Systematic selection between age and household structure for models aimed at emerging epidemic predictions

• Published in: Nature communications Vol. 11; no. 1; pp. 906 - 11
• Main Authors: Pellis, Lorenzo, Cauchemez, Simon, Ferguson, Neil M., Fraser, Christophe
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: London Nature Publishing Group UK 14.02.2020; Nature Publishing Group; Nature Portfolio
• Subjects: 631/158/1745; 639/705/1041; 639/705/1042; 692/699/255; Age Factors; Communicable Diseases, Emerging; Communicable Diseases, Emerging - epidemiology; Communicable Diseases, Emerging - transmission; Epidemics; Epidemics - statistics & numerical data; Family Characteristics; Humanities and Social Sciences; Humans; Mathematics; Models, Statistical; multidisciplinary; Science; Science (multidisciplinary); Statistics
• DOI: 10.1038/s41467-019-14229-4
• ISSN: 2041-1723

Numerous epidemic models have been developed to capture aspects of human contact patterns, making model selection challenging when they fit (often-scarce) early epidemic data equally well but differ in predictions. Here we consider the invasion of a novel directly transmissible infection and perform an extensive, systematic and transparent comparison of models with explicit age and/or household structure, to determine the accuracy loss in predictions in the absence of interventions when ignoring either or both social components. We conclude that, with heterogeneous and assortative contact patterns relevant to respiratory infections, the model’s age stratification is crucial for accurate predictions. Conversely, the household structure is only needed if transmission is highly concentrated in households, as suggested by an empirical but robust rule of thumb based on household secondary attack rate. This work serves as a template to guide the simplicity/accuracy trade-off in designing models aimed at initial, rapid assessment of potential epidemic severity. Models of emerging epidemics can be exceedingly helpful in planning the response, but early on model selection is a difficult task. Here, the authors explore the joint contribution of age stratification and household structure on epidemic spread, and provides a rule of thumb to guide model choice.