Abnormal returns to rivals of acquisition targets: A test of the `acquisition probability hypothesis
We develop and test the Acquisition Probability Hypothesis, which asserts that rivals of initial acquisition targets earn abnormal returns because of the increased probability that they will be targets themselves. On average, rival firms earn positive abnormal returns regardless of the form and outc...
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| Published in | Journal of financial economics Vol. 55; no. 2; pp. 143 - 171 |
|---|---|
| Main Authors | , |
| Format | Journal Article |
| Language | English |
| Published |
Amsterdam
Elsevier B.V
01.02.2000
Elsevier Elsevier Sequoia S.A |
| Series | Journal of Financial Economics |
| Subjects | |
| Online Access | Get full text |
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| Abstract | We develop and test the Acquisition Probability Hypothesis, which asserts that rivals of initial acquisition targets earn abnormal returns because of the increased probability that they will be targets themselves. On average, rival firms earn positive abnormal returns regardless of the form and outcome of acquisition. These returns increase significantly with the magnitude of surprise about the initial acquisition. Moreover, the cross-sectional variation of rival abnormal returns in the announcement period is systematically related to variables associated with the probability of acquisition. In addition, rivals that subsequently become targets earn significantly higher abnormal returns in the announcement period. |
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| AbstractList | We develop and test the Acquisition Probability Hypothesis, which asserts that rivals of initial acquisition targets earn abnormal returns because of the increased probability that they will be targets themselves. On average, rival firms earn positive abnormal returns regardless of the form and outcome of acquisition. These returns increase significantly with the magnitude of surprise about the initial acquisition. Moreover, the cross-sectional variation of rival abnormal returns in the announcement period is systematically related to variables associated with the probability of acquisition. In addition, rivals that subsequently become targets earn significantly higher abnormal returns in the announcement period. The Acquisition Probability Hypothesis is developed and tested. The hypothesis asserts that rivals of initial acquisition targets earn abnormal returns because of the increased probability that they will be targets themselves. On average, rival firms earn positive abnormal returns regardless of the form and outcome of acquisition. These returns increase significantly with the magnitude of surprise about the initial acquisition. Moreover, the cross-sectional variation of rival abnormal returns in the announcement period is systematically related to variables associated with the probability of acquisition. In addition, rivals that subsequently become targets earn significantly higher abnormal returns in the announcement period. |
| Author | Song, Moon H Walkling, Ralph A |
| Author_xml | – sequence: 1 givenname: Moon H surname: Song fullname: Song, Moon H email: moon.song@sdsu.edu organization: San Diego State University, Department of Finance, College of Business Administration, San Diego, CA 92182, USA – sequence: 2 givenname: Ralph A surname: Walkling fullname: Walkling, Ralph A email: walkling.1@osu.edu organization: Ohio State University, Faculty of Finance, Fisher College of Business, Columbus, OH 43210, USA |
| BackLink | http://econpapers.repec.org/article/eeejfinec/v_3a55_3ay_3a2000_3ai_3a2_3ap_3a143-171.htm$$DView record in RePEc |
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| References_xml | – volume: 39 start-page: 3 year: 1995 end-page: 43 ident: BIB13 article-title: Poison or Placebo? Evidence on the deterrence and wealth effects of modern antitakeover measures publication-title: Journal of Financial Economics contributor: fullname: Schwert – volume: 25 start-page: 263 year: 1989 end-page: 290 ident: BIB10 article-title: Managers’ voting rights and corporate control publication-title: Journal of Financial Economics contributor: fullname: Partch – volume: 31 start-page: 309 year: 1996 end-page: 335 ident: BIB12 article-title: The impact of industry classifications on financial research publication-title: Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis contributor: fullname: Walkling – volume: 11 start-page: 225 year: 1983 end-page: 240 ident: BIB5 article-title: Examining antitrust policy towards horizontal mergers publication-title: Journal of Financial Economics contributor: fullname: Stillman – volume: 83 start-page: 624 year: 1969 end-page: 642 ident: BIB7 article-title: An economic disturbance theory of mergers publication-title: Quarterly Journal of Economics 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article-title: Antimerger policy under the Hart–Scott–Rodino Act publication-title: Journal of Law and Economics contributor: fullname: Wier – volume: 47 start-page: 1005 year: 1992 end-page: 1029 ident: BIB4 article-title: Mergers and the value of antitrust deterrence publication-title: Journal of Finance contributor: fullname: Eckbo – volume: 20 start-page: 293 year: 1988 end-page: 316 ident: BIB17 article-title: Management ownership and market valuation publication-title: Journal of Financial Economics contributor: fullname: Vishny – volume: 8 start-page: 3 year: 1986 end-page: 35 ident: BIB16 article-title: Predicting takeover targets publication-title: Journal of Accounting and Economics contributor: fullname: Palepu – volume: 9 start-page: 351 year: 1985 end-page: 362 ident: BIB15 article-title: The characteristics of takeover targets, publication-title: Journal of Banking and Finance contributor: fullname: Hasbrouck – volume: 27 start-page: 595 year: 1990 end-page: 612 ident: 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and Economics doi: 10.1016/0165-4101(86)90008-X contributor: fullname: Palepu – ident: 10.1016/S0304-405X(99)00048-3_BIB9 doi: 10.1016/0304-405X(83)90010-7 – volume: 28 start-page: 119 year: 1985 ident: 10.1016/S0304-405X(99)00048-3_BIB6 article-title: Antimerger policy under the Hart–Scott–Rodino Act publication-title: Journal of Law and Economics doi: 10.1086/467077 contributor: fullname: Eckbo – ident: 10.1016/S0304-405X(99)00048-3_BIB8 – volume: 39 start-page: 3 year: 1995 ident: 10.1016/S0304-405X(99)00048-3_BIB13 article-title: Poison or Placebo? Evidence on the deterrence and wealth effects of modern antitakeover measures publication-title: Journal of Financial Economics doi: 10.1016/0304-405X(94)00823-J contributor: fullname: Comment – volume: 83 start-page: 624 year: 1969 ident: 10.1016/S0304-405X(99)00048-3_BIB7 article-title: An economic disturbance theory of mergers publication-title: Quarterly Journal of Economics doi: 10.2307/1885453 contributor: fullname: Gort – ident: 10.1016/S0304-405X(99)00048-3_BIB14 – volume: 11 start-page: 225 year: 1983 ident: 10.1016/S0304-405X(99)00048-3_BIB5 article-title: Examining antitrust policy towards horizontal mergers publication-title: Journal of Financial Economics doi: 10.1016/0304-405X(83)90012-0 contributor: fullname: Stillman |
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| Snippet | We develop and test the Acquisition Probability Hypothesis, which asserts that rivals of initial acquisition targets earn abnormal returns because of the... The Acquisition Probability Hypothesis is developed and tested. The hypothesis asserts that rivals of initial acquisition targets earn abnormal returns because... |
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| StartPage | 143 |
| SubjectTerms | Acquisition Acquisitions & mergers Collusion Economic concentration Financial economics Hypotheses Mergers Probability Rates of return Regression analysis Rivals Studies Take-overs Target company Tender offer Tender offers |
| Title | Abnormal returns to rivals of acquisition targets: A test of the `acquisition probability hypothesis |
| URI | https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0304-405X(99)00048-3 http://econpapers.repec.org/article/eeejfinec/v_3a55_3ay_3a2000_3ai_3a2_3ap_3a143-171.htm https://www.proquest.com/docview/231699340/abstract/ https://search.proquest.com/docview/38822123 |
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