Farm-level Autonomous Adaptation of European Agricultural Supply to Climate Change
The impact of climate change on European agriculture is subject to a significant uncertainty, which reflects the intertwined nature of agriculture. This issue involves a large number of processes, ranging from field to global scales, which have not been fully integrated yet. In this study, we intend...
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Published in | Ecological economics Vol. 87; pp. 1 - 14 |
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Main Authors | , , |
Format | Journal Article |
Language | English |
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Amsterdam
Elsevier B.V
01.03.2013
Elsevier |
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Abstract | The impact of climate change on European agriculture is subject to a significant uncertainty, which reflects the intertwined nature of agriculture. This issue involves a large number of processes, ranging from field to global scales, which have not been fully integrated yet. In this study, we intend to help bridging this gap by quantifying the effect of farm-scale autonomous adaptations in response to changes in climate. To do so, we use a modelling framework coupling the STICS generic crop model to the AROPAj microeconomic model of European agricultural supply. This study provides a first estimate of the role of such adaptations, consistent at the European scale while detailed across European regions. Farm-scale autonomous adaptations significantly alter the impact of climate change over Europe, by widely alleviating negative impacts on crop yields and gross margins. They significantly increase European production levels. However, they also have an important and heterogeneous impact on irrigation water withdrawals, which exacerbate the differences in ambient atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations among climate change scenarios.
► Farm-scale autonomous adaptation of agriculture has been weakly studied. ► We assess its role in the response of European agriculture to climate change. ► We rely on a modeling framework building upon an interdisciplinary approach. ► Such adaptation alleviates negative impacts on crop yields and gross margins. ► This benefit is at the cost of dramatic rise in irrigation needs. |
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AbstractList | The impact of climate change on European agriculture is subject to a significant uncertainty, which reflects the intertwined nature of agriculture. This issue involves a large number of processes, ranging from field to global scales, which have not been fully integrated yet. In this study, we intend to help bridging this gap by quantifying the effect of farm-scale autonomous adaptations in response to changes in climate. To do so, we use a modelling framework coupling the STICS generic crop model to the AROPAj microeconomic model of European agricultural supply. This study provides a first estimate of the role of such adaptations, consistent at the European scale while detailed across European regions. Farm-scale autonomous adaptations significantly alter the impact of climate change over Europe, by widely alleviating negative impacts on crop yields and gross margins. They significantly increase European production levels. However, they also have an important and heterogeneous impact on irrigation water withdrawals, which exacerbate the differences in ambient atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations among climate change scenarios. All rights reserved, Elsevier The impact of climate change on European agriculture is subject to a significant uncertainty, which reflects the intertwined nature of agriculture. This issue involves a large number of processes, ranging from field to global scales, which have not been fully integrated yet. In this study, we intend to help bridging this gap by quantifying the effect of farm-scale autonomous adaptations in response to changes in climate. To do so, we use a modelling framework coupling the STICS generic crop model to the AROPAj microeconomic model of European agricultural supply. This study provides a first estimate of the role of such adaptations, consistent at the European scale while detailed across European regions. Farm-scale autonomous adaptations significantly alter the impact of climate change over Europe, by widely alleviating negative impacts on crop yields and gross margins. They significantly increase European production levels. However, they also have an important and heterogeneous impact on irrigation water withdrawals, which exacerbate the differences in ambient atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations among climate change scenarios. The impact of climate change on European agriculture is subject to a significant uncertainty, which reflects the intertwined nature of agriculture. This issue involves a large number of processes, ranging from field to global scales, which have not been fully integrated yet. In this study, we intend to help bridging this gap by quantifying the effect of farm-scale autonomous adaptations in response to changes in climate. To do so, we use a modelling framework coupling the STICS generic crop model to the AROPAj microeconomic model of European agricultural supply. This study provides a first estimate of the role of such adaptations, consistent at the European scale while detailed across European regions. Farm-scale autonomous adaptations significantly alter the impact of climate change over Europe, by widely alleviating negative impacts on crop yields and gross margins. They significantly increase European production levels. However, they also have an important and heterogeneous impact on irrigation water withdrawals, which exacerbate the differences in ambient atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations among climate change scenarios. ► Farm-scale autonomous adaptation of agriculture has been weakly studied. ► We assess its role in the response of European agriculture to climate change. ► We rely on a modeling framework building upon an interdisciplinary approach. ► Such adaptation alleviates negative impacts on crop yields and gross margins. ► This benefit is at the cost of dramatic rise in irrigation needs. The impact of climate change on European agriculture is subject to a significant uncertainty, which reflects the intertwined nature of agriculture. This issue involves a large number of processes, ranging from field to global scales, which have not been fully integrated yet. In this study, we intend to help bridging this gap by quantifying the effect of farm-scale autonomous adaptations in response to changes in climate. To do so, we use a modelling framework coupling the STICS generic crop model to the AROPAj microeconomic model of European agricultural supply. This study provides a first estimate of the role of such adaptations, consistent at the European scale while detailed across European regions. Farm-scale autonomous adaptations significantly alter the impact of climate change over Europe, by widely alleviating negative impacts on crop yields and gross margins. They significantly increase European production levels. However, they also have an important and heterogeneous impact on irrigation water withdrawals, which exacerbate the differences in ambient atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations among climate change scenarios. [Copyright Elsevier B.V.] The impact of climate change on European agriculture is subject to a signi cant uncertainty, which re flects the intertwined nature of agriculture. This issue involves a large number of processes, ranging from fi eld to global scales, which have not been fully integrated yet. In this study, we intend to help bridging this gap by quantifying the effect of farm-scale autonomous adaptations in response to changes in climate. To do so, we use a modelling framework coupling the STICS generic crop model to the AROPAj microeconomic model of European agricultural supply. This study provides a fi rst estimate of the role of such adaptations, consistent at the European scale while detailed across European regions. Farm-scale autonomous adaptations signifi cantly alter the impact of climate change over Europe, by widely alleviating negative impacts on crop yields and gross margins. They signifi cantly increase European production levels. However, they also have an important and heterogeneous impact on irrigation water withdrawals, which exacerbate the differences in ambient atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations among climate change scenarios. |
Author | Leclère, David de Noblet-Ducoudré, Nathalie Jayet, Pierre-Alain |
Author_xml | – sequence: 1 givenname: David surname: Leclère fullname: Leclère, David email: david.leclere@lsce.ipsl.fr organization: CNRS, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement/IPSL, UMR CEA/CNRS/UVSQ, CEA-Orme des Merisiers, F-91191 Gif Sur Yvette, France – sequence: 2 givenname: Pierre-Alain surname: Jayet fullname: Jayet, Pierre-Alain organization: UMR Economie Publique INRA/AgroParisTech, Avenue Lucien Brétignière, 78850 Thiverval-Grignon, France – sequence: 3 givenname: Nathalie surname: de Noblet-Ducoudré fullname: de Noblet-Ducoudré, Nathalie organization: CNRS, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement/IPSL, UMR CEA/CNRS/UVSQ, CEA-Orme des Merisiers, F-91191 Gif Sur Yvette, France |
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Keywords | Climate change Autonomous adaptation Europe Agriculture Water use efficiency Residual impact Modeling Environment economy Ecology European Agroecosystem Dynamical climatology Adaptation |
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Snippet | The impact of climate change on European agriculture is subject to a significant uncertainty, which reflects the intertwined nature of agriculture. This issue... The impact of climate change on European agriculture is subject to a signi cant uncertainty, which re flects the intertwined nature of agriculture. This issue... |
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SubjectTerms | Agricultural sciences Agricultural systems Agriculture Agronomy. Soil science and plant productions Animal, plant and microbial ecology Applied ecology Autonomous adaptation Biological and medical sciences carbon dioxide Carbon emissions Climate Climate change crop models crop yield Environmental economics Europe Fundamental and applied biological sciences. Psychology General agroecology General agroecology. Agricultural and farming systems. Agricultural development. Rural area planning. Landscaping General agronomy. Plant production Generalities. Agricultural and farming systems. Agricultural development Global warming Irrigation irrigation water Life Sciences Modeling Modelling Production profits and margins Residual impact Uncertainty Water Water use efficiency |
Title | Farm-level Autonomous Adaptation of European Agricultural Supply to Climate Change |
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Volume | 87 |
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