Global expansion and redistribution of Aedes-borne virus transmission risk with climate change
Forecasting the impacts of climate change on Aedes-borne viruses-especially dengue, chikungunya, and Zika-is a key component of public health preparedness. We apply an empirically parameterized model of viral transmission by the vectors Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus, as a function of temperature,...
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| Published in | PLoS neglected tropical diseases Vol. 13; no. 3; p. e0007213 |
|---|---|
| Main Authors | , , , |
| Format | Journal Article |
| Language | English |
| Published |
United States
Public Library of Science
01.03.2019
Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
| Subjects | |
| Online Access | Get full text |
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| Abstract | Forecasting the impacts of climate change on Aedes-borne viruses-especially dengue, chikungunya, and Zika-is a key component of public health preparedness. We apply an empirically parameterized model of viral transmission by the vectors Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus, as a function of temperature, to predict cumulative monthly global transmission risk in current climates, and compare them with projected risk in 2050 and 2080 based on general circulation models (GCMs). Our results show that if mosquito range shifts track optimal temperature ranges for transmission (21.3-34.0°C for Ae. aegypti; 19.9-29.4°C for Ae. albopictus), we can expect poleward shifts in Aedes-borne virus distributions. However, the differing thermal niches of the two vectors produce different patterns of shifts under climate change. More severe climate change scenarios produce larger population exposures to transmission by Ae. aegypti, but not by Ae. albopictus in the most extreme cases. Climate-driven risk of transmission from both mosquitoes will increase substantially, even in the short term, for most of Europe. In contrast, significant reductions in climate suitability are expected for Ae. albopictus, most noticeably in southeast Asia and west Africa. Within the next century, nearly a billion people are threatened with new exposure to virus transmission by both Aedes spp. in the worst-case scenario. As major net losses in year-round transmission risk are predicted for Ae. albopictus, we project a global shift towards more seasonal risk across regions. Many other complicating factors (like mosquito range limits and viral evolution) exist, but overall our results indicate that while climate change will lead to increased net and new exposures to Aedes-borne viruses, the most extreme increases in Ae. albopictus transmission are predicted to occur at intermediate climate change scenarios. |
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| AbstractList | Forecasting the impacts of climate change on Aedes-borne viruses-especially dengue, chikungunya, and Zika-is a key component of public health preparedness. We apply an empirically parameterized model of viral transmission by the vectors Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus, as a function of temperature, to predict cumulative monthly global transmission risk in current climates, and compare them with projected risk in 2050 and 2080 based on general circulation models (GCMs). Our results show that if mosquito range shifts track optimal temperature ranges for transmission (21.3-34.0°C for Ae. aegypti; 19.9-29.4°C for Ae. albopictus), we can expect poleward shifts in Aedes-borne virus distributions. However, the differing thermal niches of the two vectors produce different patterns of shifts under climate change. More severe climate change scenarios produce larger population exposures to transmission by Ae. aegypti, but not by Ae. albopictus in the most extreme cases. Climate-driven risk of transmission from both mosquitoes will increase substantially, even in the short term, for most of Europe. In contrast, significant reductions in climate suitability are expected for Ae. albopictus, most noticeably in southeast Asia and west Africa. Within the next century, nearly a billion people are threatened with new exposure to virus transmission by both Aedes spp. in the worst-case scenario. As major net losses in year-round transmission risk are predicted for Ae. albopictus, we project a global shift towards more seasonal risk across regions. Many other complicating factors (like mosquito range limits and viral evolution) exist, but overall our results indicate that while climate change will lead to increased net and new exposures to Aedes-borne viruses, the most extreme increases in Ae. albopictus transmission are predicted to occur at intermediate climate change scenarios.Forecasting the impacts of climate change on Aedes-borne viruses-especially dengue, chikungunya, and Zika-is a key component of public health preparedness. We apply an empirically parameterized model of viral transmission by the vectors Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus, as a function of temperature, to predict cumulative monthly global transmission risk in current climates, and compare them with projected risk in 2050 and 2080 based on general circulation models (GCMs). Our results show that if mosquito range shifts track optimal temperature ranges for transmission (21.3-34.0°C for Ae. aegypti; 19.9-29.4°C for Ae. albopictus), we can expect poleward shifts in Aedes-borne virus distributions. However, the differing thermal niches of the two vectors produce different patterns of shifts under climate change. More severe climate change scenarios produce larger population exposures to transmission by Ae. aegypti, but not by Ae. albopictus in the most extreme cases. Climate-driven risk of transmission from both mosquitoes will increase substantially, even in the short term, for most of Europe. In contrast, significant reductions in climate suitability are expected for Ae. albopictus, most noticeably in southeast Asia and west Africa. Within the next century, nearly a billion people are threatened with new exposure to virus transmission by both Aedes spp. in the worst-case scenario. As major net losses in year-round transmission risk are predicted for Ae. albopictus, we project a global shift towards more seasonal risk across regions. Many other complicating factors (like mosquito range limits and viral evolution) exist, but overall our results indicate that while climate change will lead to increased net and new exposures to Aedes-borne viruses, the most extreme increases in Ae. albopictus transmission are predicted to occur at intermediate climate change scenarios. Forecasting the impacts of climate change on Aedes-borne viruses—especially dengue, chikungunya, and Zika—is a key component of public health preparedness. We apply an empirically parameterized model of viral transmission by the vectors Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus, as a function of temperature, to predict cumulative monthly global transmission risk in current climates, and compare them with projected risk in 2050 and 2080 based on general circulation models (GCMs). Our results show that if mosquito range shifts track optimal temperature ranges for transmission (21.3–34.0°C for Ae. aegypti; 19.9–29.4°C for Ae. albopictus), we can expect poleward shifts in Aedes-borne virus distributions. However, the differing thermal niches of the two vectors produce different patterns of shifts under climate change. More severe climate change scenarios produce larger population exposures to transmission by Ae. aegypti, but not by Ae. albopictus in the most extreme cases. Climate-driven risk of transmission from both mosquitoes will increase substantially, even in the short term, for most of Europe. In contrast, significant reductions in climate suitability are expected for Ae. albopictus, most noticeably in southeast Asia and west Africa. Within the next century, nearly a billion people are threatened with new exposure to virus transmission by both Aedes spp. in the worst-case scenario. As major net losses in year-round transmission risk are predicted for Ae. albopictus, we project a global shift towards more seasonal risk across regions. Many other complicating factors (like mosquito range limits and viral evolution) exist, but overall our results indicate that while climate change will lead to increased net and new exposures to Aedes-borne viruses, the most extreme increases in Ae. albopictus transmission are predicted to occur at intermediate climate change scenarios. Forecasting the impacts of climate change on Aedes -borne viruses—especially dengue, chikungunya, and Zika—is a key component of public health preparedness. We apply an empirically parameterized model of viral transmission by the vectors Aedes aegypti and Ae . albopictus , as a function of temperature, to predict cumulative monthly global transmission risk in current climates, and compare them with projected risk in 2050 and 2080 based on general circulation models (GCMs). Our results show that if mosquito range shifts track optimal temperature ranges for transmission (21.3–34.0°C for Ae . aegypti ; 19.9–29.4°C for Ae . albopictus ), we can expect poleward shifts in Aedes -borne virus distributions. However, the differing thermal niches of the two vectors produce different patterns of shifts under climate change. More severe climate change scenarios produce larger population exposures to transmission by Ae . aegypti , but not by Ae . albopictus in the most extreme cases. Climate-driven risk of transmission from both mosquitoes will increase substantially, even in the short term, for most of Europe. In contrast, significant reductions in climate suitability are expected for Ae . albopictus , most noticeably in southeast Asia and west Africa. Within the next century, nearly a billion people are threatened with new exposure to virus transmission by both Aedes spp. in the worst-case scenario. As major net losses in year-round transmission risk are predicted for Ae . albopictus , we project a global shift towards more seasonal risk across regions. Many other complicating factors (like mosquito range limits and viral evolution) exist, but overall our results indicate that while climate change will lead to increased net and new exposures to Aedes -borne viruses, the most extreme increases in Ae . albopictus transmission are predicted to occur at intermediate climate change scenarios. The established scientific consensus indicates that climate change will severely exacerbate the risk and burden of Aedes- transmitted viruses, including dengue, chikungunya, Zika, and other significant threats to global health security. Here, we show more subtle impacts of climate change on transmission, caused primarily by differences between the more heat-tolerant Aedes aegypti and the more heat-limited Ae . albopictus . Within the next century, nearly a billion people could face their first exposure to viral transmission from either mosquito in the worst-case scenario, mainly in Europe and high-elevation tropical and subtropical regions. However, while year-round transmission potential from Ae . aegypti is likely to expand (particularly in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa), Ae . albopictus transmission potential is likely to decline substantially in the tropics, marking a global shift towards seasonal risk as the tropics eventually become too hot for transmission by Ae . albopictus . Complete mitigation of climate change to a pre-industrial baseline may protect almost a billion people from arbovirus range expansions; however, middle-of-the-road mitigation could produce the greatest expansion in the potential for viral transmission by Ae . albopictus . In any scenario, mitigating climate change would shift the projected burden of both dengue and chikungunya (and potentially other Aedes transmitted viruses) from higher-income regions back onto the tropics, where transmission might otherwise begin to decline due to rising temperatures. |
| Audience | Academic |
| Author | Mordecai, Erin A Carlson, Colin J Johnson, Leah R Ryan, Sadie J |
| AuthorAffiliation | 1 Department of Geography, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, United States of America 3 School of Life Sciences, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa 2 Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, United States of America 7 Department of Statistics, Virginia Polytechnic and State University, Blacksburg, Virginia, United States of America 5 National Socio-Environmental Synthesis Center, University of Maryland, Annapolis, Maryland, United States of America 6 Department of Biology, Stanford University, Stanford, California, United States of America 4 Department of Biology, Georgetown University, Washington, DC, United States of America Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies, UNITED STATES |
| AuthorAffiliation_xml | – name: 1 Department of Geography, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, United States of America – name: 2 Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, United States of America – name: Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies, UNITED STATES – name: 4 Department of Biology, Georgetown University, Washington, DC, United States of America – name: 7 Department of Statistics, Virginia Polytechnic and State University, Blacksburg, Virginia, United States of America – name: 6 Department of Biology, Stanford University, Stanford, California, United States of America – name: 3 School of Life Sciences, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa – name: 5 National Socio-Environmental Synthesis Center, University of Maryland, Annapolis, Maryland, United States of America |
| Author_xml | – sequence: 1 givenname: Sadie J orcidid: 0000-0002-4308-6321 surname: Ryan fullname: Ryan, Sadie J organization: School of Life Sciences, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa – sequence: 2 givenname: Colin J surname: Carlson fullname: Carlson, Colin J organization: National Socio-Environmental Synthesis Center, University of Maryland, Annapolis, Maryland, United States of America – sequence: 3 givenname: Erin A surname: Mordecai fullname: Mordecai, Erin A organization: Department of Biology, Stanford University, Stanford, California, United States of America – sequence: 4 givenname: Leah R surname: Johnson fullname: Johnson, Leah R organization: Department of Statistics, Virginia Polytechnic and State University, Blacksburg, Virginia, United States of America |
| BackLink | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30921321$$D View this record in MEDLINE/PubMed |
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| Snippet | Forecasting the impacts of climate change on Aedes-borne viruses-especially dengue, chikungunya, and Zika-is a key component of public health preparedness. We... Forecasting the impacts of climate change on Aedes-borne viruses—especially dengue, chikungunya, and Zika—is a key component of public health preparedness. We... Forecasting the impacts of climate change on Aedes -borne viruses—especially dengue, chikungunya, and Zika—is a key component of public health preparedness. We... |
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| Title | Global expansion and redistribution of Aedes-borne virus transmission risk with climate change |
| URI | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30921321 https://www.proquest.com/docview/2252312156 https://www.proquest.com/docview/2200777998 https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/PMC6438455 https://doaj.org/article/a9522afc51494f6abc91ee8aad73a8af http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0007213 |
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