Increase in observed net carbon dioxide uptake by land and oceans during the past 50 years
A comprehensive carbon dioxide mass balance analysis shows that net global carbon uptake has increased by about 0.05 billion tonnes per year over the past 50 years and that in that time the global carbon uptake has almost doubled, making it unlikely that land and ocean carbon sinks have decreased on...
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| Published in | Nature (London) Vol. 488; no. 7409; pp. 70 - 72 |
|---|---|
| Main Authors | , , , , |
| Format | Journal Article |
| Language | English |
| Published |
London
Nature Publishing Group UK
02.08.2012
Nature Publishing Group |
| Subjects | |
| Online Access | Get full text |
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| Abstract | A comprehensive carbon dioxide mass balance analysis shows that net global carbon uptake has increased by about 0.05 billion tonnes per year over the past 50 years and that in that time the global carbon uptake has almost doubled, making it unlikely that land and ocean carbon sinks have decreased on a global scale.
Carbon sinks hold firm
The current state of land and ocean carbon sinks has been the subject of intense debate, because it has implications for how the carbon cycle might respond to climate change. About half of the current carbon dioxide emissions are taken up by land and ocean carbon sinks. Model studies predict a decline in future carbon sinks, resulting in a positive carbon-climate feedback, and several recent studies have suggested that land and ocean carbon sinks are beginning to wane. These authors use a global mass balance approach to audit the global carbon cycle, focusing on well-constrained observations of atmospheric carbon dioxide and estimates of anthropogenic emissions and a rigorous analysis of uncertainties. They find that carbon sinks have actually doubled during the past 50 years and continue to increase significantly. There were no signs, as of 2010, that carbon uptake has started to diminish on the global scale
One of the greatest sources of uncertainty for future climate predictions is the response of the global carbon cycle to climate change
1
. Although approximately one-half of total CO
2
emissions is at present taken up by combined land and ocean carbon reservoirs
2
, models predict a decline in future carbon uptake by these reservoirs, resulting in a positive carbon–climate feedback
3
. Several recent studies suggest that rates of carbon uptake by the land
4
,
5
,
6
and ocean
7
,
8
,
9
,
10
have remained constant or declined in recent decades. Other work, however, has called into question the reported decline
11
,
12
,
13
. Here we use global-scale atmospheric CO
2
measurements, CO
2
emission inventories and their full range of uncertainties to calculate changes in global CO
2
sources and sinks during the past 50 years. Our mass balance analysis shows that net global carbon uptake has increased significantly by about 0.05 billion tonnes of carbon per year and that global carbon uptake doubled, from 2.4 ± 0.8 to 5.0 ± 0.9 billion tonnes per year, between 1960 and 2010. Therefore, it is very unlikely that both land and ocean carbon sinks have decreased on a global scale. Since 1959, approximately 350 billion tonnes of carbon have been emitted by humans to the atmosphere, of which about 55 per cent has moved into the land and oceans. Thus, identifying the mechanisms and locations responsible for increasing global carbon uptake remains a critical challenge in constraining the modern global carbon budget and predicting future carbon–climate interactions. |
|---|---|
| AbstractList | One of the greatest sources of uncertainty for future climate predictions is the response of the global carbon cycle to climate change1. Although approximately one-half of totalCO2emissions is at present taken up by combined land and ocean carbon reservoirs2, models predict a decline in future carbon uptake by these reservoirs, resulting in a positive carbon-climate feedback3. Several recent studies suggest that rates of carbon uptake by the land4-6 and ocean7-10 have remained constant or declined in recent decades. Other work, however, has called into question the reporteddecline11-13.Hereweuseglobal-scale atmosphericCO2measurements,CO2 emission inventories and their full range of uncertainties to calculate changes in global CO2 sources and sinks during the past 50 years. Our mass balance analysis shows that net global carbon uptake has increased significantly by about 0.05 billion tonnes of carbon per year and that global carbon uptake doubled, from 2.460.8 to 5.060.9 billion tonnes per year, between 1960 and 2010. Therefore, it is very unlikely that both land and ocean carbon sinks have decreased on a global scale. Since 1959, approximately 350 billion tonnes of carbon have been emitted by humans to the atmosphere, of which about 55 per cent has moved into the land and oceans. Thus, identifying the mechanisms and locations responsible for increasing global carbon uptake remains a critical challenge in constraining the modern global carbon budget and predicting future carbon-climate interactions. [PUBLICATION ABSTRACT] One of the greatest sources of uncertainty for future climate predictions is the response of the global carbon cycle to climate change. Although approximately one-half of total CO sub(2) emissions is at present taken up by combined land and ocean carbon reservoirs, models predict a decline in future carbon uptake by these reservoirs, resulting in a positive carbon-climate feedback. Several recent studies suggest that rates of carbon uptake by the land and ocean have remained constant or declined in recent decades. Other work, however, has called into question the reported decline. Here we use global-scale atmospheric CO sub(2) measurements, CO sub(2) emission inventories and their full range of uncertainties to calculate changes in global CO sub(2) sources and sinks during the past 50 years. Our mass balance analysis shows that net global carbon uptake has increased significantly by about 0.05 billion tonnes of carbon per year and that global carbon uptake doubled, from 2.4 plus or minus 0.8 to 5.0 plus or minus 0.9 billion tonnes per year, between 1960 and 2010. Therefore, it is very unlikely that both land and ocean carbon sinks have decreased on a global scale. Since 1959, approximately 350 billion tonnes of carbon have been emitted by humans to the atmosphere, of which about 55 per cent has moved into the land and oceans. Thus, identifying the mechanisms and locations responsible for increasing global carbon uptake remains a critical challenge in constraining the modern global carbon budget and predicting future carbon-climate interactions. One of the greatest sources of uncertainty for future climate predictions is the response of the global carbon cycle to climate change. Although approximately one-half of total CO(2) emissions is at present taken up by combined land and ocean carbon reservoirs, models predict a decline in future carbon uptake by these reservoirs, resulting in a positive carbon-climate feedback. Several recent studies suggest that rates of carbon uptake by the land and ocean have remained constant or declined in recent decades. Other work, however, has called into question the reported decline. Here we use global-scale atmospheric CO(2) measurements, CO(2) emission inventories and their full range of uncertainties to calculate changes in global CO(2) sources and sinks during the past 50 years. Our mass balance analysis shows that net global carbon uptake has increased significantly by about 0.05 billion tonnes of carbon per year and that global carbon uptake doubled, from 2.4 ± 0.8 to 5.0 ± 0.9 billion tonnes per year, between 1960 and 2010. Therefore, it is very unlikely that both land and ocean carbon sinks have decreased on a global scale. Since 1959, approximately 350 billion tonnes of carbon have been emitted by humans to the atmosphere, of which about 55 per cent has moved into the land and oceans. Thus, identifying the mechanisms and locations responsible for increasing global carbon uptake remains a critical challenge in constraining the modern global carbon budget and predicting future carbon-climate interactions.One of the greatest sources of uncertainty for future climate predictions is the response of the global carbon cycle to climate change. Although approximately one-half of total CO(2) emissions is at present taken up by combined land and ocean carbon reservoirs, models predict a decline in future carbon uptake by these reservoirs, resulting in a positive carbon-climate feedback. Several recent studies suggest that rates of carbon uptake by the land and ocean have remained constant or declined in recent decades. Other work, however, has called into question the reported decline. Here we use global-scale atmospheric CO(2) measurements, CO(2) emission inventories and their full range of uncertainties to calculate changes in global CO(2) sources and sinks during the past 50 years. Our mass balance analysis shows that net global carbon uptake has increased significantly by about 0.05 billion tonnes of carbon per year and that global carbon uptake doubled, from 2.4 ± 0.8 to 5.0 ± 0.9 billion tonnes per year, between 1960 and 2010. Therefore, it is very unlikely that both land and ocean carbon sinks have decreased on a global scale. Since 1959, approximately 350 billion tonnes of carbon have been emitted by humans to the atmosphere, of which about 55 per cent has moved into the land and oceans. Thus, identifying the mechanisms and locations responsible for increasing global carbon uptake remains a critical challenge in constraining the modern global carbon budget and predicting future carbon-climate interactions. One of the greatest sources of uncertainty for future climate predictions is the response of the global carbon cycle to climate change. Although approximately one-half of total CO(2) emissions is at present taken up by combined land and ocean carbon reservoirs, models predict a decline in future carbon uptake by these reservoirs, resulting in a positive carbon-climate feedback. Several recent studies suggest that rates of carbon uptake by the land and ocean have remained constant or declined in recent decades. Other work, however, has called into question the reported decline. Here we use global-scale atmospheric CO(2) measurements, CO(2) emission inventories and their full range of uncertainties to calculate changes in global CO(2) sources and sinks during the past 50 years. Our mass balance analysis shows that net global carbon uptake has increased significantly by about 0.05 billion tonnes of carbon per year and that global carbon uptake doubled, from 2.4 ± 0.8 to 5.0 ± 0.9 billion tonnes per year, between 1960 and 2010. Therefore, it is very unlikely that both land and ocean carbon sinks have decreased on a global scale. Since 1959, approximately 350 billion tonnes of carbon have been emitted by humans to the atmosphere, of which about 55 per cent has moved into the land and oceans. Thus, identifying the mechanisms and locations responsible for increasing global carbon uptake remains a critical challenge in constraining the modern global carbon budget and predicting future carbon-climate interactions. A comprehensive carbon dioxide mass balance analysis shows that net global carbon uptake has increased by about 0.05 billion tonnes per year over the past 50 years and that in that time the global carbon uptake has almost doubled, making it unlikely that land and ocean carbon sinks have decreased on a global scale. Carbon sinks hold firm The current state of land and ocean carbon sinks has been the subject of intense debate, because it has implications for how the carbon cycle might respond to climate change. About half of the current carbon dioxide emissions are taken up by land and ocean carbon sinks. Model studies predict a decline in future carbon sinks, resulting in a positive carbon-climate feedback, and several recent studies have suggested that land and ocean carbon sinks are beginning to wane. These authors use a global mass balance approach to audit the global carbon cycle, focusing on well-constrained observations of atmospheric carbon dioxide and estimates of anthropogenic emissions and a rigorous analysis of uncertainties. They find that carbon sinks have actually doubled during the past 50 years and continue to increase significantly. There were no signs, as of 2010, that carbon uptake has started to diminish on the global scale One of the greatest sources of uncertainty for future climate predictions is the response of the global carbon cycle to climate change 1 . Although approximately one-half of total CO 2 emissions is at present taken up by combined land and ocean carbon reservoirs 2 , models predict a decline in future carbon uptake by these reservoirs, resulting in a positive carbon–climate feedback 3 . Several recent studies suggest that rates of carbon uptake by the land 4 , 5 , 6 and ocean 7 , 8 , 9 , 10 have remained constant or declined in recent decades. Other work, however, has called into question the reported decline 11 , 12 , 13 . Here we use global-scale atmospheric CO 2 measurements, CO 2 emission inventories and their full range of uncertainties to calculate changes in global CO 2 sources and sinks during the past 50 years. Our mass balance analysis shows that net global carbon uptake has increased significantly by about 0.05 billion tonnes of carbon per year and that global carbon uptake doubled, from 2.4 ± 0.8 to 5.0 ± 0.9 billion tonnes per year, between 1960 and 2010. Therefore, it is very unlikely that both land and ocean carbon sinks have decreased on a global scale. Since 1959, approximately 350 billion tonnes of carbon have been emitted by humans to the atmosphere, of which about 55 per cent has moved into the land and oceans. Thus, identifying the mechanisms and locations responsible for increasing global carbon uptake remains a critical challenge in constraining the modern global carbon budget and predicting future carbon–climate interactions. |
| Audience | Academic |
| Author | Alden, C. B. White, J. W. C. Miller, J. B. Ballantyne, A. P. Tans, P. P. |
| Author_xml | – sequence: 1 givenname: A. P. surname: Ballantyne fullname: Ballantyne, A. P. email: apballantyne@gmail.com organization: Department of Geology, University of Colorado, Present address: Department of Ecosystem and Conservation Sciences, University of Montana, Missoula, Montana 59812, USA – sequence: 2 givenname: C. B. surname: Alden fullname: Alden, C. B. organization: Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado – sequence: 3 givenname: J. B. surname: Miller fullname: Miller, J. B. organization: Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Earth System Research Laboratory, National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration – sequence: 4 givenname: P. P. surname: Tans fullname: Tans, P. P. organization: Earth System Research Laboratory, National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration – sequence: 5 givenname: J. W. C. surname: White fullname: White, J. W. C. organization: Department of Geology, University of Colorado, Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado |
| BackLink | http://pascal-francis.inist.fr/vibad/index.php?action=getRecordDetail&idt=26201452$$DView record in Pascal Francis https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22859203$$D View this record in MEDLINE/PubMed |
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| Keywords | 1970-1980 time series analysis trend-surface analysis mass balance Carbon dioxide climate warming 1960-1970 Source sink relationship Carbon sequestration greenhouse gas Carbon sinks 1990-2000 global change 2000-2010 1980-1990 climate change |
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| References | StockerBStrassmannKJoosFSensitivity of Holocene atmospheric CO2Biogeosciences2011792195210.5194/bgd-7-921-2010 SchusterUWatsonAJA variable and decreasing sink for atmospheric CO2 in the North AtlanticJ. Geophys. Res.2007112C110062007JGRC..11211006S10.1029/2006JC003941 PanYA large and persistent carbon sink in the world’s forestsScience20113339889932011Sci...333..988P1:CAS:528:DC%2BC3MXhtVWrtr%2FE10.1126/science.1201609 KnorrWIs the airborne fraction of anthropogenic CO2 emissions increasing?Geophys. Res. Lett.200936L217102009GeoRL..3621710K10.1029/2009GL040613 GriffithDWTKeelingCDAdamsJAGuentherPRBacastowRBCalculations of carrier gas effects in non-dispersive infrared analyzers. II. Comparisons with experimentTellus1982343853971982Tell...34..385G1:CAS:528:DyaL38Xlslequ7g%3D ZhaoMRunningSWDrought-induced reduction in global terrestrial net primary production from 2000 through 2009Science20103299409432010Sci...329..940Z1:CAS:528:DC%2BC3cXhtVaqur%2FE10.1126/science.1192666 FriedlingsteinPUpdate on CO2 emissionsNature Geosci.201038118122010NatGe...3..811F1:CAS:528:DC%2BC3cXhsVyhs7bP10.1038/ngeo1022 SchimelDSRecent patterns and mechanisms of carbon exchange by terrestrial ecosystemsNature20014141691722001Natur.414..169S1:CAS:528:DC%2BD3MXosFaisLo%3D10.1038/35102500 BP. Statistical Review of World Energyhttp://www.bp.com/sectionbodycopy.do?categoryId = 7500&contentId = 7068481 (2011) MasarieKATansPPExtension and integration of atmospheric carbon dioxide data into a globally consistent measurement recordJ. Geophys. Res.199510011593116101995JGR...10011593M1:CAS:528:DyaK2MXotlWjs74%3D10.1029/95JD00859 Meehl, G. A. et al. in Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis (eds Solomon, S. et al.) 792–802 (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2007) SarmientoJLTrends and regional distributions of land and ocean carbon sinksBiogeosciences20107235123672010BGeo....7.2351S1:CAS:528:DC%2BC3MXit1ens7Y%3D10.5194/bg-7-2351-2010 KeelingCDA three dimensional model of atmospheric CO2 transport based on observed winds: 1. Analysis of observational dataGeophys. Monogr.198955165236 YangXRichardsonTKJainAKContributions of secondary forest and nitrogen dynamics to terrestrial carbon uptakeBiogeosciences20107304130502010BGeo....7.3041Y1:CAS:528:DC%2BC3cXhsF2ru7fM10.5194/bg-7-3041-2010 McKinleyGAFayARTakahashiTMetzlNConvergence of atmospheric and North Atlantic carbon dioxide trends on multidecadal timescalesNature Geosci.201146066102011NatGe...4..606M1:CAS:528:DC%2BC3MXhtFSmtLjN10.1038/ngeo1193 Le QuéréCSaturation of the Southern Ocean CO2 sink due to recent climate changeScience2007316173517382007Sci...316.1735L10.1126/science.1136188 HoughtonRARevised estimates of the annual net flux of carbon to the atmosphere from changes in land use and land management 1850–2000Tellus B2003553783902003TellB..55..378H CanadellJGContributions to accelerating atmospheric CO2 growth from economic activity, carbon intensity, and efficiency of natural sinksProc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA200710418866188702007PNAS..10418866C1:CAS:528:DC%2BD2sXhtl2ks7%2FO10.1073/pnas.0702737104 GloorMSarmientoJLGruberNWhat can be learned about carbon cycle climate feedbacks from the CO2 airborne fraction?Atmos. Chem. Phys.201010773977512010ACP....10.7739G1:CAS:528:DC%2BC3cXhtlWls7jP10.5194/acp-10-7739-2010 MarlandGHamalKJonasMHow uncertain are estimates of CO2 emissions?J. Ind. Ecol.2009134710.1111/j.1530-9290.2009.00108.x Le QuéréCTakahashiTBuitenhuisETRödenbeckCSutherlandSCImpact of climate change and variability on the global oceanic sink of CO2Glob. Biogeochem. Cycles201024GB40072010GBioC..24.4007L10.1029/2009GB003599 Le QuéréCTrends in the sources and sinks of carbon dioxideNature Geosci.200928318362009NatGe...2..831L10.1038/ngeo689 European Commission. Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR). 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Res.200110610257102742001JGR...10610257A1:CAS:528:DC%2BD3MXks1Kkt7s%3D10.1029/2000JD900703 Y Pan (BFnature11299_CR4) 2011; 333 JG Canadell (BFnature11299_CR21) 2007; 104 CD Keeling (BFnature11299_CR24) 1989; 55 M Zhao (BFnature11299_CR6) 2010; 329 RA Houghton (BFnature11299_CR27) 2003; 55 KA Masarie (BFnature11299_CR23) 1995; 100 S Piao (BFnature11299_CR5) 2008; 451 W Knorr (BFnature11299_CR12) 2009; 36 G Marland (BFnature11299_CR20) 2009; 13 GA McKinley (BFnature11299_CR7) 2011; 4 C Le Quéré (BFnature11299_CR22) 2009; 2 BFnature11299_CR1 DS Schimel (BFnature11299_CR2) 2001; 414 U Schuster (BFnature11299_CR9) 2007; 112 C Le Quéré (BFnature11299_CR8) 2007; 316 AE Andrews (BFnature11299_CR26) 2001; 106 M Gloor (BFnature11299_CR13) 2010; 10 X Yang (BFnature11299_CR19) 2010; 7 BFnature11299_CR15 BFnature11299_CR14 JL Sarmiento (BFnature11299_CR11) 2010; 7 BFnature11299_CR16 P Friedlingstein (BFnature11299_CR17) 2010; 3 C Le Quéré (BFnature11299_CR10) 2010; 24 P Friedlingstein (BFnature11299_CR3) 2006; 19 B Stocker (BFnature11299_CR18) 2011; 7 DWT Griffith (BFnature11299_CR25) 1982; 34 17510327 - Science. 2007 Jun 22;316(5832):1735-8 17962418 - Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2007 Nov 20;104(47):18866-70 11700548 - Nature. 2001 Nov 8;414(6860):169-72 21764754 - Science. 2011 Aug 19;333(6045):988-93 20724633 - Science. 2010 Aug 20;329(5994):940-3 18172494 - Nature. 2008 Jan 3;451(7174):49-52 22859196 - Nature. 2012 Aug 2;488(7409):35-6 |
| References_xml | – reference: PanYA large and persistent carbon sink in the world’s forestsScience20113339889932011Sci...333..988P1:CAS:528:DC%2BC3MXhtVWrtr%2FE10.1126/science.1201609 – reference: AndrewsAEEmpirical age spectra for the midlatitude lower stratosphere from in situ observations of CO2: quantitative evidence for a subtropical barrier to horizontal transportJ. Geophys. Res.200110610257102742001JGR...10610257A1:CAS:528:DC%2BD3MXks1Kkt7s%3D10.1029/2000JD900703 – reference: PiaoSNet carbon dioxide losses of northern ecosystems in response to autumn warmingNature200845149522008Natur.451...49P1:CAS:528:DC%2BD1cXhtlSksw%3D%3D10.1038/nature06444 – reference: GloorMSarmientoJLGruberNWhat can be learned about carbon cycle climate feedbacks from the CO2 airborne fraction?Atmos. Chem. Phys.201010773977512010ACP....10.7739G1:CAS:528:DC%2BC3cXhtlWls7jP10.5194/acp-10-7739-2010 – reference: ZhaoMRunningSWDrought-induced reduction in global terrestrial net primary production from 2000 through 2009Science20103299409432010Sci...329..940Z1:CAS:528:DC%2BC3cXhtVaqur%2FE10.1126/science.1192666 – reference: McKinleyGAFayARTakahashiTMetzlNConvergence of atmospheric and North Atlantic carbon dioxide trends on multidecadal timescalesNature Geosci.201146066102011NatGe...4..606M1:CAS:528:DC%2BC3MXhtFSmtLjN10.1038/ngeo1193 – reference: Le QuéréCTrends in the sources and sinks of carbon dioxideNature Geosci.200928318362009NatGe...2..831L10.1038/ngeo689 – reference: SchusterUWatsonAJA variable and decreasing sink for atmospheric CO2 in the North AtlanticJ. Geophys. Res.2007112C110062007JGRC..11211006S10.1029/2006JC003941 – reference: MasarieKATansPPExtension and integration of atmospheric carbon dioxide data into a globally consistent measurement recordJ. Geophys. Res.199510011593116101995JGR...10011593M1:CAS:528:DyaK2MXotlWjs74%3D10.1029/95JD00859 – reference: GriffithDWTKeelingCDAdamsJAGuentherPRBacastowRBCalculations of carrier gas effects in non-dispersive infrared analyzers. II. Comparisons with experimentTellus1982343853971982Tell...34..385G1:CAS:528:DyaL38Xlslequ7g%3D – reference: FriedlingsteinPUpdate on CO2 emissionsNature Geosci.201038118122010NatGe...3..811F1:CAS:528:DC%2BC3cXhsVyhs7bP10.1038/ngeo1022 – reference: CanadellJGContributions to accelerating atmospheric CO2 growth from economic activity, carbon intensity, and efficiency of natural sinksProc. Natl Acad. Sci. 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Europa - EDGAR Overviewhttp://edgar.jrc.ec.europa.eu/overview.php?v = 40 (2009) – reference: MarlandGHamalKJonasMHow uncertain are estimates of CO2 emissions?J. Ind. Ecol.2009134710.1111/j.1530-9290.2009.00108.x – reference: SchimelDSRecent patterns and mechanisms of carbon exchange by terrestrial ecosystemsNature20014141691722001Natur.414..169S1:CAS:528:DC%2BD3MXosFaisLo%3D10.1038/35102500 – reference: Meehl, G. A. et al. in Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis (eds Solomon, S. et al.) 792–802 (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2007) – reference: KeelingCDA three dimensional model of atmospheric CO2 transport based on observed winds: 1. Analysis of observational dataGeophys. 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| Snippet | A comprehensive carbon dioxide mass balance analysis shows that net global carbon uptake has increased by about 0.05 billion tonnes per year over the past 50... One of the greatest sources of uncertainty for future climate predictions is the response of the global carbon cycle to climate change. Although approximately... One of the greatest sources of uncertainty for future climate predictions is the response of the global carbon cycle to climate change1. Although approximately... |
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| SubjectTerms | 704/106/694 704/172/169 Atmosphere Atmosphere - chemistry Budgets Carbon - analysis Carbon cycle Carbon cycle (Biogeochemistry) Carbon dioxide Carbon Dioxide - analysis Carbon Dioxide - history Carbon dioxide emissions Carbon Sequestration Carbon sinks Climate change Climate Change - statistics & numerical data Climate prediction Climatic changes Climatology. Bioclimatology. Climate change Earth, ocean, space Emission inventories Emissions Environmental aspects Estimates Exact sciences and technology External geophysics Growth rate History, 20th Century History, 21st Century Human Activities Humanities and Social Sciences Industrialized nations Land use letter Meteorology Models, Theoretical multidisciplinary Oceans Oceans and Seas Reservoirs Science Science (multidisciplinary) Seawater - chemistry Studies Time Factors Trends Uncertainty |
| Title | Increase in observed net carbon dioxide uptake by land and oceans during the past 50 years |
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