Inference of person-to-person transmission of COVID-19 reveals hidden super-spreading events during the early outbreak phase

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was first identified in late 2019 in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China and spread globally in months, sparking worldwide concern. However, it is unclear whether super-spreading events occurred during the early outbreak phase, as has been observed for other emerging vir...

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Published inNature communications Vol. 11; no. 1; pp. 5006 - 6
Main Authors Wang, Liang, Didelot, Xavier, Yang, Jing, Wong, Gary, Shi, Yi, Liu, Wenjun, Gao, George F., Bi, Yuhai
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published London Nature Publishing Group UK 06.10.2020
Nature Portfolio
Subjects
45
631/208/212/2306
631/326/596/4130
692/308/174
692/699/255/2514
Bayes Theorem
Betacoronavirus - classification
Betacoronavirus - genetics
China - epidemiology
Coronavirus Infections - epidemiology
Coronavirus Infections - transmission
Coronavirus Infections - virology
COVID-19
Disease Outbreaks
Humanities and Social Sciences
Humans
multidisciplinary
Pandemics
Phylogeny
Pneumonia, Viral - epidemiology
Pneumonia, Viral - transmission
Pneumonia, Viral - virology
SARS-CoV-2
Science
Science (multidisciplinary)
China
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Abstract Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was first identified in late 2019 in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China and spread globally in months, sparking worldwide concern. However, it is unclear whether super-spreading events occurred during the early outbreak phase, as has been observed for other emerging viruses. Here, we analyse 208 publicly available SARS-CoV-2 genome sequences collected during the early outbreak phase. We combine phylogenetic analysis with Bayesian inference under an epidemiological model to trace person-to-person transmission. The dispersion parameter of the offspring distribution in the inferred transmission chain was estimated to be 0.23 (95% CI: 0.13–0.38), indicating there are individuals who directly infected a disproportionately large number of people. Our results showed that super-spreading events played an important role in the early stage of the COVID-19 outbreak. Although SARS-CoV-2 has spread rapidly, the contribution of super-spreading events to transmission is unclear. Here, the authors show that the number of secondary infections arising from an individual infection in the early phase of the outbreak was highly skewed, indicating that super-spreading events occurred.
AbstractList Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was first identified in late 2019 in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China and spread globally in months, sparking worldwide concern. However, it is unclear whether super-spreading events occurred during the early outbreak phase, as has been observed for other emerging viruses. Here, we analyse 208 publicly available SARS-CoV-2 genome sequences collected during the early outbreak phase. We combine phylogenetic analysis with Bayesian inference under an epidemiological model to trace person-to-person transmission. The dispersion parameter of the offspring distribution in the inferred transmission chain was estimated to be 0.23 (95% CI: 0.13–0.38), indicating there are individuals who directly infected a disproportionately large number of people. Our results showed that super-spreading events played an important role in the early stage of the COVID-19 outbreak.
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was first identified in late 2019 in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China and spread globally in months, sparking worldwide concern. However, it is unclear whether super-spreading events occurred during the early outbreak phase, as has been observed for other emerging viruses. Here, we analyse 208 publicly available SARS-CoV-2 genome sequences collected during the early outbreak phase. We combine phylogenetic analysis with Bayesian inference under an epidemiological model to trace person-to-person transmission. The dispersion parameter of the offspring distribution in the inferred transmission chain was estimated to be 0.23 (95% CI: 0.13–0.38), indicating there are individuals who directly infected a disproportionately large number of people. Our results showed that super-spreading events played an important role in the early stage of the COVID-19 outbreak. Although SARS-CoV-2 has spread rapidly, the contribution of super-spreading events to transmission is unclear. Here, the authors show that the number of secondary infections arising from an individual infection in the early phase of the outbreak was highly skewed, indicating that super-spreading events occurred.
Although SARS-CoV-2 has spread rapidly, the contribution of super-spreading events to transmission is unclear. Here, the authors show that the number of secondary infections arising from an individual infection in the early phase of the outbreak was highly skewed, indicating that super-spreading events occurred.
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was first identified in late 2019 in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China and spread globally in months, sparking worldwide concern. However, it is unclear whether super-spreading events occurred during the early outbreak phase, as has been observed for other emerging viruses. Here, we analyse 208 publicly available SARS-CoV-2 genome sequences collected during the early outbreak phase. We combine phylogenetic analysis with Bayesian inference under an epidemiological model to trace person-to-person transmission. The dispersion parameter of the offspring distribution in the inferred transmission chain was estimated to be 0.23 (95% CI: 0.13-0.38), indicating there are individuals who directly infected a disproportionately large number of people. Our results showed that super-spreading events played an important role in the early stage of the COVID-19 outbreak.Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was first identified in late 2019 in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China and spread globally in months, sparking worldwide concern. However, it is unclear whether super-spreading events occurred during the early outbreak phase, as has been observed for other emerging viruses. Here, we analyse 208 publicly available SARS-CoV-2 genome sequences collected during the early outbreak phase. We combine phylogenetic analysis with Bayesian inference under an epidemiological model to trace person-to-person transmission. The dispersion parameter of the offspring distribution in the inferred transmission chain was estimated to be 0.23 (95% CI: 0.13-0.38), indicating there are individuals who directly infected a disproportionately large number of people. Our results showed that super-spreading events played an important role in the early stage of the COVID-19 outbreak.
ArticleNumber 5006
Author Shi, Yi
Liu, Wenjun
Gao, George F.
Bi, Yuhai
Didelot, Xavier
Wong, Gary
Yang, Jing
Wang, Liang
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Snippet Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was first identified in late 2019 in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China and spread globally in months, sparking worldwide...
Although SARS-CoV-2 has spread rapidly, the contribution of super-spreading events to transmission is unclear. Here, the authors show that the number of...
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pubmed
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springer
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StartPage 5006
SubjectTerms 45
631/208/212/2306
631/326/596/4130
692/308/174
692/699/255/2514
Bayes Theorem
Betacoronavirus - classification
Betacoronavirus - genetics
China - epidemiology
Coronavirus Infections - epidemiology
Coronavirus Infections - transmission
Coronavirus Infections - virology
COVID-19
Disease Outbreaks
Humanities and Social Sciences
Humans
multidisciplinary
Pandemics
Phylogeny
Pneumonia, Viral - epidemiology
Pneumonia, Viral - transmission
Pneumonia, Viral - virology
SARS-CoV-2
Science
Science (multidisciplinary)
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Title Inference of person-to-person transmission of COVID-19 reveals hidden super-spreading events during the early outbreak phase
URI https://link.springer.com/article/10.1038/s41467-020-18836-4
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33024095
https://www.proquest.com/docview/2449177143
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/PMC7538999
https://doaj.org/article/fee38609a8e44252a1203cb59b256742
Volume 11
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