GOD, ANTS AND THOMAS BAYES

By and large the author finds that the attempt to reconcile apparently conflicting beliefs is a driving force for pondering and, sometimes, for discovery. He concluded that, for many utility functions, if probability distributions are not too spread out, then a quadratic approximation fits quite wel...

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Published inThe American Economist (New York, N.Y. 1960) Vol. 55; no. 2; pp. 5 - 13
Main Author Markowitz, Harry M.
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published Los Angeles, CA Omicron Delta Epsilon 22.09.2010
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Abstract By and large the author finds that the attempt to reconcile apparently conflicting beliefs is a driving force for pondering and, sometimes, for discovery. He concluded that, for many utility functions, if probability distributions are not too spread out, then a quadratic approximation fits quite well. In that case the mean-variance approximation to expected utility is quite good -- no matter what the shape of the distribution. This article will not discuss the application of mean-variance analysis to investment decisions, or Operations Research techniques he has developed for other practical decision problems. Rather, it will review Bayesanism as put forth by L. J. Savage; tell readers how the author knows he is a Bayesian; and apply Bayesianism to philosophical questions such as: Is there a God and, if so what is He, She or It like?
AbstractList By and large the author finds that the attempt to reconcile apparently conflicting beliefs is a driving force for pondering and, sometimes, for discovery. He concluded that, for many utility functions, if probability distributions are not too spread out, then a quadratic approximation fits quite well. In that case the mean-variance approximation to expected utility is quite good -- no matter what the shape of the distribution. This article will not discuss the application of mean-variance analysis to investment decisions, or Operations Research techniques he has developed for other practical decision problems. Rather, it will review Bayesanism as put forth by L. J. Savage; tell readers how the author knows he is a Bayesian; and apply Bayesianism to philosophical questions such as: Is there a God and, if so what is He, She or It like?
Audience Academic
Author Markowitz, Harry M.
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Cites_doi 10.2307/1909829
10.1142/6967
ContentType Journal Article
Copyright Copyright 2010 Omicron Delta Epsilon
Copyright © 2010 Omicron Delta Epsilon
COPYRIGHT 2010 Sage Publications, Inc.
COPYRIGHT 2010 Sage Publications, Inc.
Copyright Omicron Delta Epsilon Fraternity Fall 2010
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References James 1902
Godel 1931 1967; 38
Markowitz, Reid, Tew 1989
De Finetti 1937 1938
Levy, Markowitz 1979; 69
Bernoulli 1738 1954; 22
Bayes 1763 1958; 53
Markowitz 1952; 7
bibr3-056943451005500203
Markowitz H.M. (bibr14-056943451005500203) 1989
Levy H. (bibr9-056943451005500203) 1979; 69
bibr2-056943451005500203
De Finetti B. (bibr4-056943451005500203) 1937
bibr12-056943451005500203
Markowitz H.M. (bibr11-056943451005500203) 1959
bibr15-056943451005500203
bibr13-056943451005500203
Godel K. (bibr6-056943451005500203) 1931; 38
Bayes T.R. (bibr1-056943451005500203) 1763; 53
Hume D. (bibr7-056943451005500203) 1776
bibr5-056943451005500203
Markowitz H.M. (bibr10-056943451005500203) 1952; 7
Von Neumann J. (bibr16-056943451005500203) 1944
James William (bibr8-056943451005500203) 1902
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SubjectTerms Ants
Approximation
Bayes rule
Bayesian analysis
Decision making
Economic theory
Expected utility
Humans
Hypotheses
Kitchens
Low frequencies
Newtons law of cooling
Philosophy
Probability
Radio
Radio waves
Utility functions
Variance analysis
Title GOD, ANTS AND THOMAS BAYES
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