Keeping it simple: the value of an irreducibly simple climate model
Richardson et al. (Sci Bull, 2015. doi:10.1007/s11434-015-0806-z) suggest that the irreducibly simple climate model described in Monckton of Brenchley et al. (Sci Bull 60:122–135, 2015. doi:10.1007/s11434-014-0699-2) was not validated against observations, relying instead on synthetic test data base...
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| Published in | Science bulletin (Beijing) Vol. 60; no. 15; pp. 1378 - 1390 |
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| Main Authors | , , , |
| Format | Journal Article |
| Language | English |
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Beijing
Elsevier B.V
01.08.2015
Science China Press |
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| Abstract | Richardson et al. (Sci Bull, 2015. doi:10.1007/s11434-015-0806-z) suggest that the irreducibly simple climate model described in Monckton of Brenchley et al. (Sci Bull 60:122–135, 2015. doi:10.1007/s11434-014-0699-2) was not validated against observations, relying instead on synthetic test data based on underestimated global warming, illogical parameter choice and near-instantaneous response at odds with ocean warming and other observations. However, the simple model, informed by its authors’ choice of parameters, usually hindcasts observed temperature change more closely than the general-circulation models, and finds high climate sensitivity implausible. With IPCC’s choice of parameters, the model is further validated in that it duly replicates IPCC’s sensitivity interval. Also, fast climate system response is consistent with near-zero or net-negative temperature feedback. Given the large uncertainties in the initial conditions and evolutionary processes determinative of climate sensitivity, subject to obvious caveats a simple sensitivity-focused model need not, and the present model does not, exhibit significantly less predictive skill than the general-circulation models. |
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| AbstractList | Richardson et al. (Sci Bull, 2015. doi:10.1007/s11434-015-0806-z) suggest that the irreducibly simple climate model described in Monckton of Brenchley et al. (Sci Bull 60:122-135, 2015. doi:10.1007/s11434-014-0699-2) was not validated against observations, relying instead on synthetic test data based on underestimated global warming, illogical parameter choice and near-instantaneous response at odds with ocean warming and other observations. However, the simple model, informed by its authors' choice of parameters, usually hindcasts observed temperature change more closely than the general-circulation models, and finds high climate sensitivity implausible. With IPCC's choice of parameters, the model is further validated in that it duly replicates IPCC's sensitivity interval. Also, fast climate system response is consistent with near-zero or net-negative temperature feedback. Given the large uncertainties in the initial conditions and evolutionary processes determinative of climate sensitivity, subject to obvious caveats a simple sensitivity-focused model need not, and the present model does not, exhibit significantly less predictive skill than the general-circulation models. Richardson et al. (Sci Bull, 2015 . doi:10.1007/s11434-015-0806-z) suggest that the irreducibly simple climate model described in Monckton of Brenchley et al. (Sci Bull 60:122–135, 2015 . doi:10.1007/s11434-014-0699-2) was not validated against observations, relying instead on synthetic test data based on underestimated global warming, illogical parameter choice and near-instantaneous response at odds with ocean warming and other observations. However, the simple model, informed by its authors’ choice of parameters, usually hindcasts observed temperature change more closely than the general-circulation models, and finds high climate sensitivity implausible. With IPCC’s choice of parameters, the model is further validated in that it duly replicates IPCC’s sensitivity interval. Also, fast climate system response is consistent with near-zero or net-negative temperature feedback. Given the large uncertainties in the initial conditions and evolutionary processes determinative of climate sensitivity, subject to obvious caveats a simple sensitivity-focused model need not, and the present model does not, exhibit significantly less predictive skill than the general-circulation models. Richardson et al. (Sci Bull, 2015 . doi: 10.1007/s11434-015-0806-z ) suggest that the irreducibly simple climate model described in Monckton of Brenchley et al. (Sci Bull 60:122–135, 2015 . doi: 10.1007/s11434-014-0699-2 ) was not validated against observations, relying instead on synthetic test data based on underestimated global warming, illogical parameter choice and near-instantaneous response at odds with ocean warming and other observations. However, the simple model, informed by its authors’ choice of parameters, usually hindcasts observed temperature change more closely than the general-circulation models, and finds high climate sensitivity implausible. With IPCC’s choice of parameters, the model is further validated in that it duly replicates IPCC’s sensitivity interval. Also, fast climate system response is consistent with near-zero or net-negative temperature feedback. Given the large uncertainties in the initial conditions and evolutionary processes determinative of climate sensitivity, subject to obvious caveats a simple sensitivity-focused model need not, and the present model does not, exhibit significantly less predictive skill than the general-circulation models. |
| Author | Legates, David R. Briggs, William M. Soon, Willie W.-H. Monckton of Brenchley, Christopher |
| Author_xml | – sequence: 1 givenname: Christopher surname: Monckton of Brenchley fullname: Monckton of Brenchley, Christopher email: monckton@mail.com organization: Science and Public Policy Institute, Haymarket, VA 20169, USA – sequence: 2 givenname: Willie W.-H. surname: Soon fullname: Soon, Willie W.-H. organization: Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA – sequence: 3 givenname: David R. surname: Legates fullname: Legates, David R. organization: Department of Geography, University of Delaware, Newark, DE 19716, USA – sequence: 4 givenname: William M. surname: Briggs fullname: Briggs, William M. organization: New York, NY 10021, USA |
| BackLink | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26301116$$D View this record in MEDLINE/PubMed |
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| Keywords | Temperature feedbacks Climate change Climate models Global warming Climate sensitivity |
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| Snippet | Richardson et al. (Sci Bull, 2015. doi:10.1007/s11434-015-0806-z) suggest that the irreducibly simple climate model described in Monckton of Brenchley et al.... Richardson et al. (Sci Bull, 2015. doi: 10.1007/s11434-015-0806-z) suggest that the irreducibly simple climate model described in Monckton of Brenchley et al.... Richardson et al. (Sci Bull, 2015 . doi: 10.1007/s11434-015-0806-z ) suggest that the irreducibly simple climate model described in Monckton of Brenchley et... Richardson et al. (Sci Bull, 2015 . doi:10.1007/s11434-015-0806-z) suggest that the irreducibly simple climate model described in Monckton of Brenchley et al.... |
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| Title | Keeping it simple: the value of an irreducibly simple climate model |
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