Efficiency of earthquake forecast models based on earth tidal correlation with background seismicity along the Tonga–Kermadec trench

• Published in: Earth, planets, and space Vol. 74; no. 1; pp. 1 - 11
• Main Authors: Hirose, Fuyuki, Maeda, Kenji, Kamigaichi, Osamu
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Berlin/Heidelberg Springer Berlin Heidelberg 05.01.2022; Springer; Springer Nature B.V; SpringerOpen
• Subjects: 4. Seismology; Correlation; Earth and Environmental Science; Earth Sciences; Earth tides; Earthquake forecasting; Earthquake prediction; Earthquakes; Geology; Geophysics/Geodesy; Mathematical models; Molchan’s error diagram; p-value; Probability gain; Schuster test; Seismic activity; Seismicity; Seismological research; Tidal power; Tonga–Kermadec trench; Japan; Tonga; Tonga–Kermadec trench; Probability gain; Schuster test; Molchan’s error diagram; value; Earth tides

The correlation between Earth’s tides and background seismicity has been suggested to become stronger before great earthquakes and weaker after. However, previous studies have only retrospectively analyzed this correlation after individual large earthquakes; it thus remains vague (i) whether such va...