Evidence for increasing global wheat yield potential
Wheat is the most widely grown food crop, with 761 Mt produced globally in 2020. To meet the expected grain demand by mid-century, wheat breeding strategies must continue to improve upon yield-advancing physiological traits, regardless of climate change impacts. Here, the best performing doubled hap...
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| Published in | Environmental research letters Vol. 17; no. 12; pp. 124045 - 124057 |
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| Main Authors | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
| Format | Journal Article Web Resource |
| Language | English |
| Published |
Bristol
IOP Publishing
01.12.2022
Institute of Physics |
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| Online Access | Get full text |
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| Abstract | Wheat is the most widely grown food crop, with 761 Mt produced globally in 2020. To meet the expected grain demand by mid-century, wheat breeding strategies must continue to improve upon yield-advancing physiological traits, regardless of climate change impacts. Here, the best performing doubled haploid (DH) crosses with an increased canopy photosynthesis from wheat field experiments in the literature were extrapolated to the global scale with a multi-model ensemble of process-based wheat crop models to estimate global wheat production. The DH field experiments were also used to determine a quantitative relationship between wheat production and solar radiation to estimate genetic yield potential. The multi-model ensemble projected a global annual wheat production of 1050 ± 145 Mt due to the improved canopy photosynthesis, a 37% increase, without expanding cropping area. Achieving this genetic yield potential would meet the lower estimate of the projected grain demand in 2050, albeit with considerable challenges. |
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| AbstractList | Abstract Wheat is the most widely grown food crop, with 761 Mt produced globally in 2020. To meet the expected grain demand by mid-century, wheat breeding strategies must continue to improve upon yield-advancing physiological traits, regardless of climate change impacts. Here, the best performing doubled haploid (DH) crosses with an increased canopy photosynthesis from wheat field experiments in the literature were extrapolated to the global scale with a multi-model ensemble of process-based wheat crop models to estimate global wheat production. The DH field experiments were also used to determine a quantitative relationship between wheat production and solar radiation to estimate genetic yield potential. The multi-model ensemble projected a global annual wheat production of 1050 ± 145 Mt due to the improved canopy photosynthesis, a 37% increase, without expanding cropping area. Achieving this genetic yield potential would meet the lower estimate of the projected grain demand in 2050, albeit with considerable challenges. Wheat is the most widely grown food crop, with 761 Mt produced globally in 2020. To meet the expected grain demand by mid-century, wheat breeding strategies must continue to improve upon yield-advancing physiological traits, regardless of climate change impacts. Here, the best performing doubled haploid (DH) crosses with an increased canopy photosynthesis from wheat field experiments in the literature were extrapolated to the global scale with a multi-model ensemble of process-based wheat crop models to estimate global wheat production. The DH field experiments were also used to determine a quantitative relationship between wheat production and solar radiation to estimate genetic yield potential. The multi-model ensemble projected a global annual wheat production of 1050 ± 145 Mt due to the improved canopy photosynthesis, a 37% increase, without expanding cropping area. Achieving this genetic yield potential would meet the lower estimate of the projected grain demand in 2050, albeit with considerable challenges. Wheat is the most widely grown food crop, with 761 Mt produced globally in 2020. To meet the expected grain demand by mid-century, wheat breeding strategies must continue to improve upon yield-advancing physiological traits, regardless of climate change impacts. Here, the best performing doubled haploid (DH) crosses with an increased canopy photosynthesis from wheat field experiments in the literature were extrapolated to the global scale with a multi-model ensemble of process-based wheat crop models to estimate global wheat production. The DH field experiments were also used to determine a quantitative relationship between wheat production and solar radiation to estimate genetic yield potential. The multi-model ensemble projected a global annual wheat production of 1050 +/- 145 Mt due to the improved canopy photosynthesis, a 37% increase, without expanding cropping area. Achieving this genetic yield potential would meet the lower estimate of the projected grain demand in 2050, albeit with considerable challenges. |
| Author | Olesen, Jørgen E Nendel, Claas Giunta, Francesco Srivastava, Amit Kumar Molero, Gemma Martre, Pierre Ferrise, Roberto Basso, Bruno Siebert, Stefan Ahmed, Mukhtar Asseng, Senthold Gaiser, Thomas Rezaei, Ehsan Eyshi Ramos, Margarita Ruiz Zhu, Yan Webber, Heidi Pequeno, Diego N L Calderini, Daniel Hunt, Leslie A Zhao, Chuang Semenov, Mikhail A Guarin, Jose Rafael Zhang, Zhao Palosuo, Taru Weber, Tobias Karl David Garcia, Guillermo Miralles, Daniel Gayler, Sebastian Tao, Fulu Rötter, Reimund P Fereres, Elias Reynolds, Matthew Senapati, Nimai Thorburn, Peter Zhao, Jin Kersebaum, Kurt C Stella, Tommaso Supit, Iwan Bindi, Marco Berger, Andres G Zhao, Zhigan Ewert, Frank Chen, Yi Hoogenboom, Gerrit Wang, Enli Garcia-Vila, Margarita Rodríguez, Alfredo Dueri, Sibylle Slafer, Gustavo Hochman, Zvi Pullens, Johannes W M Bracho-Mujica, Gennady Cammarano, Davide Priesack, Eckart Xiao, Liujun Gao, Yujing Dumont, Benjamin Stöckle, Claudio Alderman, Phillip D |
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| Issue | 12 |
| Keywords | wheat potential yield crop model ensemble radiation use efficiency yield increase global food security |
| Language | English |
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| Snippet | Wheat is the most widely grown food crop, with 761 Mt produced globally in 2020. To meet the expected grain demand by mid-century, wheat breeding strategies... Abstract Wheat is the most widely grown food crop, with 761 Mt produced globally in 2020. To meet the expected grain demand by mid-century, wheat breeding... |
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| StartPage | 124045 |
| SubjectTerms | Agricultural Science Agriculture & agronomie Agriculture & agronomy Canopies Cereal crops Climate change crop model ensemble Crop modeling Crop production Crop yield Environmental impact Environmental Science (all) Environmental Sciences Field tests General Environmental Science Global food security Global food security supplementary material for this article be available online global food security Supplementary material for this article is available online Grain Jordbruksvetenskap Life Sciences Miljövetenskap Model ensembles Photosynthesis Plant breeding Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health radiation use efficiency Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment Sciences du vivant Solar radiation Vegetal Biology Wheat wheat potential yield Wheat production yield increase Yield potential |
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| Title | Evidence for increasing global wheat yield potential |
| URI | https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aca77c https://www.proquest.com/docview/2753718608 https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-03946522 http://orbi.ulg.ac.be/handle/2268/311147 https://res.slu.se/id/publ/120748 https://doaj.org/article/81525d45fd2e432682b3ed45f492ba92 |
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