A Statistical Analysis of Wheat Price Fluctuations in England: 1685-1850
For some commodities and time periods, the analysis of price fluctuations must necessarily rely on the existence of price data alone. A theory applicable in such circumstances is outlined for commodities that are storable, traded in open markets and subject to net supply shocks which are heterogeneo...
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| Published in | Journal of agricultural economics Vol. 50; no. 3; pp. 564 - 588 |
|---|---|
| Main Authors | , |
| Format | Journal Article |
| Language | English |
| Published |
Oxford, UK
Blackwell Publishing Ltd
01.09.1999
Blackwell Wiley Blackwell Agricultural Economics Society |
| Series | Journal of Agricultural Economics |
| Subjects | |
| Online Access | Get full text |
| ISSN | 0021-857X 1477-9552 |
| DOI | 10.1111/j.1477-9552.1999.tb00899.x |
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| Abstract | For some commodities and time periods, the analysis of price fluctuations must necessarily rely on the existence of price data alone. A theory applicable in such circumstances is outlined for commodities that are storable, traded in open markets and subject to net supply shocks which are heterogeneously distributed across the months of the year. Market prices are predicted to vary autoregressively except at times when wheat stocks become negligible and observed market prices exceed threshold prices (which may themselves differ across months). The model is applied to a monthly time series of wheat prices for southern England from 1685 to 1850. The autoregressive parameter and the threshold prices are estimated, substantial empirical support being found for the models tested. Historical events from the late seventeenth century through to the continental wars in the late eighteenth and early nineteenth centuries are used to illustrate the mechanisms underlying the theory. |
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| AbstractList | For some commodities and time periods, the analysis of price fluctuations must necessarily rely on the existence of price data alone. A theory applicable in such circumstances is outlined for commodities that are storable, traded in open markets and subject to net supply shocks which are heterogeneously distributed across the months of the year. Market prices are predicted to vary autoregressively except at times when wheat stocks become negligible and observed market prices exceed threshold prices (which may themselves differ across months). The model is applied to a monthly time series of wheat prices for southern England from 1685 to 1850. The autoregressive parameter and the threshold prices are estimated, substantial empirical support being found for the models tested. Historical events from the late seventeenth century through to the continental wars in the late eighteenth and early nineteenth centuries are used to illustrate the mechanisms underlying the theory. |
| Author | Chambers, Marcus J. Bailey, Roy E. |
| Author_xml | – sequence: 1 givenname: Marcus J. surname: Chambers fullname: Chambers, Marcus J. – sequence: 2 givenname: Roy E. surname: Bailey fullname: Bailey, Roy E. |
| BackLink | http://www.econis.eu/PPNSET?PPN=304708496$$DView this record in ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften http://econpapers.repec.org/article/blajageco/v_3a50_3ay_3a1999_3ai_3a3_3ap_3a564-588.htm$$DView record in RePEc |
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| Cites_doi | 10.1086/262047 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780198208044.001.0001 10.1007/s001480050077 10.1111/j.1477-9552.1999.tb00899.x 10.2307/2223074 10.1017/S0022050700017903 10.1111/j.1468-0289.1991.tb01273.x 10.1017/CBO9780511571855 10.2307/2297923 10.2307/2551353 10.1073/pnas.68.2.335 10.1017/CBO9780511607967 10.1111/j.1468-0289.1982.tb01212.x 10.1006/exeh.1993.1009 10.1111/j.2397-2335.1922.tb00808.x 10.1111/j.1468-0289.1967.tb00135.x 10.2307/1882611 |
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| DOI | 10.1111/j.1477-9552.1999.tb00899.x |
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| Notes | ArticleID:JAGE564 istex:DEE327FF85FDD3EE8249CB0BBB2D10ADA3A8B4F8 ark:/67375/WNG-WLM0QGRX-3 The authors are Professor and Senior Lecturer, respectively, in the Department of Economics at the University of Essex. They are grateful to J. Oeppen and R. S. Schofield, of the ESRC Cambridge Group for the History of Population and Social Structure, who went to the trouble of locating and extracting some of the data used here. Joanne McGarry provided valuable research assistance in constructing the price series. Professors M. Overton and M. E. Turner offered helpful guidance at a crucial juncture. Constructive criticism from two referees improved both the substance and exposition of the paper, though the authors retain their culpability for all remaining errors. ObjectType-Article-1 SourceType-Scholarly Journals-1 ObjectType-Feature-2 content type line 14 ObjectType-Article-2 ObjectType-Feature-1 content type line 23 |
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| References | Granger, C. W. J. and Elliot, C. M. (1967). A Fresh Look at Wheat Prices and Markets in the Eighteenth Century, Economic History Review, 20, 257-265. Clark, G. (1991). Yields Per Acre in English Agriculture, 1250-1860: evidence from labour inputs, Journal of Economic History, 44(3, 445-60. Samuelson, P. A. (1957). Intertemporal Price Equilibrium: A Prologue to the Theory of Speculation, Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, 79, 181-219. Beveridge, W. H. (1921). Weather and Harvest Cycles, Economic Journal, 31, 429-452. Mingay, G. E. (ed) (1989). The Agrarian History of England and Wales: Volume VI, 1750-1850. Cambridge : Cambridge University Press. Bailey, R. E. and Chambers, M. J. (1998). The Impact of Real Wage and Mortality Fluctuations on Fertility and Nuptialityin Precensus England, Journal of Population Economics, 11(3, 413-434. Tooke, T. (1838). A History of Prices and of the State of the Circulation from 1793 to 1837. London : Longman, Orme, Brown, Green and Longmans. Collins, E. J. T. (1975). Dietary Change and Cereal Consumption in Britain in the Nineteenth Century, Agricultural History Review, 23, 97-115. Samuelson, P. A. (1971). Stochastic Speculative Price, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 68, 335-337. Nielsen, R. (1997). Storage and English Government Intervention in Early Modern Grain Markets, Journal of Economic History, 57, 1-33. Fetter, F. W. (1965). Development of British Monetary Orthodoxy 1797-1875. Cambridge , MA : Harvard University Press. Stern, W. M. (1964). The Bread Crisis in Britain, 1795-96, Economica, 31, 168-187. Williams, J. B. (1936). Speculation and the Carryover, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 50, 436-455. Deaton, A. S. and Laroque, G. (1992). On the Behaviour of Commodity Prices, Review of Economic Studies, 59, 1-23. Smith, A. (1976). An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations. Chicago , IL : University of Chicago Press. Cannan, E. (1925). The Paper Pound of 1797-1821, A Reprint of the Bullion Report, 2nd edition, London : P. S. King & Son. Hawtrey, R. G. (1950). Currency and Credit. London : Longman, Green and Company. Klovland, J. T. (1993). Zooming in on Sauerbeck: Monthly Wholesale Prices in Britain 1845-1890, Explorations in Economic History, 30, 195-228. Davidson, R. and MacKinnon, J. G. (1993). Estimation and Inference in Econometrics. New York and Oxford : Oxford University Press. Gayer, A. D., Rostow, W. W. and Schwartz, A. S. (1953). The Growth and Fluctuation of the British Economy, 1790-1850. Oxford : The Clarendon Press. Feavearyear, A. (1963). The Pound Sterling: A History of English Money. Oxford : Clarendon Press. Jones, E. L. (1964) Seasons and Prices: The Role of the Weather in English Agricultural History. London : George Allen & Unwin Ltd. Overton, M. (1996). Agricultural Revolution in England: The Transformation of the Agrarian Economy 1500-1850. Cambridge : Cambridge University Press. 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| References_xml | – reference: Ashton, T. S. (1959). Economic Fluctuations in England, 1700-1800. Oxford : Oxford University Press. – reference: Smith, A. (1976). An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations. Chicago , IL : University of Chicago Press. – reference: Feavearyear, A. (1963). The Pound Sterling: A History of English Money. Oxford : Clarendon Press. – reference: Beveridge, W. H. (1922). Wheat Prices and Rainfall in Western Europe, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, 85, 412-478. – reference: Cannan, E. (1925). The Paper Pound of 1797-1821, A Reprint of the Bullion Report, 2nd edition, London : P. S. King & Son. – reference: Tooke, T. (1838). A History of Prices and of the State of the Circulation from 1793 to 1837. London : Longman, Orme, Brown, Green and Longmans. – reference: Barnes, D. G. (1930). A History of the English Corn Laws from 1660 to 1846. London : George Roudedge & Sons, Ltd. – reference: Overton, M. (1996). Agricultural Revolution in England: The Transformation of the Agrarian Economy 1500-1850. Cambridge : Cambridge University Press. – reference: Williams, J. C. and Wright, B. D. (1991). Storage and Commodity Markets. Cambridge : Cambridge University Press. – reference: Gayer, A. D., Rostow, W. W. and Schwartz, A. S. (1953). The Growth and Fluctuation of the British Economy, 1790-1850. Oxford : The Clarendon Press. – reference: Granger, C. W. J. and Elliot, C. M. (1967). A Fresh Look at Wheat Prices and Markets in the Eighteenth Century, Economic History Review, 20, 257-265. – reference: Fetter, F. W. (1965). Development of British Monetary Orthodoxy 1797-1875. Cambridge , MA : Harvard University Press. – reference: Mingay, G. E. (ed) (1989). The Agrarian History of England and Wales: Volume VI, 1750-1850. Cambridge : Cambridge University Press. – reference: Turner, M. E., Beckett, J. V. and Afton, B. (forthcoming). Farm Production in England 1700-1914. Oxford : Oxford University Press. – reference: Beveridge, W. H. (1939). Prices and Wages in England From the Twelfth to the Nineteenth Century. Volume 1. Price Tables: The Mercantile Era. London : Longmans. – reference: Hoskins, W. G. (1968). Harvest Fluctuations and English Economic History, 1620-1759, Agricultural History Review, 16, 15-31. – reference: Beveridge, W. H. (1921). Weather and Harvest Cycles, Economic Journal, 31, 429-452. – reference: Clark, G. (1991). Yields Per Acre in English Agriculture, 1250-1860: evidence from labour inputs, Journal of Economic History, 44(3, 445-60. – reference: Rogers, J. E. T. (1902). A History of Agriculture and Prices in England, Volume VII. 17031793, Part I. Oxford : The Clarendon Press. – reference: Klovland, J. T. (1993). Zooming in on Sauerbeck: Monthly Wholesale Prices in Britain 1845-1890, Explorations in Economic History, 30, 195-228. – reference: Samuelson, P. A. (1971). Stochastic Speculative Price, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 68, 335-337. – reference: Davidson, R. and MacKinnon, J. G. (1993). Estimation and Inference in Econometrics. New York and Oxford : Oxford University Press. – reference: Chambers, M.J. and Bailey, R. E. (1996). A Theory of Commodity Price Fluctuations. Journal of Political Economy, 104, 924-957. – reference: Collins, E. J. T. (1975). Dietary Change and Cereal Consumption in Britain in the Nineteenth Century, Agricultural History Review, 23, 97-115. – reference: Jones, E. L. (1964) Seasons and Prices: The Role of the Weather in English Agricultural History. London : George Allen & Unwin Ltd. – reference: Phelps Brown, H. and Hopkins, S. V. (1981). A Perspective of Wages and Prices. London and New York : Methuen. – reference: Samuelson, P. A. (1957). Intertemporal Price Equilibrium: A Prologue to the Theory of Speculation, Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, 79, 181-219. – reference: Bailey, R. E. and Chambers, M. J. (1998). The Impact of Real Wage and Mortality Fluctuations on Fertility and Nuptialityin Precensus England, Journal of Population Economics, 11(3, 413-434. – reference: Nielsen, R. (1997). Storage and English Government Intervention in Early Modern Grain Markets, Journal of Economic History, 57, 1-33. – reference: Hawtrey, R. G. (1950). Currency and Credit. London : Longman, Green and Company. – reference: Williams, J. B. (1936). Speculation and the Carryover, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 50, 436-455. – reference: Turner, M. E. (1982). Agricultural Productivity in England in the Eighteenth Century: Evidence from Crop Yields, Economic History Review, 35(4, 489-510. – reference: Deaton, A. S. and Laroque, G. (1992). On the Behaviour of Commodity Prices, Review of Economic Studies, 59, 1-23. – reference: Stern, W. M. (1964). 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| SubjectTerms | 1685-1850 Agricultural economics Economic history England England (Süd) Prices United Kingdom Weizenpolitik Wheat Zeitreihenanalyse |
| Title | A Statistical Analysis of Wheat Price Fluctuations in England: 1685-1850 |
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