Transmission potential and severity of COVID-19 in South Korea
•COVID-19 caused 6284 cases and 42 deaths in South Korea as of March 6, 2020.•The mean reproduction number Rt of COVID-19 in Korea was estimated at 1.5.•The crude case fatality rate is higher among males and increases with age.•Sustained disease transmission of COVID-19 in the region is suggested.•O...
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| Published in | International journal of infectious diseases Vol. 93; pp. 339 - 344 |
|---|---|
| Main Authors | , , , , |
| Format | Journal Article |
| Language | English |
| Published |
Canada
Elsevier Ltd
01.04.2020
The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of International Society for Infectious Diseases Elsevier |
| Subjects | |
| Online Access | Get full text |
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| Abstract | •COVID-19 caused 6284 cases and 42 deaths in South Korea as of March 6, 2020.•The mean reproduction number Rt of COVID-19 in Korea was estimated at 1.5.•The crude case fatality rate is higher among males and increases with age.•Sustained disease transmission of COVID-19 in the region is suggested.•Our estimates support the implementation of social distancing measures in Korea.
Since the first case of 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) identified on Jan 20, 2020, in South Korea, the number of cases rapidly increased, resulting in 6284 cases including 42 deaths as of Mar 6, 2020. To examine the growth rate of the outbreak, we present the first study to report the reproduction number of COVID-19 in South Korea.
The daily confirmed cases of COVID-19 in South Korea were extracted from publicly available sources. By using the empirical reporting delay distribution and simulating the generalized growth model, we estimated the effective reproduction number based on the discretized probability distribution of the generation interval.
We identified four major clusters and estimated the reproduction number at 1.5 (95% CI: 1.4–1.6). In addition, the intrinsic growth rate was estimated at 0.6 (95% CI: 0.6, 0.7), and the scaling of growth parameter was estimated at 0.8 (95% CI: 0.7, 0.8), indicating sub-exponential growth dynamics of COVID-19. The crude case fatality rate is higher among males (1.1%) compared to females (0.4%) and increases with older age.
Our results indicate an early sustained transmission of COVID-19 in South Korea and support the implementation of social distancing measures to rapidly control the outbreak. |
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| AbstractList | •
COVID-19 caused 6284 cases and 42 deaths in South Korea as of March 6, 2020.
•
The mean reproduction number
R
t
of COVID-19 in Korea was estimated at 1.5.
•
The crude case fatality rate is higher among males and increases with age.
•
Sustained disease transmission of COVID-19 in the region is suggested.
•
Our estimates support the implementation of social distancing measures in Korea. Objectives: Since the first case of 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) identified on Jan 20, 2020, in South Korea, the number of cases rapidly increased, resulting in 6284 cases including 42 deaths as of Mar 6, 2020. To examine the growth rate of the outbreak, we present the first study to report the reproduction number of COVID-19 in South Korea. Methods: The daily confirmed cases of COVID-19 in South Korea were extracted from publicly available sources. By using the empirical reporting delay distribution and simulating the generalized growth model, we estimated the effective reproduction number based on the discretized probability distribution of the generation interval. Results: We identified four major clusters and estimated the reproduction number at 1.5 (95% CI: 1.4–1.6). In addition, the intrinsic growth rate was estimated at 0.6 (95% CI: 0.6, 0.7), and the scaling of growth parameter was estimated at 0.8 (95% CI: 0.7, 0.8), indicating sub-exponential growth dynamics of COVID-19. The crude case fatality rate is higher among males (1.1%) compared to females (0.4%) and increases with older age. Conclusions: Our results indicate an early sustained transmission of COVID-19 in South Korea and support the implementation of social distancing measures to rapidly control the outbreak. Keywords: Coronavirus, COVID-19, Korea, Reproduction number Since the first case of 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) identified on Jan 20, 2020, in South Korea, the number of cases rapidly increased, resulting in 6284 cases including 42 deaths as of Mar 6, 2020. To examine the growth rate of the outbreak, we present the first study to report the reproduction number of COVID-19 in South Korea.OBJECTIVESSince the first case of 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) identified on Jan 20, 2020, in South Korea, the number of cases rapidly increased, resulting in 6284 cases including 42 deaths as of Mar 6, 2020. To examine the growth rate of the outbreak, we present the first study to report the reproduction number of COVID-19 in South Korea.The daily confirmed cases of COVID-19 in South Korea were extracted from publicly available sources. By using the empirical reporting delay distribution and simulating the generalized growth model, we estimated the effective reproduction number based on the discretized probability distribution of the generation interval.METHODSThe daily confirmed cases of COVID-19 in South Korea were extracted from publicly available sources. By using the empirical reporting delay distribution and simulating the generalized growth model, we estimated the effective reproduction number based on the discretized probability distribution of the generation interval.We identified four major clusters and estimated the reproduction number at 1.5 (95% CI: 1.4-1.6). In addition, the intrinsic growth rate was estimated at 0.6 (95% CI: 0.6, 0.7), and the scaling of growth parameter was estimated at 0.8 (95% CI: 0.7, 0.8), indicating sub-exponential growth dynamics of COVID-19. The crude case fatality rate is higher among males (1.1%) compared to females (0.4%) and increases with older age.RESULTSWe identified four major clusters and estimated the reproduction number at 1.5 (95% CI: 1.4-1.6). In addition, the intrinsic growth rate was estimated at 0.6 (95% CI: 0.6, 0.7), and the scaling of growth parameter was estimated at 0.8 (95% CI: 0.7, 0.8), indicating sub-exponential growth dynamics of COVID-19. The crude case fatality rate is higher among males (1.1%) compared to females (0.4%) and increases with older age.Our results indicate an early sustained transmission of COVID-19 in South Korea and support the implementation of social distancing measures to rapidly control the outbreak.CONCLUSIONSOur results indicate an early sustained transmission of COVID-19 in South Korea and support the implementation of social distancing measures to rapidly control the outbreak. •COVID-19 caused 6284 cases and 42 deaths in South Korea as of March 6, 2020.•The mean reproduction number Rt of COVID-19 in Korea was estimated at 1.5.•The crude case fatality rate is higher among males and increases with age.•Sustained disease transmission of COVID-19 in the region is suggested.•Our estimates support the implementation of social distancing measures in Korea. Since the first case of 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) identified on Jan 20, 2020, in South Korea, the number of cases rapidly increased, resulting in 6284 cases including 42 deaths as of Mar 6, 2020. To examine the growth rate of the outbreak, we present the first study to report the reproduction number of COVID-19 in South Korea. The daily confirmed cases of COVID-19 in South Korea were extracted from publicly available sources. By using the empirical reporting delay distribution and simulating the generalized growth model, we estimated the effective reproduction number based on the discretized probability distribution of the generation interval. We identified four major clusters and estimated the reproduction number at 1.5 (95% CI: 1.4–1.6). In addition, the intrinsic growth rate was estimated at 0.6 (95% CI: 0.6, 0.7), and the scaling of growth parameter was estimated at 0.8 (95% CI: 0.7, 0.8), indicating sub-exponential growth dynamics of COVID-19. The crude case fatality rate is higher among males (1.1%) compared to females (0.4%) and increases with older age. Our results indicate an early sustained transmission of COVID-19 in South Korea and support the implementation of social distancing measures to rapidly control the outbreak. Since the first case of 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) identified on Jan 20, 2020, in South Korea, the number of cases rapidly increased, resulting in 6284 cases including 42 deaths as of Mar 6, 2020. To examine the growth rate of the outbreak, we present the first study to report the reproduction number of COVID-19 in South Korea. The daily confirmed cases of COVID-19 in South Korea were extracted from publicly available sources. By using the empirical reporting delay distribution and simulating the generalized growth model, we estimated the effective reproduction number based on the discretized probability distribution of the generation interval. We identified four major clusters and estimated the reproduction number at 1.5 (95% CI: 1.4-1.6). In addition, the intrinsic growth rate was estimated at 0.6 (95% CI: 0.6, 0.7), and the scaling of growth parameter was estimated at 0.8 (95% CI: 0.7, 0.8), indicating sub-exponential growth dynamics of COVID-19. The crude case fatality rate is higher among males (1.1%) compared to females (0.4%) and increases with older age. Our results indicate an early sustained transmission of COVID-19 in South Korea and support the implementation of social distancing measures to rapidly control the outbreak. |
| Author | Tariq, Amna Chowell, Gerardo Choi, Wongyeong Shim, Eunha Lee, Yiseul |
| Author_xml | – sequence: 1 givenname: Eunha orcidid: 0000-0003-3135-6360 surname: Shim fullname: Shim, Eunha email: alicia@ssu.ac.kr organization: Department of Mathematics, Soongsil University, 369 Sangdoro, Dongjak-Gu, Seoul, 06978, Republic of Korea – sequence: 2 givenname: Amna surname: Tariq fullname: Tariq, Amna email: atariq1@student.gsu.edu organization: Department of Population Health Sciences, School of Public Health, Georgia State University, Atlanta, GA, USA – sequence: 3 givenname: Wongyeong surname: Choi fullname: Choi, Wongyeong email: chok10004@soongsil.ac.kr organization: Department of Mathematics, Soongsil University, 369 Sangdoro, Dongjak-Gu, Seoul, 06978, Republic of Korea – sequence: 4 givenname: Yiseul orcidid: 0000-0002-9751-7211 surname: Lee fullname: Lee, Yiseul email: ylee97@student.gsu.edu organization: Department of Population Health Sciences, School of Public Health, Georgia State University, Atlanta, GA, USA – sequence: 5 givenname: Gerardo surname: Chowell fullname: Chowell, Gerardo email: gchowell@gsu.edu organization: Department of Population Health Sciences, School of Public Health, Georgia State University, Atlanta, GA, USA |
| BackLink | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32198088$$D View this record in MEDLINE/PubMed |
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| Snippet | •COVID-19 caused 6284 cases and 42 deaths in South Korea as of March 6, 2020.•The mean reproduction number Rt of COVID-19 in Korea was estimated at 1.5.•The... Since the first case of 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) identified on Jan 20, 2020, in South Korea, the number of cases rapidly increased, resulting in 6284... • COVID-19 caused 6284 cases and 42 deaths in South Korea as of March 6, 2020. • The mean reproduction number R t of COVID-19 in Korea was estimated at 1.5. •... Objectives: Since the first case of 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) identified on Jan 20, 2020, in South Korea, the number of cases rapidly increased,... |
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| SubjectTerms | Age Factors Betacoronavirus - pathogenicity Coronavirus Coronavirus Infections - epidemiology Coronavirus Infections - mortality Coronavirus Infections - prevention & control Coronavirus Infections - transmission COVID-19 Female Humans Korea Male Models, Statistical Pandemics - prevention & control Pandemics - statistics & numerical data Pneumonia, Viral - epidemiology Pneumonia, Viral - mortality Pneumonia, Viral - prevention & control Pneumonia, Viral - transmission Reproduction number Republic of Korea - epidemiology SARS-CoV-2 Sex Factors |
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| Title | Transmission potential and severity of COVID-19 in South Korea |
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