GOD, ANTS AND THOMAS BAYES

• Published in: The American Economist (New York, N.Y. 1960) Vol. 55; no. 2; pp. 5 - 13
• Main Author: Markowitz, Harry M.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Los Angeles, CA Omicron Delta Epsilon 22.09.2010; SAGE Publications; Sage Publications, Inc; SAGE PUBLICATIONS, INC
• Subjects: Ants; Approximation; Bayes rule; Bayesian analysis; Decision making; Economic theory; Expected utility; Humans; Hypotheses; Kitchens; Low frequencies; Newtons law of cooling; Philosophy; Probability; Radio; Radio waves; Utility functions; Variance analysis

By and large the author finds that the attempt to reconcile apparently conflicting beliefs is a driving force for pondering and, sometimes, for discovery. He concluded that, for many utility functions, if probability distributions are not too spread out, then a quadratic approximation fits quite wel...