Role of soil moisture versus recent climate change for the 2010 heat wave in western Russia
The severe 2010 heat wave in western Russia was found to be influenced by anthropogenic climate change. Additionally, soil moisture‐temperature feedbacks were deemed important for the buildup of the exceptionally high temperatures. We quantify the relative role of both factors by applying the probab...
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| Published in | Geophysical research letters Vol. 43; no. 6; pp. 2819 - 2826 |
|---|---|
| Main Authors | , , |
| Format | Journal Article |
| Language | English |
| Published |
Washington
John Wiley & Sons, Inc
28.03.2016
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| Subjects | |
| Online Access | Get full text |
| ISSN | 0094-8276 1944-8007 |
| DOI | 10.1002/2016GL068036 |
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| Abstract | The severe 2010 heat wave in western Russia was found to be influenced by anthropogenic climate change. Additionally, soil moisture‐temperature feedbacks were deemed important for the buildup of the exceptionally high temperatures. We quantify the relative role of both factors by applying the probabilistic event attribution framework and analyze ensemble simulations to distinguish the effect of climate change and the 2010 soil moisture conditions for annual maximum temperatures. The dry 2010 soil moisture alone has increased the risk of a severe heat wave in western Russia sixfold, while climate change from 1960 to 2000 has approximately tripled it. The combined effect of climate change and 2010 soil moisture yields a 13 times higher heat wave risk. We conclude that internal climate variability causing the dry 2010 soil moisture conditions formed a necessary basis for the extreme heat wave.
Key Points
Soil moisture conditions of 2010 led to a sixfold heat wave risk increase in western Russia
Recent climate change has approximately tripled the heat wave risk
The soil moisture anomaly in 2010 would have been large even without anthropogenic climate change |
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| AbstractList | The severe 2010 heat wave in western Russia was found to be influenced by anthropogenic climate change. Additionally, soil moisture‐temperature feedbacks were deemed important for the buildup of the exceptionally high temperatures. We quantify the relative role of both factors by applying the probabilistic event attribution framework and analyze ensemble simulations to distinguish the effect of climate change and the 2010 soil moisture conditions for annual maximum temperatures. The dry 2010 soil moisture alone has increased the risk of a severe heat wave in western Russia sixfold, while climate change from 1960 to 2000 has approximately tripled it. The combined effect of climate change and 2010 soil moisture yields a 13 times higher heat wave risk. We conclude that internal climate variability causing the dry 2010 soil moisture conditions formed a necessary basis for the extreme heat wave.
Key Points
Soil moisture conditions of 2010 led to a sixfold heat wave risk increase in western Russia
Recent climate change has approximately tripled the heat wave risk
The soil moisture anomaly in 2010 would have been large even without anthropogenic climate change The severe 2010 heat wave in western Russia was found to be influenced by anthropogenic climate change. Additionally, soil moisture-temperature feedbacks were deemed important for the buildup of the exceptionally high temperatures. We quantify the relative role of both factors by applying the probabilistic event attribution framework and analyze ensemble simulations to distinguish the effect of climate change and the 2010 soil moisture conditions for annual maximum temperatures. The dry 2010 soil moisture alone has increased the risk of a severe heat wave in western Russia sixfold, while climate change from 1960 to 2000 has approximately tripled it. The combined effect of climate change and 2010 soil moisture yields a 13 times higher heat wave risk. We conclude that internal climate variability causing the dry 2010 soil moisture conditions formed a necessary basis for the extreme heat wave. The severe 2010 heat wave in western Russia was found to be influenced by anthropogenic climate change. Additionally, soil moisture-temperature feedbacks were deemed important for the buildup of the exceptionally high temperatures. We quantify the relative role of both factors by applying the probabilistic event attribution framework and analyze ensemble simulations to distinguish the effect of climate change and the 2010 soil moisture conditions for annual maximum temperatures. The dry 2010 soil moisture alone has increased the risk of a severe heat wave in western Russia sixfold, while climate change from 1960 to 2000 has approximately tripled it. The combined effect of climate change and 2010 soil moisture yields a 13 times higher heat wave risk. We conclude that internal climate variability causing the dry 2010 soil moisture conditions formed a necessary basis for the extreme heat wave. Key Points * Soil moisture conditions of 2010 led to a sixfold heat wave risk increase in western Russia * Recent climate change has approximately tripled the heat wave risk * The soil moisture anomaly in 2010 would have been large even without anthropogenic climate change The severe 2010 heat wave in western Russia was found to be influenced by anthropogenic climate change. Additionally, soil moisture‐temperature feedbacks were deemed important for the buildup of the exceptionally high temperatures. We quantify the relative role of both factors by applying the probabilistic event attribution framework and analyze ensemble simulations to distinguish the effect of climate change and the 2010 soil moisture conditions for annual maximum temperatures. The dry 2010 soil moisture alone has increased the risk of a severe heat wave in western Russia sixfold, while climate change from 1960 to 2000 has approximately tripled it. The combined effect of climate change and 2010 soil moisture yields a 13 times higher heat wave risk. We conclude that internal climate variability causing the dry 2010 soil moisture conditions formed a necessary basis for the extreme heat wave. Soil moisture conditions of 2010 led to a sixfold heat wave risk increase in western Russia Recent climate change has approximately tripled the heat wave risk The soil moisture anomaly in 2010 would have been large even without anthropogenic climate change |
| Author | Hauser, Mathias Seneviratne, Sonia I. Orth, René |
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| Snippet | The severe 2010 heat wave in western Russia was found to be influenced by anthropogenic climate change. Additionally, soil moisture‐temperature feedbacks were... The severe 2010 heat wave in western Russia was found to be influenced by anthropogenic climate change. Additionally, soil moisture-temperature feedbacks were... |
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| SubjectTerms | Anthropogenic climate changes Anthropogenic factors Climate Climate change Climate effects Climate variability Construction Drying event attribution Extreme heat Extreme high temperatures Frameworks Heat Heat waves High temperature Human influences Maximum temperatures Moisture Probabilistic methods Probability theory Risk Russia Russia 2010 Simulation Soil Soil conditions Soil moisture Soil temperature Soils Temperature Temperature effects Variability |
| Title | Role of soil moisture versus recent climate change for the 2010 heat wave in western Russia |
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