Attributing physical and biological impacts to anthropogenic climate change
Significant changes in physical and biological systems are occurring on all continents and in most oceans, with a concentration of available data in Europe and North America. Most of these changes are in the direction expected with warming temperature. Here we show that these changes in natural syst...
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| Published in | Nature Vol. 453; no. 7193; pp. 353 - 357 |
|---|---|
| Main Authors | , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
| Format | Journal Article |
| Language | English |
| Published |
London
Nature Publishing Group UK
15.05.2008
Nature Publishing Nature Publishing Group |
| Subjects | |
| Online Access | Get full text |
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| Abstract | Significant changes in physical and biological systems are occurring on all continents and in most oceans, with a concentration of available data in Europe and North America. Most of these changes are in the direction expected with warming temperature. Here we show that these changes in natural systems since at least 1970 are occurring in regions of observed temperature increases, and that these temperature increases at continental scales cannot be explained by natural climate variations alone. Given the conclusions from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report that most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-twentieth century is very likely to be due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations, and furthermore that it is likely that there has been significant anthropogenic warming over the past 50 years averaged over each continent except Antarctica, we conclude that anthropogenic climate change is having a significant impact on physical and biological systems globally and in some continents.
Climate change: Human influence tracked
Many natural biological and physical systems are undergoing changes consistent with a gradual rise in temperature. Such changes have occurred on all continents and in most oceans since at least 1970. An Article in this issue is the first to formally link the observed changes to human-induced climate change. The study is a meta-analysis that uses a larger database than the recent IPCC report, and it takes account of land-use change and other complications. The authors conclude that anthropogenic climate change is affecting physical and biological systems globally. But as Francis Zwiers and Gabriele Hegerl point out in News & Views, this proof based on the principle of joint attribution stops short of the statistical certainty that would be provided by 'end-to-end' models linking human activity directly to the observed changes, rather than via effects on the climate system.
Natural physical and biological systems change in regions of temperature increase. Such changes have occurred on all continents and in most oceans since at least 1970. This paper presents statistical evidence that these changes cannot be explained by natural climate variations alone, and concludes that anthropogenic climate change is affecting physical and biological systems globally and on some continents. |
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| AbstractList | Significant changes in physical and biological systems are occurring on all continents and in most oceans, with a concentration of available data in Europe and North America. Most of these changes are in the direction expected with warming temperature. Here we show that these changes in natural systems since at least 1970 are occurring in regions of observed temperature increases, and that these temperature increases at continental scales cannot be explained by natural climate variations alone. Given the conclusions from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report that most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-twentieth century is very likely to be due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations, and furthermore that it is likely that there has been significant anthropogenic warming over the past 50 years averaged over each continent except Antarctica, we conclude that anthropogenic climate change is having a significant impact on physical and biological systems globally and in some continents. Significant changes in physical and biological systems are occurring on all continents and in most oceans, with a concentration of available data in Europe and North America. Most of these changes are in the direction expected with warming temperature. Here we show that these changes in natural systems since at least 1970 are occurring in regions of observed temperature increases, and that these temperature increases at continental scales cannot be explained by natural climate variations alone. Given the conclusions from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report that most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-twentieth century is very likely to be due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations, and furthermore that it is likely that there has been significant anthropogenic warming over the past 50 years averaged over each continent except Antarctica, we conclude that anthropogenic climate change is having a significant impact on physical and biological systems globally and in some continents. [PUBLICATION ABSTRACT] Significant changes in physical and biological systems are occurring on all continents and in most oceans, with a concentration of available data in Europe and North America. Most of these changes are in the direction expected with warming temperature. Here we show that these changes in natural systems since at least 1970 are occurring in regions of observed temperature increases, and that these temperature increases at continental scales cannot be explained by natural climate variations alone. Given the conclusions from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report that most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-twentieth century is very likely to be due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations, and furthermore that it is likely that there has been significant anthropogenic warming over the past 50 years averaged over each continent except Antarctica, we conclude that anthropogenic climate change is having a significant impact on physical and biological systems globally and in some continents.Significant changes in physical and biological systems are occurring on all continents and in most oceans, with a concentration of available data in Europe and North America. Most of these changes are in the direction expected with warming temperature. Here we show that these changes in natural systems since at least 1970 are occurring in regions of observed temperature increases, and that these temperature increases at continental scales cannot be explained by natural climate variations alone. Given the conclusions from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report that most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-twentieth century is very likely to be due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations, and furthermore that it is likely that there has been significant anthropogenic warming over the past 50 years averaged over each continent except Antarctica, we conclude that anthropogenic climate change is having a significant impact on physical and biological systems globally and in some continents. Significant changes in physical and biological systems are occurring on all continents and in most oceans, with a concentration of available data in Europe and North America. Most of these changes are in the direction expected with warming temperature. Here we show that these changes in natural systems since at least 1970 are occurring in regions of observed temperature increases, and that these temperature increases at continental scales cannot be explained by natural climate variations alone. Given the conclusions from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report that most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-twentieth century is very likely to be due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations, and furthermore that it is likely that there has been significant anthropogenic warming over the past 50 years averaged over each continent except Antarctica, we conclude that anthropogenic climate change is having a significant impact on physical and biological systems globally and in some continents Significant changes in physical and biological systems are occurring on all continents and in most oceans, with a concentration of available data in Europe and North America. Most of these changes are in the direction expected with warming temperature. Here we show that these changes in natural systems since at least 1970 are occurring in regions of observed temperature increases, and that these temperature increases at continental scales cannot be explained by natural climate variations alone. Given the conclusions from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report that most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-twentieth century is very likely to be due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations, and furthermore that it is likely that there has been significant anthropogenic warming over the past 50 years averaged over each continent except Antarctica, we conclude that anthropogenic climate change is having a significant impact on physical and biological systems globally and in some continents. Climate change: Human influence tracked Many natural biological and physical systems are undergoing changes consistent with a gradual rise in temperature. Such changes have occurred on all continents and in most oceans since at least 1970. An Article in this issue is the first to formally link the observed changes to human-induced climate change. The study is a meta-analysis that uses a larger database than the recent IPCC report, and it takes account of land-use change and other complications. The authors conclude that anthropogenic climate change is affecting physical and biological systems globally. But as Francis Zwiers and Gabriele Hegerl point out in News & Views, this proof based on the principle of joint attribution stops short of the statistical certainty that would be provided by 'end-to-end' models linking human activity directly to the observed changes, rather than via effects on the climate system. Natural physical and biological systems change in regions of temperature increase. Such changes have occurred on all continents and in most oceans since at least 1970. This paper presents statistical evidence that these changes cannot be explained by natural climate variations alone, and concludes that anthropogenic climate change is affecting physical and biological systems globally and on some continents. |
| Audience | Academic |
| Author | Rosenzweig, Cynthia Seguin, Bernard Tryjanowski, Piotr Karoly, David Casassa, Gino Rawlins, Samuel Menzel, Annette Wu, Qigang Imeson, Anton Neofotis, Peter Liu, Chunzhen Estrella, Nicole Root, Terry L. Vicarelli, Marta |
| Author_xml | – sequence: 1 givenname: Cynthia surname: Rosenzweig fullname: Rosenzweig, Cynthia email: crosenzweig@giss.nasa.gov organization: NASA/Goddard Institute for Space Studies and Columbia Center for Climate Systems Research, 2800 Broadway, New York, New York 10025, USA – sequence: 2 givenname: David surname: Karoly fullname: Karoly, David organization: School of Earth Sciences, University of Melbourne – sequence: 3 givenname: Marta surname: Vicarelli fullname: Vicarelli, Marta organization: NASA/Goddard Institute for Space Studies and Columbia Center for Climate Systems Research, 2800 Broadway, New York, New York 10025, USA – sequence: 4 givenname: Peter surname: Neofotis fullname: Neofotis, Peter organization: NASA/Goddard Institute for Space Studies and Columbia Center for Climate Systems Research, 2800 Broadway, New York, New York 10025, USA – sequence: 5 givenname: Qigang surname: Wu fullname: Wu, Qigang organization: School of Meteorology, University of Oklahoma, 100 East Boyd Street, Norman, Oklahoma 73019, USA – sequence: 6 givenname: Gino surname: Casassa fullname: Casassa, Gino organization: Centro de Estudios Científicos, Avenida Arturo Prat 514, Casilla 1469, Valdivia, Chile – sequence: 7 givenname: Annette surname: Menzel fullname: Menzel, Annette organization: Center of Life and Food Sciences Weihenstephan, Technical University of Munich, Am Hochanger 13, 85 354 Freising, Germany – sequence: 8 givenname: Terry L. surname: Root fullname: Root, Terry L. organization: Stanford University, Center for Environmental Science and Policy, Stanford, California 94305, USA – sequence: 9 givenname: Nicole surname: Estrella fullname: Estrella, Nicole organization: Center of Life and Food Sciences Weihenstephan, Technical University of Munich, Am Hochanger 13, 85 354 Freising, Germany – sequence: 10 givenname: Bernard surname: Seguin fullname: Seguin, Bernard organization: INRA Unité Agroclim, Site Agroparc, domaine Saint-Paul, F-84914 Avignon Cedex 9, France – sequence: 11 givenname: Piotr surname: Tryjanowski fullname: Tryjanowski, Piotr organization: Department of Behavioural Ecology, Institute of Environmental Biology, Adam Mickiewicz University, Umultowska 89, PL-61–614 Poznan, Poland – sequence: 12 givenname: Chunzhen surname: Liu fullname: Liu, Chunzhen organization: China Water Information Center, Lane 2 Baiguang Road, Beijing 100761, China – sequence: 13 givenname: Samuel surname: Rawlins fullname: Rawlins, Samuel organization: Caribbean Epidemiology Center, 16–18 Jamaica Boulevard, Federation ParkPO Box 164, Port of Spain, Trinadad and Tobago – sequence: 14 givenname: Anton surname: Imeson fullname: Imeson, Anton organization: 3D-Environmental Change, Curtiuslaan 14, 1851 AM, Heiloo, Netherlands |
| BackLink | http://pascal-francis.inist.fr/vibad/index.php?action=getRecordDetail&idt=20321268$$DView record in Pascal Francis https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18480817$$D View this record in MEDLINE/PubMed https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-02668822$$DView record in HAL |
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| CODEN | NATUAS |
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| Keywords | Change detection Regional scope climate warming Spatial analysis Man environment interface biosphere greenhouse gas Dynamical climatology hydrosphere environment impact Human activity global change Planetary scale Observation data Air pollution Cryosphere climate change Anthropogenic factor AGRICULTURAL SYSTEM NATURAL SYSTEMS LAND USE DATABASE OCEAN STATISTICAL METHOD SPATIAL ANALYSES CLIMATE CHANGE GREENHOUSE GAS GLOBAL CHANGE WARMING FOREST SYSTEM |
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| References | SmithTMReynoldsRWA global merged land and sea surface temperature reconstruction based on historical observations (1880–1997)J. Clim.200518202120362005JCli...18.2021S10.1175/JCLI3362.1 DyurgerovMBMeierMFOccasional Paper No. 582005 MotePWHamletAFClarkMPLettenmaierDPDeclining mountain snowpack in western north AmericaBull. Am. Meteorol. Soc.20058639492005BAMS...86...39M10.1175/BAMS-86-1-39 IPCC. (ed.) Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability: Contribution of Working Group II to the Third Assessment Report to the International Panel on Climate Change (Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, UK, 2001) SorvariSKorholaAThompsonRLake diatom response to recent Arctic warming in Finnish LaplandGlob. Change Biol.200281711812002GCBio...8..171S10.1046/j.1365-2486.2002.00463.x MenzelASparksTEstrellaNRoyDBGeographic and temporal variability in phenologyGlob. Ecol. Biogeogr.20061549850410.1111/j.1466-822X.2006.00247.x FrauenfeldOWZhangTBarryRGGilichinskyDInterdecadal changes in seasonal freeze and thaw depths in RussiaJ. Geophys. Res.2004109D051012004JGRD..109.5101F10.1029/2003JD004245 MillyPCDDunneKAVecchiaAVGlobal pattern of trends in streamflow and water availability in a changing climateNature20054383473501:CAS:528:DC%2BD2MXht1WksbfJ2005Natur.438..347M10.1038/nature04312 DaufresneMRogerMCCapraHLamourouxNLong-term changes within the invertebrate and fish communities of the Upper Rhone River: effects of climatic factorsGlob. Change Biol.2004101241402004GCBio..10..124D10.1046/j.1529-8817.2003.00720.x BeaulieuNAllardMThe impact of climate change on an emerging coastline affected by discontinuous permafrost: Manitounuk Strait, northern QuebecCan. J. Earth Sci.200340139314042003CaJES..40.1393B10.1139/e03-056 GiorgiFVariability and trends of sub-continental scale surface climate in the 20th century. Part I: observationsClim. Dyn.20021867569110.1007/s00382-001-0204-x MitchellJFBClimate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change2001695738 RootTLMacMynowskiDPMastrandreaMDSchneiderSHHuman-modified temperatures induce species changes: joint attributionProc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA2005102746574691:CAS:528:DC%2BD2MXkslOnt7g%3D2005PNAS..102.7465R10.1073/pnas.0502286102 ReichertBKBengtssonLOerlemansJRecent glacier retreat exceeds internal variabilityJ. Clim.200215306930812002JCli...15.3069R10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<3069:RGREIV>2.0.CO;2 StottPAAttribution of regional-scale temperature changes to anthropogenic and natural causesGeophys. Res. Lett.20033017282003GeoRL..30.1728S10.1029/2003GL017324 MenzelAEuropean phenological response to climate change matches the warming patternGlob. Change Biol.200612196919762006GCBio..12.1969M10.1111/j.1365-2486.2006.01193.x AsshoffRZotzGKornerCGrowth and phenology of mature temperate forest trees in elevated CO2Glob. Change Biol.2006128488612006GCBio..12..848A10.1111/j.1365-2486.2006.01133.x AtkinsonASiegelVPakhomovERotheryPLong-term decline in krill stock and increase in salps within the Southern OceanNature20044321001031:CAS:528:DC%2BD2cXpt1eit7k%3D2004Natur.432..100A10.1038/nature02996 ParmesanCYoheGA globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systemsNature200342137421:CAS:528:DC%2BD3sXoslM%3D2003Natur.421...37P10.1038/nature01286 OerlemansJExtracting a climate signal from 169 glacier recordsScience20053086756771:CAS:528:DC%2BD2MXjsFykur0%3D2005Sci...308..675O10.1126/science.1107046 RosenzweigCClimate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change200779131 RichardsonAJSchoemanDSClimate impact on plankton ecosystems in the Northeast AtlanticScience2004305160916121:CAS:528:DC%2BD2cXntlGrsr4%3D2004Sci...305.1609R10.1126/science.1100958 RootTLFingerprints of global warming on wild animals and plantsNature200342157601:CAS:528:DC%2BD3sXovVc%3D2003Natur.421...57R10.1038/nature01333 OrvikuKJaagusJKontARatasURivisRIncreasing activity of coastal processes associated with climate change in EstoniaJ. Coast. Res.200319364375 YoshikawaKHinzmanLDShrinking thermokarst ponds and groundwater dynamics in discontinuous permafrost near Council, AlaskaPermafrost Periglac. Process.20031415116010.1002/ppp.451 ParmesanCEcological and evolutionary responses to recent climate changeAnn. Rev. Ecol. Evol. System.20063763766910.1146/annurev.ecolsys.37.091305.110100 HegerlGCClimate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change2007663745 BounouaLDeFriesRCollatzGJSellersPKhanHEffects of land cover conversion on surface climateClim. Change200252296410.1023/A:1013051420309 ForbesDLParkesGSMansonGKKetchLAStorms and shoreline retreat in the southern Gulf of St. LawrenceMar. Geol.20042101692042004MGeol.210..169F10.1016/j.margeo.2004.05.009 O’ReillyCMAlinSRPlisnierPDCohenASMcKeeBAClimate change decreases aquatic ecosystem productivity of Lake Tanganyika, AfricaNature20034247667682003Natur.424..766O10.1038/nature01833 GillettNPWeaverAJZwiersFWFlanniganMDDetecting the effect of climate change on Canadian forest firesGeophys. Res. Lett.200431L182112004GeoRL..3118211G10.1029/2004GL020876 BeaugrandGReidPCLong-term changes in phytoplankton, zooplankton and salmon related to climateGlob. Change Biol.200398018172003GCBio...9..801B10.1046/j.1365-2486.2003.00632.x EdwardsMRichardsonAJImpact of climate change on marine pelagic phenology and trophic mismatchNature20044308818841:CAS:528:DC%2BD2cXmslCnu7k%3D2004Natur.430..881E10.1038/nature02808 IPCC. in Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adapation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (eds, Parry, M. L., Canziani, O. F., Palutikof, J. P., van der Linden, P. J. & Hanson, C. E.) 7–22 (Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, UK, 2007) CayanDRKammerdienerSADettingerMDCaprioJMPetersonDHChanges in the onset of spring in the western United StatesBull. Am. Meteorol. Soc.2001823994152001BAMS...82..399C10.1175/1520-0477(2001)082<0399:CITOOS>2.3.CO;2 IPCC. in Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (eds Solomon, S. D. et al.) (Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, UK, 2007) FeddemaJA comparison of a GCM response to historical anthropogenic land cover change and model sensitivity to uncertainty in present-day land cover representationsClim. Dyn.20052558160910.1007/s00382-005-0038-z BrohanPKennedyJJHarrisITettSFBJonesPDUncertainty estimates in regional and global observed temperature changes: A new data set from 1850J. Geophys. Res.2006111D121062006JGRD..11112106B10.1029/2005JD006548 WuPWoodRStottPHuman influence on increasing Arctic river dischargesGeophys. Res. Lett.200532L027032005GeoRL..32.2703W M Daufresne (BFnature06937_CR11) 2004; 10 J Oerlemans (BFnature06937_CR4) 2005; 308 P Wu (BFnature06937_CR27) 2005; 32 A Menzel (BFnature06937_CR29) 2006; 15 PW Mote (BFnature06937_CR8) 2005; 86 G Beaugrand (BFnature06937_CR21) 2003; 9 DL Forbes (BFnature06937_CR13) 2004; 210 A Atkinson (BFnature06937_CR22) 2004; 432 TL Root (BFnature06937_CR15) 2003; 421 TM Smith (BFnature06937_CR39) 2005; 18 L Bounoua (BFnature06937_CR34) 2002; 52 P Brohan (BFnature06937_CR35) 2006; 111 K Yoshikawa (BFnature06937_CR6) 2003; 14 GC Hegerl (BFnature06937_CR31) 2007 MB Dyurgerov (BFnature06937_CR3) 2005 PCD Milly (BFnature06937_CR26) 2005; 438 N Beaulieu (BFnature06937_CR12) 2003; 40 AJ Richardson (BFnature06937_CR19) 2004; 305 BFnature06937_CR1 K Orviku (BFnature06937_CR14) 2003; 19 BFnature06937_CR30 F Giorgi (BFnature06937_CR36) 2002; 18 S Sorvari (BFnature06937_CR10) 2002; 8 NP Gillett (BFnature06937_CR28) 2004; 31 J Feddema (BFnature06937_CR33) 2005; 25 BK Reichert (BFnature06937_CR25) 2002; 15 C Parmesan (BFnature06937_CR18) 2006; 37 BFnature06937_CR38 C Rosenzweig (BFnature06937_CR2) 2007 A Menzel (BFnature06937_CR17) 2006; 12 M Edwards (BFnature06937_CR20) 2004; 430 R Asshoff (BFnature06937_CR32) 2006; 12 PA Stott (BFnature06937_CR37) 2003; 30 CM O’Reilly (BFnature06937_CR9) 2003; 424 DR Cayan (BFnature06937_CR7) 2001; 82 TL Root (BFnature06937_CR24) 2005; 102 OW Frauenfeld (BFnature06937_CR5) 2004; 109 JFB Mitchell (BFnature06937_CR23) 2001 C Parmesan (BFnature06937_CR16) 2003; 421 18528374 - Nature. 2008 Jun 5;453(7196):720 18480804 - Nature. 2008 May 15;453(7193):296-7 |
| References_xml | – reference: DyurgerovMBMeierMFOccasional Paper No. 582005 – reference: CayanDRKammerdienerSADettingerMDCaprioJMPetersonDHChanges in the onset of spring in the western United StatesBull. Am. Meteorol. Soc.2001823994152001BAMS...82..399C10.1175/1520-0477(2001)082<0399:CITOOS>2.3.CO;2 – reference: DaufresneMRogerMCCapraHLamourouxNLong-term changes within the invertebrate and fish communities of the Upper Rhone River: effects of climatic factorsGlob. Change Biol.2004101241402004GCBio..10..124D10.1046/j.1529-8817.2003.00720.x – reference: AtkinsonASiegelVPakhomovERotheryPLong-term decline in krill stock and increase in salps within the Southern OceanNature20044321001031:CAS:528:DC%2BD2cXpt1eit7k%3D2004Natur.432..100A10.1038/nature02996 – reference: MenzelAEuropean phenological response to climate change matches the warming patternGlob. Change Biol.200612196919762006GCBio..12.1969M10.1111/j.1365-2486.2006.01193.x – reference: IPCC. (ed.) Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability: Contribution of Working Group II to the Third Assessment Report to the International Panel on Climate Change (Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, UK, 2001) – reference: OerlemansJExtracting a climate signal from 169 glacier recordsScience20053086756771:CAS:528:DC%2BD2MXjsFykur0%3D2005Sci...308..675O10.1126/science.1107046 – reference: WuPWoodRStottPHuman influence on increasing Arctic river dischargesGeophys. Res. Lett.200532L027032005GeoRL..32.2703W – reference: BrohanPKennedyJJHarrisITettSFBJonesPDUncertainty estimates in regional and global observed temperature changes: A new data set from 1850J. Geophys. Res.2006111D121062006JGRD..11112106B10.1029/2005JD006548 – reference: BounouaLDeFriesRCollatzGJSellersPKhanHEffects of land cover conversion on surface climateClim. Change200252296410.1023/A:1013051420309 – reference: YoshikawaKHinzmanLDShrinking thermokarst ponds and groundwater dynamics in discontinuous permafrost near Council, AlaskaPermafrost Periglac. Process.20031415116010.1002/ppp.451 – reference: GillettNPWeaverAJZwiersFWFlanniganMDDetecting the effect of climate change on Canadian forest firesGeophys. Res. Lett.200431L182112004GeoRL..3118211G10.1029/2004GL020876 – reference: ParmesanCYoheGA globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systemsNature200342137421:CAS:528:DC%2BD3sXoslM%3D2003Natur.421...37P10.1038/nature01286 – reference: AsshoffRZotzGKornerCGrowth and phenology of mature temperate forest trees in elevated CO2Glob. Change Biol.2006128488612006GCBio..12..848A10.1111/j.1365-2486.2006.01133.x – reference: GiorgiFVariability and trends of sub-continental scale surface climate in the 20th century. Part I: observationsClim. Dyn.20021867569110.1007/s00382-001-0204-x – reference: RosenzweigCClimate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change200779131 – reference: EdwardsMRichardsonAJImpact of climate change on marine pelagic phenology and trophic mismatchNature20044308818841:CAS:528:DC%2BD2cXmslCnu7k%3D2004Natur.430..881E10.1038/nature02808 – reference: MenzelASparksTEstrellaNRoyDBGeographic and temporal variability in phenologyGlob. Ecol. Biogeogr.20061549850410.1111/j.1466-822X.2006.00247.x – reference: OrvikuKJaagusJKontARatasURivisRIncreasing activity of coastal processes associated with climate change in EstoniaJ. Coast. Res.200319364375 – reference: SorvariSKorholaAThompsonRLake diatom response to recent Arctic warming in Finnish LaplandGlob. Change Biol.200281711812002GCBio...8..171S10.1046/j.1365-2486.2002.00463.x – reference: RootTLFingerprints of global warming on wild animals and plantsNature200342157601:CAS:528:DC%2BD3sXovVc%3D2003Natur.421...57R10.1038/nature01333 – reference: ReichertBKBengtssonLOerlemansJRecent glacier retreat exceeds internal variabilityJ. Clim.200215306930812002JCli...15.3069R10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<3069:RGREIV>2.0.CO;2 – reference: ParmesanCEcological and evolutionary responses to recent climate changeAnn. Rev. Ecol. Evol. System.20063763766910.1146/annurev.ecolsys.37.091305.110100 – reference: RichardsonAJSchoemanDSClimate impact on plankton ecosystems in the Northeast AtlanticScience2004305160916121:CAS:528:DC%2BD2cXntlGrsr4%3D2004Sci...305.1609R10.1126/science.1100958 – reference: BeaugrandGReidPCLong-term changes in phytoplankton, zooplankton and salmon related to climateGlob. Change Biol.200398018172003GCBio...9..801B10.1046/j.1365-2486.2003.00632.x – reference: MitchellJFBClimate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change2001695738 – reference: RootTLMacMynowskiDPMastrandreaMDSchneiderSHHuman-modified temperatures induce species changes: joint attributionProc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA2005102746574691:CAS:528:DC%2BD2MXkslOnt7g%3D2005PNAS..102.7465R10.1073/pnas.0502286102 – reference: FrauenfeldOWZhangTBarryRGGilichinskyDInterdecadal changes in seasonal freeze and thaw depths in RussiaJ. Geophys. Res.2004109D051012004JGRD..109.5101F10.1029/2003JD004245 – reference: MotePWHamletAFClarkMPLettenmaierDPDeclining mountain snowpack in western north AmericaBull. Am. Meteorol. Soc.20058639492005BAMS...86...39M10.1175/BAMS-86-1-39 – reference: ForbesDLParkesGSMansonGKKetchLAStorms and shoreline retreat in the southern Gulf of St. LawrenceMar. Geol.20042101692042004MGeol.210..169F10.1016/j.margeo.2004.05.009 – reference: IPCC. in Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (eds Solomon, S. D. et al.) (Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, UK, 2007) – reference: FeddemaJA comparison of a GCM response to historical anthropogenic land cover change and model sensitivity to uncertainty in present-day land cover representationsClim. Dyn.20052558160910.1007/s00382-005-0038-z – reference: IPCC. in Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adapation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (eds, Parry, M. L., Canziani, O. F., Palutikof, J. P., van der Linden, P. J. & Hanson, C. E.) 7–22 (Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, UK, 2007) – reference: HegerlGCClimate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change2007663745 – reference: SmithTMReynoldsRWA global merged land and sea surface temperature reconstruction based on historical observations (1880–1997)J. Clim.200518202120362005JCli...18.2021S10.1175/JCLI3362.1 – reference: MillyPCDDunneKAVecchiaAVGlobal pattern of trends in streamflow and water availability in a changing climateNature20054383473501:CAS:528:DC%2BD2MXht1WksbfJ2005Natur.438..347M10.1038/nature04312 – reference: BeaulieuNAllardMThe impact of climate change on an emerging coastline affected by discontinuous permafrost: Manitounuk Strait, northern QuebecCan. J. Earth Sci.200340139314042003CaJES..40.1393B10.1139/e03-056 – reference: StottPAAttribution of regional-scale temperature changes to anthropogenic and natural causesGeophys. Res. 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| SubjectTerms | Agriculture Anthropogenic factors Biology Brackish Cellular Biology Climate change Climatic changes Climatology. Bioclimatology. Climate change Continents Databases, Factual Developing countries Earth, ocean, space Ecosystem Exact sciences and technology External geophysics Forestry Freshwater Geography Global temperature changes Global temperatures Greenhouse Effect Greenhouse gases History, 20th Century History, 21st Century Human Activities Humanities and Social Sciences Ice Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Internationality LDCs Life Sciences Marine Marine Biology Meteorology Models, Statistical multidisciplinary Oceans Rivers Science Science (multidisciplinary) Studies Temperature |
| Title | Attributing physical and biological impacts to anthropogenic climate change |
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