Farm-level Autonomous Adaptation of European Agricultural Supply to Climate Change

The impact of climate change on European agriculture is subject to a significant uncertainty, which reflects the intertwined nature of agriculture. This issue involves a large number of processes, ranging from field to global scales, which have not been fully integrated yet. In this study, we intend...

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Published inEcological economics Vol. 87; pp. 1 - 14
Main Authors Leclère, David, Jayet, Pierre-Alain, de Noblet-Ducoudré, Nathalie
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published Amsterdam Elsevier B.V 01.03.2013
Elsevier
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Abstract The impact of climate change on European agriculture is subject to a significant uncertainty, which reflects the intertwined nature of agriculture. This issue involves a large number of processes, ranging from field to global scales, which have not been fully integrated yet. In this study, we intend to help bridging this gap by quantifying the effect of farm-scale autonomous adaptations in response to changes in climate. To do so, we use a modelling framework coupling the STICS generic crop model to the AROPAj microeconomic model of European agricultural supply. This study provides a first estimate of the role of such adaptations, consistent at the European scale while detailed across European regions. Farm-scale autonomous adaptations significantly alter the impact of climate change over Europe, by widely alleviating negative impacts on crop yields and gross margins. They significantly increase European production levels. However, they also have an important and heterogeneous impact on irrigation water withdrawals, which exacerbate the differences in ambient atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations among climate change scenarios. ► Farm-scale autonomous adaptation of agriculture has been weakly studied. ► We assess its role in the response of European agriculture to climate change. ► We rely on a modeling framework building upon an interdisciplinary approach. ► Such adaptation alleviates negative impacts on crop yields and gross margins. ► This benefit is at the cost of dramatic rise in irrigation needs.
AbstractList The impact of climate change on European agriculture is subject to a significant uncertainty, which reflects the intertwined nature of agriculture. This issue involves a large number of processes, ranging from field to global scales, which have not been fully integrated yet. In this study, we intend to help bridging this gap by quantifying the effect of farm-scale autonomous adaptations in response to changes in climate. To do so, we use a modelling framework coupling the STICS generic crop model to the AROPAj microeconomic model of European agricultural supply. This study provides a first estimate of the role of such adaptations, consistent at the European scale while detailed across European regions. Farm-scale autonomous adaptations significantly alter the impact of climate change over Europe, by widely alleviating negative impacts on crop yields and gross margins. They significantly increase European production levels. However, they also have an important and heterogeneous impact on irrigation water withdrawals, which exacerbate the differences in ambient atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations among climate change scenarios. All rights reserved, Elsevier
The impact of climate change on European agriculture is subject to a significant uncertainty, which reflects the intertwined nature of agriculture. This issue involves a large number of processes, ranging from field to global scales, which have not been fully integrated yet. In this study, we intend to help bridging this gap by quantifying the effect of farm-scale autonomous adaptations in response to changes in climate. To do so, we use a modelling framework coupling the STICS generic crop model to the AROPAj microeconomic model of European agricultural supply. This study provides a first estimate of the role of such adaptations, consistent at the European scale while detailed across European regions. Farm-scale autonomous adaptations significantly alter the impact of climate change over Europe, by widely alleviating negative impacts on crop yields and gross margins. They significantly increase European production levels. However, they also have an important and heterogeneous impact on irrigation water withdrawals, which exacerbate the differences in ambient atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations among climate change scenarios.
The impact of climate change on European agriculture is subject to a significant uncertainty, which reflects the intertwined nature of agriculture. This issue involves a large number of processes, ranging from field to global scales, which have not been fully integrated yet. In this study, we intend to help bridging this gap by quantifying the effect of farm-scale autonomous adaptations in response to changes in climate. To do so, we use a modelling framework coupling the STICS generic crop model to the AROPAj microeconomic model of European agricultural supply. This study provides a first estimate of the role of such adaptations, consistent at the European scale while detailed across European regions. Farm-scale autonomous adaptations significantly alter the impact of climate change over Europe, by widely alleviating negative impacts on crop yields and gross margins. They significantly increase European production levels. However, they also have an important and heterogeneous impact on irrigation water withdrawals, which exacerbate the differences in ambient atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations among climate change scenarios. ► Farm-scale autonomous adaptation of agriculture has been weakly studied. ► We assess its role in the response of European agriculture to climate change. ► We rely on a modeling framework building upon an interdisciplinary approach. ► Such adaptation alleviates negative impacts on crop yields and gross margins. ► This benefit is at the cost of dramatic rise in irrigation needs.
The impact of climate change on European agriculture is subject to a significant uncertainty, which reflects the intertwined nature of agriculture. This issue involves a large number of processes, ranging from field to global scales, which have not been fully integrated yet. In this study, we intend to help bridging this gap by quantifying the effect of farm-scale autonomous adaptations in response to changes in climate. To do so, we use a modelling framework coupling the STICS generic crop model to the AROPAj microeconomic model of European agricultural supply. This study provides a first estimate of the role of such adaptations, consistent at the European scale while detailed across European regions. Farm-scale autonomous adaptations significantly alter the impact of climate change over Europe, by widely alleviating negative impacts on crop yields and gross margins. They significantly increase European production levels. However, they also have an important and heterogeneous impact on irrigation water withdrawals, which exacerbate the differences in ambient atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations among climate change scenarios. [Copyright Elsevier B.V.]
The impact of climate change on European agriculture is subject to a signi cant uncertainty, which re flects the intertwined nature of agriculture. This issue involves a large number of processes, ranging from fi eld to global scales, which have not been fully integrated yet. In this study, we intend to help bridging this gap by quantifying the effect of farm-scale autonomous adaptations in response to changes in climate. To do so, we use a modelling framework coupling the STICS generic crop model to the AROPAj microeconomic model of European agricultural supply. This study provides a fi rst estimate of the role of such adaptations, consistent at the European scale while detailed across European regions. Farm-scale autonomous adaptations signifi cantly alter the impact of climate change over Europe, by widely alleviating negative impacts on crop yields and gross margins. They signifi cantly increase European production levels. However, they also have an important and heterogeneous impact on irrigation water withdrawals, which exacerbate the differences in ambient atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations among climate change scenarios.
Author Leclère, David
de Noblet-Ducoudré, Nathalie
Jayet, Pierre-Alain
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  organization: CNRS, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement/IPSL, UMR CEA/CNRS/UVSQ, CEA-Orme des Merisiers, F-91191 Gif Sur Yvette, France
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Keywords Climate change
Autonomous adaptation
Europe
Agriculture
Water use efficiency
Residual impact
Modeling
Environment economy
Ecology
European
Agroecosystem
Dynamical climatology
Adaptation
Language English
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Snippet The impact of climate change on European agriculture is subject to a significant uncertainty, which reflects the intertwined nature of agriculture. This issue...
The impact of climate change on European agriculture is subject to a signi cant uncertainty, which re flects the intertwined nature of agriculture. This issue...
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SubjectTerms Agricultural sciences
Agricultural systems
Agriculture
Agronomy. Soil science and plant productions
Animal, plant and microbial ecology
Applied ecology
Autonomous adaptation
Biological and medical sciences
carbon dioxide
Carbon emissions
Climate
Climate change
crop models
crop yield
Environmental economics
Europe
Fundamental and applied biological sciences. Psychology
General agroecology
General agroecology. Agricultural and farming systems. Agricultural development. Rural area planning. Landscaping
General agronomy. Plant production
Generalities. Agricultural and farming systems. Agricultural development
Global warming
Irrigation
irrigation water
Life Sciences
Modeling
Modelling
Production
profits and margins
Residual impact
Uncertainty
Water
Water use efficiency
Title Farm-level Autonomous Adaptation of European Agricultural Supply to Climate Change
URI https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2012.11.010
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https://hal.science/hal-01001278
Volume 87
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