An investigation of spatial-temporal patterns and predictions of the coronavirus 2019 pandemic in Colombia, 2020–2021

Colombia announced the first case of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 on March 6, 2020. Since then, the country has reported a total of 5,002,387 cases and 127,258 deaths as of October 31, 2021. The aggressive transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 motivate an investigation of COVID-19 a...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Published inPLoS neglected tropical diseases Vol. 16; no. 3; p. e0010228
Main Authors Tariq, Amna, Chakhaia, Tsira, Dahal, Sushma, Ewing, Alexander, Hua, Xinyi, Ofori, Sylvia K., Prince, Olaseni, Salindri, Argita D., Adeniyi, Ayotomiwa Ezekiel, Banda, Juan M., Skums, Pavel, Luo, Ruiyan, Lara-Díaz, Leidy Y., Bürger, Raimund, Fung, Isaac Chun-Hai, Shim, Eunha, Kirpich, Alexander, Srivastava, Anuj, Chowell, Gerardo
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published United States Public Library of Science 01.03.2022
Public Library of Science (PLoS)
Subjects
Analysis
Biology and life sciences
Colombia - epidemiology
Computer and Information Sciences
Coronaviruses
Countries
COVID-19
COVID-19 - epidemiology
COVID-19 vaccines
Disease control
Disease prevention
Disease transmission
Distribution
Dynamics
Epidemic models
Epidemics
Forecasting
Health
Health policy
Heterogeneity
Humans
Immunization
Mathematical models
Medical supplies
Medicine and Health Sciences
Mobility
Pandemics
People and places
Physical Sciences
Public health
Quarantine
Reproduction
Research and Analysis Methods
Respiratory diseases
SARS-CoV-2
Severe acute respiratory syndrome
Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2
Social distancing
Social media
Social Sciences
Spatial variations
Transmission
Trends
Tropical diseases
Viral diseases
Colombia
Brazil
Mexico
Latin America
Online AccessGet full text

Cover

Abstract Colombia announced the first case of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 on March 6, 2020. Since then, the country has reported a total of 5,002,387 cases and 127,258 deaths as of October 31, 2021. The aggressive transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 motivate an investigation of COVID-19 at the national and regional levels in Colombia. We utilize the case incidence and mortality data to estimate the transmission potential and generate short-term forecasts of the COVID-19 pandemic to inform the public health policies using previously validated mathematical models. The analysis is augmented by the examination of geographic heterogeneity of COVID-19 at the departmental level along with the investigation of mobility and social media trends. Overall, the national and regional reproduction numbers show sustained disease transmission during the early phase of the pandemic, exhibiting sub-exponential growth dynamics. Whereas the most recent estimates of reproduction number indicate disease containment, with R t <1.0 as of October 31, 2021. On the forecasting front, the sub-epidemic model performs best at capturing the 30-day ahead COVID-19 trajectory compared to the Richards and generalized logistic growth model. Nevertheless, the spatial variability in the incidence rate patterns across different departments can be grouped into four distinct clusters. As the case incidence surged in July 2020, an increase in mobility patterns was also observed. On the contrary, a spike in the number of tweets indicating the stay-at-home orders was observed in November 2020 when the case incidence had already plateaued, indicating the pandemic fatigue in the country.
AbstractList Colombia announced the first case of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 on March 6, 2020. Since then, the country has reported a total of 5,002,387 cases and 127,258 deaths as of October 31, 2021. The aggressive transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 motivate an investigation of COVID-19 at the national and regional levels in Colombia. We utilize the case incidence and mortality data to estimate the transmission potential and generate short-term forecasts of the COVID-19 pandemic to inform the public health policies using previously validated mathematical models. The analysis is augmented by the examination of geographic heterogeneity of COVID-19 at the departmental level along with the investigation of mobility and social media trends. Overall, the national and regional reproduction numbers show sustained disease transmission during the early phase of the pandemic, exhibiting sub-exponential growth dynamics. Whereas the most recent estimates of reproduction number indicate disease containment, with Rt<1.0 as of October 31, 2021. On the forecasting front, the sub-epidemic model performs best at capturing the 30-day ahead COVID-19 trajectory compared to the Richards and generalized logistic growth model. Nevertheless, the spatial variability in the incidence rate patterns across different departments can be grouped into four distinct clusters. As the case incidence surged in July 2020, an increase in mobility patterns was also observed. On the contrary, a spike in the number of tweets indicating the stay-at-home orders was observed in November 2020 when the case incidence had already plateaued, indicating the pandemic fatigue in the country.Colombia announced the first case of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 on March 6, 2020. Since then, the country has reported a total of 5,002,387 cases and 127,258 deaths as of October 31, 2021. The aggressive transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 motivate an investigation of COVID-19 at the national and regional levels in Colombia. We utilize the case incidence and mortality data to estimate the transmission potential and generate short-term forecasts of the COVID-19 pandemic to inform the public health policies using previously validated mathematical models. The analysis is augmented by the examination of geographic heterogeneity of COVID-19 at the departmental level along with the investigation of mobility and social media trends. Overall, the national and regional reproduction numbers show sustained disease transmission during the early phase of the pandemic, exhibiting sub-exponential growth dynamics. Whereas the most recent estimates of reproduction number indicate disease containment, with Rt<1.0 as of October 31, 2021. On the forecasting front, the sub-epidemic model performs best at capturing the 30-day ahead COVID-19 trajectory compared to the Richards and generalized logistic growth model. Nevertheless, the spatial variability in the incidence rate patterns across different departments can be grouped into four distinct clusters. As the case incidence surged in July 2020, an increase in mobility patterns was also observed. On the contrary, a spike in the number of tweets indicating the stay-at-home orders was observed in November 2020 when the case incidence had already plateaued, indicating the pandemic fatigue in the country.
Colombia announced the first case of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 on March 6, 2020. Since then, the country has reported a total of 5,002,387 cases and 127,258 deaths as of October 31, 2021. The aggressive transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 motivate an investigation of COVID-19 at the national and regional levels in Colombia. We utilize the case incidence and mortality data to estimate the transmission potential and generate short-term forecasts of the COVID-19 pandemic to inform the public health policies using previously validated mathematical models. The analysis is augmented by the examination of geographic heterogeneity of COVID-19 at the departmental level along with the investigation of mobility and social media trends. Overall, the national and regional reproduction numbers show sustained disease transmission during the early phase of the pandemic, exhibiting sub-exponential growth dynamics. Whereas the most recent estimates of reproduction number indicate disease containment, with Rt<1.0 as of October 31, 2021. On the forecasting front, the sub-epidemic model performs best at capturing the 30-day ahead COVID-19 trajectory compared to the Richards and generalized logistic growth model. Nevertheless, the spatial variability in the incidence rate patterns across different departments can be grouped into four distinct clusters. As the case incidence surged in July 2020, an increase in mobility patterns was also observed. On the contrary, a spike in the number of tweets indicating the stay-at-home orders was observed in November 2020 when the case incidence had already plateaued, indicating the pandemic fatigue in the country.
Colombia announced the first case of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 on March 6, 2020. Since then, the country has reported a total of 5,002,387 cases and 127,258 deaths as of October 31, 2021. The aggressive transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 motivate an investigation of COVID-19 at the national and regional levels in Colombia. We utilize the case incidence and mortality data to estimate the transmission potential and generate short-term forecasts of the COVID-19 pandemic to inform the public health policies using previously validated mathematical models. The analysis is augmented by the examination of geographic heterogeneity of COVID-19 at the departmental level along with the investigation of mobility and social media trends. Overall, the national and regional reproduction numbers show sustained disease transmission during the early phase of the pandemic, exhibiting sub-exponential growth dynamics. Whereas the most recent estimates of reproduction number indicate disease containment, with R.sub.t <1.0 as of October 31, 2021. On the forecasting front, the sub-epidemic model performs best at capturing the 30-day ahead COVID-19 trajectory compared to the Richards and generalized logistic growth model. Nevertheless, the spatial variability in the incidence rate patterns across different departments can be grouped into four distinct clusters. As the case incidence surged in July 2020, an increase in mobility patterns was also observed. On the contrary, a spike in the number of tweets indicating the stay-at-home orders was observed in November 2020 when the case incidence had already plateaued, indicating the pandemic fatigue in the country.
Colombia announced the first case of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 on March 6, 2020. Since then, the country has reported a total of 5,002,387 cases and 127,258 deaths as of October 31, 2021. The aggressive transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 motivate an investigation of COVID-19 at the national and regional levels in Colombia. We utilize the case incidence and mortality data to estimate the transmission potential and generate short-term forecasts of the COVID-19 pandemic to inform the public health policies using previously validated mathematical models. The analysis is augmented by the examination of geographic heterogeneity of COVID-19 at the departmental level along with the investigation of mobility and social media trends. Overall, the national and regional reproduction numbers show sustained disease transmission during the early phase of the pandemic, exhibiting sub-exponential growth dynamics. Whereas the most recent estimates of reproduction number indicate disease containment, with R t <1.0 as of October 31, 2021. On the forecasting front, the sub-epidemic model performs best at capturing the 30-day ahead COVID-19 trajectory compared to the Richards and generalized logistic growth model. Nevertheless, the spatial variability in the incidence rate patterns across different departments can be grouped into four distinct clusters. As the case incidence surged in July 2020, an increase in mobility patterns was also observed. On the contrary, a spike in the number of tweets indicating the stay-at-home orders was observed in November 2020 when the case incidence had already plateaued, indicating the pandemic fatigue in the country. As the COVID-19 pandemic continues to spread across Colombia, studies highlighting the intensity of the pandemic have become imperative for appropriate resource allocation and informing public health policies. In this study we utilize mathematical models to infer the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 at the regional and national level as well as short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 epidemic trajectory. Moreover, we examine the geographic heterogeneity of the COVID-19 case incidence in Colombia along with the analysis of mobility and social media trends in relation to the observed COVID-19 case incidence in the country. The estimates of reproduction numbers at the national and regional level show a decline in disease transmission as of October 31, 2021. Moreover, the 30-day ahead short-term forecasts for the most recent time-period (October 2-October 31, 2021) generated using the mathematical models needs to be interpreted with caution as the single peak models point towards a sustained decline in case incidence contrary to the sub-epidemic wave model. Nevertheless, the spatial analysis in Colombia shows distinct variations in incidence rate patterns across different departments which can be grouped into four distinct clusters. Moreover, the social media and mobility trends also explain the occurrence of case resurgences over time.
Colombia announced the first case of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 on March 6, 2020. Since then, the country has reported a total of 5,002,387 cases and 127,258 deaths as of October 31, 2021. The aggressive transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 motivate an investigation of COVID-19 at the national and regional levels in Colombia. We utilize the case incidence and mortality data to estimate the transmission potential and generate short-term forecasts of the COVID-19 pandemic to inform the public health policies using previously validated mathematical models. The analysis is augmented by the examination of geographic heterogeneity of COVID-19 at the departmental level along with the investigation of mobility and social media trends. Overall, the national and regional reproduction numbers show sustained disease transmission during the early phase of the pandemic, exhibiting sub-exponential growth dynamics. Whereas the most recent estimates of reproduction number indicate disease containment, with R t <1.0 as of October 31, 2021. On the forecasting front, the sub-epidemic model performs best at capturing the 30-day ahead COVID-19 trajectory compared to the Richards and generalized logistic growth model. Nevertheless, the spatial variability in the incidence rate patterns across different departments can be grouped into four distinct clusters. As the case incidence surged in July 2020, an increase in mobility patterns was also observed. On the contrary, a spike in the number of tweets indicating the stay-at-home orders was observed in November 2020 when the case incidence had already plateaued, indicating the pandemic fatigue in the country.
Audience Academic
Author Ofori, Sylvia K.
Chowell, Gerardo
Bürger, Raimund
Dahal, Sushma
Tariq, Amna
Chakhaia, Tsira
Fung, Isaac Chun-Hai
Prince, Olaseni
Ewing, Alexander
Kirpich, Alexander
Srivastava, Anuj
Banda, Juan M.
Hua, Xinyi
Lara-Díaz, Leidy Y.
Luo, Ruiyan
Shim, Eunha
Skums, Pavel
Salindri, Argita D.
Adeniyi, Ayotomiwa Ezekiel
AuthorAffiliation 4 Centro de Investigación en Ingeniería Matemática (CI 2 MA) and Departamento de Ingeniería Matemática, Universidad de Concepción, Concepción, Chile
3 Department of Computer Science, College of Arts and Sciences, Georgia State University, Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America
5 Department of Mathematics and Integrative Institute of Basic Sciences, Soongsil University, Seoul, Republic of Korea
University of Hong Kong, HONG KONG
2 Department of Biostatistics, Epidemiology and Environmental Health Sciences, Jiann-Ping Hsu College of Public Health, Georgia Southern University, Statesboro, Georgia, United States of America
6 Department of Statistics, Florida State University, Tallahassee, Florida, United States of America
1 Department of Population Health Sciences, School of Public Health, Georgia State University, Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America
AuthorAffiliation_xml – name: 4 Centro de Investigación en Ingeniería Matemática (CI 2 MA) and Departamento de Ingeniería Matemática, Universidad de Concepción, Concepción, Chile
– name: 6 Department of Statistics, Florida State University, Tallahassee, Florida, United States of America
– name: 5 Department of Mathematics and Integrative Institute of Basic Sciences, Soongsil University, Seoul, Republic of Korea
– name: 1 Department of Population Health Sciences, School of Public Health, Georgia State University, Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America
– name: 2 Department of Biostatistics, Epidemiology and Environmental Health Sciences, Jiann-Ping Hsu College of Public Health, Georgia Southern University, Statesboro, Georgia, United States of America
– name: 3 Department of Computer Science, College of Arts and Sciences, Georgia State University, Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America
– name: University of Hong Kong, HONG KONG
Author_xml – sequence: 1
  givenname: Amna
  orcidid: 0000-0003-2344-5398
  surname: Tariq
  fullname: Tariq, Amna
– sequence: 2
  givenname: Tsira
  orcidid: 0000-0002-8210-3032
  surname: Chakhaia
  fullname: Chakhaia, Tsira
– sequence: 3
  givenname: Sushma
  surname: Dahal
  fullname: Dahal, Sushma
– sequence: 4
  givenname: Alexander
  surname: Ewing
  fullname: Ewing, Alexander
– sequence: 5
  givenname: Xinyi
  orcidid: 0000-0001-9368-1228
  surname: Hua
  fullname: Hua, Xinyi
– sequence: 6
  givenname: Sylvia K.
  orcidid: 0000-0002-9961-9975
  surname: Ofori
  fullname: Ofori, Sylvia K.
– sequence: 7
  givenname: Olaseni
  orcidid: 0000-0001-6714-6782
  surname: Prince
  fullname: Prince, Olaseni
– sequence: 8
  givenname: Argita D.
  orcidid: 0000-0003-0962-0348
  surname: Salindri
  fullname: Salindri, Argita D.
– sequence: 9
  givenname: Ayotomiwa Ezekiel
  orcidid: 0000-0002-0673-0026
  surname: Adeniyi
  fullname: Adeniyi, Ayotomiwa Ezekiel
– sequence: 10
  givenname: Juan M.
  orcidid: 0000-0001-8499-824X
  surname: Banda
  fullname: Banda, Juan M.
– sequence: 11
  givenname: Pavel
  orcidid: 0000-0003-4007-5624
  surname: Skums
  fullname: Skums, Pavel
– sequence: 12
  givenname: Ruiyan
  orcidid: 0000-0003-4365-1148
  surname: Luo
  fullname: Luo, Ruiyan
– sequence: 13
  givenname: Leidy Y.
  orcidid: 0000-0003-1849-518X
  surname: Lara-Díaz
  fullname: Lara-Díaz, Leidy Y.
– sequence: 14
  givenname: Raimund
  orcidid: 0000-0001-9298-8981
  surname: Bürger
  fullname: Bürger, Raimund
– sequence: 15
  givenname: Isaac Chun-Hai
  orcidid: 0000-0001-5496-2529
  surname: Fung
  fullname: Fung, Isaac Chun-Hai
– sequence: 16
  givenname: Eunha
  orcidid: 0000-0003-3135-6360
  surname: Shim
  fullname: Shim, Eunha
– sequence: 17
  givenname: Alexander
  surname: Kirpich
  fullname: Kirpich, Alexander
– sequence: 18
  givenname: Anuj
  surname: Srivastava
  fullname: Srivastava, Anuj
– sequence: 19
  givenname: Gerardo
  surname: Chowell
  fullname: Chowell, Gerardo
BackLink https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35245285$$D View this record in MEDLINE/PubMed
BookMark eNp9ks2O0zAUhSM0iPmBN0AQCQmxoMV27MSeBVJV8TPSSGxgbTmO03rk2MVOitjxDrwhT8JNm6J2NEJZ2PH9zrF9fS6zMx-8ybLnGM1xUeF3d2GIXrn5xvfNHCGMCOGPsgssCjYjVcHOjubn2WVKdwgxwTh-kp0XjFBGOLvIfix8bv3WpN6uVG-Dz0Obpw1MlZv1ptuEqFwO_72JPuXKN_kmmsbqkU0j3K9NrkMMXm1tHFJOEBYg8I3prAbvfBlc6Gqr3kKJoD-_fsOAn2aPW-WSeTaNV9m3jx--Lj_Pbr98ulkubme6JLSfFW3BGl4wSkFTtopUoqhrZbjCyKim1IZrRYmoaiEIZkpwZNoaCoYYPsJX2cu978aFJKeeJUlKhjFDBUJA3OyJJqg7uYm2U_GnDMrK3UKIK6lib7UzktdC07Y1BakIVariumUUVzAThpa8Aq_3025D3ZlGG99D-05MTyveruUqbCUXpCSoBIM3k0EM3wd4FdnZpI1zypswjOcuSkwrjCmgr-6hD99uolYKLmB9G2BfPZrKRSmEQIKJkZo_QMG3e0TIXWth_UTw-kiwNsr16xTcsEvFKfjiuCP_WnFIIADXe0DHkFI0rdS23yURjmCdxEiOcT9cTo5xl1PcQUzviQ_-_5X9BeDJBTs
CitedBy_id crossref_primary_10_1080_17513758_2023_2256774
crossref_primary_10_1002_ijop_13135
crossref_primary_10_1371_journal_pone_0280917
crossref_primary_10_1038_s41598_024_51852_8
crossref_primary_10_1186_s12874_024_02241_2
crossref_primary_10_1016_j_idm_2024_02_001
crossref_primary_10_1016_j_heliyon_2024_e39725
crossref_primary_10_1371_journal_pcbi_1010602
Cites_doi 10.1186/s12916-020-01615-9
10.1198/016214506000001437
10.1016/j.epidem.2019.01.003
10.1057/s41271-020-00269-4
10.1007/s41109-020-00349-0
10.1038/s41467-021-25038-z
10.1093/nar/gkh340
10.7189/jogh.10.020372
10.1016/j.hlpt.2020.08.014
10.1007/s10393-017-1293-2
10.1007/978-1-4614-6849-3
10.1098/rstb.2020.0265
10.1371/journal.pntd.0009070
10.1016/j.plrev.2016.07.005
10.1093/aje/kwt133
10.1186/s12916-015-0450-0
10.1016/j.epidem.2016.01.002
10.1016/j.epidem.2016.11.002
10.1093/jxb/10.2.290
10.1371/journal.pone.0254660
10.1038/s41591-020-0869-5
10.1038/s41591-020-1132-9
10.1007/978-1-4939-4020-2
10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008618
10.1186/s12916-019-1406-6
10.1093/aje/kwh255
10.1093/molbev/msw054
10.1111/rsp3.12340
10.3934/mbe.2019212
10.1098/rsif.2009.0153
10.1371/journal.pone.0000758
10.1038/s41591-020-0952-y
10.1155/2020/8867316
10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008409
10.1038/d41586-021-00140-w
10.1016/j.mbs.2021.108558
10.1016/S1473-3099(20)30303-0
10.1016/j.ijid.2020.03.031
10.1098/rstb.2016.0371
10.3390/epidemiologia2030024
10.1371/journal.pone.0254826
10.1093/oso/9780198545996.001.0001
10.1016/j.tmaid.2018.04.004
10.2807/ese.15.24.19591-en
10.1093/ve/vey016
10.1016/S0140-6736(21)00298-1
10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.17.2000257
10.1016/S0140-6736(20)31638-X
ContentType Journal Article
Copyright COPYRIGHT 2022 Public Library of Science
2022 Tariq et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (the “License”), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. Notwithstanding the ProQuest Terms and Conditions, you may use this content in accordance with the terms of the License.
2022 Tariq et al 2022 Tariq et al
Copyright_xml – notice: COPYRIGHT 2022 Public Library of Science
– notice: 2022 Tariq et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (the “License”), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. Notwithstanding the ProQuest Terms and Conditions, you may use this content in accordance with the terms of the License.
– notice: 2022 Tariq et al 2022 Tariq et al
DBID AAYXX
CITATION
CGR
CUY
CVF
ECM
EIF
NPM
3V.
7QL
7SS
7T2
7T7
7U9
7X7
7XB
88E
8C1
8FD
8FI
8FJ
8FK
ABUWG
AEUYN
AFKRA
AZQEC
BENPR
C1K
CCPQU
COVID
DWQXO
F1W
FR3
FYUFA
GHDGH
H94
H95
H97
K9.
L.G
M0S
M1P
M7N
P64
PHGZM
PHGZT
PIMPY
PJZUB
PKEHL
PPXIY
PQEST
PQQKQ
PQUKI
PRINS
7X8
5PM
DOA
DOI 10.1371/journal.pntd.0010228
DatabaseName CrossRef
Medline
MEDLINE
MEDLINE (Ovid)
MEDLINE
MEDLINE
PubMed
ProQuest Central (Corporate)
Bacteriology Abstracts (Microbiology B)
Entomology Abstracts (Full archive)
Health and Safety Science Abstracts (Full archive)
Industrial and Applied Microbiology Abstracts (Microbiology A)
Virology and AIDS Abstracts
Health & Medical Collection
ProQuest Central (purchase pre-March 2016)
Medical Database (Alumni Edition)
Public Health Database
Technology Research Database
Hospital Premium Collection
Hospital Premium Collection (Alumni Edition)
ProQuest Central (Alumni) (purchase pre-March 2016)
ProQuest Central (Alumni)
ProQuest One Sustainability (subscription)
ProQuest Central UK/Ireland
ProQuest Central Essentials
ProQuest Central
Environmental Sciences and Pollution Management
ProQuest One Community College
Coronavirus Research Database
ProQuest Central Korea
ASFA: Aquatic Sciences and Fisheries Abstracts
Engineering Research Database
Health Research Premium Collection
Health Research Premium Collection (Alumni)
AIDS and Cancer Research Abstracts
Aquatic Science & Fisheries Abstracts (ASFA) 1: Biological Sciences & Living Resources
Aquatic Science & Fisheries Abstracts (ASFA) 3: Aquatic Pollution & Environmental Quality
ProQuest Health & Medical Complete (Alumni)
Aquatic Science & Fisheries Abstracts (ASFA) Professional
ProQuest Health & Medical Collection
Medical Database
Algology Mycology and Protozoology Abstracts (Microbiology C)
Biotechnology and BioEngineering Abstracts
ProQuest Central Premium
ProQuest One Academic
Publicly Available Content Database
ProQuest Health & Medical Research Collection
ProQuest One Academic Middle East (New)
ProQuest One Health & Nursing
ProQuest One Academic Eastern Edition (DO NOT USE)
ProQuest One Academic
ProQuest One Academic UKI Edition
ProQuest Central China
MEDLINE - Academic
PubMed Central (Full Participant titles)
DOAJ Directory of Open Access Journals
DatabaseTitle CrossRef
MEDLINE
Medline Complete
MEDLINE with Full Text
PubMed
MEDLINE (Ovid)
Publicly Available Content Database
Aquatic Science & Fisheries Abstracts (ASFA) Professional
Technology Research Database
ProQuest One Academic Middle East (New)
ProQuest Central Essentials
ProQuest Health & Medical Complete (Alumni)
ProQuest Central (Alumni Edition)
ProQuest One Community College
ProQuest One Health & Nursing
ProQuest Central China
Aquatic Science & Fisheries Abstracts (ASFA) 3: Aquatic Pollution & Environmental Quality
Environmental Sciences and Pollution Management
ProQuest Central
ProQuest One Sustainability
Health Research Premium Collection
Health and Medicine Complete (Alumni Edition)
ProQuest Central Korea
Bacteriology Abstracts (Microbiology B)
Algology Mycology and Protozoology Abstracts (Microbiology C)
Health & Medical Research Collection
AIDS and Cancer Research Abstracts
Health & Safety Science Abstracts
Aquatic Science & Fisheries Abstracts (ASFA) 1: Biological Sciences & Living Resources
Industrial and Applied Microbiology Abstracts (Microbiology A)
ProQuest Central (New)
ProQuest Medical Library (Alumni)
ProQuest Public Health
Virology and AIDS Abstracts
ProQuest One Academic Eastern Edition
Coronavirus Research Database
ProQuest Hospital Collection
Health Research Premium Collection (Alumni)
ProQuest Hospital Collection (Alumni)
Biotechnology and BioEngineering Abstracts
Entomology Abstracts
ProQuest Health & Medical Complete
ProQuest Medical Library
ProQuest One Academic UKI Edition
ASFA: Aquatic Sciences and Fisheries Abstracts
Engineering Research Database
ProQuest One Academic
ProQuest One Academic (New)
ProQuest Central (Alumni)
MEDLINE - Academic
DatabaseTitleList MEDLINE - Academic
Publicly Available Content Database


CrossRef


MEDLINE
Database_xml – sequence: 1
  dbid: DOA
  name: DOAJ Directory of Open Access Journals
  url: https://www.doaj.org/
  sourceTypes: Open Website
– sequence: 2
  dbid: NPM
  name: PubMed
  url: https://proxy.k.utb.cz/login?url=http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?db=PubMed
  sourceTypes: Index Database
– sequence: 3
  dbid: EIF
  name: MEDLINE
  url: https://proxy.k.utb.cz/login?url=https://www.webofscience.com/wos/medline/basic-search
  sourceTypes: Index Database
– sequence: 4
  dbid: BENPR
  name: ProQuest Central
  url: https://www.proquest.com/central
  sourceTypes: Aggregation Database
DeliveryMethod fulltext_linktorsrc
Discipline Medicine
Public Health
DocumentTitleAlternate Spatial-temporal patterns and predictions of the COVID-19 pandemic in Colombia, 2020-2021
EISSN 1935-2735
ExternalDocumentID 2651150300
oai_doaj_org_article_8b9c4ffe32724aa78cf5417aa79e4687
PMC8926206
A699909590
35245285
10_1371_journal_pntd_0010228
Genre Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Journal Article
Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural
GeographicLocations Colombia
Brazil
Mexico
Latin America
GeographicLocations_xml – name: Colombia
– name: Mexico
– name: Latin America
– name: Brazil
GrantInformation_xml – fundername: NIA NIH HHS
  grantid: P30 AG059307
– fundername: FIC NIH HHS
  grantid: D43 TW007124
– fundername: NIBIB NIH HHS
  grantid: R01 EB025022
– fundername: NIGMS NIH HHS
  grantid: R01 GM130900
– fundername: ;
– fundername: ;
  grantid: 2018R1C1B6001723
– fundername: ;
  grantid: Fondecyt project 1210610
– fundername: ;
  grantid: 1610429
– fundername: ;
  grantid: 2021R1A6A1A10044154
– fundername: ;
  grantid: ANID/MEC/80170119
– fundername: ;
  grantid: FB210005
– fundername: ;
  grantid: 1633381
– fundername: ;
  grantid: 2047828
– fundername: ;
  grantid: scholarship ANID-PCHA/Doctorado Nacional/2019-21190640 and Anillo project ANID/PIA/ACT210030
GroupedDBID ---
123
29O
2WC
53G
5VS
7X7
88E
8C1
8FI
8FJ
AAFWJ
AAUCC
AAWOE
AAYXX
ABDBF
ABUWG
ACGFO
ACIHN
ACPRK
ACUHS
ADBBV
AEAQA
AENEX
AEUYN
AFKRA
AFPKN
AFRAH
AHMBA
ALIPV
ALMA_UNASSIGNED_HOLDINGS
AOIJS
BAWUL
BCNDV
BENPR
BPHCQ
BVXVI
BWKFM
CCPQU
CITATION
CS3
DIK
DU5
E3Z
EAP
EAS
EBD
ECGQY
EMOBN
ESX
F5P
FPL
FYUFA
GROUPED_DOAJ
GX1
HMCUK
HYE
IAO
IHR
IHW
ITC
KQ8
M1P
M48
O5R
O5S
OK1
OVT
P2P
PGMZT
PHGZM
PHGZT
PIMPY
PQQKQ
PROAC
PSQYO
PV9
RNS
RPM
RZL
SV3
TR2
TUS
UKHRP
ADRAZ
CGR
CUY
CVF
ECM
EIF
H13
IPNFZ
NPM
PJZUB
PPXIY
RIG
WOQ
PMFND
3V.
7QL
7SS
7T2
7T7
7U9
7XB
8FD
8FK
AZQEC
C1K
COVID
DWQXO
F1W
FR3
H94
H95
H97
K9.
L.G
M7N
P64
PKEHL
PQEST
PQUKI
PRINS
7X8
5PM
PUEGO
-
AAPBV
ABPTK
ADACO
BBAFP
M~E
ID FETCH-LOGICAL-c624t-3f35d835440216fa2793bbae8a10ead6ce8ca4297b99215a980efbad6e2e82793
IEDL.DBID M48
ISSN 1935-2735
1935-2727
IngestDate Sun May 01 00:10:39 EDT 2022
Wed Aug 27 01:13:53 EDT 2025
Thu Aug 21 18:11:04 EDT 2025
Fri Jul 11 10:48:48 EDT 2025
Fri Jul 25 04:42:48 EDT 2025
Tue Jun 17 21:01:43 EDT 2025
Tue Jun 10 20:30:19 EDT 2025
Thu May 22 21:21:40 EDT 2025
Mon Jul 21 06:07:43 EDT 2025
Thu Apr 24 23:05:34 EDT 2025
Tue Jul 01 00:57:54 EDT 2025
IsDoiOpenAccess true
IsOpenAccess true
IsPeerReviewed true
IsScholarly true
Issue 3
Language English
License This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
Creative Commons Attribution License
LinkModel DirectLink
MergedId FETCHMERGED-LOGICAL-c624t-3f35d835440216fa2793bbae8a10ead6ce8ca4297b99215a980efbad6e2e82793
Notes new_version
ObjectType-Article-1
SourceType-Scholarly Journals-1
ObjectType-Feature-2
content type line 14
content type line 23
The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.
ORCID 0000-0003-4365-1148
0000-0003-0962-0348
0000-0001-9298-8981
0000-0003-3135-6360
0000-0002-8210-3032
0000-0001-6714-6782
0000-0001-9368-1228
0000-0002-9961-9975
0000-0001-8499-824X
0000-0003-4007-5624
0000-0002-0673-0026
0000-0003-1849-518X
0000-0001-5496-2529
0000-0003-2344-5398
OpenAccessLink http://journals.scholarsportal.info/openUrl.xqy?doi=10.1371/journal.pntd.0010228
PMID 35245285
PQID 2651150300
PQPubID 1436337
ParticipantIDs plos_journals_2651150300
doaj_primary_oai_doaj_org_article_8b9c4ffe32724aa78cf5417aa79e4687
pubmedcentral_primary_oai_pubmedcentral_nih_gov_8926206
proquest_miscellaneous_2636147114
proquest_journals_2651150300
gale_infotracmisc_A699909590
gale_infotracacademiconefile_A699909590
gale_healthsolutions_A699909590
pubmed_primary_35245285
crossref_citationtrail_10_1371_journal_pntd_0010228
crossref_primary_10_1371_journal_pntd_0010228
ProviderPackageCode CITATION
AAYXX
PublicationCentury 2000
PublicationDate 2022-03-01
PublicationDateYYYYMMDD 2022-03-01
PublicationDate_xml – month: 03
  year: 2022
  text: 2022-03-01
  day: 01
PublicationDecade 2020
PublicationPlace United States
PublicationPlace_xml – name: United States
– name: San Francisco
– name: San Francisco, CA USA
PublicationTitle PLoS neglected tropical diseases
PublicationTitleAlternate PLoS Negl Trop Dis
PublicationYear 2022
Publisher Public Library of Science
Public Library of Science (PLoS)
Publisher_xml – name: Public Library of Science
– name: Public Library of Science (PLoS)
References C. Fraser (pntd.0010228.ref065) 2007; 2
X He (pntd.0010228.ref067) 2020; 26
FJ Richards (pntd.0010228.ref052) 1959; 10
R Laajaj (pntd.0010228.ref024) 2021; 12
J Bracher (pntd.0010228.ref055) 2021; 17
J.M. Banda (pntd.0010228.ref045) 2021; 2
Y Shu (pntd.0010228.ref070) 2017; 22
IF Miller (pntd.0010228.ref010) 2020; 26
pntd.0010228.ref081
pntd.0010228.ref082
A Cori (pntd.0010228.ref069) 2013; 178
G Chowell (pntd.0010228.ref008) 2016; 18
pntd.0010228.ref041
pntd.0010228.ref042
pntd.0010228.ref043
T Ganyani (pntd.0010228.ref060) 2020; 25
pntd.0010228.ref044
RC Reiner (pntd.0010228.ref002) 2021; 27
B Pell (pntd.0010228.ref038) 2018; 22
pntd.0010228.ref006
C Viboud (pntd.0010228.ref059) 2016; 15
pntd.0010228.ref007
JM Shultz (pntd.0010228.ref028) 2021; 3
A Tariq (pntd.0010228.ref049) 2021; 16
MA Suchard (pntd.0010228.ref074) 2018; 4
AM Trejos-Herrera (pntd.0010228.ref020) 2020; 10
A Cori (pntd.0010228.ref063) 2017; 372
G Chowell (pntd.0010228.ref046) 2019; 17
A Tariq (pntd.0010228.ref039) 2021; 15
G. Chowell (pntd.0010228.ref061) 2017; 2
J Wallinga (pntd.0010228.ref068) 2004; 160
S Paine (pntd.0010228.ref064) 2010; 15
F Wu (pntd.0010228.ref071) 2020
pntd.0010228.ref015
G Chowell (pntd.0010228.ref037) 2016; 8
A. Martinez-Valle (pntd.0010228.ref087) 2021; 42
A Tariq (pntd.0010228.ref062) 2019; 26
T. Burki (pntd.0010228.ref004) 2021; 397
R Bürger (pntd.0010228.ref051) 2021; 334
RC Edgar (pntd.0010228.ref072) 2004; 32
L. Mercado (pntd.0010228.ref021) 2020
S Roy (pntd.0010228.ref011) 2021; 6
DW Shanafelt (pntd.0010228.ref047) 2018; 15
J Arellana (pntd.0010228.ref019) 2020; 2020
R Bürger (pntd.0010228.ref048) 2019; 16
KM Gostic (pntd.0010228.ref080) 2020; 16
pntd.0010228.ref022
N. Kapitsinis (pntd.0010228.ref009) 2020; 12
pntd.0010228.ref023
pntd.0010228.ref025
pntd.0010228.ref026
CI Mendoza (pntd.0010228.ref084) 2021; 9
TA Press (pntd.0010228.ref016) 2020
pntd.0010228.ref027
T Gneiting (pntd.0010228.ref054) 2007; 102
RM Anderson (pntd.0010228.ref057) 1991
KC Chong (pntd.0010228.ref066) 2018; 23
S Kumar (pntd.0010228.ref073) 2016; 33
G Chowell (pntd.0010228.ref056) 2015; 13
FHC Felix (pntd.0010228.ref085) 2020
H Nishiura (pntd.0010228.ref058) 2010; 7
AR Varela (pntd.0010228.ref013) 2021; 2
A Srivastava (pntd.0010228.ref076) 2020
E Shim (pntd.0010228.ref086) 2020; 93
A Srivastava (pntd.0010228.ref077) 2016
M Kuhn (pntd.0010228.ref053) 2013
Q Li (pntd.0010228.ref075) 2020
MA Benítez (pntd.0010228.ref014) 2020; 9
M Malta (pntd.0010228.ref033) 2021; 39
CV Munayco (pntd.0010228.ref050) 2020; 5
L Schüler (pntd.0010228.ref003) 2021; 16
JP Daniels (pntd.0010228.ref018) 2020; 396
JP Daniels (pntd.0010228.ref029) 2021
pntd.0010228.ref030
pntd.0010228.ref031
E Gonzalez (pntd.0010228.ref017) 2021
pntd.0010228.ref032
JM Read (pntd.0010228.ref001) 2021; 376
S. Mallapaty (pntd.0010228.ref005) 2021; 589
pntd.0010228.ref034
pntd.0010228.ref078
pntd.0010228.ref035
pntd.0010228.ref079
pntd.0010228.ref036
T. Burki (pntd.0010228.ref012) 2020; 20
G Chowell (pntd.0010228.ref083) 2015; 7
A Tariq (pntd.0010228.ref040) 2020; 18
References_xml – volume: 18
  start-page: 166
  issue: 1
  year: 2020
  ident: pntd.0010228.ref040
  article-title: Real-time monitoring the transmission potential of COVID-19 in Singapore, March 2020
  publication-title: BMC Medicine
  doi: 10.1186/s12916-020-01615-9
– volume: 102
  start-page: 359
  issue: 477
  year: 2007
  ident: pntd.0010228.ref054
  article-title: Strictly Proper Scoring Rules, Prediction, and Estimation
  publication-title: J Am Stat Assoc
  doi: 10.1198/016214506000001437
– volume: 26
  start-page: 128
  year: 2019
  ident: pntd.0010228.ref062
  article-title: Assessing reporting delays and the effective reproduction number: The Ebola epidemic in DRC, May 2018-January 2019.
  publication-title: Epidemics
  doi: 10.1016/j.epidem.2019.01.003
– volume: 42
  start-page: 27
  issue: 1
  year: 2021
  ident: pntd.0010228.ref087
  article-title: Public health matters: why is Latin America struggling in addressing the pandemic?
  publication-title: J Public Health Policy
  doi: 10.1057/s41271-020-00269-4
– volume: 6
  start-page: 2
  issue: 1
  year: 2021
  ident: pntd.0010228.ref011
  article-title: Towards Dynamic lockdown strategies controlling pandemic spread under healthcare resource budget
  publication-title: Appl Net Sci
  doi: 10.1007/s41109-020-00349-0
– volume: 12
  start-page: 4726
  issue: 1
  year: 2021
  ident: pntd.0010228.ref024
  article-title: COVID-19 spread, detection, and dynamics in Bogota, Colombia
  publication-title: Nat Commun
  doi: 10.1038/s41467-021-25038-z
– volume: 32
  start-page: 1792
  issue: 5
  year: 2004
  ident: pntd.0010228.ref072
  article-title: MUSCLE: multiple sequence alignment with high accuracy and high throughput
  publication-title: Nucleic Acids Res
  doi: 10.1093/nar/gkh340
– volume: 10
  start-page: 020372
  issue: 2
  year: 2020
  ident: pntd.0010228.ref020
  article-title: Coronavirus in Colombia: Stigma and quarantine
  publication-title: J Glob Health
  doi: 10.7189/jogh.10.020372
– volume: 9
  start-page: 525
  issue: 4
  year: 2020
  ident: pntd.0010228.ref014
  article-title: Responses to COVID-19 in five Latin American countries
  publication-title: Health Policy Technol.
  doi: 10.1016/j.hlpt.2020.08.014
– ident: pntd.0010228.ref035
– volume: 15
  start-page: 338
  issue: 2
  year: 2018
  ident: pntd.0010228.ref047
  article-title: Forecasting the 2001 Foot-and-Mouth Disease Epidemic in the UK
  publication-title: EcoHealth.
  doi: 10.1007/s10393-017-1293-2
– ident: pntd.0010228.ref031
– volume-title: Applied predictive modeling
  year: 2013
  ident: pntd.0010228.ref053
  doi: 10.1007/978-1-4614-6849-3
– ident: pntd.0010228.ref015
– volume: 376
  start-page: 20200265
  issue: 1829
  year: 2021
  ident: pntd.0010228.ref001
  article-title: Novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV (COVID-19): early estimation of epidemiological parameters and epidemic size estimates
  publication-title: Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci
  doi: 10.1098/rstb.2020.0265
– volume: 15
  start-page: e0009070
  issue: 1
  year: 2021
  ident: pntd.0010228.ref039
  article-title: Transmission dynamics and control of COVID-19 in Chile, March-October, 2020
  publication-title: PLoS Neg Trop Dis.
  doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0009070
– volume: 18
  start-page: 66
  year: 2016
  ident: pntd.0010228.ref008
  article-title: Mathematical models to characterize early epidemic growth: A review
  publication-title: Phys Life Rev
  doi: 10.1016/j.plrev.2016.07.005
– volume: 2
  start-page: 379
  issue: 3
  year: 2017
  ident: pntd.0010228.ref061
  article-title: Fitting dynamic models to epidemic outbreaks with quantified uncertainty: A primer for parameter uncertainty, identifiability, and forecasts
  publication-title: Infect Dis Model
– volume: 8
  year: 2016
  ident: pntd.0010228.ref037
  article-title: Using Phenomenological Models to Characterize Transmissibility and Forecast Patterns and Final Burden of Zika Epidemics
  publication-title: PLoS Curr
– volume: 3
  year: 2021
  ident: pntd.0010228.ref028
  article-title: Complex correlates of Colombia’s COVID-19 surge
  publication-title: Lancet Reg Health Am
– ident: pntd.0010228.ref022
– ident: pntd.0010228.ref041
– ident: pntd.0010228.ref026
– year: 2021
  ident: pntd.0010228.ref029
  article-title: ‘Everything is collapsing’: Colombia battles third Covid wave amid unrest
  publication-title: The Guardian
– volume: 178
  start-page: 1505
  issue: 9
  year: 2013
  ident: pntd.0010228.ref069
  article-title: A New Framework and Software to Estimate Time-Varying Reproduction Numbers During Epidemics
  publication-title: Am J Epidemiol
  doi: 10.1093/aje/kwt133
– volume: 13
  start-page: 210
  issue: 1
  year: 2015
  ident: pntd.0010228.ref056
  article-title: Transmission characteristics of MERS and SARS in the healthcare setting: a comparative study
  publication-title: BMC Med
  doi: 10.1186/s12916-015-0450-0
– volume: 15
  start-page: 27
  year: 2016
  ident: pntd.0010228.ref059
  article-title: A generalized-growth model to characterize the early ascending phase of infectious disease outbreaks
  publication-title: Epidemics
  doi: 10.1016/j.epidem.2016.01.002
– ident: pntd.0010228.ref030
– ident: pntd.0010228.ref034
– volume: 22
  start-page: 62
  year: 2018
  ident: pntd.0010228.ref038
  article-title: Using phenomenological models for forecasting the 2015 Ebola challenge
  publication-title: Epidemics
  doi: 10.1016/j.epidem.2016.11.002
– volume: 10
  start-page: 290
  issue: 29
  year: 1959
  ident: pntd.0010228.ref052
  article-title: A Flexible Growth Function for Empirical Use
  publication-title: J Exp Bot
  doi: 10.1093/jxb/10.2.290
– volume: 16
  start-page: e0254660
  issue: 8
  year: 2021
  ident: pntd.0010228.ref003
  article-title: Data driven high resolution modeling and spatial analyses of the COVID-19 pandemic in Germany
  publication-title: PLoS ONE
  doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0254660
– volume: 26
  start-page: 672
  issue: 5
  year: 2020
  ident: pntd.0010228.ref067
  article-title: Temporal dynamics in viral shedding and transmissibility of COVID-19
  publication-title: Nat Med
  doi: 10.1038/s41591-020-0869-5
– year: 2020
  ident: pntd.0010228.ref076
  article-title: Understanding Spatial Heterogeneity of COVID-19 Pandemic Using Shape Analysis of Growth Rate Curves
  publication-title: Preprint medRxiv.
– volume: 27
  start-page: 94
  issue: 1
  year: 2021
  ident: pntd.0010228.ref002
  article-title: Modeling COVID-19 scenarios for the United States
  publication-title: Nat Med
  doi: 10.1038/s41591-020-1132-9
– volume-title: Functional and shape data analysis
  year: 2016
  ident: pntd.0010228.ref077
  doi: 10.1007/978-1-4939-4020-2
– ident: pntd.0010228.ref082
– ident: pntd.0010228.ref044
– volume: 17
  start-page: e1008618
  issue: 2
  year: 2021
  ident: pntd.0010228.ref055
  article-title: Evaluating epidemic forecasts in an interval format
  publication-title: PLoS Comp Biol
  doi: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008618
– volume: 17
  start-page: 164
  issue: 1
  year: 2019
  ident: pntd.0010228.ref046
  article-title: A novel sub-epidemic modeling framework for short-term forecasting epidemic waves
  publication-title: BMC Med
  doi: 10.1186/s12916-019-1406-6
– volume: 160
  start-page: 509
  issue: 6
  year: 2004
  ident: pntd.0010228.ref068
  article-title: Different Epidemic Curves for Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Reveal Similar Impacts of Control Measures
  publication-title: Am J Epidemiol
  doi: 10.1093/aje/kwh255
– volume: 33
  start-page: 1870
  issue: 7
  year: 2016
  ident: pntd.0010228.ref073
  article-title: MEGA7: Molecular Evolutionary Genetics Analysis Version 7.0 for Bigger Datasets
  publication-title: Mol Biol Evol
  doi: 10.1093/molbev/msw054
– ident: pntd.0010228.ref006
– volume: 7
  year: 2015
  ident: pntd.0010228.ref083
  article-title: The Western Africa ebola virus disease epidemic exhibits both global exponential and local polynomial growth rates
  publication-title: PLoS Curr.
– ident: pntd.0010228.ref023
– ident: pntd.0010228.ref027
– volume: 12
  start-page: 1027
  issue: 6
  year: 2020
  ident: pntd.0010228.ref009
  article-title: The underlying factors of the COVID-19 spatially uneven spread. Initial evidence from regions in nine EU countries
  publication-title: Reg Sci Policy Pract
  doi: 10.1111/rsp3.12340
– year: 2020
  ident: pntd.0010228.ref075
  article-title: Early Transmission Dynamics in Wuhan, China, of Novel Coronavirus–Infected Pneumonia
  publication-title: New Eng J Med
– ident: pntd.0010228.ref079
– volume: 16
  start-page: 4250
  issue: 5
  year: 2019
  ident: pntd.0010228.ref048
  article-title: Comparative analysis of phenomenological growth models applied to epidemic outbreaks
  publication-title: Math Biosci Eng
  doi: 10.3934/mbe.2019212
– volume: 7
  start-page: 297
  issue: 43
  year: 2010
  ident: pntd.0010228.ref058
  article-title: The ideal reporting interval for an epidemic to objectively interpret the epidemiological time course
  publication-title: J R Soc Interface
  doi: 10.1098/rsif.2009.0153
– volume: 2
  start-page: e758
  issue: 8
  year: 2007
  ident: pntd.0010228.ref065
  article-title: Estimating Individual and Household Reproduction Numbers in an Emerging Epidemic
  publication-title: PLoS ONE
  doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0000758
– year: 2020
  ident: pntd.0010228.ref085
  article-title: Instantaneous R calculation for COVID-19 epidemic in Brazil.
  publication-title: medRxiv
– volume: 26
  start-page: 1212
  issue: 8
  year: 2020
  ident: pntd.0010228.ref010
  article-title: Disease and healthcare burden of COVID-19 in the United States
  publication-title: Nat Med
  doi: 10.1038/s41591-020-0952-y
– ident: pntd.0010228.ref081
– ident: pntd.0010228.ref043
– ident: pntd.0010228.ref007
– volume: 2020
  start-page: 8867316
  year: 2020
  ident: pntd.0010228.ref019
  article-title: COVID-19 outbreak in Colombia: An analysis of its impacts on transport systems
  publication-title: J Adv Transp
  doi: 10.1155/2020/8867316
– volume: 16
  start-page: e1008409
  issue: 12
  year: 2020
  ident: pntd.0010228.ref080
  article-title: Practical considerations for measuring the effective reproductive number, Rt
  publication-title: PLoS Comp Biol
  doi: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008409
– volume: 589
  start-page: 504
  year: 2021
  ident: pntd.0010228.ref005
  article-title: Are COVID vaccination programmes working? Scientists seek first clues
  publication-title: Nature
  doi: 10.1038/d41586-021-00140-w
– volume: 22
  start-page: 30494
  issue: 13
  year: 2017
  ident: pntd.0010228.ref070
  article-title: GISAID: Global initiative on sharing all influenza data—from vision to reality
  publication-title: Eurosurveillance
– ident: pntd.0010228.ref078
– volume: 334
  start-page: 108558
  year: 2021
  ident: pntd.0010228.ref051
  article-title: Measuring differences between phenomenological growth models applied to epidemiology
  publication-title: Math Biosci
  doi: 10.1016/j.mbs.2021.108558
– year: 2020
  ident: pntd.0010228.ref016
  article-title: Colombia reaches 1 million confirmed coronavirus cases
  publication-title: ABC News
– volume: 20
  start-page: 547
  issue: 5
  year: 2020
  ident: pntd.0010228.ref012
  article-title: COVID-19 in Latin America
  publication-title: Lancet Infect Dis
  doi: 10.1016/S1473-3099(20)30303-0
– volume: 93
  start-page: 339
  year: 2020
  ident: pntd.0010228.ref086
  article-title: Transmission potential and severity of COVID-19 in South Korea
  publication-title: Int Infect Dis
  doi: 10.1016/j.ijid.2020.03.031
– volume: 372
  start-page: 20160371
  issue: 1721
  year: 2017
  ident: pntd.0010228.ref063
  article-title: Key data for outbreak evaluation: building on the Ebola experience
  publication-title: Philos Trans R Soc Lond, B, Biolo Sci
  doi: 10.1098/rstb.2016.0371
– volume: 9
  issue: 324
  year: 2021
  ident: pntd.0010228.ref084
  article-title: Inhomogeneous Transmission and Asynchronic Mixing in the Spread of COVID-19 Epidemics
  publication-title: Front Phys.
– ident: pntd.0010228.ref036
– volume: 2
  start-page: 315
  year: 2021
  ident: pntd.0010228.ref045
  article-title: A Large-Scale COVID-19 Twitter Chatter Dataset for Open Scientific Research—An International Collaboration.
  publication-title: Epidemiologia
  doi: 10.3390/epidemiologia2030024
– volume: 2
  year: 2021
  ident: pntd.0010228.ref013
  article-title: Factors Associated With SARS-CoV-2 Infection in Bogota;, Colombia: Results From a Large Epidemiological Surveillance Study
  publication-title: Lancet Reg Health Am
– ident: pntd.0010228.ref032
– volume: 16
  start-page: e0254826
  issue: 7
  year: 2021
  ident: pntd.0010228.ref049
  article-title: Transmission dynamics and forecasts of the COVID-19 pandemic in Mexico, March-December 2020
  publication-title: PLoS ONE
  doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0254826
– year: 2021
  ident: pntd.0010228.ref017
  article-title: The Coronavirus in Latin America
  publication-title: AS/COA
– volume-title: Infectious Diseases of Humans
  year: 1991
  ident: pntd.0010228.ref057
  doi: 10.1093/oso/9780198545996.001.0001
– volume: 23
  start-page: 80
  year: 2018
  ident: pntd.0010228.ref066
  article-title: Approximate Bayesian algorithm to estimate the basic reproduction number in an influenza pandemic using arrival times of imported cases
  publication-title: Travel Med Infect Dis
  doi: 10.1016/j.tmaid.2018.04.004
– volume: 15
  issue: 24
  year: 2010
  ident: pntd.0010228.ref064
  article-title: Transmissibility of 2009 pandemic influenza A(H1N1) in New Zealand: effective reproduction number and influence of age, ethnicity and importations
  publication-title: EuroSurveillance
  doi: 10.2807/ese.15.24.19591-en
– year: 2020
  ident: pntd.0010228.ref071
  article-title: Complete genome characterisation of a novel coronavirus associated with severe human respiratory disease in Wuhan, China
  publication-title: bioRxiv
– volume: 4
  start-page: vey016
  issue: 1
  year: 2018
  ident: pntd.0010228.ref074
  article-title: Bayesian phylogenetic and phylodynamic data integration using BEAST 1.10
  publication-title: Virus Evol
  doi: 10.1093/ve/vey016
– volume: 397
  start-page: 462
  issue: 10273
  year: 2021
  ident: pntd.0010228.ref004
  article-title: Understanding variants of SARS-CoV-2
  publication-title: The Lancet
  doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(21)00298-1
– year: 2020
  ident: pntd.0010228.ref021
  article-title: On September 1, quarantine ends and selective isolation begins
  publication-title: El Tiempo
– volume: 5
  start-page: 338
  year: 2020
  ident: pntd.0010228.ref050
  article-title: Early transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in a southern hemisphere setting: Lima-Peru: February 29th–March 30th, 2020
  publication-title: Infect Dis Model.
– ident: pntd.0010228.ref042
– volume: 25
  start-page: 2000257
  issue: 17
  year: 2020
  ident: pntd.0010228.ref060
  article-title: Estimating the generation interval for coronavirus disease (COVID-19) based on symptom onset data, March 2020
  publication-title: Eurosurveillance
  doi: 10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.17.2000257
– ident: pntd.0010228.ref025
– volume: 396
  start-page: 227
  issue: 10246
  year: 2020
  ident: pntd.0010228.ref018
  article-title: COVID-19 cases surge in Colombia
  publication-title: The Lancet
  doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(20)31638-X
– volume: 39
  year: 2021
  ident: pntd.0010228.ref033
  article-title: The foreseen loss of the battle against COVID-19 in South America: A foretold tragedy
  publication-title: E Clin Med
SSID ssj0059581
Score 2.3979554
Snippet Colombia announced the first case of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 on March 6, 2020. Since then, the country has reported a total of...
SourceID plos
doaj
pubmedcentral
proquest
gale
pubmed
crossref
SourceType Open Website
Open Access Repository
Aggregation Database
Index Database
Enrichment Source
StartPage e0010228
SubjectTerms Analysis
Biology and life sciences
Colombia - epidemiology
Computer and Information Sciences
Coronaviruses
Countries
COVID-19
COVID-19 - epidemiology
COVID-19 vaccines
Disease control
Disease prevention
Disease transmission
Distribution
Dynamics
Epidemic models
Epidemics
Forecasting
Health
Health policy
Heterogeneity
Humans
Immunization
Mathematical models
Medical supplies
Medicine and Health Sciences
Mobility
Pandemics
People and places
Physical Sciences
Public health
Quarantine
Reproduction
Research and Analysis Methods
Respiratory diseases
SARS-CoV-2
Severe acute respiratory syndrome
Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2
Social distancing
Social media
Social Sciences
Spatial variations
Transmission
Trends
Tropical diseases
Viral diseases
SummonAdditionalLinks – databaseName: DOAJ Directory of Open Access Journals
  dbid: DOA
  link: http://utb.summon.serialssolutions.com/2.0.0/link/0/eLvHCXMwrV1Nb9QwELXQHiouCMpHUwoYCYkLaZPYjp3jUlFVSHCiUm-R7dhipcUbbXb5_cw43tCgSr1wWUU740gev4xnkplnQj5IrRgzAF4nGM-5ZibXshS5sQW4Ql02tovVFt_r6xv-9Vbc3jnqC2vCRnrg0XAXyjSWe-9YJSuutVTWC15KuGocr1XsI4c975BMjT5YNCIeTwrRCXZcVTI1zTFZXqQ1Ou_DrjsfKdXUbFOK3P2Th170681wX_j5bxXlnW3p6il5kuJJuhzn8Yw8cuGYHH1LX8yfk_0y0NVfLo1NoBtPByyj1us88VKtaR9ZNsNAdehov8XREY-oDBEitchzoH-vtvuBwl7ewIAQy-rh3vQS_Ocvs9KfQARZIvyUL8jN1Zcfl9d5Omoht3XFdznzTHT4DgjSybL2uoLH1hjtlC4LwFptnbIati5pmgaCBN2ownkDAlc5hcovySJsgjsh1Puyk77xDBJBrupO6c40jBddZ5hyrMwIO9i6tYmHHI_DWLfx45qEfGQ0XYsr1KYVykg-jepHHo4H9D_jMk66yKId_wBstQlb7UPYysg7BEE7tqROvqBd1hBW4wvUIiMfowZ6A5iE1ampAUyBvFozzbOZJjzFdiY-QaAd5jK0VS0wWGcFjjyA737x-0mMN8WiueA2e9RhEHxJyHgz8mrE6mQPiLu5qJTIiJyheGawuSSsfkb6cYUUk0V9-j8s_Jo8rrCfJBb1nZHFbrt3byDK25m38YH-A4gXTjU
  priority: 102
  providerName: Directory of Open Access Journals
– databaseName: Health & Medical Collection
  dbid: 7X7
  link: http://utb.summon.serialssolutions.com/2.0.0/link/0/eLvHCXMwhV1fi9QwEA-6gggiev656qkRBF_sXdukTfok6-FxCPrkwb6VJE29hTWt2927V7-D39BP4kya7Vk59KlLZxK2yS-TSTLzCyGvhZKMaQCvzRmPuWI6ViLNY20SMIUqLU3toy0-F6dn_OMiX4QNtz6EVe5sojfUdWtwj_woK3J0XliSvOu-x3hrFJ6uhis0bpJbSF2GqBaLccGVl7m_pBR8FMy7ykRInWMiPQo9ddi5TX04EKvJydTkGfxHOz3rVm1_nRP6dyzlH5PTyX1yL3iVdD7A4AG5Yd0euf0pnJvvkbvD7hwdko4eksu5o8srho3W0bahPQZXq1Uc2KpWtPPcm66nytW0W2NtHqWoDH4jNch-oC6W621PYYYvoYDzwfZQNz0Gq_pNL9VbEGXJrx8_4ZE-ImcnH74cn8bhCobYFBnfxKxheY17Q7DMTItGZTCctVZWqjQBDBbGSqNgShO6LMF5UKVMbKNBYDMrUfkxmbnW2X1CmyatRVM2DBaIXBa1VLUuGU_qWjNpWRoRtmv9ygR-crwmY1X5QzcB65ShMSvssyr0WUTisVQ38HP8R_89duyoi-za_kW7_lqFwVpJXRreNJYBaLhSQpom56mAX6XlhRQReYmwqIZU1dFGVPMC3G3cWE0i8sZroJWAjzAqJDtAUyDf1kTzYKIJo9tMxPsIvd239NXVOICSOzheL341irFSDKZztt2iDgOnTMBKOCJPBvSO7QH-OM8zmUdETHA9abCpxC3PPS25ROrJpHj677_1jNzJMIPEh_EdkNlmvbXPwa_b6Bd-8P4GuKZMDg
  priority: 102
  providerName: ProQuest
Title An investigation of spatial-temporal patterns and predictions of the coronavirus 2019 pandemic in Colombia, 2020–2021
URI https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35245285
https://www.proquest.com/docview/2651150300
https://www.proquest.com/docview/2636147114
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/PMC8926206
https://doaj.org/article/8b9c4ffe32724aa78cf5417aa79e4687
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0010228
Volume 16
hasFullText 1
inHoldings 1
isFullTextHit
isPrint
link http://utb.summon.serialssolutions.com/2.0.0/link/0/eLvHCXMwnV3da9swEBdtCqUvY9_11mUeDPYyB9uSLflhjDS0lEHLGAvkzUiy3AUy24uTfbztf9h_uL9kd_LH6pEx2EsScncCn3-STtLpd4Q851JQqgC8JqLMY5IqT_Ig8pT2YSiUQaIzm21xFV_M2ZtFtNgjXc3W1oH1zqUd1pOar1eTr5--vYYO_8pWbeBBZzSpik02aUjSxD45gLmJY02DS9afK0RJZMuWQtSCN7FC3l6m-1srR-QQAhQWhVhq-ca8Zen9-0F8VK3KeleE-mei5Y2Z6_w2udWGnO60wcgdsmeKu-Twsj1Uv0e-TAt3-ZtuoyzcMndrzLSWK6-lrlq5lSXiLGpXFplbrdHaQhaVIYh0NVIhyM_L9bZ2YbpPwKCwmffQtjuDIfajWsqXIAr9n99_wFdwn8zPz97PLry2HoOn45BtPJrTKMONIlhzBnEuQ-jbSkkjZOADIGNthJYwv3GVJBBJyET4JlcgMKERqPyAjIqyMMfEzfMg43mSU1gtMhFnQmYqoczPMkWFoYFDaOftVLdk5VgzY5XaEzgOi5bGeSm-rrR9XQ7xequqIev4h_4pvsheF6m27R_l-jpte24qVKJZnhsKeGFScqHzCJAFvxLDYsEd8hRhkDb3VvsBI53GEHvjLqvvkBdWA0EMD6Fle_MBXIHkWwPNk4EmdHU9EB8j1LpnqdMwjjCipz5advDbLX7Wi7FRzKwrTLlFHQoRGodlsUMeNmjt_dFh3yF8gOOBw4aSYvnBcpQL5KH040f_bfmYHIV408Sm-52Q0Wa9NU8g_tuoMdnnCw6fYhaMycHp2dXbd2O7lzK2nf0XMp9enw
linkProvider Scholars Portal
linkToHtml http://utb.summon.serialssolutions.com/2.0.0/link/0/eLvHCXMwtV3NbtQwELbKIgESQlB-GijUSCAupE1iJ3EOCC0L1Zb-nFqpt2A7Dqy0JGGzS8WNd-A9eCiehBnnpwRVcOopq8zY2ozH47E98w0hz2IpGFOgvCZk3OWSKVfGfugq7YEplH6iMxttcRRNT_j70_B0jfzscmEwrLKzidZQZ6XGM_KdIArReWGe97r64mLVKLxd7UpoNGqxb76dwZatfrX3Fsb3eRDsvjueTN22qoCro4AvXZazMMPjDtg5-VEuA9BQpaQR0vdArJE2Qkuw0rFKElgPZSI8kysgmMAIZIZ-r5CrnMHUxMz0SR9SEiahLYoKPhHmeQVxm6rHYn-n1Yztqlhm2w2QmxgshbZiQL8ujKp5WV_k9P4du_nHYrh7m9xqvVg6btTuDlkzxTq5dtje06-Tm81pIG2SnO6Ss3FBZ-eIHmVBy5zWGMwt526LjjWnlcX6LGoqi4xWC-zNzgpkBj-VakRbkF9ni1VNwaNIoEFhg_uhbzoBK_5ZzeRLIAXer-8_4OHfIyeXMjj3yagoC7NBaJ77WZwnOYMNKRdRJmSmEsa9LFNMGOY7hHXST3WLh45lOeapveSLYV_UCDPFMUvbMXOI27eqGjyQ__C_wYHteRHN274oFx_T1jikQiWa57lhoDRcyljoPOR-DL8SwyMRO2QL1SJtUmN7m5SOI3Dv8SDXc8gLy4FWCT5Cyza5AkSB-F4Dzs0BJ1gTPSBvoOp131Kn5_MOWnbqeDH5aU_GTjF4rzDlCnkYOIEx7Lwd8qDR3l4e4P_zMBChQ-KBXg8ENqQUs08WBl0g1KUXPfz339oi16fHhwfpwd7R_iNyI8DsFRtCuElGy8XKPAafcqme2IlMyYfLthy_AQ5niO8
linkToPdf http://utb.summon.serialssolutions.com/2.0.0/link/0/eLvHCXMwtV3NbtQwELbKIlVICEH5aaBQI4G4kG4SJ7FzQGjZUrUUKg5U6i21HQdWWpKw2aXixjvwNjwOT8KM81OCKjj1tKudibUZjz_P2PNDyBMuBWMKlNdELHRDyZQruR-5SnsAhdJPdGajLY7i_ePwzUl0skZ-drkwGFbZYaIF6qzUeEY-DuIIjRfmeeO8DYt4v7v3svriYgcpvGnt2mk0KnJovp2B-1a_ONiFuX4aBHuvP0z33bbDgKvjIFy6LGdRhkcf4EX5cS4D0FalpBHS90DEsTZCS0BsrpIE9kaZCM_kCggmMAKZYdwr5CpnXOAaE9M-vCRKItsgFewjzPkKeJu2x7g_brVkpyqW2U5T1E0MtkXbPaDfI0bVvKwvMoD_juP8Y2Pcu0lutBYtnTQqeIusmWKDrL9r7-w3yPXmZJA2CU-3ydmkoLPz6h5lQcuc1hjYLeduWylrTitb97OoqSwyWi1wNLtCkBlsVqqx8oL8OlusagrWRQIPFDbQH8amU0D0z2omnwMp8H59_wEf_h1yfCmTc5eMirIwm4TmuZ_xPMkZOKehiDMhM5Ww0MsyxYRhvkNYJ_1Ut7XRsUXHPLUXfhx8pEaYKc5Z2s6ZQ9z-qaqpDfIf_lc4sT0vVva2P5SLj2kLFKlQiQ7z3DBQmlBKLnQehT6Hb4kJY8Edso1qkTZpsj0-pZMYTH081PUc8sxyIELBS2jZJlqAKLDW14Bza8AJyKIH5E1Uve5d6vR8DcKTnTpeTH7ck3FQDOQrTLlCHgYGIQcv3CH3Gu3t5QG-QBgFInIIH-j1QGBDSjH7ZEuiCyx76cX3__23tsk6YEb69uDo8AG5FmAii40m3CKj5WJlHoJ5uVSP7Dqm5PSygeM3glKNJQ
openUrl ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&ctx_enc=info%3Aofi%2Fenc%3AUTF-8&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fsummon.serialssolutions.com&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=article&rft.atitle=An+investigation+of+spatial-temporal+patterns+and+predictions+of+the+coronavirus+2019+pandemic+in+Colombia%2C+2020%E2%80%932021&rft.jtitle=PLoS+neglected+tropical+diseases&rft.au=Tariq%2C+Amna&rft.au=Chakhaia%2C+Tsira&rft.au=Dahal%2C+Sushma&rft.au=Ewing%2C+Alexander&rft.date=2022-03-01&rft.pub=Public+Library+of+Science&rft.issn=1935-2727&rft.eissn=1935-2735&rft.volume=16&rft.issue=3&rft_id=info:doi/10.1371%2Fjournal.pntd.0010228&rft_id=info%3Apmid%2F35245285&rft.externalDocID=PMC8926206
thumbnail_l http://covers-cdn.summon.serialssolutions.com/index.aspx?isbn=/lc.gif&issn=1935-2735&client=summon
thumbnail_m http://covers-cdn.summon.serialssolutions.com/index.aspx?isbn=/mc.gif&issn=1935-2735&client=summon
thumbnail_s http://covers-cdn.summon.serialssolutions.com/index.aspx?isbn=/sc.gif&issn=1935-2735&client=summon