滨海城市雨潮遭遇联合分布模拟与设计
滨海城市河流常常遭受暴雨和潮汐顶托双重影响导致洪涝灾害，需要重视雨潮遭遇联合分布模拟与设计。以深圳市西乡河为例，采用年最大值法（AM）和超定量序列法（POT）两种选样方法，基于Copula方法模拟24h暴雨遭遇日高潮位的联合分布特征，对比雨潮遭遇传统重现期和二次重现期差异，根据同频法和权函数法反推计算雨潮设计组合值。结果表明：雨潮边缘分布最优模型均为广义正态分布（GNO），不同选样方法雨量分布模型参数差异明显。雨潮之间呈现较弱的正相依性，Archimedean Copulas均能较好地模拟雨潮遭遇联合分布特征，最优模型为Gumbel—Hougaard Copula。同频法反推雨潮设计组合值，二...
Saved in:
| Published in | 水科学进展 Vol. 28; no. 1; pp. 49 - 58 |
|---|---|
| Main Author | |
| Format | Journal Article |
| Language | Chinese |
| Published |
中山大学水资源与环境研究中心,广东广州510275
2017
广东省华南地区水安全调控工程技术研究中心,广东广州510275%深圳市水务规划设计院有限公司,广东深圳,518036%湖南省水利电力勘测设计研究总院,湖南长沙,410000 |
| Subjects | |
| Online Access | Get full text |
| ISSN | 1001-6791 |
| DOI | 10.14042/j.cnki.32.1309.2017.01.006 |
Cover
| Abstract | 滨海城市河流常常遭受暴雨和潮汐顶托双重影响导致洪涝灾害，需要重视雨潮遭遇联合分布模拟与设计。以深圳市西乡河为例，采用年最大值法（AM）和超定量序列法（POT）两种选样方法，基于Copula方法模拟24h暴雨遭遇日高潮位的联合分布特征，对比雨潮遭遇传统重现期和二次重现期差异，根据同频法和权函数法反推计算雨潮设计组合值。结果表明：雨潮边缘分布最优模型均为广义正态分布（GNO），不同选样方法雨量分布模型参数差异明显。雨潮之间呈现较弱的正相依性，Archimedean Copulas均能较好地模拟雨潮遭遇联合分布特征，最优模型为Gumbel—Hougaard Copula。同频法反推雨潮设计组合值，二次重现期雨量和潮位均大于传统联合重现期，POT选样的潮位大于AM。权函数法选出的雨潮设计组合值，偏重于较高的潮位，雨量设计值较小。当明确了选样方法、联合分布模型和重现期类型，给定联合重现期的雨潮设计组合值是个此消彼长的过程，若选择较大的雨量设计值，则潮位值变小，反之亦然。从防洪潮设计安全角度考虑，POT选样方法及二次重现期设计更为安全。 |
|---|---|
| AbstractList | TV122; 滨海城市河流常常遭受暴雨和潮汐顶托双重影响导致洪涝灾害,需要重视雨潮遭遇联合分布模拟与设计.以深圳市西乡河为例,采用年最大值法(AM)和超定量序列法(POT)两种选样方法,基于Copula方法模拟24 h暴雨遭遇日高潮位的联合分布特征,对比雨潮遭遇传统重现期和二次重现期差异,根据同频法和权函数法反推计算雨潮设计组合值.结果表明:雨潮边缘分布最优模型均为广义正态分布(GNO),不同选样方法雨量分布模型参数差异明显.雨潮之间呈现较弱的正相依性,Archimedean Copulas均能较好地模拟雨潮遭遇联合分布特征,最优模型为Gumbel-Hougaard Copula.同频法反推雨潮设计组合值,二次重现期雨量和潮位均大于传统联合重现期,POT选样的潮位大于AM.权函数法选出的雨潮设计组合值,偏重于较高的潮位,雨量设计值较小.当明确了选样方法、联合分布模型和重现期类型,给定联合重现期的雨潮设计组合值是个此消彼长的过程,若选择较大的雨量设计值,则潮位值变小,反之亦然.从防洪潮设计安全角度考虑,POT选样方法及二次重现期设计更为安全. 滨海城市河流常常遭受暴雨和潮汐顶托双重影响导致洪涝灾害，需要重视雨潮遭遇联合分布模拟与设计。以深圳市西乡河为例，采用年最大值法（AM）和超定量序列法（POT）两种选样方法，基于Copula方法模拟24h暴雨遭遇日高潮位的联合分布特征，对比雨潮遭遇传统重现期和二次重现期差异，根据同频法和权函数法反推计算雨潮设计组合值。结果表明：雨潮边缘分布最优模型均为广义正态分布（GNO），不同选样方法雨量分布模型参数差异明显。雨潮之间呈现较弱的正相依性，Archimedean Copulas均能较好地模拟雨潮遭遇联合分布特征，最优模型为Gumbel—Hougaard Copula。同频法反推雨潮设计组合值，二次重现期雨量和潮位均大于传统联合重现期，POT选样的潮位大于AM。权函数法选出的雨潮设计组合值，偏重于较高的潮位，雨量设计值较小。当明确了选样方法、联合分布模型和重现期类型，给定联合重现期的雨潮设计组合值是个此消彼长的过程，若选择较大的雨量设计值，则潮位值变小，反之亦然。从防洪潮设计安全角度考虑，POT选样方法及二次重现期设计更为安全。 |
| Abstract_FL | Instream flood in a coastal city usually occurs under the influence of heavy rain and high tidal level.Thus,modeling and design of joint distribution of precipitation and tide require increased attention.With Xixianghe River ba sin of Shenzhen city,Southern China,used as a case,24-hour data of heavy rain and comparative daily high tidal level are used for two sampling methods,namely,annual maximum (AM) and peaks over threshold (POT).The joint distribution model of precipitation and tide is established by using Copula functions.In this model,the difference be tween the traditional and second return periods of joint distribution of precipitation and tide is analyzed.The pair values of precipitation and tide are investigated according to two optimally designed methods,namely,equalized frequency method and most-likely weight function.Results show that the generalized normal distribution (GNO) is optimally selected to model the marginal distribution of precipitation and tide,but the differences of model parameters in precip itation are remarkable.Although precipitation and tide exhibit a weak positive dependence,Archimedean Copulas can well model their joint distribution,and the Gumbel-Hougaard Copula is selected as the optimal bivariate model.Ac cording to the equalized frequency method,the pair values of precipitation and tide designed by the second return period are greater than those designed by the traditional return period,and those designed by the POT series are greater than those designed by the AM series.However,the designed values of tide level are greater when associated with lower precipitation on the basis of the most-likely weight function.Provided that the sampling method,the joint distribu tion model,and the type of joint return period are confirmed,a reciprocal situation for a pair of designed values of precipitation and tide is manifested for given joint return periods,that is,a greater designed value of precipitation corresponds to a smaller designed value of tide,and vice versa.In ensuring a secure engineering design against flood disasters due to heavy rain and high tidal level in the coastal city,the sampling of POT and the bivariable design of the second return period are safer than those of AM and the traditional return period,respectively. |
| Author | 涂新军 杜奕良 陈晓宏 柴苑苑 卿颖 |
| AuthorAffiliation | 中山大学水资源与环境研究中心,广东广州510275 广东省华南地区水安全调控工程技术研究中心,广东广州510275 深圳市水务规划设计院有限公司,广东深圳518036 湖南省水利电力勘测设计研究总院,湖南长沙410000 |
| AuthorAffiliation_xml | – name: 中山大学水资源与环境研究中心,广东广州510275;广东省华南地区水安全调控工程技术研究中心,广东广州510275%深圳市水务规划设计院有限公司,广东深圳,518036%湖南省水利电力勘测设计研究总院,湖南长沙,410000 |
| Author_FL | TU Xinjun DU Yiliang CHAI Yuanyuan CHEN Xiaohong QING ying |
| Author_FL_xml | – sequence: 1 fullname: TU Xinjun – sequence: 2 fullname: DU Yiliang – sequence: 3 fullname: CHEN Xiaohong – sequence: 4 fullname: CHAI Yuanyuan – sequence: 5 fullname: QING ying |
| Author_xml | – sequence: 1 fullname: 涂新军 杜奕良 陈晓宏 柴苑苑 卿颖 |
| BookMark | eNotj7tKA0EYRqeIYIx5CQW7Hf-57MxOKcEbBGzSh9nZnbiJTjSLeOmiEANCsLCzCOnSmE4MiD6NuyRv4UqsvubwHc4GKrmuixHaJoAJB05329i4ToIZxYSBwhSIxEAwgCihMgEgnpCKrKNqmiYhAKW-VJSVEcs_p_n7RzYeZfP75es0_5ot-2_L_uOi_5I9D7PhIJs_5NNJ_jT-mY8Ws-_FbLKJ1qw-S-Pq_1ZQ42C_UTvy6ieHx7W9umf8QHiBDiNCKdFxZAKqlDXCF0JqLmMpuQ1EKKkOIIoja30fAsJMyAyJdWiFVZyzCtpZ3V5rZ7VrNdvdq54rhM20c9O--0uEokwU4NYKNKdd17pMCvSil5zr3m1TSMIZZ0qwX3MmZ98 |
| ClassificationCodes | TV122 |
| ContentType | Journal Article |
| Copyright | Copyright © Wanfang Data Co. Ltd. All Rights Reserved. |
| Copyright_xml | – notice: Copyright © Wanfang Data Co. Ltd. All Rights Reserved. |
| DBID | 2RA 92L CQIGP W94 ~WA 2B. 4A8 92I 93N PSX TCJ |
| DOI | 10.14042/j.cnki.32.1309.2017.01.006 |
| DatabaseName | 中文科技期刊数据库 中文科技期刊数据库-CALIS站点 中文科技期刊数据库-7.0平台 中文科技期刊数据库-自然科学 中文科技期刊数据库- 镜像站点 Wanfang Data Journals - Hong Kong WANFANG Data Centre Wanfang Data Journals 万方数据期刊 - 香港版 China Online Journals (COJ) China Online Journals (COJ) |
| DatabaseTitleList | |
| DeliveryMethod | fulltext_linktorsrc |
| Discipline | Geography |
| DocumentTitleAlternate | Modeling and design on joint distribution of precipitation and tide in the coastal city |
| DocumentTitle_FL | Modeling and design on joint distribution of precipitation and tide in the coastal city |
| EndPage | 58 |
| ExternalDocumentID | skxjz201701006 671434396 |
| GrantInformation_xml | – fundername: 国家自然科学基金资助项目(51479217,51479216)The study is financially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China funderid: (51479217,51479216) |
| GroupedDBID | -01 2B. 2C0 2RA 5XA 5XB 5XD 92H 92I 92L ACGFS ALMA_UNASSIGNED_HOLDINGS CCEZO CCVFK CQIGP CW9 TCJ TGT U1G U5M W94 ~WA 4A8 93N ABJNI PSX UY8 |
| ID | FETCH-LOGICAL-c586-8abd1221aedc8299fc65667a47e774f86b72a80dedff550813cb3c1eabf6f9443 |
| ISSN | 1001-6791 |
| IngestDate | Thu May 29 04:03:14 EDT 2025 Wed Feb 14 10:05:27 EST 2024 |
| IsPeerReviewed | true |
| IsScholarly | true |
| Issue | 1 |
| Keywords | 设计组合值 滨海城市 encounter of heavy rain and high tidal level a pair of designed values 二次重现期 peaks over threshold Copula function second return period coastal city Copula函数 雨潮遭遇 超定量序列法 |
| Language | Chinese |
| LinkModel | OpenURL |
| MergedId | FETCHMERGED-LOGICAL-c586-8abd1221aedc8299fc65667a47e774f86b72a80dedff550813cb3c1eabf6f9443 |
| Notes | Instream flood in a coastal city usually occurs under the influence of heavy rain and high tidal level. Thus, modeling and design of joint distribution of precipitation and tide require increased attention. With Xixianghe River basin of Shenzhen city, Southern China, used as a case, 24-hour data of heavy rain and comparative daily high tidal level are used for two sampling methods, namely, annual maximum （AM） and peaks over threshold （POT）. The joint distribution model of precipitation and tide is established by using Copula functions. In this model, the difference between the traditional and second return periods of joint distribution of precipitation and tide is analyzed. The pair values of precipitation and tide are investigated according to two optimally designed methods, namely, equalized frequency method and most-likely weight function. Results show that the generalized normal distribution （GNO） is optimally selected to model the marginal distribution of precipitation and tide, but the differences of mo |
| PageCount | 10 |
| ParticipantIDs | wanfang_journals_skxjz201701006 chongqing_primary_671434396 |
| PublicationCentury | 2000 |
| PublicationDate | 2017 |
| PublicationDateYYYYMMDD | 2017-01-01 |
| PublicationDate_xml | – year: 2017 text: 2017 |
| PublicationDecade | 2010 |
| PublicationTitle | 水科学进展 |
| PublicationTitleAlternate | Advances in Water Science |
| PublicationTitle_FL | Advances in Water Science |
| PublicationYear | 2017 |
| Publisher | 中山大学水资源与环境研究中心,广东广州510275 广东省华南地区水安全调控工程技术研究中心,广东广州510275%深圳市水务规划设计院有限公司,广东深圳,518036%湖南省水利电力勘测设计研究总院,湖南长沙,410000 |
| Publisher_xml | – name: 中山大学水资源与环境研究中心,广东广州510275 – name: 广东省华南地区水安全调控工程技术研究中心,广东广州510275%深圳市水务规划设计院有限公司,广东深圳,518036%湖南省水利电力勘测设计研究总院,湖南长沙,410000 |
| SSID | ssib002257923 ssib023167946 ssj0039382 ssib025872836 ssib051373317 ssib000862358 |
| Score | 2.1189632 |
| Snippet | ... TV122; 滨海城市河流常常遭受暴雨和潮汐顶托双重影响导致洪涝灾害,需要重视雨潮遭遇联合分布模拟与设计.以深圳市西乡河为例,采用年最大值法(AM)和超定量序列法(POT)两种选样方法,基于Copula方法模拟24... |
| SourceID | wanfang chongqing |
| SourceType | Aggregation Database Publisher |
| StartPage | 49 |
| SubjectTerms | Copula函数 二次重现期 滨海城市 设计组合值 超定量序列法 雨潮遭遇 |
| Title | 滨海城市雨潮遭遇联合分布模拟与设计 |
| URI | http://lib.cqvip.com/qk/97113X/201701/671434396.html https://d.wanfangdata.com.cn/periodical/skxjz201701006 |
| Volume | 28 |
| hasFullText | 1 |
| inHoldings | 1 |
| isFullTextHit | |
| isPrint | |
| link | http://utb.summon.serialssolutions.com/2.0.0/link/0/eLvHCXMwnR3LahRBsIkJqBfxiTE-AtqnsHG7p6en-jiTnTEIeloht2WeSQxs1CQge4uCBoTgwZuHkFsu5iYGRD_Cb3CX5C-s6pkdV6OiXobanq7q6q7e7qruqSrGbmmVAe4qsqEgVRRUu9mIIc0bCaRJkReo4ApycL53X88_UHcX3IWxsS8jXy1trCezae-XfiX_I1UsQ7mSl-w_SLYmigUIo3zxiRLG51_JmIeaBwH3wQIuDzweutxEHEICAuAgeWi4qeu0uB9SCQjutyoAEAsIMMqiNzkAAfgEPaTjEDoS8QUBEFArobKvQkJHssEQ8MWoymvbbfIAiXvc97gRRBNb9zXVDyJij1pBBtyh_C2StuxrbiwB4gjhYMYWtbiZs3SQYdfyb7gfzdjeGtsBTYBxbKWQQ1TiRZYRsD0QNTBjqbeIGSTgS17mvx0eh5R-n9XaTV-Haa9M_jVc3CUcm8TlSl0GSq32_DJ6_LHdROGKZreTtLuyPOtISp1Nzk3Cs6Femz_F8LZagaaE8qjl6RNsQnqecMfZhB-0gugHI9IZuYvGFXU0iKOk2ATmu5EuXfBQB6x_u8KhPJv1sYJjHCjv9Kvun2Q3h8zf_j3rFEtkabW7-Bg1JOuw1i3i7uKIbtU-y85URtG0X87wc2yst3SenbqTV-HULzBn8HFv8P5Df2e7f_Ds6O3e4NP-0ea7o82Xh5tv-q-3-lsv-gfPB3u7g1c7Xw-2D_c_H-7vXmTtKGzPzTeqdB-N1AXdgDjJhJQizrMUUEkqUjI1vFh5OZooBejEkzE0szwrCjSrQThp4qQij5NCF0Yp5xIb765288tsGvJMF9K4uTSpUokyBV0uo-pL5rF2skk2Vfe986iM6tKpBTfJblSj0an-62udtZWnD3s0ek0cZn3lj_hT7DTVLM_prrLx9Scb-TXUXNeT69VU-AYwTHFR |
| linkProvider | EBSCOhost |
| openUrl | ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&ctx_enc=info%3Aofi%2Fenc%3AUTF-8&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fsummon.serialssolutions.com&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=article&rft.atitle=%E6%BB%A8%E6%B5%B7%E5%9F%8E%E5%B8%82%E9%9B%A8%E6%BD%AE%E9%81%AD%E9%81%87%E8%81%94%E5%90%88%E5%88%86%E5%B8%83%E6%A8%A1%E6%8B%9F%E4%B8%8E%E8%AE%BE%E8%AE%A1&rft.jtitle=%E6%B0%B4%E7%A7%91%E5%AD%A6%E8%BF%9B%E5%B1%95&rft.au=%E6%B6%82%E6%96%B0%E5%86%9B+%E6%9D%9C%E5%A5%95%E8%89%AF+%E9%99%88%E6%99%93%E5%AE%8F+%E6%9F%B4%E8%8B%91%E8%8B%91+%E5%8D%BF%E9%A2%96&rft.date=2017&rft.issn=1001-6791&rft.volume=28&rft.issue=1&rft.spage=49&rft.epage=58&rft_id=info:doi/10.14042%2Fj.cnki.32.1309.2017.01.006&rft.externalDocID=671434396 |
| thumbnail_s | http://utb.summon.serialssolutions.com/2.0.0/image/custom?url=http%3A%2F%2Fimage.cqvip.com%2Fvip1000%2Fqk%2F97113X%2F97113X.jpg http://utb.summon.serialssolutions.com/2.0.0/image/custom?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.wanfangdata.com.cn%2Fimages%2FPeriodicalImages%2Fskxjz%2Fskxjz.jpg |