Predicting the dynamic distribution of Sphagnum bogs in China under climate change since the last interglacial period
Sphagnum bogs possess irreplaceable ecological and economic value, and they are scarce in China, with a fragmented distribution. Based on 19 high-resolution bioclimatic environmental datasets and 71 bog center point locations, we employed a maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) to reconstruct and predict t...
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Published in | PloS one Vol. 15; no. 4; p. e0230969 |
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Language | English |
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06.04.2020
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Abstract | Sphagnum bogs possess irreplaceable ecological and economic value, and they are scarce in China, with a fragmented distribution. Based on 19 high-resolution bioclimatic environmental datasets and 71 bog center point locations, we employed a maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) to reconstruct and predict the spatial-temporal geographical distribution patterns of Sphagnum bogs from the last interglacial (LIG) period to two typical CO2 representative concentration pathway scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP8.5) in the future. We further computed the migratory paths of the distribution center points. Finally, a jackknife test was used to uncover the crucial environmental factors restricting the geographical distribution of the bogs. Our data indicated that the MaxEnt niche model had a high simulation precision with an area under the ROC curve value of 0.957. Spatially, the suitable bog habitats are currently centralized in northeastern China, including the Greater Khingan Mountains, the Lesser Khingan Mountains, and the Changbai Mountains, as well as peripheral areas of the Sichuan Basin. Temporally, the contours of Sphagnum bogs were similar to the present and rendered from the last glacial maximum (LMG) period, and had much more total area than the current. The total area in LIG was nearly the same as the current because of the similar climate. It was worth noting that there would be a reduction of the total area in the future. Loss of area occurred at the edges of bogs, especially under RCP8.5. The distribution center of bogs will shift to the northwest in the immediate future. The precipitation of driest month, the mean temperature of warmest quarter and the precipitation of warmest quarter were identified as crucial climatic factors affecting the distribution of Sphagnum bogs. Overall, our research provides scientific evidence for the long-term protection and effective management of these rare, precious natural resources and suggestions for in situ conservation. |
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AbstractList | Sphagnum bogs possess irreplaceable ecological and economic value, and they are scarce in China, with a fragmented distribution. Based on 19 high-resolution bioclimatic environmental datasets and 71 bog center point locations, we employed a maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) to reconstruct and predict the spatial-temporal geographical distribution patterns of Sphagnum bogs from the last interglacial (LIG) period to two typical CO2 representative concentration pathway scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP8.5) in the future. We further computed the migratory paths of the distribution center points. Finally, a jackknife test was used to uncover the crucial environmental factors restricting the geographical distribution of the bogs. Our data indicated that the MaxEnt niche model had a high simulation precision with an area under the ROC curve value of 0.957. Spatially, the suitable bog habitats are currently centralized in northeastern China, including the Greater Khingan Mountains, the Lesser Khingan Mountains, and the Changbai Mountains, as well as peripheral areas of the Sichuan Basin. Temporally, the contours of Sphagnum bogs were similar to the present and rendered from the last glacial maximum (LMG) period, and had much more total area than the current. The total area in LIG was nearly the same as the current because of the similar climate. It was worth noting that there would be a reduction of the total area in the future. Loss of area occurred at the edges of bogs, especially under RCP8.5. The distribution center of bogs will shift to the northwest in the immediate future. The precipitation of driest month, the mean temperature of warmest quarter and the precipitation of warmest quarter were identified as crucial climatic factors affecting the distribution of Sphagnum bogs. Overall, our research provides scientific evidence for the long-term protection and effective management of these rare, precious natural resources and suggestions for in situ conservation. Sphagnum bogs possess irreplaceable ecological and economic value, and they are scarce in China, with a fragmented distribution. Based on 19 high-resolution bioclimatic environmental datasets and 71 bog center point locations, we employed a maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) to reconstruct and predict the spatial-temporal geographical distribution patterns of Sphagnum bogs from the last interglacial (LIG) period to two typical CO.sub.2 representative concentration pathway scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP8.5) in the future. We further computed the migratory paths of the distribution center points. Finally, a jackknife test was used to uncover the crucial environmental factors restricting the geographical distribution of the bogs. Our data indicated that the MaxEnt niche model had a high simulation precision with an area under the ROC curve value of 0.957. Spatially, the suitable bog habitats are currently centralized in northeastern China, including the Greater Khingan Mountains, the Lesser Khingan Mountains, and the Changbai Mountains, as well as peripheral areas of the Sichuan Basin. Temporally, the contours of Sphagnum bogs were similar to the present and rendered from the last glacial maximum (LMG) period, and had much more total area than the current. The total area in LIG was nearly the same as the current because of the similar climate. It was worth noting that there would be a reduction of the total area in the future. Loss of area occurred at the edges of bogs, especially under RCP8.5. The distribution center of bogs will shift to the northwest in the immediate future. The precipitation of driest month, the mean temperature of warmest quarter and the precipitation of warmest quarter were identified as crucial climatic factors affecting the distribution of Sphagnum bogs. Overall, our research provides scientific evidence for the long-term protection and effective management of these rare, precious natural resources and suggestions for in situ conservation. Sphagnum bogs possess irreplaceable ecological and economic value, and they are scarce in China, with a fragmented distribution. Based on 19 high-resolution bioclimatic environmental datasets and 71 bog center point locations, we employed a maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) to reconstruct and predict the spatial-temporal geographical distribution patterns of Sphagnum bogs from the last interglacial (LIG) period to two typical CO 2 representative concentration pathway scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP8.5) in the future. We further computed the migratory paths of the distribution center points. Finally, a jackknife test was used to uncover the crucial environmental factors restricting the geographical distribution of the bogs. Our data indicated that the MaxEnt niche model had a high simulation precision with an area under the ROC curve value of 0.957. Spatially, the suitable bog habitats are currently centralized in northeastern China, including the Greater Khingan Mountains, the Lesser Khingan Mountains, and the Changbai Mountains, as well as peripheral areas of the Sichuan Basin. Temporally, the contours of Sphagnum bogs were similar to the present and rendered from the last glacial maximum (LMG) period, and had much more total area than the current. The total area in LIG was nearly the same as the current because of the similar climate. It was worth noting that there would be a reduction of the total area in the future. Loss of area occurred at the edges of bogs, especially under RCP8.5. The distribution center of bogs will shift to the northwest in the immediate future. The precipitation of driest month, the mean temperature of warmest quarter and the precipitation of warmest quarter were identified as crucial climatic factors affecting the distribution of Sphagnum bogs. Overall, our research provides scientific evidence for the long-term protection and effective management of these rare, precious natural resources and suggestions for in situ conservation. |
Audience | Academic |
Author | Xu, Yueyue Tang, Luyan Cong, Mingyang Yang, Wenjing Jian, Minfei |
AuthorAffiliation | 5 Key Laboratory of Poyang Lake Wetland and Watershed Research, Ministry of Education, Jiangxi Normal University, Nanchang, Jiangxi Province, China 3 School of Economics & Management, Nanchang University, Nanchang, Jiangxi Province, China 2 Jiangxi Provincial Key Lab of Protection and Utilization of Subtropical Plant Resources, Jiangxi Normal University, Nanchang, Jiangxi Province, China 4 College of Life Science, Guizhou Normal University, Guiyang, Guizhou Province, China Hellenic Agricultural Organization - Demeter, GREECE 1 Analytical & Testing Center, Jiangxi Normal University, Nanchang, Jiangxi Province, China |
AuthorAffiliation_xml | – name: 4 College of Life Science, Guizhou Normal University, Guiyang, Guizhou Province, China – name: 3 School of Economics & Management, Nanchang University, Nanchang, Jiangxi Province, China – name: 1 Analytical & Testing Center, Jiangxi Normal University, Nanchang, Jiangxi Province, China – name: Hellenic Agricultural Organization - Demeter, GREECE – name: 5 Key Laboratory of Poyang Lake Wetland and Watershed Research, Ministry of Education, Jiangxi Normal University, Nanchang, Jiangxi Province, China – name: 2 Jiangxi Provincial Key Lab of Protection and Utilization of Subtropical Plant Resources, Jiangxi Normal University, Nanchang, Jiangxi Province, China |
Author_xml | – sequence: 1 givenname: Mingyang orcidid: 0000-0001-9336-9576 surname: Cong fullname: Cong, Mingyang organization: Jiangxi Provincial Key Lab of Protection and Utilization of Subtropical Plant Resources, Jiangxi Normal University, Nanchang, Jiangxi Province, China – sequence: 2 givenname: Yueyue surname: Xu fullname: Xu, Yueyue organization: School of Economics & Management, Nanchang University, Nanchang, Jiangxi Province, China – sequence: 3 givenname: Luyan surname: Tang fullname: Tang, Luyan organization: College of Life Science, Guizhou Normal University, Guiyang, Guizhou Province, China – sequence: 4 givenname: Wenjing surname: Yang fullname: Yang, Wenjing organization: Key Laboratory of Poyang Lake Wetland and Watershed Research, Ministry of Education, Jiangxi Normal University, Nanchang, Jiangxi Province, China – sequence: 5 givenname: Minfei orcidid: 0000-0002-1529-2689 surname: Jian fullname: Jian, Minfei organization: Jiangxi Provincial Key Lab of Protection and Utilization of Subtropical Plant Resources, Jiangxi Normal University, Nanchang, Jiangxi Province, China |
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Copyright | COPYRIGHT 2020 Public Library of Science 2020 Cong et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (the “License”), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. Notwithstanding the ProQuest Terms and Conditions, you may use this content in accordance with the terms of the License. 2020 Cong et al 2020 Cong et al |
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Snippet | Sphagnum bogs possess irreplaceable ecological and economic value, and they are scarce in China, with a fragmented distribution. Based on 19 high-resolution... Sphagnum bogs possess irreplaceable ecological and economic value, and they are scarce in China, with a fragmented distribution. Based on 19 high-resolution... |
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SubjectTerms | Bioclimatology Biology and Life Sciences Bogs Carbon Carbon cycle Carbon dioxide Climate change Computer simulation Conservation Datasets Distribution centres Distribution patterns Earth Sciences Ecology and Environmental Sciences Ecosystems Entropy Environmental factors Geographical distribution Geography Glacial periods Global temperature changes Habitats Interglacial periods Last Glacial Maximum Maximum entropy Mean temperatures Mountains Natural resources Niches Peatlands People and Places Precipitation Resource conservation Resource management Social Sciences Sphagnum Variables |
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Title | Predicting the dynamic distribution of Sphagnum bogs in China under climate change since the last interglacial period |
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