Toward a more managed international monetary system?
Argues that emerging nations have an opportunity to shape the future of the world economy, especially the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India, & China) that are enjoying rapid economic growth & increasing financial clout. Together with the euro countries, the BRICs are driving "the wo...
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| Published in | International journal (Toronto) Vol. 65; no. 2; pp. 393 - 409 |
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| Main Authors | , |
| Format | Journal Article |
| Language | English |
| Published |
London, England
Canadian International Council
22.03.2010
SAGE Publications Sage Publications Ltd. (UK) Sage Publications Ltd |
| Subjects | |
| Online Access | Get full text |
| ISSN | 0020-7020 2052-465X |
| DOI | 10.1177/002070201006500211 |
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| Abstract | Argues that emerging nations have an opportunity to shape the future of the world economy, especially the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India, & China) that are enjoying rapid economic growth & increasing financial clout. Together with the euro countries, the BRICs are driving "the world away from a US-dominated system toward a multipolar one." Attention is given to challenges facing multilateralism in relation to trade & debates surrounding the position of the US dollar at the top of the international monetary system. Common interests shared by the US, the euro area, & BRICs are pointed out, along with the potential for the BRIC's challenge of the international monetary system to disrupt financial stability. Other matters discussed include the 16 June 2009 meeting of BRIC leaders; the impact of the status of US monetary policy on global economic outcomes; possible realignment of economic power; & potential dangers of a multipolar world. Emphasis is placed on the need for greater cooperation on monetary policy, currency market intervention, & financial regulation/supervision. J. Lindroth |
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| AbstractList | For the first time in modern history, leading emerging nations have a real chance to shape the evolution of the world economy. Key actors in this scenario are the BRIC countries - Brazil, Russia, India, and China - whose growing presence on the global stage has been the defining feature of the world economic landscape in the early 21st century. Backed by rapid economic growth, growing financial clout, and a newfound sense of assertiveness in recent years, the BRICs are a driving force behind an incipient transformation of the world economy away from a US-dominated system toward a multipolar one in which developing countries will have a major say. Meanwhile, increasing economic cohesion in Europe - particularly among the 16 member states of the euro area - is a separate source of pressure on the international governance structure. Both the BRICs and the euro area will contribute to the continued evolution of the international monetary system as they work to strengthen their relative positions and mould the system to their purposes. Argues that emerging nations have an opportunity to shape the future of the world economy, especially the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India, & China) that are enjoying rapid economic growth & increasing financial clout. Together with the euro countries, the BRICs are driving "the world away from a US-dominated system toward a multipolar one." Attention is given to challenges facing multilateralism in relation to trade & debates surrounding the position of the US dollar at the top of the international monetary system. Common interests shared by the US, the euro area, & BRICs are pointed out, along with the potential for the BRIC's challenge of the international monetary system to disrupt financial stability. Other matters discussed include the 16 June 2009 meeting of BRIC leaders; the impact of the status of US monetary policy on global economic outcomes; possible realignment of economic power; & potential dangers of a multipolar world. Emphasis is placed on the need for greater cooperation on monetary policy, currency market intervention, & financial regulation/supervision. J. Lindroth Another problem with the current international monetary nonsystem is the high level of exchange rate volatility, which will be exacerbated by the existence of multiple major reserve currencies. As Robert Triffin argued five decades ago with respect to the US dollar, reserve currency countries are subject to crises of confidence when they run balance-of-payments deficits.7 While such deficits may be essential to augment global liquidity, the associated increase in claims on the anchor country can raise doubts about its ability to honour them. In a world with a single reserve currency, the possibilities of substituting away from that currency are limited (though they did lead ultimately to the demise of the Bretton Woods system). Thus, despite concerns about future US monetary policy and the large US current account deficits of recent decades, the dollar has not faced a disorderly fall - the dreaded "hard landing." In a multiple-reserve-currency setting, however, credibility problems can have an immediate impact as holders of one major currency easily shift to another. In this regard, the [BRICs]' calls for a shift away from the dollar could trigger a crisis of confidence in the currency, causing massive losses in the value of dollar-denominated assets. Without coordination of the transition away from a dollar-dominated system to a multipolar or true multilateral monetary system, there are dangers of financial instability with grave consequences for economic activity and development in all countries. The history of the international monetary system suggests that there is a large degree of inertia in currency use. Thus, moving away from the dominance of the US dollar can be expected to be a gradual process. Creation of the euro and the growing economic clout of the BRICs over the past decade, however, have led to a new environment in which a multipolar international monetary system is beginning to emerge. For the first time since World War II, there is a genuine international alternative to the dollar. A multipolar monetary environment, however, is likely to exacerbate currency instability, leading to shifts into and out of the major reserve currencies. Without greater cooperation among major countries, a laissez-faire multipolar international monetary system will be prone to instability and crises. This situation in turn is likely to lead to increasing demands for a managed international monetary system and a move away from the nonsystem that emerged after the breakdown of Bretton Woods. However, the form that such a more managed system might take - its rules of the game - is at present hard to discern, and it is not at all certain that a group of countries as diverse as the G20 will be able to reach agreement at all. What seems clear, nevertheless, is that any transition to a new international monetary framework will be a difficult and drawn-out process, opening the door to a recurrence of global crises like the one we have just seen. Therefore, governments should take immediate steps to prevent financial volatility by enhancing cooperation on monetary policies, currency market intervention, and financial supervision and regulation. |
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| Author | Masson, Paul R. Dailami, Mansoor |
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| Copyright | 2010 Canadian International Council 2010 Canadian International Council/Centre for Contemporary International History COPYRIGHT 2010 Sage Publications Ltd. (UK) Copyright Canadian International Council Spring 2010 |
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| SubjectTerms | 21st century American dollar Analysis Brazil Bretton Woods system Cooperation Coordination Crises Currency Currency instability Deficits Developing countries Dominance Economic activity Economic Conditions Economic crises Economic development Economic growth Economic power Economic stability Emerging markets Euro Financial regulation Foreign exchange markets Foreign exchange rates Free markets Global economy Globalization Governance India International cooperation International economics International finance International financial institutions International financial management International monetary system International monetary systems LDCs Monetary Policy Monetary systems Money Multilateralism Over the transom Payments Peoples Republic of China Public debt Public finance Recurrence Reserve currencies Russia Stability Trade negotiation Transformation United States of America Volatility World Economy World War II |
| Title | Toward a more managed international monetary system? |
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