Household rat infestation in urban slum populations: Development and validation of a predictive score for leptospirosis
Domestic rats are the principal reservoir for urban leptospirosis. However, few studies have identified infestation markers in slums and evaluated their predictivity for leptospirosis risk. We compared households with leptospirosis cases in Salvador, Brazil between 2007 and 2009 and their neighbors...
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| Published in | PLoS neglected tropical diseases Vol. 15; no. 3; p. e0009154 |
|---|---|
| Main Authors | , , , , , , , , , , |
| Format | Journal Article |
| Language | English |
| Published |
United States
Public Library of Science
01.03.2021
Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
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| Abstract | Domestic rats are the principal reservoir for urban leptospirosis. However, few studies have identified infestation markers in slums and evaluated their predictivity for leptospirosis risk. We compared households with leptospirosis cases in Salvador, Brazil between 2007 and 2009 and their neighbors using a case control design, surveying for rodent infestation signs and environmental characteristics. With the 2007–2008 data, a conditional logistic regression modeling identified the peridomiciliar presence of rodent burrows (OR, 3.30; 95% CI, 1.50–7.26), rat feces (2.86; 1.24–6.59), runs (2.57; 1.06–6.22), households bordering abandoned houses (2.48; 1.04–6.02), and unplastered walls (2.22; 1.02–6.02) as risk factors and developed a predictive score for leptospirosis. With an independent data set from 2009, a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis evaluated the prediction score performance, with the area under the curve being 0.70 (95% CI, 0.64–0.76) for score development and 0.71 (0.65–0.79) for validation. Results indicate that high proportions of urban slum households are infested with
R
.
norvegicus
. The score performed well when identifying high-risk households within slums. These findings need confirmation in other urban centers, but suggest that community-based screening for rodent infestation can allow to target rodent and environmental control measures in populations at highest risk for leptospirosis. |
|---|---|
| AbstractList | Targeted and cost-effective interventions specific to households with high risk for leptospirosis occurrence could improve both leptospirosis prevention and rodent management.
[...]we examined household environments to determine if signs of rodent infestation are associated with the occurrence of severe leptospirosis in household subjects.
Beginning in January 2007, trained personnel conducted active surveillance for 36 months (until December 2009) in this hospital, to consecutively identify patients from Salvador that fulfilled a clinical case definition for severe leptospirosis defined as a hospitalized patient with acute undifferentiated fever associated with either bleeding, acute renal failure, jaundice, or acute liver injury with transaminases <1,000 U/L [5].
Because of the environmental and socioeconomic differences found in Salvador, some variables from the CDC manual needed to be excluded or modified and additional variables were incorporated [10].
Rodent-related and environmental risk factors for severe leptospirosis among 95 case and 184 control households in Salvador, Brazil. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0009154.t001 To develop a practical prognostic score, we assigned weights (proportional to the β regression coefficient values, rounded to the nearest integer) to the independent risk factors identified by the multivariable analysis performed in the development group [21]. Domestic rats are the principal reservoir for urban leptospirosis. However, few studies have identified infestation markers in slums and evaluated their predictivity for leptospirosis risk. We compared households with leptospirosis cases in Salvador, Brazil between 2007 and 2009 and their neighbors using a case control design, surveying for rodent infestation signs and environmental characteristics. With the 2007-2008 data, a conditional logistic regression modeling identified the peridomiciliar presence of rodent burrows (OR, 3.30; 95% CI, 1.50-7.26), rat feces (2.86; 1.24-6.59), runs (2.57; 1.06-6.22), households bordering abandoned houses (2.48; 1.04-6.02), and unplastered walls (2.22; 1.02-6.02) as risk factors and developed a predictive score for leptospirosis. With an independent data set from 2009, a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis evaluated the prediction score performance, with the area under the curve being 0.70 (95% CI, 0.64-0.76) for score development and 0.71 (0.65-0.79) for validation. Results indicate that high proportions of urban slum households are infested with R. norvegicus. The score performed well when identifying high-risk households within slums. These findings need confirmation in other urban centers, but suggest that community-based screening for rodent infestation can allow to target rodent and environmental control measures in populations at highest risk for leptospirosis. Targeted and cost-effective interventions specific to households with high risk for leptospirosis occurrence could improve both leptospirosis prevention and rodent management. [...]we examined household environments to determine if signs of rodent infestation are associated with the occurrence of severe leptospirosis in household subjects. Beginning in January 2007, trained personnel conducted active surveillance for 36 months (until December 2009) in this hospital, to consecutively identify patients from Salvador that fulfilled a clinical case definition for severe leptospirosis defined as a hospitalized patient with acute undifferentiated fever associated with either bleeding, acute renal failure, jaundice, or acute liver injury with transaminases <1,000 U/L [5]. Because of the environmental and socioeconomic differences found in Salvador, some variables from the CDC manual needed to be excluded or modified and additional variables were incorporated [10]. Rodent-related and environmental risk factors for severe leptospirosis among 95 case and 184 control households in Salvador, Brazil. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0009154.t001 To develop a practical prognostic score, we assigned weights (proportional to the β regression coefficient values, rounded to the nearest integer) to the independent risk factors identified by the multivariable analysis performed in the development group [21]. Domestic rats are the principal reservoir for urban leptospirosis. However, few studies have identified infestation markers in slums and evaluated their predictivity for leptospirosis risk. We compared households with leptospirosis cases in Salvador, Brazil between 2007 and 2009 and their neighbors using a case control design, surveying for rodent infestation signs and environmental characteristics. With the 2007–2008 data, a conditional logistic regression modeling identified the peridomiciliar presence of rodent burrows (OR, 3.30; 95% CI, 1.50–7.26), rat feces (2.86; 1.24–6.59), runs (2.57; 1.06–6.22), households bordering abandoned houses (2.48; 1.04–6.02), and unplastered walls (2.22; 1.02–6.02) as risk factors and developed a predictive score for leptospirosis. With an independent data set from 2009, a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis evaluated the prediction score performance, with the area under the curve being 0.70 (95% CI, 0.64–0.76) for score development and 0.71 (0.65–0.79) for validation. Results indicate that high proportions of urban slum households are infested with R . norvegicus . The score performed well when identifying high-risk households within slums. These findings need confirmation in other urban centers, but suggest that community-based screening for rodent infestation can allow to target rodent and environmental control measures in populations at highest risk for leptospirosis. Domestic rats are the principal reservoir for urban leptospirosis. However, few studies have identified infestation markers in slums and evaluated their predictivity for leptospirosis risk. We compared households with leptospirosis cases in Salvador, Brazil between 2007 and 2009 and their neighbors using a case control design, surveying for rodent infestation signs and environmental characteristics. With the 2007-2008 data, a conditional logistic regression modeling identified the peridomiciliar presence of rodent burrows (OR, 3.30; 95% CI, 1.50-7.26), rat feces (2.86; 1.24-6.59), runs (2.57; 1.06-6.22), households bordering abandoned houses (2.48; 1.04-6.02), and unplastered walls (2.22; 1.02-6.02) as risk factors and developed a predictive score for leptospirosis. With an independent data set from 2009, a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis evaluated the prediction score performance, with the area under the curve being 0.70 (95% CI, 0.64-0.76) for score development and 0.71 (0.65-0.79) for validation. Results indicate that high proportions of urban slum households are infested with R. norvegicus. The score performed well when identifying high-risk households within slums. These findings need confirmation in other urban centers, but suggest that community-based screening for rodent infestation can allow to target rodent and environmental control measures in populations at highest risk for leptospirosis.Domestic rats are the principal reservoir for urban leptospirosis. However, few studies have identified infestation markers in slums and evaluated their predictivity for leptospirosis risk. We compared households with leptospirosis cases in Salvador, Brazil between 2007 and 2009 and their neighbors using a case control design, surveying for rodent infestation signs and environmental characteristics. With the 2007-2008 data, a conditional logistic regression modeling identified the peridomiciliar presence of rodent burrows (OR, 3.30; 95% CI, 1.50-7.26), rat feces (2.86; 1.24-6.59), runs (2.57; 1.06-6.22), households bordering abandoned houses (2.48; 1.04-6.02), and unplastered walls (2.22; 1.02-6.02) as risk factors and developed a predictive score for leptospirosis. With an independent data set from 2009, a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis evaluated the prediction score performance, with the area under the curve being 0.70 (95% CI, 0.64-0.76) for score development and 0.71 (0.65-0.79) for validation. Results indicate that high proportions of urban slum households are infested with R. norvegicus. The score performed well when identifying high-risk households within slums. These findings need confirmation in other urban centers, but suggest that community-based screening for rodent infestation can allow to target rodent and environmental control measures in populations at highest risk for leptospirosis. Domestic rats are the principal reservoir for urban leptospirosis. However, few studies have identified infestation markers in slums and evaluated their predictivity for leptospirosis risk. We compared households with leptospirosis cases in Salvador, Brazil between 2007 and 2009 and their neighbors using a case control design, surveying for rodent infestation signs and environmental characteristics. With the 2007–2008 data, a conditional logistic regression modeling identified the peridomiciliar presence of rodent burrows (OR, 3.30; 95% CI, 1.50–7.26), rat feces (2.86; 1.24–6.59), runs (2.57; 1.06–6.22), households bordering abandoned houses (2.48; 1.04–6.02), and unplastered walls (2.22; 1.02–6.02) as risk factors and developed a predictive score for leptospirosis. With an independent data set from 2009, a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis evaluated the prediction score performance, with the area under the curve being 0.70 (95% CI, 0.64–0.76) for score development and 0.71 (0.65–0.79) for validation. Results indicate that high proportions of urban slum households are infested with R . norvegicus . The score performed well when identifying high-risk households within slums. These findings need confirmation in other urban centers, but suggest that community-based screening for rodent infestation can allow to target rodent and environmental control measures in populations at highest risk for leptospirosis. Leptospirosis is a rodent-borne zoonosis associated to impoverished areas, where inadequate infrastructure and urban services expose the population to infection through contaminated water and soil. Given the difficulty of early diagnosis and of implementation of large-scale sanitary and rodent control interventions, predictive score that can assess the risk of infection could be useful to define priority areas for local interventions that mitigate the risks. The authors combined data from hospital surveillance for severe leptospirosis cases, domiciliary follow-up visits and environmental surveys to identify environmental and structural characteristics associated to severe leptospirosis incidence (using nearby households without severe cases as matched controls). Signs of rodent infestation in the peridomicile (burrows, fecal pellets, rodent run marks), bordering abandoned houses and non-plastered walls were associated to severe leptospirosis cases and were used to develop the predictive score. The score was able to identify the households with severe leptospirosis cases, and could be applied to define targeted control measures to reduce risk of infection. |
| Audience | Academic |
| Author | Ko, Albert I. Reis, Mitermayer G. Costa, Federico Santos, Norlan Bittencourt, Deborah Ribeiro, Guilherme S. Santana, Carlos Martins, Ridalva D. Reis, Renato Barbosa Brant, Jonas Zeppelini, Caio Graco |
| AuthorAffiliation | 2 Instituto de Saúde Coletiva, Universidade Federal da Bahia, Salvador, Bahia, Brazil 6 Centro de Controle de Zoonoses, Ministério da Saúde, Salvador, Brazil 3 Programa de Pós-Graduação em Ecologia: Teoria, Aplicação e Valores, Universidade Federal da Bahia, Salvador, Brazil 4 Laboratório de Mamíferos, Universidade Federal da Paraíba, João Pessoa, Brazil 5 Faculdade de Medicina, Universidade Federal da Bahia, Salvador, Bahia, Brazil 7 Programa de Treinamento em Epidemiologia Aplicada aos Serviços do SUS, Secretaria de Vigilância em Saúde, Ministério da Saúde, Brasília, Brazil Medical College of Wisconsin, UNITED STATES 8 Yale School of Public Health, Yale University, New Heaven, United States of America 1 Instituto Gonçalo Moniz, Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Ministério da Saúde, Salvador, Brazil |
| AuthorAffiliation_xml | – name: 6 Centro de Controle de Zoonoses, Ministério da Saúde, Salvador, Brazil – name: 4 Laboratório de Mamíferos, Universidade Federal da Paraíba, João Pessoa, Brazil – name: 5 Faculdade de Medicina, Universidade Federal da Bahia, Salvador, Bahia, Brazil – name: 2 Instituto de Saúde Coletiva, Universidade Federal da Bahia, Salvador, Bahia, Brazil – name: 3 Programa de Pós-Graduação em Ecologia: Teoria, Aplicação e Valores, Universidade Federal da Bahia, Salvador, Brazil – name: Medical College of Wisconsin, UNITED STATES – name: 1 Instituto Gonçalo Moniz, Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Ministério da Saúde, Salvador, Brazil – name: 7 Programa de Treinamento em Epidemiologia Aplicada aos Serviços do SUS, Secretaria de Vigilância em Saúde, Ministério da Saúde, Brasília, Brazil – name: 8 Yale School of Public Health, Yale University, New Heaven, United States of America |
| Author_xml | – sequence: 1 givenname: Federico orcidid: 0000-0001-6951-2336 surname: Costa fullname: Costa, Federico – sequence: 2 givenname: Caio Graco orcidid: 0000-0002-0490-4395 surname: Zeppelini fullname: Zeppelini, Caio Graco – sequence: 3 givenname: Guilherme S. orcidid: 0000-0002-6798-2059 surname: Ribeiro fullname: Ribeiro, Guilherme S. – sequence: 4 givenname: Norlan orcidid: 0000-0002-3146-7813 surname: Santos fullname: Santos, Norlan – sequence: 5 givenname: Renato Barbosa surname: Reis fullname: Reis, Renato Barbosa – sequence: 6 givenname: Ridalva D. orcidid: 0000-0003-0295-9998 surname: Martins fullname: Martins, Ridalva D. – sequence: 7 givenname: Deborah orcidid: 0000-0003-4788-0319 surname: Bittencourt fullname: Bittencourt, Deborah – sequence: 8 givenname: Carlos surname: Santana fullname: Santana, Carlos – sequence: 9 givenname: Jonas orcidid: 0000-0003-2248-9102 surname: Brant fullname: Brant, Jonas – sequence: 10 givenname: Mitermayer G. orcidid: 0000-0002-3051-9060 surname: Reis fullname: Reis, Mitermayer G. – sequence: 11 givenname: Albert I. orcidid: 0000-0001-9023-2339 surname: Ko fullname: Ko, Albert I. |
| BackLink | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33657101$$D View this record in MEDLINE/PubMed |
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| Copyright | COPYRIGHT 2021 Public Library of Science 2021 Costa et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (the “License”), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. Notwithstanding the ProQuest Terms and Conditions, you may use this content in accordance with the terms of the License. 2021 Costa et al 2021 Costa et al |
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| Title | Household rat infestation in urban slum populations: Development and validation of a predictive score for leptospirosis |
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