Estimation of the reproductive number of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) and the probable outbreak size on the Diamond Princess cruise ship: A data-driven analysis

• Published in: International journal of infectious diseases Vol. 93; pp. 201 - 204
• Main Authors: Zhang, Sheng, Diao, MengYuan, Yu, Wenbo, Pei, Lei, Lin, Zhaofen, Chen, Dechang
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Canada Elsevier Ltd 01.04.2020; The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of International Society for Infectious Diseases; Elsevier
• Subjects: Betacoronavirus - physiology; Computer Simulation; Coronavirus; Coronavirus Infections - epidemiology; Coronavirus Infections - virology; COVID-19; Disease Outbreaks - statistics & numerical data; Epidemiology; Humans; Incidence; Mathematical model; Models, Biological; Pandemics; Pneumonia, Viral - epidemiology; Pneumonia, Viral - virology; Probability; Reproductive number; SARS-CoV-2; Ships - statistics & numerical data; Reproductive number; Coronavirus; Mathematical model; Epidemiology

•The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pneumonia has caused 355 confirmed cases on the Diamond Princess cruise ship as of February 16, 2020.•We estimated that the Maximum-Likelihood (ML) value of reproductive number (R0) was 2.28 for COVID-19 outbreak at the early stage on the ship.•If R0 value was reduc...