GOD, ANTS AND THOMAS BAYES
By and large the author finds that the attempt to reconcile apparently conflicting beliefs is a driving force for pondering and, sometimes, for discovery. He concluded that, for many utility functions, if probability distributions are not too spread out, then a quadratic approximation fits quite wel...
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Published in | The American Economist (New York, N.Y. 1960) Vol. 55; no. 2; pp. 5 - 13 |
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Main Author | |
Format | Journal Article |
Language | English |
Published |
Los Angeles, CA
Omicron Delta Epsilon
22.09.2010
SAGE Publications Sage Publications, Inc SAGE PUBLICATIONS, INC |
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Abstract | By and large the author finds that the attempt to reconcile apparently conflicting beliefs is a driving force for pondering and, sometimes, for discovery. He concluded that, for many utility functions, if probability distributions are not too spread out, then a quadratic approximation fits quite well. In that case the mean-variance approximation to expected utility is quite good -- no matter what the shape of the distribution. This article will not discuss the application of mean-variance analysis to investment decisions, or Operations Research techniques he has developed for other practical decision problems. Rather, it will review Bayesanism as put forth by L. J. Savage; tell readers how the author knows he is a Bayesian; and apply Bayesianism to philosophical questions such as: Is there a God and, if so what is He, She or It like? |
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AbstractList | By and large the author finds that the attempt to reconcile apparently conflicting beliefs is a driving force for pondering and, sometimes, for discovery. He concluded that, for many utility functions, if probability distributions are not too spread out, then a quadratic approximation fits quite well. In that case the mean-variance approximation to expected utility is quite good -- no matter what the shape of the distribution. This article will not discuss the application of mean-variance analysis to investment decisions, or Operations Research techniques he has developed for other practical decision problems. Rather, it will review Bayesanism as put forth by L. J. Savage; tell readers how the author knows he is a Bayesian; and apply Bayesianism to philosophical questions such as: Is there a God and, if so what is He, She or It like? |
Audience | Academic |
Author | Markowitz, Harry M. |
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Cites_doi | 10.2307/1909829 10.1142/6967 |
ContentType | Journal Article |
Copyright | Copyright 2010 Omicron Delta Epsilon Copyright © 2010 Omicron Delta Epsilon COPYRIGHT 2010 Sage Publications, Inc. COPYRIGHT 2010 Sage Publications, Inc. Copyright Omicron Delta Epsilon Fraternity Fall 2010 |
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References | James 1902 Godel 1931 1967; 38 Markowitz, Reid, Tew 1989 De Finetti 1937 1938 Levy, Markowitz 1979; 69 Bernoulli 1738 1954; 22 Bayes 1763 1958; 53 Markowitz 1952; 7 bibr3-056943451005500203 Markowitz H.M. (bibr14-056943451005500203) 1989 Levy H. (bibr9-056943451005500203) 1979; 69 bibr2-056943451005500203 De Finetti B. (bibr4-056943451005500203) 1937 bibr12-056943451005500203 Markowitz H.M. (bibr11-056943451005500203) 1959 bibr15-056943451005500203 bibr13-056943451005500203 Godel K. (bibr6-056943451005500203) 1931; 38 Bayes T.R. (bibr1-056943451005500203) 1763; 53 Hume D. (bibr7-056943451005500203) 1776 bibr5-056943451005500203 Markowitz H.M. (bibr10-056943451005500203) 1952; 7 Von Neumann J. (bibr16-056943451005500203) 1944 James William (bibr8-056943451005500203) 1902 |
References_xml | – volume: 22 start-page: 23 year: 1738 1954 end-page: 36 192 article-title: Specimen theoriae novae de mensura sortis. Exposition of a New Theory on the Measurement of Risk publication-title: Econometrica contributor: fullname: Bernoulli – volume: 38 start-page: 173 year: 1931 1967 end-page: 98 616 publication-title: Uber Formal unentscheidbare Sätze der Principia Mathematica und verwandter Systeme, I. Monatshefte für Mathematik und Physik contributor: fullname: Godel – volume: 53 start-page: 293 issue: 370 year: 1763 1958 end-page: 295 article-title: An Essay Towards Solving a Problem in the Doctrine of Chances Phil publication-title: Trans. Roy. Soc contributor: fullname: Bayes – issue: 739 year: 1937 1938 publication-title: Sur la condition d' equivalence partille, Colloque Geneve 1937 in Act. Sci. Ind contributor: fullname: De Finetti – year: 1902 article-title: The Varieties of Religious Experience: A Study in Human Nature publication-title: The Modern Library contributor: fullname: James – volume: 69 start-page: 308 issue: 3 year: 1979 end-page: 317 article-title: Approximating Expected Utility by a Function of Mean and Variance publication-title: American Economic Review contributor: fullname: Markowitz – volume: 7 start-page: 77 issue: 1 year: 1952 end-page: 91 article-title: Portfolio Selection publication-title: The Journal of Finance contributor: fullname: Markowitz – start-page: 82 year: 1989 end-page: 91 article-title: The Value of a Blank Check publication-title: The Journal of Portfolio Management contributor: fullname: Tew – ident: bibr3-056943451005500203 – volume: 69 start-page: 308 issue: 3 year: 1979 ident: bibr9-056943451005500203 publication-title: American Economic Review contributor: fullname: Levy H. – ident: bibr12-056943451005500203 – volume-title: Portfolio Selection: Efficient Diversification of Investments year: 1959 ident: bibr11-056943451005500203 contributor: fullname: Markowitz H.M. – volume-title: Theory of Games and Economic Behavior year: 1944 ident: bibr16-056943451005500203 contributor: fullname: Von Neumann J. – ident: bibr2-056943451005500203 doi: 10.2307/1909829 – ident: bibr5-056943451005500203 – start-page: 82 year: 1989 ident: bibr14-056943451005500203 publication-title: The Journal of Portfolio Management contributor: fullname: Markowitz H.M. – volume: 53 start-page: 293 issue: 370 year: 1763 ident: bibr1-056943451005500203 publication-title: Trans. Roy. Soc contributor: fullname: Bayes T.R. – ident: bibr13-056943451005500203 doi: 10.1142/6967 – volume-title: A Treatise of Human Nature year: 1776 ident: bibr7-056943451005500203 contributor: fullname: Hume D. – issue: 739 year: 1937 ident: bibr4-056943451005500203 publication-title: Sur la condition d' equivalence partille, Colloque Geneve 1937 in Act. Sci. Ind contributor: fullname: De Finetti B. – volume: 7 start-page: 77 issue: 1 year: 1952 ident: bibr10-056943451005500203 publication-title: The Journal of Finance contributor: fullname: Markowitz H.M. – ident: bibr15-056943451005500203 – year: 1902 ident: bibr8-056943451005500203 publication-title: The Modern Library contributor: fullname: James William – volume: 38 start-page: 173 year: 1931 ident: bibr6-056943451005500203 publication-title: Uber Formal unentscheidbare Sätze der Principia Mathematica und verwandter Systeme, I. Monatshefte für Mathematik und Physik contributor: fullname: Godel K. |
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SubjectTerms | Ants Approximation Bayes rule Bayesian analysis Decision making Economic theory Expected utility Humans Hypotheses Kitchens Low frequencies Newtons law of cooling Philosophy Probability Radio Radio waves Utility functions Variance analysis |
Title | GOD, ANTS AND THOMAS BAYES |
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