陇东地区几种旱作作物产量对降水与气温变化的响应
研究作物产量对气候变化的响应,对于指导区域农业生产,保障粮食安全和生态安全具有一定的理论指导意义。结合大田试验与农业生产系统模拟模型（Agricultural Production Systems Simulator,APSIM）,在验证模拟研究区冬小麦、玉米和紫花苜蓿产量可靠性的基础上,分析5个降水变化梯度（降水量不变、降低10%和20%、升高10%和20%）和5个气温变化梯度（不变、降低1.5和1℃、升高1.5和1℃）组合情景下3种作物的产量变化趋势。结果表明：APSIM模型在试验点对3种作物籽粒产量和生物量的模拟精度较高,决定系数R2在0.80～0.93之间,归一化均方根误差在11.35...
Saved in:
| Published in | 农业工程学报 Vol. 32; no. 9; pp. 106 - 114 |
|---|---|
| Main Author | |
| Format | Journal Article |
| Language | Chinese |
| Published |
兰州大学草地农业科技学院草地农业生态系统国家重点实验室,兰州,730020
2016
|
| Subjects | |
| Online Access | Get full text |
| ISSN | 1002-6819 |
| DOI | 10.11975/j.issn.1002-6819.2016.09.015 |
Cover
| Abstract | 研究作物产量对气候变化的响应,对于指导区域农业生产,保障粮食安全和生态安全具有一定的理论指导意义。结合大田试验与农业生产系统模拟模型（Agricultural Production Systems Simulator,APSIM）,在验证模拟研究区冬小麦、玉米和紫花苜蓿产量可靠性的基础上,分析5个降水变化梯度（降水量不变、降低10%和20%、升高10%和20%）和5个气温变化梯度（不变、降低1.5和1℃、升高1.5和1℃）组合情景下3种作物的产量变化趋势。结果表明：APSIM模型在试验点对3种作物籽粒产量和生物量的模拟精度较高,决定系数R2在0.80～0.93之间,归一化均方根误差在11.35%～22.48%之间,模型有效系数在0.53～0.91之间。冬小麦、玉米和紫花苜蓿在气温升高、降水量减少的情景下减产,减产的最大幅度分别为38.7%、40.3%和41.8%;冬小麦、紫花苜蓿的在气温降低、降水量增加时增产,增产的最大幅度分别为29.8%和51.7%;玉米在降水量增加、温度不变的情景下增产幅度最大,为22.0%。总之,在研究范围内,3种作物的产量随降水的增加而增高;玉米的产量随气温升高先增高后降低,另2种作物的产量随气温的升高而降低;紫花苜蓿适应气候变化的能力最强。结果对明确黄土高原地区主要作物的生产走势,制订农业布局、管理措施等具有一定意义。 |
|---|---|
| AbstractList | 研究作物产量对气候变化的响应,对于指导区域农业生产,保障粮食安全和生态安全具有一定的理论指导意义。结合大田试验与农业生产系统模拟模型（Agricultural Production Systems Simulator,APSIM）,在验证模拟研究区冬小麦、玉米和紫花苜蓿产量可靠性的基础上,分析5个降水变化梯度（降水量不变、降低10%和20%、升高10%和20%）和5个气温变化梯度（不变、降低1.5和1℃、升高1.5和1℃）组合情景下3种作物的产量变化趋势。结果表明：APSIM模型在试验点对3种作物籽粒产量和生物量的模拟精度较高,决定系数R2在0.80～0.93之间,归一化均方根误差在11.35%～22.48%之间,模型有效系数在0.53～0.91之间。冬小麦、玉米和紫花苜蓿在气温升高、降水量减少的情景下减产,减产的最大幅度分别为38.7%、40.3%和41.8%;冬小麦、紫花苜蓿的在气温降低、降水量增加时增产,增产的最大幅度分别为29.8%和51.7%;玉米在降水量增加、温度不变的情景下增产幅度最大,为22.0%。总之,在研究范围内,3种作物的产量随降水的增加而增高;玉米的产量随气温升高先增高后降低,另2种作物的产量随气温的升高而降低;紫花苜蓿适应气候变化的能力最强。结果对明确黄土高原地区主要作物的生产走势,制订农业布局、管理措施等具有一定意义。 P467%S501; 研究作物产量对气候变化的响应，对于指导区域农业生产，保障粮食安全和生态安全具有一定的理论指导意义。结合大田试验与农业生产系统模拟模型（Agricultural Production Systems Simulator，APSIM），在验证模拟研究区冬小麦、玉米和紫花苜蓿产量可靠性的基础上，分析5个降水变化梯度（降水量不变、降低10%和20%、升高10%和20%）和5个气温变化梯度（不变、降低1.5和1℃、升高1.5和1℃）组合情景下3种作物的产量变化趋势。结果表明：APSIM模型在试验点对3种作物籽粒产量和生物量的模拟精度较高，决定系数R2在0.80～0.93之间，归一化均方根误差在11.35%～22.48%之间，模型有效系数在0.53～0.91之间。冬小麦、玉米和紫花苜蓿在气温升高、降水量减少的情景下减产，减产的最大幅度分别为38.7%、40.3%和41.8%；冬小麦、紫花苜蓿的在气温降低、降水量增加时增产，增产的最大幅度分别为29.8%和51.7%；玉米在降水量增加、温度不变的情景下增产幅度最大，为22.0%。总之，在研究范围内，3种作物的产量随降水的增加而增高；玉米的产量随气温升高先增高后降低，另2种作物的产量随气温的升高而降低；紫花苜蓿适应气候变化的能力最强。结果对明确黄土高原地区主要作物的生产走势，制订农业布局、管理措施等具有一定意义。 |
| Abstract_FL | Investigating the response of crop production to climate change can help to optimize local agricultural practices, and then ensure food and ecological security. Crop models can provide a useful way to examine the effects of a range of climatic condition, management or crop cultivar on crop growth and yield in field and pasture. This work investigated the effects of precipitation and air temperature changes on the production of winter wheat, maize and lucerne in rain-fed agriculture area located in the central and western Loess Plateau by field experiment and crop simulation model. The field experiment was conducted at Qingyang Loess Plateau Experimental Station of Lanzhou University through 2001 to 2010, and the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) was applied in this study to simulate the growing process of winter wheat, maize and lucerne. The APSIM was validated with the experimental data firstly, and then the APSIM was applied to simulate the yield variability of the crops under the combinations 5 precipitation levels and 5 air temperature levels based on historical climatic data from 1961 to 2010. Temperature levels were: 1) -1.5°C decrease in daily mean temperature (T1); 2) -1°C decrease in daily mean temperature (T2); 3) historical daily temperature (T2); 4) 1°C increase in daily mean temperature (T4); and 5) 1.5°C increase in daily mean temperature (T5). Precipitation levels were: 1) 20% decrease in daily precipitation (P1); 2) 10% decrease in daily precipitation (P2); 3) historical daily precipitation (P3); 4) 10% increase in daily precipitation (P4); and 5) 20% increase in daily precipitation (P5). Results showed that the APSIM can predict the grain yield and biomass of the 3 crops accurately with the determination coefficients varied between 0.80-0.93, the normalized root mean square errors varied between 11.35%-22.48%, and the model efficiency varied between 0.53-0.91; Overall, APSIM was powerful to simulate the crop grain yield and biomass of winter wheat, maize and lucerne in study site. Winter wheat and lucerne maintained the greatest yield increase when the air temperature decreased and the precipitation increased during 1961-2010, which was 29.8% and 51.7%. Maize reached its greatest yield, which improved 22% when the precipitation increased and the air temperature remained unchanged. The maximal reduction of yield of 3 crops were 38.7%, 40.3% and 41.8%, respectively, which presented in the scenarios with low precipitation level and high temperature level. In addition, the variation range of winter wheat yield was reduced by increasing air temperature and precipitation while lucerne yield exhibited a smaller variation range when precipitation decreased and temperature increased. According to the trend of winter wheat and lucerne, the variation range of maize yield tended to boost by increasing precipitation, otherwise, maize yield also showed a wider range under the temperature level varied from T1 to T3; but when temperature level hoisted up the T5, variation range of maize yield tended to be narrower. Overer, lucerne could adapt to the climate change better than winter wheat and maize with relatively inferior changes of yield variation under different climatic scenarios. In conclusion, the 3 crops were more sensitive to precipitation and they had positive linear relationships with precipitation level by slopes of 14.3-16.0, 11.8-15.5 and 15.0-18.9, respectively. The results should offer better comprehension and consultation for future studies and actual production about long-term of chief crop production when climate changes.Future agricultural production should attach importance to change crop management such as sowing date and cultivar to avoid heat or moisture stress. Otherwise, more efforts should be paid to explore the effect of interaction by CO2, solar radiation, precipitation and air temperature on crop production on the western of Loess Plateau. |
| Author | 杨轩 王自奎 曹铨 张小明 沈禹颖 |
| AuthorAffiliation | 兰州大学草地农业科技学院草地农业生态系统国家重点实验室,兰州730020 |
| AuthorAffiliation_xml | – name: 兰州大学草地农业科技学院草地农业生态系统国家重点实验室,兰州,730020 |
| Author_FL | Yang Xuan Shen Yuying Wang Zikui Zhang Xiaoming Cao Quan |
| Author_FL_xml | – sequence: 1 fullname: Yang Xuan – sequence: 2 fullname: Wang Zikui – sequence: 3 fullname: Cao Quan – sequence: 4 fullname: Zhang Xiaoming – sequence: 5 fullname: Shen Yuying |
| Author_xml | – sequence: 1 fullname: 杨轩 王自奎 曹铨 张小明 沈禹颖 |
| BookMark | eNo9j01LAlEYhe_CIDP_RBCtZnrfuXNn7ixD7AOENu5lvq6N1LUcotwHEmguksqYRTtxlUELE_o3c0f8F00YwYEDh4dzOFukINsyJGQXQUd0bLbf0qM4ljoCGJrF0dENQEsHRwdkBVL8zzdJOY4jDxhSG8DEIqmuxr10nqhkpvoL1XtbTgbZ80f6neRa3k_TxWTVG6r3r9V4kM0-0_lDNhtl86kavqj-0_L1Tj0O1GK0TTaEex6H5T8vkfphtV451mqnRyeVg5rmM4dpnHMQNg8EhiELfFsAmtxnKMBnVshcFrjUActBE21X0CAQJiANDMpt6nkh0hLZW9feuFK4stlota87Mh9syG7Tv_V-X4OTf87JnTXpn7Vl8yrK2ctOdOF2ug3L4jYzTYPRH9PLdUU |
| ClassificationCodes | P467%S501 |
| ContentType | Journal Article |
| Copyright | Copyright © Wanfang Data Co. Ltd. All Rights Reserved. |
| Copyright_xml | – notice: Copyright © Wanfang Data Co. Ltd. All Rights Reserved. |
| DBID | 2RA 92L CQIGP W95 ~WA 2B. 4A8 92I 93N PSX TCJ |
| DOI | 10.11975/j.issn.1002-6819.2016.09.015 |
| DatabaseName | 维普期刊资源整合服务平台 中文科技期刊数据库-CALIS站点 维普中文期刊数据库 中文科技期刊数据库-农业科学 中文科技期刊数据库- 镜像站点 Wanfang Data Journals - Hong Kong WANFANG Data Centre Wanfang Data Journals 万方数据期刊 - 香港版 China Online Journals (COJ) China Online Journals (COJ) |
| DatabaseTitleList | |
| DeliveryMethod | fulltext_linktorsrc |
| Discipline | Agriculture |
| DocumentTitleAlternate | Effects of precipitation and air temperature changes on yield of several crops in Eastern Gansu of China |
| DocumentTitle_FL | Effects of precipitation and air temperature changes on yield of several crops in Eastern Gansu of China |
| EndPage | 114 |
| ExternalDocumentID | nygcxb201609015 668754425 |
| GrantInformation_xml | – fundername: 甘肃省重大科技专项; 教育部长江学者和创新团队发展计划; 甘肃省科技支撑项目 funderid: (1203FKDA035); (IRT13019); (150NKCA081) |
| GroupedDBID | -04 2B. 2B~ 2RA 5XA 5XE 92G 92I 92L ABDBF ABJNI ACGFO ACGFS AEGXH AIAGR ALMA_UNASSIGNED_HOLDINGS CCEZO CHDYS CQIGP CW9 EOJEC FIJ IPNFZ OBODZ RIG TCJ TGD TUS U1G U5N W95 ~WA 4A8 93N ACUHS PSX |
| ID | FETCH-LOGICAL-c595-8880f78df1ee5dc7f0148c51f0c56e5a5da390691417af3ddf4013d23873bbe13 |
| ISSN | 1002-6819 |
| IngestDate | Thu May 29 04:04:19 EDT 2025 Wed Feb 14 10:18:32 EST 2024 |
| IsPeerReviewed | false |
| IsScholarly | true |
| Issue | 9 |
| Keywords | 温度 APSIM precipitation 产量 Eastern Gansu 降水 yield temperature 气候变化 陇东地区 climate change |
| Language | Chinese |
| LinkModel | OpenURL |
| MergedId | FETCHMERGED-LOGICAL-c595-8880f78df1ee5dc7f0148c51f0c56e5a5da390691417af3ddf4013d23873bbe13 |
| Notes | Yang Xuan,Wang Zikui,Cao Quan,Zhang Xiaoming,Shen Yuying（College of Pastoral Agriculture Science and Technology, Key Laboratory of Grassland Agro-ecosystem, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730020, China） 11-2047/S Investigating the response of crop production to climate change can help to optimize local agricultural practices, and then ensure food and ecological security. Crop models can provide a useful way to examine the effects of a range of climatic condition, management or crop cultivar on crop growth and yield in field and pasture. This work investigated the effects of precipitation and air temperature changes on the production of winter wheat, maize and lucerne in rain-fed agriculture area located in the central and western Loess Plateau by field experiment and crop simulation model. The field experiment was conducted at Qingyang Loess Plateau Experimental Station of Lanzhou University through 2001 to 2010, and the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator（APSIM） was applied in this study to simulate the gro |
| PageCount | 9 |
| ParticipantIDs | wanfang_journals_nygcxb201609015 chongqing_primary_668754425 |
| PublicationCentury | 2000 |
| PublicationDate | 2016 |
| PublicationDateYYYYMMDD | 2016-01-01 |
| PublicationDate_xml | – year: 2016 text: 2016 |
| PublicationDecade | 2010 |
| PublicationTitle | 农业工程学报 |
| PublicationTitleAlternate | Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering |
| PublicationYear | 2016 |
| Publisher | 兰州大学草地农业科技学院草地农业生态系统国家重点实验室,兰州,730020 |
| Publisher_xml | – name: 兰州大学草地农业科技学院草地农业生态系统国家重点实验室,兰州,730020 |
| SSID | ssib051370041 ssib017478172 ssj0041925 ssib001101065 ssib023167668 |
| Score | 2.1127722 |
| Snippet | 研究作物产量对气候变化的响应,对于指导区域农业生产,保障粮食安全和生态安全具有一定的理论指导意义。结合大田试验与农业生产系统模拟模型（Agricultural Production Systems... P467%S501; 研究作物产量对气候变化的响应，对于指导区域农业生产，保障粮食安全和生态安全具有一定的理论指导意义。结合大田试验与农业生产系统模拟模型（Agricultural Production Systems... |
| SourceID | wanfang chongqing |
| SourceType | Aggregation Database Publisher |
| StartPage | 106 |
| SubjectTerms | APSIM 产量 气候变化 温度 陇东地区 降水 |
| Title | 陇东地区几种旱作作物产量对降水与气温变化的响应 |
| URI | http://lib.cqvip.com/qk/90712X/201609/668754425.html https://d.wanfangdata.com.cn/periodical/nygcxb201609015 |
| Volume | 32 |
| hasFullText | 1 |
| inHoldings | 1 |
| isFullTextHit | |
| isPrint | |
| link | http://utb.summon.serialssolutions.com/2.0.0/link/0/eLvHCXMwnR1NaxNBdKgpiB7ET6xV6cE5pu5HZnfmuJtsKIKeKvQW9mvSU9TagvYsFKG1B4ta6cFb6ckKHmrBf5NN6b_wvbezSVqLViEMj5l535O8mcnMG8YeaOUlKYSOuuUncb2RYcpb19bwxdO59pUnM0qk_fiJN_e08WhBLEzU-NippZXlZDZdPfNeyf94FerAr3hL9h88OyQKFQCDf6EED0N5Lh_zSHGlOKznowYPJVdNHgksQwsBCUBAgM8DqIHS57LFI48rn4c2YbUIawhAB8UDRTUB9o-IvmwjnaDNQ1UxJTrAKGwY7jIyNapBgCQ6AnGVNPIoD1mogMsGieoSHYG8yleIq4ky9fcq2SSiYDdQQZAiwC4kkVo88JCdBGlFNXxIxRb2iiRqFqhRi4-CIrIkuxBdICqjE8hhpakLVEYtIEKTbClQUbSKh8oZZLN7Ul7rpJFOagjjD5BeRcSuQZYdSi_RClKddN4p5cl5yjaqSmsMnfwROOelA-5RJDgQkTbWhC4PQwJCahKkPzkmiHjoVYOgRdZzyDTUhOootKFsmhpQzWmeobXTxCcLHGssCGKU9KQJZSZKjnahV6p7AGXIsy1vbPZkl1eCfw_MyhcUmZHD7JADnq30KNFwean3VO7z3utu-irBPhbOWy-wScf3bVFjk0HYCtujeb-NWxvDwORgegdvtI4WtouvOAzPfuHJB0HHIIwYFxmvhHz4JxExAcvis173BUwr6ZZfT8e97tiEdP4qu2JWkjNB-bNwjU2sLl5nl4Puksmmk99g0fH2Wv9gp9jZL9YPi7UvR7sbg4_f-j934HP0dq9_uHu8tll8_XG8vTHY_94_eDfY3xoc7BWbn4r1D0ef3xTvN4rDrZtsvh3NN-fq5t2UeiqUqEsIydqXmbbzXGSpr_FPg1TY2kqFl4tYZLGrLE_ZDduPtZtlGvdYMpi7-26S5LZ7i9V6z3r5bTaTxo6jdSJcrTGNlSV1LhMnzu04lVmWxVNsemiPzvMyPU4HDI9ZNR0xxWaMhTrmR_Nl55RH7_y9yzS7hHC57XmX1ZaXVvJ7sBBYTu6bYfALqcnHUg |
| linkProvider | EBSCOhost |
| openUrl | ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&ctx_enc=info%3Aofi%2Fenc%3AUTF-8&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fsummon.serialssolutions.com&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=article&rft.atitle=%E9%99%87%E4%B8%9C%E5%9C%B0%E5%8C%BA%E5%87%A0%E7%A7%8D%E6%97%B1%E4%BD%9C%E4%BD%9C%E7%89%A9%E4%BA%A7%E9%87%8F%E5%AF%B9%E9%99%8D%E6%B0%B4%E4%B8%8E%E6%B0%94%E6%B8%A9%E5%8F%98%E5%8C%96%E7%9A%84%E5%93%8D%E5%BA%94&rft.jtitle=%E5%86%9C%E4%B8%9A%E5%B7%A5%E7%A8%8B%E5%AD%A6%E6%8A%A5&rft.au=%E6%9D%A8%E8%BD%A9&rft.au=%E7%8E%8B%E8%87%AA%E5%A5%8E&rft.au=%E6%9B%B9%E9%93%A8&rft.au=%E5%BC%A0%E5%B0%8F%E6%98%8E&rft.date=2016&rft.pub=%E5%85%B0%E5%B7%9E%E5%A4%A7%E5%AD%A6%E8%8D%89%E5%9C%B0%E5%86%9C%E4%B8%9A%E7%A7%91%E6%8A%80%E5%AD%A6%E9%99%A2%E8%8D%89%E5%9C%B0%E5%86%9C%E4%B8%9A%E7%94%9F%E6%80%81%E7%B3%BB%E7%BB%9F%E5%9B%BD%E5%AE%B6%E9%87%8D%E7%82%B9%E5%AE%9E%E9%AA%8C%E5%AE%A4%2C%E5%85%B0%E5%B7%9E%2C730020&rft.issn=1002-6819&rft.volume=32&rft.issue=9&rft.spage=106&rft.epage=114&rft_id=info:doi/10.11975%2Fj.issn.1002-6819.2016.09.015&rft.externalDocID=nygcxb201609015 |
| thumbnail_s | http://utb.summon.serialssolutions.com/2.0.0/image/custom?url=http%3A%2F%2Fimage.cqvip.com%2Fvip1000%2Fqk%2F90712X%2F90712X.jpg http://utb.summon.serialssolutions.com/2.0.0/image/custom?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.wanfangdata.com.cn%2Fimages%2FPeriodicalImages%2Fnygcxb%2Fnygcxb.jpg |