Detecting the impact of temperature on transmission of Zika, dengue, and chikungunya using mechanistic models

Recent epidemics of Zika, dengue, and chikungunya have heightened the need to understand the seasonal and geographic range of transmission by Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus mosquitoes. We use mechanistic transmission models to derive predictions for how the probability and magnitude of transmissio...

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Published inPLoS neglected tropical diseases Vol. 11; no. 4; p. e0005568
Main Authors Mordecai, Erin A, Cohen, Jeremy M, Evans, Michelle V, Gudapati, Prithvi, Johnson, Leah R, Lippi, Catherine A, Miazgowicz, Kerri, Murdock, Courtney C, Rohr, Jason R, Ryan, Sadie J, Savage, Van, Shocket, Marta S, Stewart Ibarra, Anna, Thomas, Matthew B, Weikel, Daniel P
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published United States Public Library of Science 27.04.2017
Public Library of Science (PLoS)
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Summary:Recent epidemics of Zika, dengue, and chikungunya have heightened the need to understand the seasonal and geographic range of transmission by Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus mosquitoes. We use mechanistic transmission models to derive predictions for how the probability and magnitude of transmission for Zika, chikungunya, and dengue change with mean temperature, and we show that these predictions are well matched by human case data. Across all three viruses, models and human case data both show that transmission occurs between 18-34°C with maximal transmission occurring in a range from 26-29°C. Controlling for population size and two socioeconomic factors, temperature-dependent transmission based on our mechanistic model is an important predictor of human transmission occurrence and incidence. Risk maps indicate that tropical and subtropical regions are suitable for extended seasonal or year-round transmission, but transmission in temperate areas is limited to at most three months per year even if vectors are present. Such brief transmission windows limit the likelihood of major epidemics following disease introduction in temperate zones.
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The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.
Conceptualization: EAM MBT VS SJR LRJ ASI JRR.Data curation: JMC MVE PG KM CCM MS DPW EAM CAL.Formal analysis: EAM MVE PG KM MSS DPW LRJ CAL.Funding acquisition: EAM JRR SJR MBT ASI LRJ VS CCM.Investigation: JMC MVE PG KM CCM MS DPW CAL EAM.Methodology: EAM LRJ SJR MSS.Project administration: EAM.Software: LRJ EAM MSS MVE DPW.Supervision: EAM MBT JRR VS LRJ SJR ASI CCM.Validation: LRJ EAM.Visualization: JMC SJR LRJ EAM.Writing – original draft: EAM.Writing – review & editing: EAM JMC MVE PG LRJ CAL KM CCM JRR SJR VS MSS ASI MBT DPW.
ISSN:1935-2735
1935-2727
1935-2735
DOI:10.1371/journal.pntd.0005568