Estimating the incidence and diagnosed proportion of HIV infections in Japan: a statistical modeling study

• Published in: PeerJ (San Francisco, CA) Vol. 7; p. e6275
• Main Author: Nishiura, Hiroshi
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: United States PeerJ. Ltd 15.01.2019; PeerJ, Inc; PeerJ Inc
• Subjects: Acquired immune deficiency syndrome; AIDS; Antiretroviral therapy; Biology; Blood & organ donations; Epidemic; Epidemics; Epidemiology; Forecasting; HIV; Human immunodeficiency virus; Infections; Infectious Diseases; Mathematical models; Medicine; Methods; Opportunistic infection; Outbreak; Public Health; Statistical estimation; Statistical model; Statistics; Surveillance; Trends; United States > US; Japan; Epidemic; Opportunistic infection; Outbreak; Ascertainment; Statistical model; Test and treat; Statistical estimation; Forecasting

Epidemiological surveillance of HIV infection in Japan involves two technical problems for directly applying a classical backcalculation method, i.e., (i) all AIDS cases are not counted over time and (ii) people diagnosed with HIV have received antiretroviral therapy, extending the incubation period...