Compound climate events transform electrical power shortfall risk in the Pacific Northwest

Power system reliability is sensitive to climate-driven variations in both energy demand and water availability, yet the combined effect of these impacts is rarely evaluated. Here we show that combined climate change impacts on loads and hydropower generation may have a transformative effect on the...

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Published inNature communications Vol. 10; no. 1; p. 8
Main Authors Turner, S. W. D., Voisin, N., Fazio, J., Hua, D., Jourabchi, M.
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published London Nature Publishing Group UK 02.01.2019
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Abstract Power system reliability is sensitive to climate-driven variations in both energy demand and water availability, yet the combined effect of these impacts is rarely evaluated. Here we show that combined climate change impacts on loads and hydropower generation may have a transformative effect on the nature and seasonality of power shortfall risk in the U.S. Pacific Northwest. Under climate change, potential shortfall events occur more readily, but are significantly less severe in nature. A seasonal reversal in shortfall risk occurs: winter shortfalls are eradicated due to reduced building heating demands, while summer shortfalls multiply as increased peak loads for day-time cooling coincide with impaired hydropower generation. Many of these summer shortfalls go unregistered when climate change impacts on loads and hydropower dispatch are analyzed in isolation—highlighting an important role of compound events. Climate change will affect both the demand for electrical power and the generating capabilities of hydropower plants. Here the authors investigated the combined impact of these effects in the US Pacific Northwest by considering the dynamics of the regional  power grid, where they reveal a profound impact of climate change on power shortfall risk by the year 2035.
AbstractList Climate change will affect both the demand for electrical power and the generating capabilities of hydropower plants. Here the authors investigated the combined impact of these effects in the US Pacific Northwest by considering the dynamics of the regional  power grid, where they reveal a profound impact of climate change on power shortfall risk by the year 2035.
Power system reliability is sensitive to climate-driven variations in both energy demand and water availability, yet the combined effect of these impacts is rarely evaluated. Here we show that combined climate change impacts on loads and hydropower generation may have a transformative effect on the nature and seasonality of power shortfall risk in the U.S. Pacific Northwest. Under climate change, potential shortfall events occur more readily, but are significantly less severe in nature. A seasonal reversal in shortfall risk occurs: winter shortfalls are eradicated due to reduced building heating demands, while summer shortfalls multiply as increased peak loads for day-time cooling coincide with impaired hydropower generation. Many of these summer shortfalls go unregistered when climate change impacts on loads and hydropower dispatch are analyzed in isolation—highlighting an important role of compound events.
Power system reliability is sensitive to climate-driven variations in both energy demand and water availability, yet the combined effect of these impacts is rarely evaluated. Here we show that combined climate change impacts on loads and hydropower generation may have a transformative effect on the nature and seasonality of power shortfall risk in the U.S. Pacific Northwest. Under climate change, potential shortfall events occur more readily, but are significantly less severe in nature. A seasonal reversal in shortfall risk occurs: winter shortfalls are eradicated due to reduced building heating demands, while summer shortfalls multiply as increased peak loads for day-time cooling coincide with impaired hydropower generation. Many of these summer shortfalls go unregistered when climate change impacts on loads and hydropower dispatch are analyzed in isolation—highlighting an important role of compound events. Climate change will affect both the demand for electrical power and the generating capabilities of hydropower plants. Here the authors investigated the combined impact of these effects in the US Pacific Northwest by considering the dynamics of the regional  power grid, where they reveal a profound impact of climate change on power shortfall risk by the year 2035.
Abstract Power system reliability is sensitive to climate-driven variations in both energy demand and water availability, yet the combined effect of these impacts is rarely evaluated. Here we show that combined climate change impacts on loads and hydropower generation may have a transformative effect on the nature and seasonality of power shortfall risk in the U.S. Pacific Northwest. Under climate change, potential shortfall events occur more readily, but are significantly less severe in nature. A seasonal reversal in shortfall risk occurs: winter shortfalls are eradicated due to reduced building heating demands, while summer shortfalls multiply as increased peak loads for day-time cooling coincide with impaired hydropower generation. Many of these summer shortfalls go unregistered when climate change impacts on loads and hydropower dispatch are analyzed in isolation—highlighting an important role of compound events.
Power system operations are sensitive to climate-driven variations in both energy demands and water availability. Yet the combined effect of these impacts on power system adequacy is rarely evaluated. Here we assess power shortfall risk for the U.S. Pacific Northwest under combined climate impacts on loads and hydropower generation. Climate change emerges as both a risk and an opportunity; potential shortfall events occur more readily, but are significantly less severe in nature (annual shortfall probability is more than doubled for a business as usual policy; average shortfall event duration is halved and average maximum shortfall is reduced by up to ~60%). A seasonal reversal in shortfall risk occurs: winter shortfalls are eradicated due to reduced building heating demands, whilst summer shortfalls multiply as increased peak loads for day-time cooling coincide with impaired hydropower generation. Many of these summer shortfalls go unregistered when climate change impacts on loads and hydro dispatch are analyzed in isolation—suggesting an important role of compound events.
ArticleNumber 8
Author Jourabchi, M.
Hua, D.
Voisin, N.
Fazio, J.
Turner, S. W. D.
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https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1512449$$D View this record in Osti.gov
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A Miara (7894_CR11) 2017; 7
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Snippet Power system reliability is sensitive to climate-driven variations in both energy demand and water availability, yet the combined effect of these impacts is...
Abstract Power system reliability is sensitive to climate-driven variations in both energy demand and water availability, yet the combined effect of these...
Power system operations are sensitive to climate-driven variations in both energy demands and water availability. Yet the combined effect of these impacts on...
Climate change will affect both the demand for electrical power and the generating capabilities of hydropower plants. Here the authors investigated the...
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StartPage 8
SubjectTerms 704/844/4066/4078
704/844/682
704/844/841
706/2805
706/4066/4080
Climate change
Electric power
Energy demand
ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
Humanities and Social Sciences
Hydroelectric power
Hydroelectric power generation
multidisciplinary
Peak load
Power failures
Risk
Science
Science (multidisciplinary)
Seasonal variations
Summer
System reliability
Water availability
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Title Compound climate events transform electrical power shortfall risk in the Pacific Northwest
URI https://link.springer.com/article/10.1038/s41467-018-07894-4
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30602781
https://www.proquest.com/docview/2162764128
https://search.proquest.com/docview/2163015628
https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1512449
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/PMC6315041
https://doaj.org/article/e5b864ccd7b34855871ef9abebfe9a8f
Volume 10
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