Impacts of climate change on rice production in Africa and causes of simulated yield changes

This study is the first of its kind to quantify possible effects of climate change on rice production in Africa. We simulated impacts on rice in irrigated systems (dry season and wet season) and rainfed systems (upland and lowland). We simulated the use of rice varieties with a higher temperature su...

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Bibliographic Details
Published inGlobal change biology Vol. 24; no. 3; pp. 1029 - 1045
Main Authors van Oort, Pepijn A. J., Zwart, Sander J.
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published England Blackwell Publishing Ltd 01.03.2018
John Wiley and Sons Inc
Subjects
Acclimatization
Adaptation
Africa
Biological fertilization
Carbon dioxide
Climate Change
Climate effects
cold induced sterility
Crop and Weed Ecology
Crop production
Crop yield
Dry season
Eastern Africa
Environmental impact
Fertilization
Food Supply
grain yield
heat
heat induced sterility
heat sums
High temperature
highlands
irrigated
irrigation
Irrigation systems
Mineral nutrients
nutrient management
Oryza
Oryza - growth & development
Photosynthesis
Primary
Primary s
rainfed
Rainfed farming
Rainy season
Rice
Seasons
Simulation
sowing date
Sterility
Temperature
Water
Water availability
Western Africa
Wet season
West Africa
East Africa
Africa
Western Africa
Eastern Africa
photosynthesis
heat induced sterility
rainfed
Africa
cold induced sterility
rice
irrigated
climate change
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Abstract This study is the first of its kind to quantify possible effects of climate change on rice production in Africa. We simulated impacts on rice in irrigated systems (dry season and wet season) and rainfed systems (upland and lowland). We simulated the use of rice varieties with a higher temperature sum as adaptation option. We simulated rice yields for 4 RCP climate change scenarios and identified causes of yield declines. Without adaptation, shortening of the growing period due to higher temperatures had a negative impact on yields (−24% in RCP 8.5 in 2070 compared with the baseline year 2000). With varieties that have a high temperature sum, the length of the growing period would remain the same as under the baseline conditions. With this adaptation option rainfed rice yields would increase slightly (+8%) but they remain subject to water availability constraints. Irrigated rice yields in East Africa would increase (+25%) due to more favourable temperatures and due to CO2 fertilization. Wet season irrigated rice yields in West Africa were projected to change by −21% or +7% (without/with adaptation). Without adaptation irrigated rice yields in West Africa in the dry season would decrease by −45% with adaptation they would decrease significantly less (−15%). The main cause of this decline was reduced photosynthesis at extremely high temperatures. Simulated heat sterility hardly increased and was not found a major cause for yield decline. The implications for these findings are as follows. For East Africa to benefit from climate change, improved water and nutrient management will be needed to benefit fully from the more favourable temperatures and increased CO2 concentrations. For West Africa, more research is needed on photosynthesis processes at extreme temperatures and on adaptation options such as shifting sowing dates. In the Sahel zone in West Africa, temperature rise will lead to large rice yield declines. However, more investigation to understand the response of rice plants to extreme temperatures and adaptation options is needed. In East Africa temperature rise leads to new opportunities for rice the colder highlands
AbstractList This study is the first of its kind to quantify possible effects of climate change on rice production in Africa. We simulated impacts on rice in irrigated systems (dry season and wet season) and rainfed systems (upland and lowland). We simulated the use of rice varieties with a higher temperature sum as adaptation option. We simulated rice yields for 4 RCP climate change scenarios and identified causes of yield declines. Without adaptation, shortening of the growing period due to higher temperatures had a negative impact on yields (−24% in RCP 8.5 in 2070 compared with the baseline year 2000). With varieties that have a high temperature sum, the length of the growing period would remain the same as under the baseline conditions. With this adaptation option rainfed rice yields would increase slightly (+8%) but they remain subject to water availability constraints. Irrigated rice yields in East Africa would increase (+25%) due to more favourable temperatures and due to CO2 fertilization. Wet season irrigated rice yields in West Africa were projected to change by −21% or +7% (without/with adaptation). Without adaptation irrigated rice yields in West Africa in the dry season would decrease by −45% with adaptation they would decrease significantly less (−15%). The main cause of this decline was reduced photosynthesis at extremely high temperatures. Simulated heat sterility hardly increased and was not found a major cause for yield decline. The implications for these findings are as follows. For East Africa to benefit from climate change, improved water and nutrient management will be needed to benefit fully from the more favourable temperatures and increased CO2 concentrations. For West Africa, more research is needed on photosynthesis processes at extreme temperatures and on adaptation options such as shifting sowing dates.
This study is the first of its kind to quantify possible effects of climate change on rice production in Africa. We simulated impacts on rice in irrigated systems (dry season and wet season) and rainfed systems (upland and lowland). We simulated the use of rice varieties with a higher temperature sum as adaptation option. We simulated rice yields for 4 RCP climate change scenarios and identified causes of yield declines. Without adaptation, shortening of the growing period due to higher temperatures had a negative impact on yields (−24% in RCP 8.5 in 2070 compared with the baseline year 2000). With varieties that have a high temperature sum, the length of the growing period would remain the same as under the baseline conditions. With this adaptation option rainfed rice yields would increase slightly (+8%) but they remain subject to water availability constraints. Irrigated rice yields in East Africa would increase (+25%) due to more favourable temperatures and due to CO2 fertilization. Wet season irrigated rice yields in West Africa were projected to change by −21% or +7% (without/with adaptation). Without adaptation irrigated rice yields in West Africa in the dry season would decrease by −45% with adaptation they would decrease significantly less (−15%). The main cause of this decline was reduced photosynthesis at extremely high temperatures. Simulated heat sterility hardly increased and was not found a major cause for yield decline. The implications for these findings are as follows. For East Africa to benefit from climate change, improved water and nutrient management will be needed to benefit fully from the more favourable temperatures and increased CO2 concentrations. For West Africa, more research is needed on photosynthesis processes at extreme temperatures and on adaptation options such as shifting sowing dates. In the Sahel zone in West Africa, temperature rise will lead to large rice yield declines. However, more investigation to understand the response of rice plants to extreme temperatures and adaptation options is needed. In East Africa temperature rise leads to new opportunities for rice the colder highlands
This study is the first of its kind to quantify possible effects of climate change on rice production in Africa. We simulated impacts on rice in irrigated systems (dry season and wet season) and rainfed systems (upland and lowland). We simulated the use of rice varieties with a higher temperature sum as adaptation option. We simulated rice yields for 4 RCP climate change scenarios and identified causes of yield declines. Without adaptation, shortening of the growing period due to higher temperatures had a negative impact on yields (−24% in RCP 8.5 in 2070 compared with the baseline year 2000). With varieties that have a high temperature sum, the length of the growing period would remain the same as under the baseline conditions. With this adaptation option rainfed rice yields would increase slightly (+8%) but they remain subject to water availability constraints. Irrigated rice yields in East Africa would increase (+25%) due to more favourable temperatures and due to CO 2 fertilization. Wet season irrigated rice yields in West Africa were projected to change by −21% or +7% (without/with adaptation). Without adaptation irrigated rice yields in West Africa in the dry season would decrease by −45% with adaptation they would decrease significantly less (−15%). The main cause of this decline was reduced photosynthesis at extremely high temperatures. Simulated heat sterility hardly increased and was not found a major cause for yield decline. The implications for these findings are as follows. For East Africa to benefit from climate change, improved water and nutrient management will be needed to benefit fully from the more favourable temperatures and increased CO 2 concentrations. For West Africa, more research is needed on photosynthesis processes at extreme temperatures and on adaptation options such as shifting sowing dates.
This study is the first of its kind to quantify possible effects of climate change on rice production in Africa. We simulated impacts on rice in irrigated systems (dry season and wet season) and rainfed systems (upland and lowland). We simulated the use of rice varieties with a higher temperature sum as adaptation option. We simulated rice yields for 4 RCP climate change scenarios and identified causes of yield declines. Without adaptation, shortening of the growing period due to higher temperatures had a negative impact on yields (-24% in RCP 8.5 in 2070 compared with the baseline year 2000). With varieties that have a high temperature sum, the length of the growing period would remain the same as under the baseline conditions. With this adaptation option rainfed rice yields would increase slightly (+8%) but they remain subject to water availability constraints. Irrigated rice yields in East Africa would increase (+25%) due to more favourable temperatures and due to CO2 fertilization. Wet season irrigated rice yields in West Africa were projected to change by -21% or +7% (without/with adaptation). Without adaptation irrigated rice yields in West Africa in the dry season would decrease by -45% with adaptation they would decrease significantly less (-15%). The main cause of this decline was reduced photosynthesis at extremely high temperatures. Simulated heat sterility hardly increased and was not found a major cause for yield decline. The implications for these findings are as follows. For East Africa to benefit from climate change, improved water and nutrient management will be needed to benefit fully from the more favourable temperatures and increased CO2 concentrations. For West Africa, more research is needed on photosynthesis processes at extreme temperatures and on adaptation options such as shifting sowing dates.
This study is the first of its kind to quantify possible effects of climate change on rice production in Africa. We simulated impacts on rice in irrigated systems (dry season and wet season) and rainfed systems (upland and lowland). We simulated the use of rice varieties with a higher temperature sum as adaptation option. We simulated rice yields for 4 RCP climate change scenarios and identified causes of yield declines. Without adaptation, shortening of the growing period due to higher temperatures had a negative impact on yields (-24% in RCP 8.5 in 2070 compared with the baseline year 2000). With varieties that have a high temperature sum, the length of the growing period would remain the same as under the baseline conditions. With this adaptation option rainfed rice yields would increase slightly (+8%) but they remain subject to water availability constraints. Irrigated rice yields in East Africa would increase (+25%) due to more favourable temperatures and due to CO2 fertilization. Wet season irrigated rice yields in West Africa were projected to change by -21% or +7% (without/with adaptation). Without adaptation irrigated rice yields in West Africa in the dry season would decrease by -45% with adaptation they would decrease significantly less (-15%). The main cause of this decline was reduced photosynthesis at extremely high temperatures. Simulated heat sterility hardly increased and was not found a major cause for yield decline. The implications for these findings are as follows. For East Africa to benefit from climate change, improved water and nutrient management will be needed to benefit fully from the more favourable temperatures and increased CO2 concentrations. For West Africa, more research is needed on photosynthesis processes at extreme temperatures and on adaptation options such as shifting sowing dates.This study is the first of its kind to quantify possible effects of climate change on rice production in Africa. We simulated impacts on rice in irrigated systems (dry season and wet season) and rainfed systems (upland and lowland). We simulated the use of rice varieties with a higher temperature sum as adaptation option. We simulated rice yields for 4 RCP climate change scenarios and identified causes of yield declines. Without adaptation, shortening of the growing period due to higher temperatures had a negative impact on yields (-24% in RCP 8.5 in 2070 compared with the baseline year 2000). With varieties that have a high temperature sum, the length of the growing period would remain the same as under the baseline conditions. With this adaptation option rainfed rice yields would increase slightly (+8%) but they remain subject to water availability constraints. Irrigated rice yields in East Africa would increase (+25%) due to more favourable temperatures and due to CO2 fertilization. Wet season irrigated rice yields in West Africa were projected to change by -21% or +7% (without/with adaptation). Without adaptation irrigated rice yields in West Africa in the dry season would decrease by -45% with adaptation they would decrease significantly less (-15%). The main cause of this decline was reduced photosynthesis at extremely high temperatures. Simulated heat sterility hardly increased and was not found a major cause for yield decline. The implications for these findings are as follows. For East Africa to benefit from climate change, improved water and nutrient management will be needed to benefit fully from the more favourable temperatures and increased CO2 concentrations. For West Africa, more research is needed on photosynthesis processes at extreme temperatures and on adaptation options such as shifting sowing dates.
Author Zwart, Sander J.
van Oort, Pepijn A. J.
AuthorAffiliation 1 Africa Rice Center Bouaké Côte d'Ivoire
2 Centre for Crop Systems Analysis Wageningen Universiteit Wageningen The Netherlands
3 Faculteit Geo‐Informatie Wetenschappen en Aardobservatie Universiteit Twente Enschede The Netherlands
AuthorAffiliation_xml – name: 2 Centre for Crop Systems Analysis Wageningen Universiteit Wageningen The Netherlands
– name: 3 Faculteit Geo‐Informatie Wetenschappen en Aardobservatie Universiteit Twente Enschede The Netherlands
– name: 1 Africa Rice Center Bouaké Côte d'Ivoire
Author_xml – sequence: 1
  givenname: Pepijn A. J.
  orcidid: 0000-0001-7617-5382
  surname: van Oort
  fullname: van Oort, Pepijn A. J.
  email: p.vanoort@cgiar.org, pepijn.vanoort@wur.nl
  organization: Wageningen Universiteit
– sequence: 2
  givenname: Sander J.
  orcidid: 0000-0002-5091-1801
  surname: Zwart
  fullname: Zwart, Sander J.
  organization: Universiteit Twente
BackLink https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29230904$$D View this record in MEDLINE/PubMed
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Issue 3
Keywords photosynthesis
heat induced sterility
rainfed
Africa
cold induced sterility
rice
irrigated
climate change
Language English
License Attribution
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0
2017 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
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Snippet This study is the first of its kind to quantify possible effects of climate change on rice production in Africa. We simulated impacts on rice in irrigated...
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SubjectTerms Acclimatization
Adaptation
Africa
Biological fertilization
Carbon dioxide
Climate Change
Climate effects
cold induced sterility
Crop and Weed Ecology
Crop production
Crop yield
Dry season
Eastern Africa
Environmental impact
Fertilization
Food Supply
grain yield
heat
heat induced sterility
heat sums
High temperature
highlands
irrigated
irrigation
Irrigation systems
Mineral nutrients
nutrient management
Oryza
Oryza - growth & development
Photosynthesis
Primary
Primary s
rainfed
Rainfed farming
Rainy season
Rice
Seasons
Simulation
sowing date
Sterility
Temperature
Water
Water availability
Western Africa
Wet season
Title Impacts of climate change on rice production in Africa and causes of simulated yield changes
URI https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111%2Fgcb.13967
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29230904
https://www.proquest.com/docview/2002422975
https://www.proquest.com/docview/1975998505
https://www.proquest.com/docview/2053903160
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/PMC5836867
http://www.narcis.nl/publication/RecordID/oai:library.wur.nl:wurpubs%2F533307
Volume 24
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