Review article: Drought as a continuum – memory effects in interlinked hydrological, ecological, and social systems
Droughts are often long-lasting phenomena, without a distinct start or end and with impacts cascading across sectors and systems, creating long-term legacies. Nevertheless, our current perceptions and management of droughts and their impacts are often event-based, which can limit the effective asses...
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Published in | Natural hazards and earth system sciences Vol. 24; no. 9; pp. 3173 - 3205 |
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Main Authors | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
Format | Journal Article |
Language | English |
Published |
Katlenburg-Lindau
Copernicus GmbH
23.09.2024
Copernicus Publications |
Subjects | |
Online Access | Get full text |
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Abstract | Droughts are often long-lasting phenomena, without a distinct start or end and with impacts cascading across sectors and systems, creating long-term legacies. Nevertheless, our current perceptions and management of droughts and their impacts are often event-based, which can limit the effective assessment of drought risks and reduction of drought impacts. Here, we advocate for changing this perspective and viewing drought as a hydrological–ecological–social continuum. We take a systems theory perspective and focus on how “memory” causes feedback and interactions between parts of the interconnected systems at different timescales. We first discuss the characteristics of the drought continuum with a focus on the hydrological, ecological, and social systems separately, and then we study the system of systems. Our analysis is based on a review of the literature and a study of five cases: Chile, the Colorado River basin in the USA, northeast Brazil, Kenya, and the Rhine River basin in northwest Europe. We find that the memories of past dry and wet periods, carried by both bio-physical (e.g. groundwater, vegetation) and social systems (e.g. people, governance), influence how future drought risk manifests. We identify four archetypes of drought dynamics: impact and recovery, slow resilience building, gradual collapse, and high resilience–big shock. The interactions between the hydrological, ecological, and social systems result in systems shifting between these types, which plays out differently in the five case studies. We call for more research on drought preconditions and recovery in different systems, on dynamics cascading between systems and triggering system changes, and on dynamic vulnerability and maladaptation. Additionally, we advocate for more continuous monitoring of drought hazards and impacts, modelling tools that better incorporate memories and adaptation responses, and management strategies that increase societal and institutional memory. This will help us to better deal with the complex hydrological–ecological–social drought continuum and identify effective pathways to adaptation and mitigation. |
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AbstractList | Droughts are often long-lasting phenomena, without a distinct start or end and with impacts cascading across sectors and systems, creating long-term legacies. Nevertheless, our current perceptions and management of droughts and their impacts are often event-based, which can limit the effective assessment of drought risks and reduction of drought impacts. Here, we advocate for changing this perspective and viewing drought as a hydrological–ecological–social continuum. We take a systems theory perspective and focus on how “memory” causes feedback and interactions between parts of the interconnected systems at different timescales. We first discuss the characteristics of the drought continuum with a focus on the hydrological, ecological, and social systems separately, and then we study the system of systems. Our analysis is based on a review of the literature and a study of five cases: Chile, the Colorado River basin in the USA, northeast Brazil, Kenya, and the Rhine River basin in northwest Europe. We find thatthe memories of past dry and wet periods, carried by both bio-physical (e.g. groundwater, vegetation) and social systems (e.g. people, governance), influence how future drought risk manifests. We identify four archetypes of drought dynamics: impact and recovery, slow resilience building, gradual collapse, and high resilience–big shock. The interactions between the hydrological, ecological, and social systems result in systems shifting between these types, which plays out differently in the five case studies. We call for more research on drought preconditions and recovery in different systems, on dynamics cascading between systems and triggering system changes, and on dynamic vulnerability and maladaptation. Additionally, we advocate for more continuous monitoring of drought hazards and impacts, modelling tools that better incorporate memories and adaptation responses, and management strategies that increase societal and institutional memory. This will help us to better deal with the complex hydrological–ecological–social drought continuum and identify effective pathways to adaptation and mitigation. Droughts are often long-lasting phenomena, without a distinct start or end and with impacts cascading across sectors and systems, creating long-term legacies. Nevertheless, our current perceptions and management of droughts and their impacts are often event-based, which can limit the effective assessment of drought risks and reduction of drought impacts. Here, we advocate for changing this perspective and viewing drought as a hydrological–ecological–social continuum. We take a systems theory perspective and focus on how “memory” causes feedback and interactions between parts of the interconnected systems at different timescales. We first discuss the characteristics of the drought continuum with a focus on the hydrological, ecological, and social systems separately, and then we study the system of systems. Our analysis is based on a review of the literature and a study of five cases: Chile, the Colorado River basin in the USA, northeast Brazil, Kenya, and the Rhine River basin in northwest Europe. We find that the memories of past dry and wet periods, carried by both bio-physical (e.g. groundwater, vegetation) and social systems (e.g. people, governance), influence how future drought risk manifests. We identify four archetypes of drought dynamics: impact and recovery, slow resilience building, gradual collapse, and high resilience–big shock. The interactions between the hydrological, ecological, and social systems result in systems shifting between these types, which plays out differently in the five case studies. We call for more research on drought preconditions and recovery in different systems, on dynamics cascading between systems and triggering system changes, and on dynamic vulnerability and maladaptation. Additionally, we advocate for more continuous monitoring of drought hazards and impacts, modelling tools that better incorporate memories and adaptation responses, and management strategies that increase societal and institutional memory. This will help us to better deal with the complex hydrological–ecological–social drought continuum and identify effective pathways to adaptation and mitigation. Droughts are often long-lasting phenomena, without a distinct start or end and with impacts cascading across sectors and systems, creating long-term legacies. Nevertheless, our current perceptions and management of droughts and their impacts are often event-based, which can limit the effective assessment of drought risks and reduction of drought impacts. Here, we advocate for changing this perspective and viewing drought as a hydrological–ecological–social continuum. We take a systems theory perspective and focus on how “memory” causes feedback and interactions between parts of the interconnected systems at different timescales. We first discuss the characteristics of the drought continuum with a focus on the hydrological, ecological, and social systems separately, and then we study the system of systems. Our analysis is based on a review of the literature and a study of five cases: Chile, the Colorado River basin in the USA, northeast Brazil, Kenya, and the Rhine River basin in northwest Europe. We find that the memories of past dry and wet periods, carried by both bio-physical (e.g. groundwater, vegetation) and social systems (e.g. people, governance), influence how future drought risk manifests. We identify four archetypes of drought dynamics: impact and recovery, slow resilience building, gradual collapse, and high resilience–big shock. The interactions between the hydrological, ecological, and social systems result in systems shifting between these types, which plays out differently in the five case studies. We call for more research on drought preconditions and recovery in different systems, on dynamics cascading between systems and triggering system changes, and on dynamic vulnerability and maladaptation. Additionally, we advocate for more continuous monitoring of drought hazards and impacts, modelling tools that better incorporate memories and adaptation responses, and management strategies that increase societal and institutional memory. This will help us to better deal with the complex hydrological–ecological–social drought continuum and identify effective pathways to adaptation and mitigation. |
Audience | Academic |
Author | Bastos, Ana Pechlivanidis, Ilias G. Hassaballah, Khalid E. A. Mård, Johanna Shyrokaya, Anastasiya Streefkerk, Ileen N. Di Baldassarre, Giuliano Wu, Minchao Teutschbein, Claudia Vico, Giulia Ridolfi, Elena Trambauer, Patricia Du, Yiheng Werner, Micha Tootoonchi, Faranak Garcia, Margaret Khatami, Sina Aich, Valentin Ribeiro Neto, Germano G. Barendrecht, Marlies H. Tootoonchi, Roshanak de Vries, Franciska T. Koehler, Johanna K. L. Wens, Marthe L. K. Ionita, Monica Roy, Tirthankar Kchouk, Sarra Biella, Riccardo Boisier, Juan P. Maskey, Shreedhar Stefanski, Robert Mendoza, Heidi D. Nagavciuc, Viorica Mwangi, Moses N. Matanó, Alessia Weesie, Ruben Galleguillos, Mauricio Luce, Charles H. Cavalcante, Louise Van Loon, Anne F. Alvarez-Garreton, Camila Koebele, Elizabeth A. Garreaud, René |
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BackLink | https://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-537683$$DView record from Swedish Publication Index https://lup.lub.lu.se/record/9ae4300b-e9bb-40e4-8d21-238b8c891927$$DView record from Swedish Publication Index oai:portal.research.lu.se:publications/9ae4300b-e9bb-40e4-8d21-238b8c891927$$DView record from Swedish Publication Index https://res.slu.se/id/publ/132686$$DView record from Swedish Publication Index |
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CorporateAuthor | MERGE: ModElling the Regional and Global Earth system Strategiska forskningsområden (SFO) Dept of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science Strategic research areas (SRA) Lunds universitet Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten Profile areas and other strong research environments BECC: Biodiversity and Ecosystem services in a Changing Climate Faculty of Science Lund University Profilområden och andra starka forskningsmiljöer Institutionen för naturgeografi och ekosystemvetenskap Sveriges lantbruksuniversitet |
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Snippet | Droughts are often long-lasting phenomena, without a distinct start or end and with impacts cascading across sectors and systems, creating long-term legacies.... |
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SubjectTerms | Adaptation Drought Drought monitoring Earth and Related Environmental Sciences Ecological effects Ecosystems Environmental impact Environmental risk Geosciences, Multidisciplinary Geovetenskap och miljövetenskap Geovetenskap och relaterad miljövetenskap Groundwater Hazard identification Hazard mitigation Hydrologi Hydrologic drought Hydrology Literature reviews Mitigation Multidisciplinär geovetenskap Natural Sciences Naturvetenskap Oceanografi, hydrologi och vattenresurser Oceanography, Hydrology and Water Resources Oceanography, Hydrology, Water Resources Precipitation Recovery Resilience Risk assessment River basins Rivers System of systems Systems theory Vegetation Water shortages Weather hazards |
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Title | Review article: Drought as a continuum – memory effects in interlinked hydrological, ecological, and social systems |
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