GOD, ANTS AND THOMAS BAYES

By and large the author finds that the attempt to reconcile apparently conflicting beliefs is a driving force for pondering and, sometimes, for discovery. He concluded that, for many utility functions, if probability distributions are not too spread out, then a quadratic approximation fits quite wel...

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Bibliographic Details
Published inThe American Economist (New York, N.Y. 1960) Vol. 55; no. 2; pp. 5 - 13
Main Author Markowitz, Harry M.
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published Los Angeles, CA Omicron Delta Epsilon 22.09.2010
SAGE Publications
Sage Publications, Inc
SAGE PUBLICATIONS, INC
Subjects
Ants
Approximation
Bayes rule
Bayesian analysis
Decision making
Economic theory
Expected utility
Humans
Hypotheses
Kitchens
Low frequencies
Newtons law of cooling
Philosophy
Probability
Radio
Radio waves
Utility functions
Variance analysis
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Summary:By and large the author finds that the attempt to reconcile apparently conflicting beliefs is a driving force for pondering and, sometimes, for discovery. He concluded that, for many utility functions, if probability distributions are not too spread out, then a quadratic approximation fits quite well. In that case the mean-variance approximation to expected utility is quite good -- no matter what the shape of the distribution. This article will not discuss the application of mean-variance analysis to investment decisions, or Operations Research techniques he has developed for other practical decision problems. Rather, it will review Bayesanism as put forth by L. J. Savage; tell readers how the author knows he is a Bayesian; and apply Bayesianism to philosophical questions such as: Is there a God and, if so what is He, She or It like?
ISSN:0569-4345
2328-1235
DOI:10.1177/056943451005500203