Estimation of chronic kidney disease incidence from prevalence and mortality data in American Indians with type 2 diabetes
The objective was to estimate chronic kidney disease (CKD) incidence rates from prevalence and mortality data, and compare the estimates with observed (true) incidence rates in a well-characterized population with diabetes. Pima Indians aged 20 years and older with type 2 diabetes were followed from...
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| Published in | PloS one Vol. 12; no. 2; p. e0171027 |
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| Main Authors | , , , , |
| Format | Journal Article |
| Language | English |
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Public Library of Science
06.02.2017
Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
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| Abstract | The objective was to estimate chronic kidney disease (CKD) incidence rates from prevalence and mortality data, and compare the estimates with observed (true) incidence rates in a well-characterized population with diabetes. Pima Indians aged 20 years and older with type 2 diabetes were followed from 1982 through 2007. CKD was defined by estimated GFR (eGFR) <60 ml/min/1.72 m2 or albumin-to-creatinine ratio (ACR) ≥30 mg/g. True CKD incidence and mortality rates were computed for the whole study period, and prevalence for the intervals 1982-1994 and 1995-2007. Estimated age-sex stratified CKD incidence rates were computed using illness-death models of the observed prevalences, and of the whole-period mortality rate ratio of CKD to non-CKD persons. Among 1201 participants, 616 incident events of CKD occurred during a median follow-up of 5.6 years. Observed CKD prevalence was 56.9% (95%CI 53.7-60.0) and 48.0% (95%CI 45.2-50.8) in women; 54.0% (95%CI 49.9-58.1) and 49.6% (95%CI 46.0-53.3) in men, across the two periods. Mortality rate was 2.5 (95%CI 1.9-3.3) times as high in women with CKD and 1.6 (95%CI 1.3-2.1) times as high in men with CKD, compared to women or men without CKD. In women, estimated CKD incidence increased linearly from 25.6 (95%CI 4.2-53.0) to 128.6 (95%CI 77.1-196.6) with each 5-year age group up to 69 years, and to 99.8 (95%CI 38.7-204.7) at age ≥70. In men, estimated CKD incidence increased form 28.5 (95%CI 3.8-71.2) at age 20-24 years to 118.7 (95%CI 23.6-336.7) at age ≥70. Age-sex-stratified estimated incidence reflected the magnitude and directional trend of the true incidence and were similar to the true incidence rates (p>0.05 for difference) except for age 20-24 in women (p = 0.008) and age 25-29 in men (p = 0.002). In conclusion, the estimated and observed incidence rates of CKD agree well over 25 years of observation in this well characterized population with type 2 diabetes. |
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| AbstractList | The objective was to estimate chronic kidney disease (CKD) incidence rates from prevalence and mortality data, and compare the estimates with observed (true) incidence rates in a well-characterized population with diabetes. Pima Indians aged 20 years and older with type 2 diabetes were followed from 1982 through 2007. CKD was defined by estimated GFR (eGFR) <60 ml/min/1.72 m2 or albumin-to-creatinine ratio (ACR) ≥30 mg/g. True CKD incidence and mortality rates were computed for the whole study period, and prevalence for the intervals 1982–1994 and 1995–2007. Estimated age-sex stratified CKD incidence rates were computed using illness-death models of the observed prevalences, and of the whole-period mortality rate ratio of CKD to non-CKD persons. Among 1201 participants, 616 incident events of CKD occurred during a median follow-up of 5.6 years. Observed CKD prevalence was 56.9% (95%CI 53.7–60.0) and 48.0% (95%CI 45.2–50.8) in women; 54.0% (95%CI 49.9–58.1) and 49.6% (95%CI 46.0–53.3) in men, across the two periods. Mortality rate was 2.5 (95%CI 1.9–3.3) times as high in women with CKD and 1.6 (95%CI 1.3–2.1) times as high in men with CKD, compared to women or men without CKD. In women, estimated CKD incidence increased linearly from 25.6 (95%CI 4.2–53.0) to 128.6 (95%CI 77.1–196.6) with each 5-year age group up to 69 years, and to 99.8 (95%CI 38.7–204.7) at age ≥70. In men, estimated CKD incidence increased form 28.5 (95%CI 3.8–71.2) at age 20–24 years to 118.7 (95%CI 23.6–336.7) at age ≥70. Age-sex-stratified estimated incidence reflected the magnitude and directional trend of the true incidence and were similar to the true incidence rates (p>0.05 for difference) except for age 20–24 in women (p = 0.008) and age 25–29 in men (p = 0.002). In conclusion, the estimated and observed incidence rates of CKD agree well over 25 years of observation in this well characterized population with type 2 diabetes. The objective was to estimate chronic kidney disease (CKD) incidence rates from prevalence and mortality data, and compare the estimates with observed (true) incidence rates in a well-characterized population with diabetes. Pima Indians aged 20 years and older with type 2 diabetes were followed from 1982 through 2007. CKD was defined by estimated GFR (eGFR) <60 ml/min/1.72 m2 or albumin-to-creatinine ratio (ACR) ≥30 mg/g. True CKD incidence and mortality rates were computed for the whole study period, and prevalence for the intervals 1982-1994 and 1995-2007. Estimated age-sex stratified CKD incidence rates were computed using illness-death models of the observed prevalences, and of the whole-period mortality rate ratio of CKD to non-CKD persons. Among 1201 participants, 616 incident events of CKD occurred during a median follow-up of 5.6 years. Observed CKD prevalence was 56.9% (95%CI 53.7-60.0) and 48.0% (95%CI 45.2-50.8) in women; 54.0% (95%CI 49.9-58.1) and 49.6% (95%CI 46.0-53.3) in men, across the two periods. Mortality rate was 2.5 (95%CI 1.9-3.3) times as high in women with CKD and 1.6 (95%CI 1.3-2.1) times as high in men with CKD, compared to women or men without CKD. In women, estimated CKD incidence increased linearly from 25.6 (95%CI 4.2-53.0) to 128.6 (95%CI 77.1-196.6) with each 5-year age group up to 69 years, and to 99.8 (95%CI 38.7-204.7) at age ≥70. In men, estimated CKD incidence increased form 28.5 (95%CI 3.8-71.2) at age 20-24 years to 118.7 (95%CI 23.6-336.7) at age ≥70. Age-sex-stratified estimated incidence reflected the magnitude and directional trend of the true incidence and were similar to the true incidence rates (p>0.05 for difference) except for age 20-24 in women (p = 0.008) and age 25-29 in men (p = 0.002). In conclusion, the estimated and observed incidence rates of CKD agree well over 25 years of observation in this well characterized population with type 2 diabetes.The objective was to estimate chronic kidney disease (CKD) incidence rates from prevalence and mortality data, and compare the estimates with observed (true) incidence rates in a well-characterized population with diabetes. Pima Indians aged 20 years and older with type 2 diabetes were followed from 1982 through 2007. CKD was defined by estimated GFR (eGFR) <60 ml/min/1.72 m2 or albumin-to-creatinine ratio (ACR) ≥30 mg/g. True CKD incidence and mortality rates were computed for the whole study period, and prevalence for the intervals 1982-1994 and 1995-2007. Estimated age-sex stratified CKD incidence rates were computed using illness-death models of the observed prevalences, and of the whole-period mortality rate ratio of CKD to non-CKD persons. Among 1201 participants, 616 incident events of CKD occurred during a median follow-up of 5.6 years. Observed CKD prevalence was 56.9% (95%CI 53.7-60.0) and 48.0% (95%CI 45.2-50.8) in women; 54.0% (95%CI 49.9-58.1) and 49.6% (95%CI 46.0-53.3) in men, across the two periods. Mortality rate was 2.5 (95%CI 1.9-3.3) times as high in women with CKD and 1.6 (95%CI 1.3-2.1) times as high in men with CKD, compared to women or men without CKD. In women, estimated CKD incidence increased linearly from 25.6 (95%CI 4.2-53.0) to 128.6 (95%CI 77.1-196.6) with each 5-year age group up to 69 years, and to 99.8 (95%CI 38.7-204.7) at age ≥70. In men, estimated CKD incidence increased form 28.5 (95%CI 3.8-71.2) at age 20-24 years to 118.7 (95%CI 23.6-336.7) at age ≥70. Age-sex-stratified estimated incidence reflected the magnitude and directional trend of the true incidence and were similar to the true incidence rates (p>0.05 for difference) except for age 20-24 in women (p = 0.008) and age 25-29 in men (p = 0.002). In conclusion, the estimated and observed incidence rates of CKD agree well over 25 years of observation in this well characterized population with type 2 diabetes. The objective was to estimate chronic kidney disease (CKD) incidence rates from prevalence and mortality data, and compare the estimates with observed (true) incidence rates in a well-characterized population with diabetes. Pima Indians aged 20 years and older with type 2 diabetes were followed from 1982 through 2007. CKD was defined by estimated GFR (eGFR) <60 ml/min/1.72 m2 or albumin-to-creatinine ratio (ACR) greater than or equal to 30 mg/g. True CKD incidence and mortality rates were computed for the whole study period, and prevalence for the intervals 1982-1994 and 1995-2007. Estimated age-sex stratified CKD incidence rates were computed using illness-death models of the observed prevalences, and of the whole-period mortality rate ratio of CKD to non-CKD persons. Among 1201 participants, 616 incident events of CKD occurred during a median follow-up of 5.6 years. Observed CKD prevalence was 56.9% (95%CI 53.7-60.0) and 48.0% (95%CI 45.2-50.8) in women; 54.0% (95%CI 49.9-58.1) and 49.6% (95%CI 46.0-53.3) in men, across the two periods. Mortality rate was 2.5 (95%CI 1.9-3.3) times as high in women with CKD and 1.6 (95%CI 1.3-2.1) times as high in men with CKD, compared to women or men without CKD. In women, estimated CKD incidence increased linearly from 25.6 (95%CI 4.2-53.0) to 128.6 (95%CI 77.1-196.6) with each 5-year age group up to 69 years, and to 99.8 (95%CI 38.7-204.7) at age greater than or equal to 70. In men, estimated CKD incidence increased form 28.5 (95%CI 3.8-71.2) at age 20-24 years to 118.7 (95%CI 23.6-336.7) at age greater than or equal to 70. Age-sex-stratified estimated incidence reflected the magnitude and directional trend of the true incidence and were similar to the true incidence rates (p>0.05 for difference) except for age 20-24 in women (p = 0.008) and age 25-29 in men (p = 0.002). In conclusion, the estimated and observed incidence rates of CKD agree well over 25 years of observation in this well characterized population with type 2 diabetes. The objective was to estimate chronic kidney disease (CKD) incidence rates from prevalence and mortality data, and compare the estimates with observed (true) incidence rates in a well-characterized population with diabetes. Pima Indians aged 20 years and older with type 2 diabetes were followed from 1982 through 2007. CKD was defined by estimated GFR (eGFR) <60 ml/min/1.72 m 2 or albumin-to-creatinine ratio (ACR) ≥30 mg/g. True CKD incidence and mortality rates were computed for the whole study period, and prevalence for the intervals 1982–1994 and 1995–2007. Estimated age-sex stratified CKD incidence rates were computed using illness-death models of the observed prevalences, and of the whole-period mortality rate ratio of CKD to non-CKD persons. Among 1201 participants, 616 incident events of CKD occurred during a median follow-up of 5.6 years. Observed CKD prevalence was 56.9% (95%CI 53.7–60.0) and 48.0% (95%CI 45.2–50.8) in women; 54.0% (95%CI 49.9–58.1) and 49.6% (95%CI 46.0–53.3) in men, across the two periods. Mortality rate was 2.5 (95%CI 1.9–3.3) times as high in women with CKD and 1.6 (95%CI 1.3–2.1) times as high in men with CKD, compared to women or men without CKD. In women, estimated CKD incidence increased linearly from 25.6 (95%CI 4.2–53.0) to 128.6 (95%CI 77.1–196.6) with each 5-year age group up to 69 years, and to 99.8 (95%CI 38.7–204.7) at age ≥70. In men, estimated CKD incidence increased form 28.5 (95%CI 3.8–71.2) at age 20–24 years to 118.7 (95%CI 23.6–336.7) at age ≥70. Age-sex-stratified estimated incidence reflected the magnitude and directional trend of the true incidence and were similar to the true incidence rates (p>0.05 for difference) except for age 20–24 in women (p = 0.008) and age 25–29 in men (p = 0.002). In conclusion, the estimated and observed incidence rates of CKD agree well over 25 years of observation in this well characterized population with type 2 diabetes. The objective was to estimate chronic kidney disease (CKD) incidence rates from prevalence and mortality data, and compare the estimates with observed (true) incidence rates in a well-characterized population with diabetes. Pima Indians aged 20 years and older with type 2 diabetes were followed from 1982 through 2007. CKD was defined by estimated GFR (eGFR) 0.05 for difference) except for age 20-24 in women (p = 0.008) and age 25-29 in men (p = 0.002). In conclusion, the estimated and observed incidence rates of CKD agree well over 25 years of observation in this well characterized population with type 2 diabetes. The objective was to estimate chronic kidney disease (CKD) incidence rates from prevalence and mortality data, and compare the estimates with observed (true) incidence rates in a well-characterized population with diabetes. Pima Indians aged 20 years and older with type 2 diabetes were followed from 1982 through 2007. CKD was defined by estimated GFR (eGFR) <60 ml/min/1.72 m 2 or albumin-to-creatinine ratio (ACR) ≥30 mg/g. True CKD incidence and mortality rates were computed for the whole study period, and prevalence for the intervals 1982–1994 and 1995–2007. Estimated age-sex stratified CKD incidence rates were computed using illness-death models of the observed prevalences, and of the whole-period mortality rate ratio of CKD to non-CKD persons. Among 1201 participants, 616 incident events of CKD occurred during a median follow-up of 5.6 years. Observed CKD prevalence was 56.9% (95%CI 53.7–60.0) and 48.0% (95%CI 45.2–50.8) in women; 54.0% (95%CI 49.9–58.1) and 49.6% (95%CI 46.0–53.3) in men, across the two periods. Mortality rate was 2.5 (95%CI 1.9–3.3) times as high in women with CKD and 1.6 (95%CI 1.3–2.1) times as high in men with CKD, compared to women or men without CKD. In women, estimated CKD incidence increased linearly from 25.6 (95%CI 4.2–53.0) to 128.6 (95%CI 77.1–196.6) with each 5-year age group up to 69 years, and to 99.8 (95%CI 38.7–204.7) at age ≥70. In men, estimated CKD incidence increased form 28.5 (95%CI 3.8–71.2) at age 20–24 years to 118.7 (95%CI 23.6–336.7) at age ≥70. Age-sex-stratified estimated incidence reflected the magnitude and directional trend of the true incidence and were similar to the true incidence rates (p>0.05 for difference) except for age 20–24 in women (p = 0.008) and age 25–29 in men (p = 0.002). In conclusion, the estimated and observed incidence rates of CKD agree well over 25 years of observation in this well characterized population with type 2 diabetes. |
| Audience | Academic |
| Author | Pavkov, Meda E. Hoyer, Annika Brinks, Ralph Nelson, Robert G. Vijayakumar, Pavithra |
| AuthorAffiliation | 1 National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Phoenix, Arizona, United States of America The University of Tokyo, JAPAN 3 Division for Diabetes Translation, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America 2 Institute for Biometry and Epidemiology, German Diabetes Center Duesseldorf, Germany |
| AuthorAffiliation_xml | – name: 1 National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Phoenix, Arizona, United States of America – name: 2 Institute for Biometry and Epidemiology, German Diabetes Center Duesseldorf, Germany – name: The University of Tokyo, JAPAN – name: 3 Division for Diabetes Translation, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America |
| Author_xml | – sequence: 1 givenname: Pavithra surname: Vijayakumar fullname: Vijayakumar, Pavithra – sequence: 2 givenname: Annika surname: Hoyer fullname: Hoyer, Annika – sequence: 3 givenname: Robert G. surname: Nelson fullname: Nelson, Robert G. – sequence: 4 givenname: Ralph surname: Brinks fullname: Brinks, Ralph – sequence: 5 givenname: Meda E. orcidid: 0000-0002-6203-1772 surname: Pavkov fullname: Pavkov, Meda E. |
| BackLink | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28166298$$D View this record in MEDLINE/PubMed |
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| Notes | ObjectType-Article-1 SourceType-Scholarly Journals-1 ObjectType-Feature-2 content type line 14 content type line 23 Conceptualization: RB AH MEP.Data curation: PV MEP.Formal analysis: PV MEP AH RB.Investigation: RGN MEP.Methodology: PV MEP AH.Project administration: MEP RB.Resources: RGN PV.Software: RB PV MEP AH.Supervision: MEP RB.Validation: PV MEP AH.Visualization: MEP PV AH RB RGN.Writing – original draft: PV MEP AH.Writing – review & editing: MEP PV AH RB RGN. Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist. Current address: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America |
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| SubjectTerms | Adult Age Algorithms American Indians Arizona - epidemiology Biology and Life Sciences Biometrics Chronic illnesses Chronic kidney failure Complications and side effects Computation Creatinine Diabetes Diabetes mellitus Diabetes mellitus (non-insulin dependent) Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2 - complications Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2 - epidemiology Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2 - history Disease control Epidemiology Epidermal growth factor receptors Estimates Female Health aspects History, 20th Century History, 21st Century Humans Incidence Indians, North American Kidney diseases Kidneys Longitudinal Studies Male Medicine and Health Sciences Men Middle Aged Models, Statistical Mortality Native Americans Ordinary differential equations Patient outcomes People and Places Population Prevalence Renal Insufficiency, Chronic - epidemiology Renal Insufficiency, Chronic - etiology Renal Insufficiency, Chronic - history Risk factors Sex Studies Type 2 diabetes Urine |
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| Title | Estimation of chronic kidney disease incidence from prevalence and mortality data in American Indians with type 2 diabetes |
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