Sexual transmission and the probability of an end of the Ebola virus disease epidemic

• Published in: Journal of theoretical biology Vol. 471; no. C; pp. 1 - 12
• Main Authors: Lee, Hyojung, Nishiura, Hiroshi
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: England Elsevier Ltd 21.06.2019; Elsevier
• Subjects: Africa, Western - epidemiology; Ebola virus disease; Epidemic; Epidemics; Extinction; Female; Generation time; Hemorrhagic Fever, Ebola - epidemiology; Hemorrhagic Fever, Ebola - transmission; Humans; Male; Models, Biological; Recurrence; Sexually Transmitted Diseases, Viral - epidemiology; Sexually Transmitted Diseases, Viral - transmission; Sexually transmitted infections; Unsafe Sex; Africa, Western; Epidemic; Recurrence; Generation time; Extinction; Ebola virus disease; Sexually transmitted infections

•WHO erroneously declared the end of Ebola, many of which caused by sexual transmission.•We computed the probability of the end of an Ebola, accounting for sexual transmission and under-ascertainment.•Calculating the probability of the end of epidemic outperformed the existing 42-day criteria of the...