Benefits of subsidence control for coastal flooding in China

Land subsidence is impacting large populations in coastal Asia via relative sea-level rise (RSLR). Here we assesses these risks and possible response strategies for China, including estimates of present rates of RSLR, flood exposure and risk to 2050. In 2015, each Chinese coastal resident experience...

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Published inNature communications Vol. 13; no. 1; pp. 6946 - 9
Main Authors Fang, Jiayi, Nicholls, Robert J., Brown, Sally, Lincke, Daniel, Hinkel, Jochen, Vafeidis, Athanasios T., Du, Shiqiang, Zhao, Qing, Liu, Min, Shi, Peijun
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published London Nature Publishing Group UK 14.11.2022
Nature Publishing Group
Nature Portfolio
Subjects
100 year floods
704/106/694/2739/2819
704/106/694/682
Acclimatization
Adaptation
China
Climate Change
Environmental Sciences
Exposure
Flooding
Floods
Humanities and Social Sciences
Humans
Land subsidence
multidisciplinary
Populations
Science
Science (multidisciplinary)
Sea level
Sea Level Rise
Subsidence
China
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Abstract Land subsidence is impacting large populations in coastal Asia via relative sea-level rise (RSLR). Here we assesses these risks and possible response strategies for China, including estimates of present rates of RSLR, flood exposure and risk to 2050. In 2015, each Chinese coastal resident experienced on average RSLR of 11 to 20 mm/yr. This is 3 to 5 times higher than climate-induced SLR, reflecting that people are concentrated in subsiding locations. In 2050, assuming these subsidence rates continue, land area, population and assets exposed to the 100-year coastal flood event is 20%-39%, 17%-37% and 18%-39% higher than assuming climate change alone, respectively. Realistic subsidence control measures can avoid up to two thirds of this additional growth in exposure, with adaptation required to address the residual. This analysis emphasizes subsidence as a RSLR hazard in China that requires a broad-scale policy response, utilizing subsidence control combined with coastal adaptation. Chinese coastal populations are concentrated in subsiding locations, and also subject to sea-level rise. Here the authors find that more areas, population and assets are exposed to coastal flooding by 2050 but realistic subsidence control measures can avoid additional risks.
AbstractList Land subsidence is impacting large populations in coastal Asia via relative sea-level rise (RSLR). Here we assesses these risks and possible response strategies for China, including estimates of present rates of RSLR, flood exposure and risk to 2050. In 2015, each Chinese coastal resident experienced on average RSLR of 11 to 20 mm/yr. This is 3 to 5 times higher than climate-induced SLR, reflecting that people are concentrated in subsiding locations. In 2050, assuming these subsidence rates continue, land area, population and assets exposed to the 100-year coastal flood event is 20%-39%, 17%-37% and 18%-39% higher than assuming climate change alone, respectively. Realistic subsidence control measures can avoid up to two thirds of this additional growth in exposure, with adaptation required to address the residual. This analysis emphasizes subsidence as a RSLR hazard in China that requires a broad-scale policy response, utilizing subsidence control combined with coastal adaptation.
Land subsidence is impacting large populations in coastal Asia via relative sea-level rise (RSLR). Here we assesses these risks and possible response strategies for China, including estimates of present rates of RSLR, flood exposure and risk to 2050. In 2015, each Chinese coastal resident experienced on average RSLR of 11 to 20 mm/yr. This is 3 to 5 times higher than climate-induced SLR, reflecting that people are concentrated in subsiding locations. In 2050, assuming these subsidence rates continue, land area, population and assets exposed to the 100-year coastal flood event is 20%-39%, 17%-37% and 18%-39% higher than assuming climate change alone, respectively. Realistic subsidence control measures can avoid up to two thirds of this additional growth in exposure, with adaptation required to address the residual. This analysis emphasizes subsidence as a RSLR hazard in China that requires a broad-scale policy response, utilizing subsidence control combined with coastal adaptation. Chinese coastal populations are concentrated in subsiding locations, and also subject to sea-level rise. Here the authors find that more areas, population and assets are exposed to coastal flooding by 2050 but realistic subsidence control measures can avoid additional risks.
Chinese coastal populations are concentrated in subsiding locations, and also subject to sea-level rise. Here the authors find that more areas, population and assets are exposed to coastal flooding by 2050 but realistic subsidence control measures can avoid additional risks.
Land subsidence is impacting large populations in coastal Asia via relative sea-level rise (RSLR). Here we assesses these risks and possible response strategies for China, including estimates of present rates of RSLR, flood exposure and risk to 2050. In 2015, each Chinese coastal resident experienced on average RSLR of 11 to 20 mm/yr. This is 3 to 5 times higher than climate-induced SLR, reflecting that people are concentrated in subsiding locations. In 2050, assuming these subsidence rates continue, land area, population and assets exposed to the 100-year coastal flood event is 20%-39%, 17%-37% and 18%-39% higher than assuming climate change alone, respectively. Realistic subsidence control measures can avoid up to two thirds of this additional growth in exposure, with adaptation required to address the residual. This analysis emphasizes subsidence as a RSLR hazard in China that requires a broad-scale policy response, utilizing subsidence control combined with coastal adaptation.Land subsidence is impacting large populations in coastal Asia via relative sea-level rise (RSLR). Here we assesses these risks and possible response strategies for China, including estimates of present rates of RSLR, flood exposure and risk to 2050. In 2015, each Chinese coastal resident experienced on average RSLR of 11 to 20 mm/yr. This is 3 to 5 times higher than climate-induced SLR, reflecting that people are concentrated in subsiding locations. In 2050, assuming these subsidence rates continue, land area, population and assets exposed to the 100-year coastal flood event is 20%-39%, 17%-37% and 18%-39% higher than assuming climate change alone, respectively. Realistic subsidence control measures can avoid up to two thirds of this additional growth in exposure, with adaptation required to address the residual. This analysis emphasizes subsidence as a RSLR hazard in China that requires a broad-scale policy response, utilizing subsidence control combined with coastal adaptation.
Land subsidence is impacting large populations in coastal Asia via relative sea-level rise (RSLR). Here we assesses these risks and possible response strategies for China, including estimates of present rates of RSLR, flood exposure and risk to 2050. In 2015, each Chinese coastal resident experienced on average RSLR of 11 to 20 mm/yr. This is 3 to 5 times higher than climate-induced SLR, reflecting that people are concentrated in subsiding locations. In 2050, assuming these subsidence rates continue, land area, population and assets exposed to the 100-year coastal flood event is 20%-39%, 17%-37% and 18%-39% higher than assuming climate change alone, respectively. Realistic subsidence control measures can avoid up to two thirds of this additional growth in exposure, with adaptation required to address the residual. This analysis emphasizes subsidence as a RSLR hazard in China that requires a broad-scale policy response, utilizing subsidence control combined with coastal adaptation.Chinese coastal populations are concentrated in subsiding locations, and also subject to sea-level rise. Here the authors find that more areas, population and assets are exposed to coastal flooding by 2050 but realistic subsidence control measures can avoid additional risks.
ArticleNumber 6946
Author Du, Shiqiang
Zhao, Qing
Lincke, Daniel
Hinkel, Jochen
Fang, Jiayi
Nicholls, Robert J.
Brown, Sally
Vafeidis, Athanasios T.
Shi, Peijun
Liu, Min
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  organization: Institute of Remote Sensing and Earth Sciences, Hangzhou Normal University, Zhejiang Provincial Key Laboratory of Urban Wetlands and Regional Change, Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Ministry of Emergency Management & Ministry of Education, School of Geographic Sciences, East China Normal University, School of Engineering, University of Southampton
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  email: spj@bnu.edu.cn
  organization: Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Ministry of Emergency Management & Ministry of Education, State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology (ESPRE), Beijing Normal University
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  year: 2022
  text: 2022-11-14
  day: 14
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PublicationTitle Nature communications
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ErkensGBucxTDamRde LangeGLambertJSinking coastal citiesProc. IAHS20153721891982015PIAHS.372..189E10.5194/piahs-372-189-2015
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Herrera-GarcíaGMapping the global threat of land subsidenceScience20213713436333843682021Sci...371...34H10.1126/science.abb8549
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GongSYangSEffect of land subsidence on urban flood prevention engineering in ShanghaiSci. Geographica Sin.20084543547
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ShirzaeiMMeasuring, modelling and projecting coastal land subsidenceNat. Rev. Earth Environ.2021240582021NRvEE...2...40S10.1038/s43017-020-00115-x
KokSCostaALFramework for economic cost assessment of land subsidenceNat. Hazards20211061931194910.1007/s11069-021-04520-3
WangJYiSLiMYWangLSongCCEffects of sea level rise, land subsidence, bathymetric change and typhoon tracks on storm flooding in the coastal areas of ShanghaiSci. Total Environ.20186212282341:CAS:528:DC%2BC2sXhvVygsLrE291790792018ScTEn.621..228W10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.11.224
SenguptaDChenRSMeadowsMEBanerjeeAGaining or losing ground? Tracking Asia’s hunger for ‘new’ coastal land in the era of sea level riseSci. Total Environ.20207321392901:CAS:528:DC%2BB3cXpsl2lsrY%3D324381742020ScTEn.732m9290S10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.139290
Fox-Kemper, B. et al. Ocean, cryosphere and sea level change. In Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (eds Masson-Delmotte. et al.) (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2021).
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DuSQHeCYHuangQXShiPJHow did the urban land in floodplains distribute and expand in China from 1992–2015?Environ. Res. Lett.2018130340182018ERL....13c4018D10.1088/1748-9326/aaac07
SyvitskiJPMSinking deltas due to human activitiesNat. Geosci.200926816861:CAS:528:DC%2BD1MXht1SqsrnM2009NatGe...2..681S10.1038/ngeo629
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KCSLutzWThe human core of the shared socioeconomic pathways: population scenarios by age, sex and level of education for all countries to 2100Glob. Environ. Chang20174218119210.1016/j.gloenvcha.2014.06.004
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YeSJXueYQWuJCYanXXYuJProgression and mitigation of land subsidence in ChinaHydrogeol. J.2016246856932016HydJ...24..685Y10.1007/s10040-015-1356-9
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WangWLiuHILiYQSuJLDevelopment and management of land reclamation in ChinaOcean
M Leimbach (34525_CR49) 2017; 42
JPM Syvitski (34525_CR52) 2009; 2
JY Fang (34525_CR26) 2020; 704
S Gong (34525_CR30) 2008; 4
DL Galloway (34525_CR2) 2011; 19
G Herrera-García (34525_CR10) 2021; 371
CM Liu (34525_CR35) 2001; 26
M Schuerch (34525_CR44) 2018; 561
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S Kok (34525_CR34) 2021; 106
J Wang (34525_CR21) 2018; 621
RJ Nicholls (34525_CR3) 2021; 11
J Yin (34525_CR23) 2016; 544
G Erkens (34525_CR7) 2015; 372
WR Peltier (34525_CR55) 2015; 120
F Wang (34525_CR13) 2019; 2
YQ Fang (34525_CR32) 2018; 15
M Han (34525_CR16) 1995; 14
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A Cao (34525_CR6) 2021; 50
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J Hinkel (34525_CR28) 2014; 111
XC He (34525_CR25) 2019; 16
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SJ Ye (34525_CR17) 2016; 24
J Yin (34525_CR24) 2019; 571
AT Vafeidis (34525_CR42) 2008; 24
JL Liu (34525_CR15) 2015; 20
G McGranahan (34525_CR14) 2007; 19
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RL Hu (34525_CR11) 2004; 76
NZ Xu (34525_CR54) 2005; 20
W Wang (34525_CR40) 2014; 102
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F Cai (34525_CR53) 2009; 19
C Wolff (34525_CR29) 2016; 3
M Shirzaei (34525_CR5) 2021; 2
SQ Du (34525_CR31) 2018; 13
J Hinkel (34525_CR43) 2013; 111
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YQ Xue (34525_CR18) 2005; 48
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JP Ericson (34525_CR8) 2006; 50
S Muis (34525_CR56) 2016; 7
D Sengupta (34525_CR41) 2020; 732
J Wang (34525_CR20) 2012; 115
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J Yin (34525_CR22) 2013; 119
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P Han (34525_CR38) 2017; 36
JF Legeais (34525_CR46) 2018; 10
DP van Vuuren (34525_CR57) 2014; 122
34525_CR33
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– reference: Bright, E. A. et al. LandScan 2010 (Oak Ridge National Laboratory, 2011).
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– reference: HinkelJA global analysis of erosion of sandy beaches and sea-level rise: an application of DIVAGlob. Planet. Change20131111501582013GPC...111..150H10.1016/j.gloplacha.2013.09.002
– reference: CaiFCoastal erosion in China under the condition of global climate change and measures for its preventionProg. Natl Sci.20091941542610.1016/j.pnsc.2008.05.034
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– reference: WangFThe impact of sea-level rise on the coast of Tianjin-Hebei, ChinaChina Geol.20192263910.31035/cg2018061
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Snippet Land subsidence is impacting large populations in coastal Asia via relative sea-level rise (RSLR). Here we assesses these risks and possible response...
Chinese coastal populations are concentrated in subsiding locations, and also subject to sea-level rise. Here the authors find that more areas, population and...
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SubjectTerms 100 year floods
704/106/694/2739/2819
704/106/694/682
Acclimatization
Adaptation
China
Climate Change
Environmental Sciences
Exposure
Flooding
Floods
Humanities and Social Sciences
Humans
Land subsidence
multidisciplinary
Populations
Science
Science (multidisciplinary)
Sea level
Sea Level Rise
Subsidence
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Title Benefits of subsidence control for coastal flooding in China
URI https://link.springer.com/article/10.1038/s41467-022-34525-w
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36376281
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Volume 13
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