Inferring the causes of the three waves of the 1918 influenza pandemic in England and Wales

• Published in: Proceedings of the Royal Society. B, Biological sciences Vol. 280; no. 1766; p. 20131345
• Main Authors: He, Daihai, Dushoff, Jonathan, Day, Troy, Ma, Junling, Earn, David J. D.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: England The Royal Society 07.09.2013
• Subjects: Behavioural Response; Disease Outbreaks; England - epidemiology; Humans; Incidence; Influenza, Human - epidemiology; Influenza, Human - mortality; Iterated Filtering; Models, Theoretical; Pandemic Influenza; School Closure; Schools; Seasons; Spanish Flu; Temperature; Time Factors; Wales - epidemiology; Weather; England; Wales; British Isles, England; British Isles, Wales; pandemic influenza; weather; behavioural response; school closure; iterated filtering; Spanish flu

Past influenza pandemics appear to be characterized by multiple waves of incidence, but the mechanisms that account for this phenomenon remain unclear. We propose a simple epidemic model, which incorporates three factors that might contribute to the generation of multiple waves: (i) schools opening...