that bats harbour a significantly higher proportion of zoonotic viruses than all other mammalian orders. We also identify the taxa and geographic regions with the largest estimated number of 'missing viruses' and 'missing zoonoses' and therefore of highest value for future surveillance. We then show that phylogenetic host breadth and other viral traits are significant predictors of zoonotic potential, providing a novel framework to assess if a newly discovered mammalian virus could infect people.The majority of human emerging infectious diseases are zoonotic, with viruses that originate in wild mammals of particular concern (for example, HIV, Ebola and SARS). Understanding patterns of viral diversity in wildlife and determinants of successful cross-species transmission, or spillover, are therefore key goals for pandemic surveillance programs. However, few analytical tools exist to identify which host species are likely to harbour the next human virus, or which viruses can cross species boundaries. Here we conduct a comprehensive analysis of mammalian host-virus relationships and show that both the total number of viruses that infect a given species and the proportion likely to be zoonotic are predictable. After controlling for research effort, the proportion of zoonotic viruses per species is predicted by phylogenetic relatedness to humans, host taxonomy and human population within a species range-which may reflect human-wildlife contact. We demonstrate that bats harbour a significantly higher proportion of zoonotic viruses than all other mammalian orders. We also identify the taxa and geographic regions with the largest estimated number of 'missing viruses' and 'missing zoonoses' and therefore of highest value for future surveillance. We then show that phylogenetic host breadth and other viral traits are significant predictors of zoonotic potential, providing a novel framework to assess if a newly discovered mammalian virus could infect people. |
| Audience | Academic |
| Author | Olival, Kevin J. Bogich, Tiffany L. Daszak, Peter Ross, Noam Hosseini, Parviez R. Zambrana-Torrelio, Carlos |
| Author_xml | – sequence: 1 givenname: Kevin J. surname: Olival fullname: Olival, Kevin J. email: olival@ecohealthalliance.org organization: EcoHealth Alliance – sequence: 2 givenname: Parviez R. surname: Hosseini fullname: Hosseini, Parviez R. organization: EcoHealth Alliance – sequence: 3 givenname: Carlos surname: Zambrana-Torrelio fullname: Zambrana-Torrelio, Carlos organization: EcoHealth Alliance – sequence: 4 givenname: Noam surname: Ross fullname: Ross, Noam organization: EcoHealth Alliance – sequence: 5 givenname: Tiffany L. surname: Bogich fullname: Bogich, Tiffany L. organization: EcoHealth Alliance – sequence: 6 givenname: Peter surname: Daszak fullname: Daszak, Peter email: daszak@ecohealthalliance.org organization: EcoHealth Alliance |
| BackLink | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28636590$$D View this record in MEDLINE/PubMed |
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| Snippet | Analysis of a comprehensive database of mammalian host–virus relationships reveals that both the total number of viruses that infect a given species and the... The majority of human emerging infectious diseases are zoonotic, with viruses that originate in wild mammals of particular concern (for example, HIV, Ebola and... Analysis of a comprehensive database of mammalian host-virus relationships reveals that both the total number of viruses that infect a given species and the... |
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| SubjectTerms | 631/158/851 631/181/757 631/326/421 692/499 692/699/255/2514 Analysis Animals Bats Biodiversity Diseases Distribution Forecasts and trends HIV Host Specificity Host-Pathogen Interactions Host-virus relationships Human immunodeficiency virus Human populations Humanities and Social Sciences Humans Identification and classification Infectious diseases letter Mammals Mammals - virology multidisciplinary Observations Pandemics Phylogenetics Phylogeny Physiological aspects Science Statistics Surveillance Taxonomy Viral diseases Viruses Viruses - isolation & purification Viruses - pathogenicity Wildlife Zoonoses Zoonoses - epidemiology Zoonoses - virology |
| Title | Host and viral traits predict zoonotic spillover from mammals |
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