Neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio predicts critical illness patients with 2019 coronavirus disease in the early stage

Patients with critical illness due to infection with the 2019 coronavirus disease (COVID-19) show rapid disease progression to acute respiratory failure. The study aimed to screen the most useful predictive factor for critical illness caused by COVID-19. The study prospectively involved 61 patients...

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Published inJournal of translational medicine Vol. 18; no. 1; pp. 206 - 12
Main Authors Liu, Jingyuan, Liu, Yao, Xiang, Pan, Pu, Lin, Xiong, Haofeng, Li, Chuansheng, Zhang, Ming, Tan, Jianbo, Xu, Yanli, Song, Rui, Song, Meihua, Wang, Lin, Zhang, Wei, Han, Bing, Yang, Li, Wang, Xiaojing, Zhou, Guiqin, Zhang, Ting, Li, Ben, Wang, Yanbin, Chen, Zhihai, Wang, Xianbo
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published England BioMed Central Ltd 20.05.2020
BioMed Central
BMC
Subjects
2019-nCoV
Adolescent
Adult
Adult respiratory distress syndrome
Aged
Aged, 80 and over
Betacoronavirus - pathogenicity
Blood
Child
Child, Preschool
Cohort Studies
Comorbidity
Coronaviridae
Coronavirus infections
Coronavirus Infections - blood
Coronavirus Infections - diagnosis
Coronavirus Infections - pathology
Coronaviruses
COVID-19
Critical Illness
Development and progression
Disease Progression
Dyspnea
Etiology
Female
Fever
Health aspects
History, 21st Century
Humans
Illnesses
Infant
Infection
Infections
Influenza
Laboratories
Leukocyte Count
Lymphocytes
Lymphocytes - pathology
Male
Medical diagnosis
Medical research
Middle Aged
Neutrophils
Neutrophils - pathology
NLR
Nomograms
Pandemics
Patients
Pneumonia
Pneumonia, Viral - blood
Pneumonia, Viral - diagnosis
Pneumonia, Viral - pathology
Polymerase chain reaction
Prognosis
Prospective Studies
Regression analysis
Respiratory failure
Risk factors
SARS-CoV
SARS-CoV-2
Severity of Illness Index
Young Adult
China
Beijing China
COVID-19
Model
Prognosis
2019-nCoV
NLR
SARS-CoV
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Abstract Patients with critical illness due to infection with the 2019 coronavirus disease (COVID-19) show rapid disease progression to acute respiratory failure. The study aimed to screen the most useful predictive factor for critical illness caused by COVID-19. The study prospectively involved 61 patients with COVID-19 infection as a derivation cohort, and 54 patients as a validation cohort. The predictive factor for critical illness was selected using LASSO regression analysis. A nomogram based on non-specific laboratory indicators was built to predict the probability of critical illness. The neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) was identified as an independent risk factor for critical illness in patients with COVID-19 infection. The NLR had an area under receiver operating characteristic of 0.849 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.707 to 0.991) in the derivation cohort and 0.867 (95% CI 0.747 to 0.944) in the validation cohort, the calibration curves fitted well, and the decision and clinical impact curves showed that the NLR had high standardized net benefit. In addition, the incidence of critical illness was 9.1% (1/11) for patients aged ≥ 50 and having an NLR < 3.13, and 50% (7/14) patients with age ≥ 50 and NLR ≥ 3.13 were predicted to develop critical illness. Based on the risk stratification of NLR according to age, this study has developed a COVID-19 pneumonia management process. We found that NLR is a predictive factor for early-stage prediction of patients infected with COVID-19 who are likely to develop critical illness. Patients aged ≥ 50 and having an NLR ≥ 3.13 are predicted to develop critical illness, and they should thus have rapid access to an intensive care unit if necessary.
AbstractList The study prospectively involved 61 patients with COVID-19 infection as a derivation cohort, and 54 patients as a validation cohort. The predictive factor for critical illness was selected using LASSO regression analysis. A nomogram based on non-specific laboratory indicators was built to predict the probability of critical illness. The neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) was identified as an independent risk factor for critical illness in patients with COVID-19 infection. The NLR had an area under receiver operating characteristic of 0.849 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.707 to 0.991) in the derivation cohort and 0.867 (95% CI 0.747 to 0.944) in the validation cohort, the calibration curves fitted well, and the decision and clinical impact curves showed that the NLR had high standardized net benefit. In addition, the incidence of critical illness was 9.1% (1/11) for patients aged [greater than or equai to] 50 and having an NLR < 3.13, and 50% (7/14) patients with age [greater than or equai to] 50 and NLR [greater than or equai to] 3.13 were predicted to develop critical illness. Based on the risk stratification of NLR according to age, this study has developed a COVID-19 pneumonia management process. We found that NLR is a predictive factor for early-stage prediction of patients infected with COVID-19 who are likely to develop critical illness. Patients aged [greater than or equai to] 50 and having an NLR [greater than or equai to] 3.13 are predicted to develop critical illness, and they should thus have rapid access to an intensive care unit if necessary.
Abstract Background Patients with critical illness due to infection with the 2019 coronavirus disease (COVID-19) show rapid disease progression to acute respiratory failure. The study aimed to screen the most useful predictive factor for critical illness caused by COVID-19. Methods The study prospectively involved 61 patients with COVID-19 infection as a derivation cohort, and 54 patients as a validation cohort. The predictive factor for critical illness was selected using LASSO regression analysis. A nomogram based on non-specific laboratory indicators was built to predict the probability of critical illness. Results The neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) was identified as an independent risk factor for critical illness in patients with COVID-19 infection. The NLR had an area under receiver operating characteristic of 0.849 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.707 to 0.991) in the derivation cohort and 0.867 (95% CI 0.747 to 0.944) in the validation cohort, the calibration curves fitted well, and the decision and clinical impact curves showed that the NLR had high standardized net benefit. In addition, the incidence of critical illness was 9.1% (1/11) for patients aged ≥ 50 and having an NLR < 3.13, and 50% (7/14) patients with age ≥ 50 and NLR ≥ 3.13 were predicted to develop critical illness. Based on the risk stratification of NLR according to age, this study has developed a COVID-19 pneumonia management process. Conclusions We found that NLR is a predictive factor for early-stage prediction of patients infected with COVID-19 who are likely to develop critical illness. Patients aged ≥ 50 and having an NLR ≥ 3.13 are predicted to develop critical illness, and they should thus have rapid access to an intensive care unit if necessary.
Background Patients with critical illness due to infection with the 2019 coronavirus disease (COVID-19) show rapid disease progression to acute respiratory failure. The study aimed to screen the most useful predictive factor for critical illness caused by COVID-19. Methods The study prospectively involved 61 patients with COVID-19 infection as a derivation cohort, and 54 patients as a validation cohort. The predictive factor for critical illness was selected using LASSO regression analysis. A nomogram based on non-specific laboratory indicators was built to predict the probability of critical illness. Results The neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) was identified as an independent risk factor for critical illness in patients with COVID-19 infection. The NLR had an area under receiver operating characteristic of 0.849 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.707 to 0.991) in the derivation cohort and 0.867 (95% CI 0.747 to 0.944) in the validation cohort, the calibration curves fitted well, and the decision and clinical impact curves showed that the NLR had high standardized net benefit. In addition, the incidence of critical illness was 9.1% (1/11) for patients aged ≥ 50 and having an NLR < 3.13, and 50% (7/14) patients with age ≥ 50 and NLR ≥ 3.13 were predicted to develop critical illness. Based on the risk stratification of NLR according to age, this study has developed a COVID-19 pneumonia management process. Conclusions We found that NLR is a predictive factor for early-stage prediction of patients infected with COVID-19 who are likely to develop critical illness. Patients aged ≥ 50 and having an NLR ≥ 3.13 are predicted to develop critical illness, and they should thus have rapid access to an intensive care unit if necessary.
Background Patients with critical illness due to infection with the 2019 coronavirus disease (COVID-19) show rapid disease progression to acute respiratory failure. The study aimed to screen the most useful predictive factor for critical illness caused by COVID-19. Methods The study prospectively involved 61 patients with COVID-19 infection as a derivation cohort, and 54 patients as a validation cohort. The predictive factor for critical illness was selected using LASSO regression analysis. A nomogram based on non-specific laboratory indicators was built to predict the probability of critical illness. Results The neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) was identified as an independent risk factor for critical illness in patients with COVID-19 infection. The NLR had an area under receiver operating characteristic of 0.849 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.707 to 0.991) in the derivation cohort and 0.867 (95% CI 0.747 to 0.944) in the validation cohort, the calibration curves fitted well, and the decision and clinical impact curves showed that the NLR had high standardized net benefit. In addition, the incidence of critical illness was 9.1% (1/11) for patients aged [greater than or equai to] 50 and having an NLR < 3.13, and 50% (7/14) patients with age [greater than or equai to] 50 and NLR [greater than or equai to] 3.13 were predicted to develop critical illness. Based on the risk stratification of NLR according to age, this study has developed a COVID-19 pneumonia management process. Conclusions We found that NLR is a predictive factor for early-stage prediction of patients infected with COVID-19 who are likely to develop critical illness. Patients aged [greater than or equai to] 50 and having an NLR [greater than or equai to] 3.13 are predicted to develop critical illness, and they should thus have rapid access to an intensive care unit if necessary. Keywords: COVID-19, 2019-nCoV, NLR, Model, Prognosis, SARS-CoV
Patients with critical illness due to infection with the 2019 coronavirus disease (COVID-19) show rapid disease progression to acute respiratory failure. The study aimed to screen the most useful predictive factor for critical illness caused by COVID-19. The study prospectively involved 61 patients with COVID-19 infection as a derivation cohort, and 54 patients as a validation cohort. The predictive factor for critical illness was selected using LASSO regression analysis. A nomogram based on non-specific laboratory indicators was built to predict the probability of critical illness. The neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) was identified as an independent risk factor for critical illness in patients with COVID-19 infection. The NLR had an area under receiver operating characteristic of 0.849 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.707 to 0.991) in the derivation cohort and 0.867 (95% CI 0.747 to 0.944) in the validation cohort, the calibration curves fitted well, and the decision and clinical impact curves showed that the NLR had high standardized net benefit. In addition, the incidence of critical illness was 9.1% (1/11) for patients aged ≥ 50 and having an NLR < 3.13, and 50% (7/14) patients with age ≥ 50 and NLR ≥ 3.13 were predicted to develop critical illness. Based on the risk stratification of NLR according to age, this study has developed a COVID-19 pneumonia management process. We found that NLR is a predictive factor for early-stage prediction of patients infected with COVID-19 who are likely to develop critical illness. Patients aged ≥ 50 and having an NLR ≥ 3.13 are predicted to develop critical illness, and they should thus have rapid access to an intensive care unit if necessary.
Patients with critical illness due to infection with the 2019 coronavirus disease (COVID-19) show rapid disease progression to acute respiratory failure. The study aimed to screen the most useful predictive factor for critical illness caused by COVID-19.BACKGROUNDPatients with critical illness due to infection with the 2019 coronavirus disease (COVID-19) show rapid disease progression to acute respiratory failure. The study aimed to screen the most useful predictive factor for critical illness caused by COVID-19.The study prospectively involved 61 patients with COVID-19 infection as a derivation cohort, and 54 patients as a validation cohort. The predictive factor for critical illness was selected using LASSO regression analysis. A nomogram based on non-specific laboratory indicators was built to predict the probability of critical illness.METHODSThe study prospectively involved 61 patients with COVID-19 infection as a derivation cohort, and 54 patients as a validation cohort. The predictive factor for critical illness was selected using LASSO regression analysis. A nomogram based on non-specific laboratory indicators was built to predict the probability of critical illness.The neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) was identified as an independent risk factor for critical illness in patients with COVID-19 infection. The NLR had an area under receiver operating characteristic of 0.849 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.707 to 0.991) in the derivation cohort and 0.867 (95% CI 0.747 to 0.944) in the validation cohort, the calibration curves fitted well, and the decision and clinical impact curves showed that the NLR had high standardized net benefit. In addition, the incidence of critical illness was 9.1% (1/11) for patients aged ≥ 50 and having an NLR < 3.13, and 50% (7/14) patients with age ≥ 50 and NLR ≥ 3.13 were predicted to develop critical illness. Based on the risk stratification of NLR according to age, this study has developed a COVID-19 pneumonia management process.RESULTSThe neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) was identified as an independent risk factor for critical illness in patients with COVID-19 infection. The NLR had an area under receiver operating characteristic of 0.849 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.707 to 0.991) in the derivation cohort and 0.867 (95% CI 0.747 to 0.944) in the validation cohort, the calibration curves fitted well, and the decision and clinical impact curves showed that the NLR had high standardized net benefit. In addition, the incidence of critical illness was 9.1% (1/11) for patients aged ≥ 50 and having an NLR < 3.13, and 50% (7/14) patients with age ≥ 50 and NLR ≥ 3.13 were predicted to develop critical illness. Based on the risk stratification of NLR according to age, this study has developed a COVID-19 pneumonia management process.We found that NLR is a predictive factor for early-stage prediction of patients infected with COVID-19 who are likely to develop critical illness. Patients aged ≥ 50 and having an NLR ≥ 3.13 are predicted to develop critical illness, and they should thus have rapid access to an intensive care unit if necessary.CONCLUSIONSWe found that NLR is a predictive factor for early-stage prediction of patients infected with COVID-19 who are likely to develop critical illness. Patients aged ≥ 50 and having an NLR ≥ 3.13 are predicted to develop critical illness, and they should thus have rapid access to an intensive care unit if necessary.
ArticleNumber 206
Audience Academic
Author Xu, Yanli
Song, Rui
Zhou, Guiqin
Zhang, Ting
Zhang, Wei
Li, Chuansheng
Yang, Li
Pu, Lin
Xiong, Haofeng
Xiang, Pan
Liu, Yao
Tan, Jianbo
Chen, Zhihai
Song, Meihua
Li, Ben
Liu, Jingyuan
Wang, Lin
Wang, Xiaojing
Wang, Yanbin
Wang, Xianbo
Zhang, Ming
Han, Bing
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BackLink https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32434518$$D View this record in MEDLINE/PubMed
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Keywords COVID-19
Model
Prognosis
2019-nCoV
NLR
SARS-CoV
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License Open AccessThis article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated in a credit line to the data.
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Snippet Patients with critical illness due to infection with the 2019 coronavirus disease (COVID-19) show rapid disease progression to acute respiratory failure. The...
Background Patients with critical illness due to infection with the 2019 coronavirus disease (COVID-19) show rapid disease progression to acute respiratory...
The study prospectively involved 61 patients with COVID-19 infection as a derivation cohort, and 54 patients as a validation cohort. The predictive factor for...
Abstract Background Patients with critical illness due to infection with the 2019 coronavirus disease (COVID-19) show rapid disease progression to acute...
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SubjectTerms 2019-nCoV
Adolescent
Adult
Adult respiratory distress syndrome
Aged
Aged, 80 and over
Betacoronavirus - pathogenicity
Blood
Child
Child, Preschool
Cohort Studies
Comorbidity
Coronaviridae
Coronavirus infections
Coronavirus Infections - blood
Coronavirus Infections - diagnosis
Coronavirus Infections - pathology
Coronaviruses
COVID-19
Critical Illness
Development and progression
Disease Progression
Dyspnea
Etiology
Female
Fever
Health aspects
History, 21st Century
Humans
Illnesses
Infant
Infection
Infections
Influenza
Laboratories
Leukocyte Count
Lymphocytes
Lymphocytes - pathology
Male
Medical diagnosis
Medical research
Middle Aged
Neutrophils
Neutrophils - pathology
NLR
Nomograms
Pandemics
Patients
Pneumonia
Pneumonia, Viral - blood
Pneumonia, Viral - diagnosis
Pneumonia, Viral - pathology
Polymerase chain reaction
Prognosis
Prospective Studies
Regression analysis
Respiratory failure
Risk factors
SARS-CoV
SARS-CoV-2
Severity of Illness Index
Young Adult
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Title Neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio predicts critical illness patients with 2019 coronavirus disease in the early stage
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