Evaluating the Effectiveness of Social Distancing Interventions to Delay or Flatten the Epidemic Curve of Coronavirus Disease

• Published in: Emerging infectious diseases Vol. 26; no. 8; pp. 1740 - 1748
• Main Authors: Matrajt, Laura, Leung, Tiffany
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: United States U.S. National Center for Infectious Diseases 01.08.2020; Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
• Subjects: 2019 novel coronavirus disease; Adolescent; Adult; Adults; Age Factors; Age groups; Aged; Aged, 80 and over; Analysis; Betacoronavirus - pathogenicity; Child; Child, Preschool; Cities; Clinical Laboratory Techniques - methods; Communicable Disease Control - methods; Communicable Disease Control - statistics & numerical data; Contact Tracing - statistics & numerical data; Coronavirus Infections - diagnosis; Coronavirus Infections - epidemiology; Coronavirus Infections - mortality; Coronavirus Infections - prevention & control; Coronaviruses; COVID-19; COVID-19 Testing; Disease transmission; Effectiveness of Social Distancing Interventions to Delay or Flatten the Epidemic Curve of Coronavirus Disease; Epidemics; Expedited; Fatalities; Female; Hospitalization - statistics & numerical data; Humans; Incidence; Infant; Infant, Newborn; Infectious Disease Incubation Period; Intervention; Male; Middle Aged; Models, Statistical; Older people; Pandemics - prevention & control; Patient Isolation - methods; Patient Isolation - statistics & numerical data; Physical Distancing; Pneumonia, Viral - diagnosis; Pneumonia, Viral - epidemiology; Pneumonia, Viral - mortality; Pneumonia, Viral - prevention & control; Population; respiratory infections; SARS; SARS-CoV-2; Severe acute respiratory syndrome; Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2; Severity of Illness Index; Social distancing; Social distancing (Public health); Survival Analysis; United States - epidemiology; United States; Cities; United States > US; Europe; viruses; nonpharmaceutical interventions; SARS; coronavirus; zoonoses; respiratory infections; COVID-19; SARS-CoV-2; severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2; social distancing interventions; mathematical model; 2019 novel coronavirus disease; coronavirus disease; disease transmission
• DOI: 10.3201/eid2608.201093
• ISSN: 1080-6040; 1080-6059

By April 2, 2020, >1 million persons worldwide were infected with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2. We used a mathematical model to investigate the effectiveness of social distancing interventions in a mid-sized city. Interventions reduced contacts of adults >60 years of age, adults 20-59 years of age, and children <19 years of age for 6 weeks. Our results suggest interventions started earlier in the epidemic delay the epidemic curve and interventions started later flatten the epidemic curve. We noted that, while social distancing interventions were in place, most new cases, hospitalizations, and deaths were averted, even with modest reductions in contact among adults. However, when interventions ended, the epidemic rebounded. Our models suggest that social distancing can provide crucial time to increase healthcare capacity but must occur in conjunction with testing and contact tracing of all suspected cases to mitigate virus transmission.