Natural climate solutions
Better stewardship of land is needed to achieve the Paris Climate Agreement goal of holding warming to below 2 °C; however, confusion persists about the specific set of land stewardship options available and their mitigation potential. To address this, we identify and quantify “natural climate solut...
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| Published in | Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences - PNAS Vol. 114; no. 44; pp. 11645 - 11650 |
|---|---|
| Main Authors | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
| Format | Journal Article |
| Language | English |
| Published |
United States
National Academy of Sciences
31.10.2017
|
| Subjects | |
| Online Access | Get full text |
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| Abstract | Better stewardship of land is needed to achieve the Paris Climate Agreement goal of holding warming to below 2 °C; however, confusion persists about the specific set of land stewardship options available and their mitigation potential. To address this, we identify and quantify “natural climate solutions” (NCS): 20 conservation, restoration, and improved land management actions that increase carbon storage and/or avoid greenhouse gas emissions across global forests, wetlands, grasslands, and agricultural lands. We find that the maximum potential of NCS—when constrained by food security, fiber security, and biodiversity conservation—is 23.8 petagrams of CO₂ equivalent (PgCO₂e)y−1 (95% CI 20.3–37.4). This is ≥30% higher than prior estimates, which did not include the full range of options and safeguards considered here. About half of this maximum (11.3 PgCO₂e y−1) represents cost-effective climate mitigation, assuming the social cost of CO₂ pollution is ≥100 USD MgCO₂e−1 by 2030. Natural climate solutions can provide 37% of cost-effective CO₂ mitigation needed through 2030 for a >66% chance of holding warming to below 2 °C. One-third of this cost-effective NCS mitigation can be delivered at or below 10 USD MgCO₂−1. Most NCS actions—if effectively implemented—also offer water filtration, flood buffering, soil health, biodiversity habitat, and enhanced climate resilience. Work remains to better constrain uncertainty of NCS mitigation estimates. Nevertheless, existing knowledge reported here provides a robust basis for immediate global action to improve ecosystem stewardship as a major solution to climate change. |
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| AbstractList | Better stewardship of land is needed to achieve the Paris Climate Agreement goal of holding warming to below 2 °C; however, confusion persists about the specific set of land stewardship options available and their mitigation potential. To address this, we identify and quantify "natural climate solutions" (NCS): 20 conservation, restoration, and improved land management actions that increase carbon storage and/or avoid greenhouse gas emissions across global forests, wetlands, grasslands, and agricultural lands. We find that the maximum potential of NCS-when constrained by food security, fiber security, and biodiversity conservation-is 23.8 petagrams of CO
equivalent (PgCO
e) y
(95% CI 20.3-37.4). This is ≥30% higher than prior estimates, which did not include the full range of options and safeguards considered here. About half of this maximum (11.3 PgCO
e y
) represents cost-effective climate mitigation, assuming the social cost of CO
pollution is ≥100 USD MgCO
e
by 2030. Natural climate solutions can provide 37% of cost-effective CO
mitigation needed through 2030 for a >66% chance of holding warming to below 2 °C. One-third of this cost-effective NCS mitigation can be delivered at or below 10 USD MgCO
Most NCS actions-if effectively implemented-also offer water filtration, flood buffering, soil health, biodiversity habitat, and enhanced climate resilience. Work remains to better constrain uncertainty of NCS mitigation estimates. Nevertheless, existing knowledge reported here provides a robust basis for immediate global action to improve ecosystem stewardship as a major solution to climate change. Better stewardship of land is needed to achieve the Paris Climate Agreement goal of holding warming to below 2 °C; however, confusion persists about the specific set of land stewardship options available and their mitigation potential. To address this, we identify and quantify “natural climate solutions” (NCS): 20 conservation, restoration, and improved land management actions that increase carbon storage and/or avoid greenhouse gas emissions across global forests, wetlands, grasslands, and agricultural lands. We find that the maximum potential of NCS—when constrained by food security, fiber security, and biodiversity conservation—is 23.8 petagrams of CO₂ equivalent (PgCO₂e) y⁻¹ (95% CI 20.3–37.4). This is ≥30% higher than prior estimates, which did not include the full range of options and safeguards considered here. About half of this maximum (11.3 PgCO₂e y⁻¹) represents cost-effective climate mitigation, assuming the social cost of CO₂ pollution is ≥100 USD MgCO₂e⁻¹ by 2030. Natural climate solutions can provide 37% of cost-effective CO₂ mitigation needed through 2030 for a >66% chance of holding warming to below 2 °C. One-third of this cost-effective NCS mitigation can be delivered at or below 10 USD MgCO₂⁻¹. Most NCS actions—if effectively implemented—also offer water filtration, flood buffering, soil health, biodiversity habitat, and enhanced climate resilience. Work remains to better constrain uncertainty of NCS mitigation estimates. Nevertheless, existing knowledge reported here provides a robust basis for immediate global action to improve ecosystem stewardship as a major solution to climate change. Most nations recently agreed to hold global average temperature rise to well below 2 °C. We examine how much climate mitigation nature can contribute to this goal with a comprehensive analysis of “natural climate solutions” (NCS): 20 conservation, restoration, and/or improved land management actions that increase carbon storage and/or avoid greenhouse gas emissions across global forests, wetlands, grasslands, and agricultural lands. We show that NCS can provide over one-third of the cost-effective climate mitigation needed between now and 2030 to stabilize warming to below 2 °C. Alongside aggressive fossil fuel emissions reductions, NCS offer a powerful set of options for nations to deliver on the Paris Climate Agreement while improving soil productivity, cleaning our air and water, and maintaining biodiversity. Better stewardship of land is needed to achieve the Paris Climate Agreement goal of holding warming to below 2 °C; however, confusion persists about the specific set of land stewardship options available and their mitigation potential. To address this, we identify and quantify “natural climate solutions” (NCS): 20 conservation, restoration, and improved land management actions that increase carbon storage and/or avoid greenhouse gas emissions across global forests, wetlands, grasslands, and agricultural lands. We find that the maximum potential of NCS—when constrained by food security, fiber security, and biodiversity conservation—is 23.8 petagrams of CO 2 equivalent (PgCO 2 e) y −1 (95% CI 20.3–37.4). This is ≥30% higher than prior estimates, which did not include the full range of options and safeguards considered here. About half of this maximum (11.3 PgCO 2 e y −1 ) represents cost-effective climate mitigation, assuming the social cost of CO 2 pollution is ≥100 USD MgCO 2 e −1 by 2030. Natural climate solutions can provide 37% of cost-effective CO 2 mitigation needed through 2030 for a >66% chance of holding warming to below 2 °C. One-third of this cost-effective NCS mitigation can be delivered at or below 10 USD MgCO 2 −1 . Most NCS actions—if effectively implemented—also offer water filtration, flood buffering, soil health, biodiversity habitat, and enhanced climate resilience. Work remains to better constrain uncertainty of NCS mitigation estimates. Nevertheless, existing knowledge reported here provides a robust basis for immediate global action to improve ecosystem stewardship as a major solution to climate change. Better stewardship of land is needed to achieve the Paris Climate Agreement goal of holding warming to below 2 °C; however, confusion persists about the specific set of land stewardship options available and their mitigation potential. To address this, we identify and quantify “natural climate solutions” (NCS): 20 conservation, restoration, and improved land management actions that increase carbon storage and/or avoid greenhouse gas emissions across global forests, wetlands, grasslands, and agricultural lands. We find that the maximum potential of NCS—when constrained by food security, fiber security, and biodiversity conservation—is 23.8 petagrams of CO₂ equivalent (PgCO₂e)y−1 (95% CI 20.3–37.4). This is ≥30% higher than prior estimates, which did not include the full range of options and safeguards considered here. About half of this maximum (11.3 PgCO₂e y−1) represents cost-effective climate mitigation, assuming the social cost of CO₂ pollution is ≥100 USD MgCO₂e−1 by 2030. Natural climate solutions can provide 37% of cost-effective CO₂ mitigation needed through 2030 for a >66% chance of holding warming to below 2 °C. One-third of this cost-effective NCS mitigation can be delivered at or below 10 USD MgCO₂−1. Most NCS actions—if effectively implemented—also offer water filtration, flood buffering, soil health, biodiversity habitat, and enhanced climate resilience. Work remains to better constrain uncertainty of NCS mitigation estimates. Nevertheless, existing knowledge reported here provides a robust basis for immediate global action to improve ecosystem stewardship as a major solution to climate change. Better stewardship of land is needed to achieve the Paris Climate Agreement goal of holding warming to below 2 °C; however, confusion persists about the specific set of land stewardship options available and their mitigation potential. To address this, we identify and quantify "natural climate solutions" (NCS): 20 conservation, restoration, and improved land management actions that increase carbon storage and/or avoid greenhouse gas emissions across global forests, wetlands, grasslands, and agricultural lands. We find that the maximum potential of NCS-when constrained by food security, fiber security, and biodiversity conservation-is 23.8 petagrams of CO2 equivalent (PgCO2e) y-1 (95% CI 20.3-37.4). This is ≥30% higher than prior estimates, which did not include the full range of options and safeguards considered here. About half of this maximum (11.3 PgCO2e y-1) represents cost-effective climate mitigation, assuming the social cost of CO2 pollution is ≥100 USD MgCO2e-1 by 2030. Natural climate solutions can provide 37% of cost-effective CO2 mitigation needed through 2030 for a >66% chance of holding warming to below 2 °C. One-third of this cost-effective NCS mitigation can be delivered at or below 10 USD MgCO2-1. Most NCS actions-if effectively implemented-also offer water filtration, flood buffering, soil health, biodiversity habitat, and enhanced climate resilience. Work remains to better constrain uncertainty of NCS mitigation estimates. Nevertheless, existing knowledge reported here provides a robust basis for immediate global action to improve ecosystem stewardship as a major solution to climate change. Better stewardship of land is needed to achieve the Paris Climate Agreement goal of holding warming to below 2 °C; however, confusion persists about the specific set of land stewardship options available and their mitigation potential. To address this, we identify and quantify "natural climate solutions" (NCS): 20 conservation, restoration, and improved land management actions that increase carbon storage and/or avoid greenhouse gas emissions across global forests, wetlands, grasslands, and agricultural lands. We find that the maximum potential of NCS-when constrained by food security, fiber security, and biodiversity conservation-is 23.8 petagrams of CO2 equivalent (PgCO2e) y-1 (95% CI 20.3-37.4). This is ≥30% higher than prior estimates, which did not include the full range of options and safeguards considered here. About half of this maximum (11.3 PgCO2e y-1) represents cost-effective climate mitigation, assuming the social cost of CO2 pollution is ≥100 USD MgCO2e-1 by 2030. Natural climate solutions can provide 37% of cost-effective CO2 mitigation needed through 2030 for a >66% chance of holding warming to below 2 °C. One-third of this cost-effective NCS mitigation can be delivered at or below 10 USD MgCO2-1 Most NCS actions-if effectively implemented-also offer water filtration, flood buffering, soil health, biodiversity habitat, and enhanced climate resilience. Work remains to better constrain uncertainty of NCS mitigation estimates. Nevertheless, existing knowledge reported here provides a robust basis for immediate global action to improve ecosystem stewardship as a major solution to climate change.Better stewardship of land is needed to achieve the Paris Climate Agreement goal of holding warming to below 2 °C; however, confusion persists about the specific set of land stewardship options available and their mitigation potential. To address this, we identify and quantify "natural climate solutions" (NCS): 20 conservation, restoration, and improved land management actions that increase carbon storage and/or avoid greenhouse gas emissions across global forests, wetlands, grasslands, and agricultural lands. We find that the maximum potential of NCS-when constrained by food security, fiber security, and biodiversity conservation-is 23.8 petagrams of CO2 equivalent (PgCO2e) y-1 (95% CI 20.3-37.4). This is ≥30% higher than prior estimates, which did not include the full range of options and safeguards considered here. About half of this maximum (11.3 PgCO2e y-1) represents cost-effective climate mitigation, assuming the social cost of CO2 pollution is ≥100 USD MgCO2e-1 by 2030. Natural climate solutions can provide 37% of cost-effective CO2 mitigation needed through 2030 for a >66% chance of holding warming to below 2 °C. One-third of this cost-effective NCS mitigation can be delivered at or below 10 USD MgCO2-1 Most NCS actions-if effectively implemented-also offer water filtration, flood buffering, soil health, biodiversity habitat, and enhanced climate resilience. Work remains to better constrain uncertainty of NCS mitigation estimates. Nevertheless, existing knowledge reported here provides a robust basis for immediate global action to improve ecosystem stewardship as a major solution to climate change. Better stewardship of land is needed to achieve the Paris Climate Agreement goal of holding warming to below 2 degrees C; however, confusion persists about the specific set of land stewardship options available and their mitigation potential. To address this, we identify and quantify "natural climate solutions" (NCS): 20 conservation, restoration, and improved land management actions that increase carbon storage and/or avoid greenhouse gas emissions across global forests, wetlands, grasslands, and agricultural lands. We find that the maximum potential of NCS-when constrained by food security, fiber security, and biodiversity conservation-is 23.8 petagrams of CO2 equivalent (PgCO(2)e) y(-1) (95% Cl 20.3-37.4). This is >= 30% higher than prior estimates, which did not include the full range of options and safeguards considered here. About half of this maximum (11.3 PgCO(2)e(-1)) represents cost-effective climate mitigation, assuming the social cost of CO2 pollution is >= 100 USD MgCO(2)e(-1) by 2030. Natural climate solutions can provide 37% of cost-effective CO2 mitigation needed through 2030 for a >66% chance of holding warming to below 2 degrees C. One-third of this cost-effective NCS mitigation can be delivered at or below 10 USD MgCO2-1. Most NCS actions-if effectively implemented-also offer water filtration, flood buffering, soil health, biodiversity habitat, and enhanced climate resilience. Work remains to better constrain uncertainty of NCS mitigation estimates. Nevertheless, existing knowledge reported here provides a robust basis for immediate global action to improve ecosystem stewardship as a major solution to climate change. |
| Author | Blackman, Allen Hamsik, Marisa R. Minnemeyer, Susan Elias, Patricia Wollenberg, Eva Schlesinger, William H. Woodbury, Peter Polasky, Stephen Silvius, Marcel Houghton, Richard A. Putz, Francis E. Laestadius, Lars Smith, Pete Herrero, Mario Sanderman, Jonathan Lomax, Guy Shoch, David Conant, Richard T. Ellis, Peter W. Campari, João Siikamäki, Juha V. Griscom, Bronson W. Leavitt, Sara M. Potapov, Peter Zganjar, Chris Adams, Justin Landis, Emily Fargione, Joseph Miteva, Daniela A. Gopalakrishna, Trisha Kiesecker, Joseph Delgado, Christopher |
| Author_xml | – sequence: 1 givenname: Bronson W. surname: Griscom fullname: Griscom, Bronson W. organization: The Nature Conservancy, Arlington, VA 22203 – sequence: 2 givenname: Justin surname: Adams fullname: Adams, Justin organization: The Nature Conservancy, Arlington, VA 22203 – sequence: 3 givenname: Peter W. surname: Ellis fullname: Ellis, Peter W. organization: The Nature Conservancy, Arlington, VA 22203 – sequence: 4 givenname: Richard A. surname: Houghton fullname: Houghton, Richard A. organization: Woods Hole Research Center, Falmouth, MA 02540 – sequence: 5 givenname: Guy surname: Lomax fullname: Lomax, Guy organization: The Nature Conservancy, Arlington, VA 22203 – sequence: 6 givenname: Daniela A. surname: Miteva fullname: Miteva, Daniela A. organization: Department of Agricultural, Environmental, and Development Economics, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH 43210 – sequence: 7 givenname: William H. surname: Schlesinger fullname: Schlesinger, William H. organization: Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies, Millbrook, NY 12545 – sequence: 8 givenname: David surname: Shoch fullname: Shoch, David organization: TerraCarbon LLC, Charlottesville, VA 22903 – sequence: 9 givenname: Juha V. surname: Siikamäki fullname: Siikamäki, Juha V. organization: Resources for the Future, Washington, DC 20036 – sequence: 10 givenname: Pete surname: Smith fullname: Smith, Pete organization: Institute of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, AB24 3UU, Scotland, United Kingdom – sequence: 11 givenname: Peter surname: Woodbury fullname: Woodbury, Peter organization: College of Agriculture and Life Sciences, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14853-1901 – sequence: 12 givenname: Chris surname: Zganjar fullname: Zganjar, Chris organization: The Nature Conservancy, Arlington, VA 22203 – sequence: 13 givenname: Allen surname: Blackman fullname: Blackman, Allen organization: Resources for the Future, Washington, DC 20036 – sequence: 14 givenname: João surname: Campari fullname: Campari, João organization: Ministry of Agriculture, Government of Brazil, Brasilia 70000, Brazil – sequence: 15 givenname: Richard T. surname: Conant fullname: Conant, Richard T. organization: Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory & Department of Ecosystem Science and Sustainability, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80523-1499 – sequence: 16 givenname: Christopher surname: Delgado fullname: Delgado, Christopher organization: World Resources Institute, Washington, DC 20002 – sequence: 17 givenname: Patricia surname: Elias fullname: Elias, Patricia organization: The Nature Conservancy, Arlington, VA 22203 – sequence: 18 givenname: Trisha surname: Gopalakrishna fullname: Gopalakrishna, Trisha organization: The Nature Conservancy, Arlington, VA 22203 – sequence: 19 givenname: Marisa R. surname: Hamsik fullname: Hamsik, Marisa R. organization: The Nature Conservancy, Arlington, VA 22203 – sequence: 20 givenname: Mario surname: Herrero fullname: Herrero, Mario organization: Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization, St. Lucia, QLD 4067, Australia – sequence: 21 givenname: Joseph surname: Kiesecker fullname: Kiesecker, Joseph organization: The Nature Conservancy, Arlington, VA 22203 – sequence: 22 givenname: Emily surname: Landis fullname: Landis, Emily organization: The Nature Conservancy, Arlington, VA 22203 – sequence: 23 givenname: Lars surname: Laestadius fullname: Laestadius, Lars organization: World Resources Institute, Washington, DC 20002 – sequence: 24 givenname: Sara M. surname: Leavitt fullname: Leavitt, Sara M. organization: The Nature Conservancy, Arlington, VA 22203 – sequence: 25 givenname: Susan surname: Minnemeyer fullname: Minnemeyer, Susan organization: World Resources Institute, Washington, DC 20002 – sequence: 26 givenname: Stephen surname: Polasky fullname: Polasky, Stephen organization: Department of Applied Economics, University of Minnesota, Saint Paul, MN 55108 – sequence: 27 givenname: Peter surname: Potapov fullname: Potapov, Peter organization: Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742 – sequence: 28 givenname: Francis E. surname: Putz fullname: Putz, Francis E. organization: Department of Biology, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611-8526 – sequence: 29 givenname: Jonathan surname: Sanderman fullname: Sanderman, Jonathan organization: Woods Hole Research Center, Falmouth, MA 02540 – sequence: 30 givenname: Marcel surname: Silvius fullname: Silvius, Marcel organization: Wetlands International, 6700 AL Wageningen, The Netherlands – sequence: 31 givenname: Eva surname: Wollenberg fullname: Wollenberg, Eva organization: Gund Institute for the Environment, University of Vermont, Burlington, VT 05405 – sequence: 32 givenname: Joseph surname: Fargione fullname: Fargione, Joseph organization: The Nature Conservancy, Arlington, VA 22203 |
| BackLink | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29078344$$D View this record in MEDLINE/PubMed https://res.slu.se/id/publ/93131$$DView record from Swedish Publication Index |
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| Copyright | Volumes 1–89 and 106–114, copyright as a collective work only; author(s) retains copyright to individual articles Copyright National Academy of Sciences Oct 31, 2017 |
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| Keywords | agriculture wetlands climate mitigation forests ecosystems |
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| Notes | SourceType-Scholarly Journals-1 ObjectType-Feature-1 content type line 14 ObjectType-Article-1 ObjectType-Feature-2 content type line 23 Reviewers: J. Funk, Center for Carbon Removal; and W.R.T., Conservation International. Contributed by William H. Schlesinger, September 5, 2017 (sent for review June 26, 2017; reviewed by Jason Funk and Will R. Turner) Author contributions: B.W.G., J.A., P.W.E., R.A.H., G.L., D.A.M., W.H.S., D.S., J.V.S., P.S., P.W., C.Z., A.B., J.C., R.T.C., C.D., M.R.H., J.K., E.L., S.P., F.E.P., J.S., M.S., E.W., and J. Fargione designed research; B.W.G., P.W.E., R.A.H., G.L., D.A.M., W.H.S., D.S., J.V.S., P.W., C.Z., R.T.C., P.E., J.K., E.L., and J. Fargione performed research; L.L., S.M., and P.P. contributed new reagents/analytic tools; B.W.G., P.W.E., R.A.H., G.L., D.A.M., D.S., J.V.S., P.W., C.Z., T.G., M.H., S.M.L., and J. Fargione analyzed data; and B.W.G., J.A., P.W.E., G.L., D.A.M., W.H.S, D.S., P.S., P.W., C.Z., S.M.L., and J. Fargione wrote the paper. |
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| Snippet | Better stewardship of land is needed to achieve the Paris Climate Agreement goal of holding warming to below 2 °C; however, confusion persists about the... Most nations recently agreed to hold global average temperature rise to well below 2 °C. We examine how much climate mitigation nature can contribute to this... Better stewardship of land is needed to achieve the Paris Climate Agreement goal of holding warming to below 2 degrees C; however, confusion persists about the... |
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| SubjectTerms | Agricultural land Agricultural management Biodiversity Carbon dioxide Carbon sequestration Climate Climate adaptation Climate change Climate change mitigation Climate Research Conservation cost effectiveness Ecosystems Environmental policy Environmental stewardship filtration Food security Grasslands Greenhouse effect Greenhouse gases habitats Klimatforskning Land conservation Land management Land use planning Paris Agreement Physical Sciences pollution Restoration Social Sciences soil quality uncertainty Water filtration Water pollution Water purification Wetlands Wildlife conservation |
| Title | Natural climate solutions |
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