A macroscopic analysis of the demographic impacts of flood inundation in Thailand (2005–2019)
In Thailand, floods are occurring more frequently due to climate change, and recent economic development and population growth may have altered the way in which people interact with floods, including migration to other regions. In this study, we analyzed the relationship between flooding and populat...
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| Published in | Progress in Earth and Planetary Science Vol. 10; no. 1; pp. 36 - 13 |
|---|---|
| Main Authors | , |
| Format | Journal Article |
| Language | English |
| Published |
Berlin/Heidelberg
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
13.07.2023
Springer Berlin Heidelberg Springer Nature B.V SpringerOpen |
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| Online Access | Get full text |
| ISSN | 2197-4284 2197-4284 |
| DOI | 10.1186/s40645-023-00569-9 |
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| Abstract | In Thailand, floods are occurring more frequently due to climate change, and recent economic development and population growth may have altered the way in which people interact with floods, including migration to other regions. In this study, we analyzed the relationship between flooding and population distribution across Thailand from 2005 to 2019 to improve measures for minimizing flood damage. We used population distribution point data from 2009 to 2019 produced by Oak Ridge National Laboratory to analyze trends in population movement and distribution, by examining whether population sizes were greater than, less than, or equal to estimated values in regions throughout Thailand. The results suggest that floods in 2011 and 2017 caused temporary migration to areas that were not inundated or to the metropolitan Bangkok area. Flood responses changed after the 2011 floods, which have been described as the worst flood in Thai history. Next, we examined the relationship between the number of regions with lower than estimated population and flood data for the previous year including precipitation, inundated area, and deaths caused by flooding. Inundation area had a significant impact on population decline, with correlation coefficients of 0.426 and 0.501 for the north and northeast, respectively. The number of deaths caused by flooding in a given year also led to a population decline in the following year. However, precipitation did not exhibit the same trend. Therefore, population demographics after floods have shown regional characteristics in recent years, with Thai people shifting from a flood-tolerance lifestyle to a flood-avoidance lifestyle, mainly in local urban areas and the metropolitan Bangkok area. |
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| AbstractList | Abstract In Thailand, floods are occurring more frequently due to climate change, and recent economic development and population growth may have altered the way in which people interact with floods, including migration to other regions. In this study, we analyzed the relationship between flooding and population distribution across Thailand from 2005 to 2019 to improve measures for minimizing flood damage. We used population distribution point data from 2009 to 2019 produced by Oak Ridge National Laboratory to analyze trends in population movement and distribution, by examining whether population sizes were greater than, less than, or equal to estimated values in regions throughout Thailand. The results suggest that floods in 2011 and 2017 caused temporary migration to areas that were not inundated or to the metropolitan Bangkok area. Flood responses changed after the 2011 floods, which have been described as the worst flood in Thai history. Next, we examined the relationship between the number of regions with lower than estimated population and flood data for the previous year including precipitation, inundated area, and deaths caused by flooding. Inundation area had a significant impact on population decline, with correlation coefficients of 0.426 and 0.501 for the north and northeast, respectively. The number of deaths caused by flooding in a given year also led to a population decline in the following year. However, precipitation did not exhibit the same trend. Therefore, population demographics after floods have shown regional characteristics in recent years, with Thai people shifting from a flood-tolerance lifestyle to a flood-avoidance lifestyle, mainly in local urban areas and the metropolitan Bangkok area. In Thailand, floods are occurring more frequently due to climate change, and recent economic development and population growth may have altered the way in which people interact with floods, including migration to other regions. In this study, we analyzed the relationship between flooding and population distribution across Thailand from 2005 to 2019 to improve measures for minimizing flood damage. We used population distribution point data from 2009 to 2019 produced by Oak Ridge National Laboratory to analyze trends in population movement and distribution, by examining whether population sizes were greater than, less than, or equal to estimated values in regions throughout Thailand. The results suggest that floods in 2011 and 2017 caused temporary migration to areas that were not inundated or to the metropolitan Bangkok area. Flood responses changed after the 2011 floods, which have been described as the worst flood in Thai history. Next, we examined the relationship between the number of regions with lower than estimated population and flood data for the previous year including precipitation, inundated area, and deaths caused by flooding. Inundation area had a significant impact on population decline, with correlation coefficients of 0.426 and 0.501 for the north and northeast, respectively. The number of deaths caused by flooding in a given year also led to a population decline in the following year. However, precipitation did not exhibit the same trend. Therefore, population demographics after floods have shown regional characteristics in recent years, with Thai people shifting from a flood-tolerance lifestyle to a flood-avoidance lifestyle, mainly in local urban areas and the metropolitan Bangkok area. |
| ArticleNumber | 36 |
| Author | Hinako Tsuda Taichi Tebakari |
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| Cites_doi | 10.1371/journal.pmed.1001083 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.125368 10.1007/s00168-018-0878-1 10.1002/2017GL072874 10.2151/jmsj.2015-001 10.20965/jdr.2020.p0599 10.1007/978-3-030-49920-4 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.125643 10.48690/1524201 10.1088/1748-9326/abce80 10.4157/grj1984a.62.3_208 10.1098/rsif.2019.0532 10.1073/pnas.1115944109 10.1111/risa.12654 |
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| Copyright | The Author(s) 2023 The Author(s) 2023. This work is published under http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (the “License”). Notwithstanding the ProQuest Terms and Conditions, you may use this content in accordance with the terms of the License. |
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| References | KobayashiSOtaYHaradaYEbitaAMoriyaMOnodaHOnogiKKamahoriHKobayashiCEndoHMiyaokaKTakahashiKThe JRA-55 reanalysis: general specifications and basic characteristicsJ Meteorol Soc Japan201593154810.2151/jmsj.2015-001 Official statistics registration system (2005–2019) Population. https://stat.bora.dopa.go.th/stat/statnew/statMenu/newStat/home.php. Accessed 3 March 2022 MizutaniTProcesses of decrease, migration and recovery in urban population after disastersGeogr Rev Japan198962A–320822410.4157/grj1984a.62.3_208(in Japanese with an English abstract) ADRC (2005–2019) Member country disaster prevention information-Thailand. https://www.adrc.asia/disaster_j/. Accessed 9 Sept 2021 GISTDA (2005–2019) Thailand flood monitoring system. https://flood.gistda.or.th/. Accessed Jan 2022 Tamada Y (2013) Conflicts and politics over floods. In: Tamada Y, Hoshikawa K, Funatsu T (ed) Thailand 2011 floods: a record and lessons learned, situation analysis report, vol 22. Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization, pp 123–160 (in Japanese) KiguchiMTakataKHanasakiNArchevarahuprokBChampathongAIkomaEJaikaeoCKaewruengSKanaeSKazamaSKurajiKMatsumotoKNakamuraSNguyen-LeDNodaKPiamsa-NgaNRaksapatcharawongMRangsiwanichpongPRitphringSShirakawaHSomphongCSrisuthamMSuanburiDSuanpagaWTebakariTTrisuratYUdoKWongsaSYamadaTYoshidaKA review of climate-change impact and adaptation studies for the water sector in ThailandEnviron Res Lett202110.1088/1748-9326/abce80 TahiraYKawasakiAThe impact of the Thai flood of 2011 on the rural poor population living in the flood plainJ Soc Saf Sci201527167177(in Japanese) YamazakiDIkeshimaDTawatariRYamaguchiTO’LoughlinFNealJCSampsonCCKanaeSBatesPDA high-accuracy map of global terrain elevationsGeophys Res Lett201744115844585310.1002/2017GL072874 ThompsonRRGarfinDRSilverRCEvacuation from natural disasters: a systematic review of literatureRisk Anal201737481283910.1111/risa.12654 IwakiYYamamotoHIntegratedYEarthen mounds and stilt houses: traditional flood control measures in bangkok and their limitationsThai society as reflected by floods: the shape of society through disaster response2013LondonCenter for Integrated Area Studies, Kyoto University2328(in Japanese) Bhula-orRNakasuTMokkhamakkulTAnantsuksomsriSAmornkitvikaiYPrathumchaiKDuangkaewSHouseholds’ evacuation decisions in response to the 2011 flood in ThailandJ Disaster Res202015559960810.20965/jdr.2020.p0599 Phanthuwongpakdee N (2016) Living with floods: moving towards resilient local-level adaptation in Central Thailand. Dissertation, King’s College London and the National University of Singapore Tsuda H, Tebakari T, Matsuura T, Koyama N (2022b) Demographics impact of the 2011 floods in Thailand. Abstract presented at the Asia Oceania Geosciences Society 19th Annual Meeting 2022b, virtual, 01–05 August 2022 GrayCLMuellerVNatural disasters and population mobility in BangladeshProc Natl Acad Sci USA2012109166000600510.1073/pnas.1115944109 LocHHParkEChitwatkulsiriDLimJYunSManeechotLPhuongDMLocal rainfall or river overflow? Re-evaluating the cause of the Great 2011 Thailand floodJ Hydrol202010.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.125368 ParkELimJHoHLHerrinJChitwatkulsiriDSource-to-sink sediment fluxes and budget in the Chao Phraya River, Thailand: a multi-scale analysis based on the national datasetJ Hydrol202110.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.125643 Komori D, Kiguchi M, Nakamura S, Nunomura A (2013) The reality of Thailand’s 2011 floods. In: Tamada Y, Hoshikawa K, Funatsu T (ed) Thailand 2011 floods: a record and lessons learned. Situation analysis report, vol 22. Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization, pp 13–42 (in Japanese) KarácsonyiDTaylorAKarácsonyiDTaylorABirdDThe ontological praxis between disaster studies and demography extension of the scopeThe demography of disasters2021BerlinSpringer10.1007/978-3-030-49920-4 YabeTTsubouchiKFujiwaraNSekimotoYUkkusuriSVUnderstanding post-disaster population recovery patternsJ R Soc Interface2020172019053210.1098/rsif.2019.0532 Tsuda H, Tebakari T, Matsuura T, Koyama N (2022a) Demographic Impact of Flooding in Thailand: The Case of the 2011 Floods. Abstract presented at the 49th JSCE Kanto Branch Technical Conference, virtual, 03–08 March 2022 (in Japanese) KawasakiAKomoriDNakamuraSKiguchiMNishijimaAOkiKOkiTMeguroKEmergency response during the 2011 Chao Phraya River flood in Thailand focusing on information sharing and coordination among governmental agenciesJ Soc Saf Sci201217109117(in Japanese with an English abstract) BengtssonLLuXThorsonAGarfieldRvon SchreebJImproved response to disasters and outbreaks by tracking population movements with mobile phone network data: a post-earthquake Geospatial Study in HaitiPLoS Med201188e100108310.1371/journal.pmed.1001083 Bright E, Coleman P, King A (2006) LandScan Global 2005, Oak Ridge National Laboratory. https://doi.org/10.48690/1524201. Accessed 11 Jan 2022 InoueTInoueTWadaKDemographic characteristics of potential flood inundation areasNatural disasters and population2021TokyoHara Shobo187206(in Japanese) Climate Bonds Initiative (2022) Green infrastructure investment opportunities: Thailand 2021 Report WangCDid natural disasters affect population density growth in US counties?Ann Reg Sci201962214610.1007/s00168-018-0878-1 569_CR5 569_CR4 569_CR1 M Kiguchi (569_CR12) 2021 L Bengtsson (569_CR2) 2011; 8 HH Loc (569_CR15) 2020 RR Thompson (569_CR22) 2017; 37 CL Gray (569_CR7) 2012; 109 569_CR24 C Wang (569_CR25) 2019; 62 D Yamazaki (569_CR27) 2017; 44 569_CR23 D Karácsonyi (569_CR10) 2021 Y Iwaki (569_CR9) 2013 S Kobayashi (569_CR13) 2015; 93 Y Tahira (569_CR20) 2015; 27 T Mizutani (569_CR16) 1989; 62A–3 cr-split#-569_CR14.1 cr-split#-569_CR14.2 T Yabe (569_CR26) 2020; 17 569_CR17 E Park (569_CR18) 2021 569_CR19 A Kawasaki (569_CR11) 2012; 17 R Bhula-or (569_CR3) 2020; 15 cr-split#-569_CR21.1 cr-split#-569_CR21.2 T Inoue (569_CR8) 2021 569_CR6 |
| References_xml | – reference: Bhula-orRNakasuTMokkhamakkulTAnantsuksomsriSAmornkitvikaiYPrathumchaiKDuangkaewSHouseholds’ evacuation decisions in response to the 2011 flood in ThailandJ Disaster Res202015559960810.20965/jdr.2020.p0599 – reference: Tsuda H, Tebakari T, Matsuura T, Koyama N (2022a) Demographic Impact of Flooding in Thailand: The Case of the 2011 Floods. Abstract presented at the 49th JSCE Kanto Branch Technical Conference, virtual, 03–08 March 2022 (in Japanese) – reference: KobayashiSOtaYHaradaYEbitaAMoriyaMOnodaHOnogiKKamahoriHKobayashiCEndoHMiyaokaKTakahashiKThe JRA-55 reanalysis: general specifications and basic characteristicsJ Meteorol Soc Japan201593154810.2151/jmsj.2015-001 – reference: Phanthuwongpakdee N (2016) Living with floods: moving towards resilient local-level adaptation in Central Thailand. Dissertation, King’s College London and the National University of Singapore – reference: ThompsonRRGarfinDRSilverRCEvacuation from natural disasters: a systematic review of literatureRisk Anal201737481283910.1111/risa.12654 – reference: GISTDA (2005–2019) Thailand flood monitoring system. https://flood.gistda.or.th/. Accessed Jan 2022 – reference: GrayCLMuellerVNatural disasters and population mobility in BangladeshProc Natl Acad Sci USA2012109166000600510.1073/pnas.1115944109 – reference: WangCDid natural disasters affect population density growth in US counties?Ann Reg Sci201962214610.1007/s00168-018-0878-1 – reference: LocHHParkEChitwatkulsiriDLimJYunSManeechotLPhuongDMLocal rainfall or river overflow? Re-evaluating the cause of the Great 2011 Thailand floodJ Hydrol202010.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.125368 – reference: MizutaniTProcesses of decrease, migration and recovery in urban population after disastersGeogr Rev Japan198962A–320822410.4157/grj1984a.62.3_208(in Japanese with an English abstract) – reference: Official statistics registration system (2005–2019) Population. https://stat.bora.dopa.go.th/stat/statnew/statMenu/newStat/home.php. Accessed 3 March 2022 – reference: IwakiYYamamotoHIntegratedYEarthen mounds and stilt houses: traditional flood control measures in bangkok and their limitationsThai society as reflected by floods: the shape of society through disaster response2013LondonCenter for Integrated Area Studies, Kyoto University2328(in Japanese) – reference: YabeTTsubouchiKFujiwaraNSekimotoYUkkusuriSVUnderstanding post-disaster population recovery patternsJ R Soc Interface2020172019053210.1098/rsif.2019.0532 – reference: Bright E, Coleman P, King A (2006) LandScan Global 2005, Oak Ridge National Laboratory. https://doi.org/10.48690/1524201. Accessed 11 Jan 2022 – reference: YamazakiDIkeshimaDTawatariRYamaguchiTO’LoughlinFNealJCSampsonCCKanaeSBatesPDA high-accuracy map of global terrain elevationsGeophys Res Lett201744115844585310.1002/2017GL072874 – reference: Climate Bonds Initiative (2022) Green infrastructure investment opportunities: Thailand 2021 Report – reference: Tamada Y (2013) Conflicts and politics over floods. In: Tamada Y, Hoshikawa K, Funatsu T (ed) Thailand 2011 floods: a record and lessons learned, situation analysis report, vol 22. Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization, pp 123–160 (in Japanese) – reference: KawasakiAKomoriDNakamuraSKiguchiMNishijimaAOkiKOkiTMeguroKEmergency response during the 2011 Chao Phraya River flood in Thailand focusing on information sharing and coordination among governmental agenciesJ Soc Saf Sci201217109117(in Japanese with an English abstract) – reference: ParkELimJHoHLHerrinJChitwatkulsiriDSource-to-sink sediment fluxes and budget in the Chao Phraya River, Thailand: a multi-scale analysis based on the national datasetJ Hydrol202110.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.125643 – reference: KiguchiMTakataKHanasakiNArchevarahuprokBChampathongAIkomaEJaikaeoCKaewruengSKanaeSKazamaSKurajiKMatsumotoKNakamuraSNguyen-LeDNodaKPiamsa-NgaNRaksapatcharawongMRangsiwanichpongPRitphringSShirakawaHSomphongCSrisuthamMSuanburiDSuanpagaWTebakariTTrisuratYUdoKWongsaSYamadaTYoshidaKA review of climate-change impact and adaptation studies for the water sector in ThailandEnviron Res Lett202110.1088/1748-9326/abce80 – reference: KarácsonyiDTaylorAKarácsonyiDTaylorABirdDThe ontological praxis between disaster studies and demography extension of the scopeThe demography of disasters2021BerlinSpringer10.1007/978-3-030-49920-4 – reference: Komori D, Kiguchi M, Nakamura S, Nunomura A (2013) The reality of Thailand’s 2011 floods. In: Tamada Y, Hoshikawa K, Funatsu T (ed) Thailand 2011 floods: a record and lessons learned. Situation analysis report, vol 22. Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization, pp 13–42 (in Japanese) – reference: InoueTInoueTWadaKDemographic characteristics of potential flood inundation areasNatural disasters and population2021TokyoHara Shobo187206(in Japanese) – reference: Tsuda H, Tebakari T, Matsuura T, Koyama N (2022b) Demographics impact of the 2011 floods in Thailand. Abstract presented at the Asia Oceania Geosciences Society 19th Annual Meeting 2022b, virtual, 01–05 August 2022 – reference: ADRC (2005–2019) Member country disaster prevention information-Thailand. https://www.adrc.asia/disaster_j/. Accessed 9 Sept 2021 – reference: BengtssonLLuXThorsonAGarfieldRvon SchreebJImproved response to disasters and outbreaks by tracking population movements with mobile phone network data: a post-earthquake Geospatial Study in HaitiPLoS Med201188e100108310.1371/journal.pmed.1001083 – reference: TahiraYKawasakiAThe impact of the Thai flood of 2011 on the rural poor population living in the flood plainJ Soc Saf Sci201527167177(in Japanese) – ident: 569_CR23 – ident: 569_CR19 – ident: #cr-split#-569_CR14.2 – volume: 8 start-page: e1001083 issue: 8 year: 2011 ident: 569_CR2 publication-title: PLoS Med doi: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1001083 – start-page: 187 volume-title: Natural disasters and population year: 2021 ident: 569_CR8 – year: 2020 ident: 569_CR15 publication-title: J Hydrol doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.125368 – ident: 569_CR6 – ident: 569_CR17 – volume: 62 start-page: 21 year: 2019 ident: 569_CR25 publication-title: Ann Reg Sci doi: 10.1007/s00168-018-0878-1 – ident: #cr-split#-569_CR21.1 – ident: 569_CR24 – volume: 44 start-page: 5844 issue: 11 year: 2017 ident: 569_CR27 publication-title: Geophys Res Lett doi: 10.1002/2017GL072874 – volume: 93 start-page: 5 issue: 1 year: 2015 ident: 569_CR13 publication-title: J Meteorol Soc Japan doi: 10.2151/jmsj.2015-001 – volume: 15 start-page: 599 issue: 5 year: 2020 ident: 569_CR3 publication-title: J Disaster Res doi: 10.20965/jdr.2020.p0599 – volume-title: The demography of disasters year: 2021 ident: 569_CR10 doi: 10.1007/978-3-030-49920-4 – year: 2021 ident: 569_CR18 publication-title: J Hydrol doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.125643 – volume: 27 start-page: 167 year: 2015 ident: 569_CR20 publication-title: J Soc Saf Sci – ident: 569_CR4 doi: 10.48690/1524201 – year: 2021 ident: 569_CR12 publication-title: Environ Res Lett doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/abce80 – volume: 62A–3 start-page: 208 year: 1989 ident: 569_CR16 publication-title: Geogr Rev Japan doi: 10.4157/grj1984a.62.3_208 – volume: 17 start-page: 20190532 year: 2020 ident: 569_CR26 publication-title: J R Soc Interface doi: 10.1098/rsif.2019.0532 – ident: #cr-split#-569_CR14.1 – ident: 569_CR1 – volume: 17 start-page: 109 year: 2012 ident: 569_CR11 publication-title: J Soc Saf Sci – volume: 109 start-page: 6000 issue: 16 year: 2012 ident: 569_CR7 publication-title: Proc Natl Acad Sci USA doi: 10.1073/pnas.1115944109 – ident: 569_CR5 – ident: #cr-split#-569_CR21.2 – start-page: 23 volume-title: Thai society as reflected by floods: the shape of society through disaster response year: 2013 ident: 569_CR9 – volume: 37 start-page: 812 issue: 4 year: 2017 ident: 569_CR22 publication-title: Risk Anal doi: 10.1111/risa.12654 |
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| SubjectTerms | 6. Interdisciplinary research Atmospheric Sciences Biogeosciences Climate change Correlation coefficient Demographics Earth and Environmental Science Earth Sciences Economic development Flood Flood damage Flood data Flooding Floods G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation Geology Geophysics/Geodesy Hydrogeology Inundation Planetology Population decline Population distribution Population growth Precipitation QE1-996.5 Research Article Thailand Urban areas |
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| Title | A macroscopic analysis of the demographic impacts of flood inundation in Thailand (2005–2019) |
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