Application of a Rule-Based Approach in Real-Time Crash Risk Prediction Model Development Using Loop Detector Data
Objectives: There is a growing trend in development and application of real-time crash risk prediction models within dynamic safety management systems. These real-time crash risk prediction models are constructed by associating crash data with the real-time traffic surveillance data (e.g., collected...
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Published in | Traffic injury prevention Vol. 16; no. 8; pp. 786 - 791 |
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Main Authors | , , , , , , |
Format | Journal Article |
Language | English |
Published |
England
Taylor & Francis
2015
Taylor & Francis Ltd |
Subjects | |
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Abstract | Objectives: There is a growing trend in development and application of real-time crash risk prediction models within dynamic safety management systems. These real-time crash risk prediction models are constructed by associating crash data with the real-time traffic surveillance data (e.g., collected by loop detectors). The main objective of this article is to develop a real-time risk model that will potentially be utilized within traffic management systems. This model aims to predict the likelihood of crash occurrence on motorways.
Methods: In this study, the potential prediction variables are confined to traffic-related characteristics. Given that the dependent variable (i.e., traffic safety condition) is dichotomous (i.e., "no-crash" or "crash"), a rule-based approach is considered for model development. The performance of rule-based classifiers is further compared with the more conventional techniques like binary logistic regression and decision trees. The crash and traffic data used in this study were collected between June 2009 and December 2011 on a part of the E313 motorway in Belgium between Geel-East and Antwerp-East exits, on the direction toward Antwerp.
Results: The results of analysis show that several traffic flow characteristics such as traffic volume, average speed, and standard deviation of speed at the upstream loop detector station and the difference in average speed on upstream and downstream loop detector stations significantly contribute to the crash occurrence prediction. The final chosen classifier is able to predict 70% of crash occasions accurately, and it correctly predicts 90% of no-crash instances, indicating a 10% false alarm rate.
Conclusions: The findings of this study can be used to predict the likelihood of crash occurrence on motorways within dynamic safety management systems. |
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AbstractList | Objectives: There is a growing trend in development and application of real-time crash risk prediction models within dynamic safety management systems. These real-time crash risk prediction models are constructed by associating crash data with the real-time traffic surveillance data (e.g., collected by loop detectors). The main objective of this article is to develop a real-time risk model that will potentially be utilized within traffic management systems. This model aims to predict the likelihood of crash occurrence on motorways. Methods: In this study, the potential prediction variables are confined to traffic-related characteristics. Given that the dependent variable (i.e., traffic safety condition) is dichotomous (i.e., "no-crash" or "crash"), a rule-based approach is considered for model development. The performance of rule-based classifiers is further compared with the more conventional techniques like binary logistic regression and decision trees. The crash and traffic data used in this study were collected between June 2009 and December 2011 on a part of the E313 motorway in Belgium between Geel-East and Antwerp-East exits, on the direction toward Antwerp. Results: The results of analysis show that several traffic flow characteristics such as traffic volume, average speed, and standard deviation of speed at the upstream loop detector station and the difference in average speed on upstream and downstream loop detector stations significantly contribute to the crash occurrence prediction. The final chosen classifier is able to predict 70% of crash occasions accurately, and it correctly predicts 90% of no-crash instances, indicating a 10% false alarm rate. Conclusions: The findings of this study can be used to predict the likelihood of crash occurrence on motorways within dynamic safety management systems. OBJECTIVESThere is a growing trend in development and application of real-time crash risk prediction models within dynamic safety management systems. These real-time crash risk prediction models are constructed by associating crash data with the real-time traffic surveillance data (e.g., collected by loop detectors). The main objective of this article is to develop a real-time risk model that will potentially be utilized within traffic management systems. This model aims to predict the likelihood of crash occurrence on motorways.METHODSIn this study, the potential prediction variables are confined to traffic-related characteristics. Given that the dependent variable (i.e., traffic safety condition) is dichotomous (i.e., "no-crash" or "crash"), a rule-based approach is considered for model development. The performance of rule-based classifiers is further compared with the more conventional techniques like binary logistic regression and decision trees. The crash and traffic data used in this study were collected between June 2009 and December 2011 on a part of the E313 motorway in Belgium between Geel-East and Antwerp-East exits, on the direction toward Antwerp.RESULTSThe results of analysis show that several traffic flow characteristics such as traffic volume, average speed, and standard deviation of speed at the upstream loop detector station and the difference in average speed on upstream and downstream loop detector stations significantly contribute to the crash occurrence prediction. The final chosen classifier is able to predict 70% of crash occasions accurately, and it correctly predicts 90% of no-crash instances, indicating a 10% false alarm rate.CONCLUSIONSThe findings of this study can be used to predict the likelihood of crash occurrence on motorways within dynamic safety management systems. There is a growing trend in development and application of real-time crash risk prediction models within dynamic safety management systems. These real-time crash risk prediction models are constructed by associating crash data with the real-time traffic surveillance data (e.g., collected by loop detectors). The main objective of this article is to develop a real-time risk model that will potentially be utilized within traffic management systems. This model aims to predict the likelihood of crash occurrence on motorways. In this study, the potential prediction variables are confined to traffic-related characteristics. Given that the dependent variable (i.e., traffic safety condition) is dichotomous (i.e., "no-crash" or "crash"), a rule-based approach is considered for model development. The performance of rule-based classifiers is further compared with the more conventional techniques like binary logistic regression and decision trees. The crash and traffic data used in this study were collected between June 2009 and December 2011 on a part of the E313 motorway in Belgium between Geel-East and Antwerp-East exits, on the direction toward Antwerp. The results of analysis show that several traffic flow characteristics such as traffic volume, average speed, and standard deviation of speed at the upstream loop detector station and the difference in average speed on upstream and downstream loop detector stations significantly contribute to the crash occurrence prediction. The final chosen classifier is able to predict 70% of crash occasions accurately, and it correctly predicts 90% of no-crash instances, indicating a 10% false alarm rate. The findings of this study can be used to predict the likelihood of crash occurrence on motorways within dynamic safety management systems. There is a growing trend in development and application of real-time crash risk prediction models within dynamic safety management systems. These real-time crash risk prediction models are constructed by associating crash data with the real-time traffic surveillance data (e.g., collected by loop detectors). The main objective of this article is to develop a real-time risk model that will potentially be utilized within traffic management systems. This model aims to predict the likelihood of crash occurrence on motorways. In this study, the potential prediction variables are confined to traffic-related characteristics. Given that the dependent variable (i.e., traffic safety condition) is dichotomous (i.e., "no-crash" or "crash"), a rule-based approach is considered for model development. The performance of rule-based classifiers is further compared with the more conventional techniques like binary logistic regression and decision trees. The crash and traffic data used in this study were collected between June 2009 and December 2011 on a part of the E313 motorway in Belgium between Geel-East and Antwerp-East exits, on the direction toward Antwerp. The results of analysis show that several traffic flow characteristics such as traffic volume, average speed, and standard deviation of speed at the upstream loop detector station and the difference in average speed on upstream and downstream loop detector stations significantly contribute to the crash occurrence prediction. The final chosen classifier is able to predict 70% of crash occasions accurately, and it correctly predicts 90% of no-crash instances, indicating a 10% false alarm rate. The findings of this study can be used to predict the likelihood of crash occurrence on motorways within dynamic safety management systems. Objectives: There is a growing trend in development and application of real-time crash risk prediction models within dynamic safety management systems. These real-time crash risk prediction models are constructed by associating crash data with the real-time traffic surveillance data (e.g., collected by loop detectors). The main objective of this article is to develop a real-time risk model that will potentially be utilized within traffic management systems. This model aims to predict the likelihood of crash occurrence on motorways. Methods: In this study, the potential prediction variables are confined to traffic-related characteristics. Given that the dependent variable (i.e., traffic safety condition) is dichotomous (i.e., "no-crash" or "crash"), a rule-based approach is considered for model development. The performance of rule-based classifiers is further compared with the more conventional techniques like binary logistic regression and decision trees. The crash and traffic data used in this study were collected between June 2009 and December 2011 on a part of the E313 motorway in Belgium between Geel-East and Antwerp-East exits, on the direction toward Antwerp. Results: The results of analysis show that several traffic flow characteristics such as traffic volume, average speed, and standard deviation of speed at the upstream loop detector station and the difference in average speed on upstream and downstream loop detector stations significantly contribute to the crash occurrence prediction. The final chosen classifier is able to predict 70% of crash occasions accurately, and it correctly predicts 90% of no-crash instances, indicating a 10% false alarm rate. Conclusions: The findings of this study can be used to predict the likelihood of crash occurrence on motorways within dynamic safety management systems. |
Author | Bellemans, Tom De Pauw, Ellen Daniels, Stijn Wets, Geert Pirdavani, Ali Brijs, Tom Magis, Maarten |
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SubjectTerms | Accidents, Traffic - statistics & numerical data Belgium Collisions Crashes Detectors dynamic safety management systems Dynamical systems Dynamics Humans Mathematical models Models, Statistical Predictions Real time real-time crash risk prediction Risk Assessment - methods rule-based classifiers Safety Management Standard deviation Traffic engineering Traffic flow traffic surveillance data Variables |
Title | Application of a Rule-Based Approach in Real-Time Crash Risk Prediction Model Development Using Loop Detector Data |
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