Impacts of climate change on the future of biodiversity

• Published in: Ecology letters Vol. 15; no. 4; pp. 365 - 377
• Main Authors: Bellard, Céline, Bertelsmeier, Cleo, Leadley, Paul, Thuiller, Wilfried, Courchamp, Franck
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Oxford, UK Blackwell Publishing Ltd 01.04.2012; Blackwell; Wiley
• Subjects: Animal and plant ecology; Animal, plant and microbial ecology; Biodiversity; Biodiversity loss; Biological and medical sciences; Climate Change; Climate effects; Climatology. Bioclimatology. Climate change; Conservation of Natural Resources; Earth, ocean, space; Ecology, environment; Ecosystem; ecosystems; Environmental impact; Exact sciences and technology; External geophysics; extinction; Fundamental and applied biological sciences. Psychology; General aspects; Life Sciences; Mass extinctions; Meteorology; Models, Theoretical; phenology; physiology; Population Dynamics; Species extinction; species extinctions; Dynamical climatology; Climate change; Biodiversity; Species extinction; species extinctions; climate change
• ISSN: 1461-023X; 1461-0248; 1461-0248
• DOI: 10.1111/j.1461-0248.2011.01736.x

Ecology Letters (2012) 15: 365–377 Many studies in recent years have investigated the effects of climate change on the future of biodiversity. In this review, we first examine the different possible effects of climate change that can operate at individual, population, species, community, ecosystem and biome scales, notably showing that species can respond to climate change challenges by shifting their climatic niche along three non‐exclusive axes: time (e.g. phenology), space (e.g. range) and self (e.g. physiology). Then, we present the principal specificities and caveats of the most common approaches used to estimate future biodiversity at global and sub‐continental scales and we synthesise their results. Finally, we highlight several challenges for future research both in theoretical and applied realms. Overall, our review shows that current estimates are very variable, depending on the method, taxonomic group, biodiversity loss metrics, spatial scales and time periods considered. Yet, the majority of models indicate alarming consequences for biodiversity, with the worst‐case scenarios leading to extinction rates that would qualify as the sixth mass extinction in the history of the earth.