Managing soil natural capital: An effective strategy for mitigating future agricultural risks?

•We examine the role of soil natural capital in mitigating agricultural risks.•We model weather and price risks using the Copula method.•We construct a dynamic portfolio model to optimize soil organic carbon (SOC).•Higher SOC (soil natural capital) buffers yield variance against adverse weather.•Hig...

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Published inAgricultural systems Vol. 129; pp. 30 - 39
Main Authors Cong, Rong-Gang, Hedlund, Katarina, Andersson, Hans, Brady, Mark
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published Elsevier Ltd 01.07.2014
Subjects
Biologi
Biological Sciences
Copula model
Dynamic portfolio theory
Earth and Related Environmental Sciences
Economics
Geovetenskap och miljövetenskap
Nationalekonomi
Natural Sciences
Naturvetenskap
Resilience
Soil ecosystem services
Soil organic carbon
Sustainable agriculture
Sustainable agriculture
Copula model
Soil organic carbon
Soil ecosystem services
Dynamic portfolio theory
Resilience
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Abstract •We examine the role of soil natural capital in mitigating agricultural risks.•We model weather and price risks using the Copula method.•We construct a dynamic portfolio model to optimize soil organic carbon (SOC).•Higher SOC (soil natural capital) buffers yield variance against adverse weather.•Higher SOC reduces reliance on external inputs and hence price risk. Uncontrollable events such as adverse weather and volatile prices present considerable risks for arable farmers. Soil natural capital, which views the capacity of soil biodiversity to generate ecosystem services as a component of farm capital, could be important for the stability and resilience of arable production systems. We investigate therefore whether managing soil natural capital could be an effective strategy for mitigating future agricultural risks. We do this by constructing a dynamic stochastic portfolio model to optimize the stock of soil organic carbon (SOC)—our indicator of soil natural capital—when considering both the risks and returns from farming. SOC is controlled via the spatial and temporal allocation of cash crops and an illustrative replenishing land use. We find that higher soil natural capital buffers yield variance against adverse weather and reduces reliance on external inputs. Managing soil natural capital has therefore the potential to mitigate two serious agricultural risks: energy price shocks and adverse weather events, both of which are likely to be exacerbated in the future due to, e.g., globalization and climate change.
AbstractList Uncontrollable events such as adverse weather and volatile prices present considerable risks for arable farmers. Soil natural capital, which views the capacity of soil biodiversity to generate ecosystem services as a component of farm capital, could be important for the stability and resilience of arable production systems. We investigate therefore whether managing soil natural capital could be an effective strategy for mitigating future agricultural risks. We do this by constructing a dynamic stochastic portfolio model to optimize the stock of soil organic carbon (SOC)-our indicator of soil natural capital-when considering both the risks and returns from farming. SOC is controlled via the spatial and temporal allocation of cash crops and an illustrative replenishing land use. We find that higher soil natural capital buffers yield variance against adverse weather and reduces reliance on external inputs. Managing soil natural capital has therefore the potential to mitigate two serious agricultural risks: energy price shocks and adverse weather events, both of which are likely to be exacerbated in the future due to, e.g., globalization and climate change. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Uncontrollable events such as adverse weather and volatile prices present considerable risks for arable farmers. Soil natural capital, which views the capacity of soil biodiversity to generate ecosystem services as a component of farm capital, could be important for the stability and resilience of arable production systems. We investigate therefore whether managing soil natural capital could be an effective strategy for mitigating future agricultural risks. We do this by constructing a dynamic stochastic portfolio model to optimize the stock of soil organic carbon (SOC)-our indicator of soil natural capital-when considering both the risks and returns from farming. SOC is controlled via the spatial and temporal allocation of cash crops and an illustrative replenishing land use. We find that higher soil natural capital buffers yield variance against adverse weather and reduces reliance on external inputs. Managing soil natural capital has therefore the potential to mitigate two serious agricultural risks: energy price shocks and adverse weather events, both of which are likely to be exacerbated in the future due to, e.g., globalization and climate change.
•We examine the role of soil natural capital in mitigating agricultural risks.•We model weather and price risks using the Copula method.•We construct a dynamic portfolio model to optimize soil organic carbon (SOC).•Higher SOC (soil natural capital) buffers yield variance against adverse weather.•Higher SOC reduces reliance on external inputs and hence price risk. Uncontrollable events such as adverse weather and volatile prices present considerable risks for arable farmers. Soil natural capital, which views the capacity of soil biodiversity to generate ecosystem services as a component of farm capital, could be important for the stability and resilience of arable production systems. We investigate therefore whether managing soil natural capital could be an effective strategy for mitigating future agricultural risks. We do this by constructing a dynamic stochastic portfolio model to optimize the stock of soil organic carbon (SOC)—our indicator of soil natural capital—when considering both the risks and returns from farming. SOC is controlled via the spatial and temporal allocation of cash crops and an illustrative replenishing land use. We find that higher soil natural capital buffers yield variance against adverse weather and reduces reliance on external inputs. Managing soil natural capital has therefore the potential to mitigate two serious agricultural risks: energy price shocks and adverse weather events, both of which are likely to be exacerbated in the future due to, e.g., globalization and climate change.
Author Hedlund, Katarina
Andersson, Hans
Brady, Mark
Cong, Rong-Gang
Author_xml – sequence: 1
  givenname: Rong-Gang
  orcidid: 0000-0003-3506-2095
  surname: Cong
  fullname: Cong, Rong-Gang
  email: Cascong@126.com, Ronggang.Cong@cec.lu.se
  organization: Centre for Environmental and Climate Research (CEC), Lund University, Lund S-22362, Sweden
– sequence: 2
  givenname: Katarina
  surname: Hedlund
  fullname: Hedlund, Katarina
  email: katarina.hedlund@biol.lu.se
  organization: Centre for Environmental and Climate Research (CEC), Lund University, Lund S-22362, Sweden
– sequence: 3
  givenname: Hans
  surname: Andersson
  fullname: Andersson, Hans
  email: Hans.Andersson@slu.se
  organization: Department of Economics, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, S-75007 Uppsala, Sweden
– sequence: 4
  givenname: Mark
  surname: Brady
  fullname: Brady, Mark
  email: Mark.Brady@slu.se
  organization: Centre for Environmental and Climate Research (CEC), Lund University, Lund S-22362, Sweden
BackLink https://lup.lub.lu.se/record/4531103$$DView record from Swedish Publication Index
https://res.slu.se/id/publ/60386$$DView record from Swedish Publication Index
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Keywords Sustainable agriculture
Copula model
Soil organic carbon
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Dynamic portfolio theory
Resilience
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Snippet •We examine the role of soil natural capital in mitigating agricultural risks.•We model weather and price risks using the Copula method.•We construct a dynamic...
Uncontrollable events such as adverse weather and volatile prices present considerable risks for arable farmers. Soil natural capital, which views the capacity...
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SubjectTerms Biologi
Biological Sciences
Copula model
Dynamic portfolio theory
Earth and Related Environmental Sciences
Economics
Geovetenskap och miljövetenskap
Nationalekonomi
Natural Sciences
Naturvetenskap
Resilience
Soil ecosystem services
Soil organic carbon
Sustainable agriculture
Title Managing soil natural capital: An effective strategy for mitigating future agricultural risks?
URI https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2014.05.003
https://search.proquest.com/docview/1551629019
https://lup.lub.lu.se/record/4531103
https://res.slu.se/id/publ/60386
Volume 129
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