Recurrence and prognostic model for identifying patients at risk for esophageal cancer after surgery
The aim of this study was to construct a risk model to assess overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) in patients with esophageal cancer (EC) after surgery. A total of 872 consecutive EC patients who had undergone surgery between February 2009 and October 2012 were retrospectively anal...
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| Published in | Cancer management and research Vol. 10; pp. 6109 - 6120 |
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| Main Authors | , , , , , , |
| Format | Journal Article |
| Language | English |
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Dove Medical Press Limited
01.01.2018
Taylor & Francis Ltd Dove Medical Press |
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| Abstract | The aim of this study was to construct a risk model to assess overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) in patients with esophageal cancer (EC) after surgery.
A total of 872 consecutive EC patients who had undergone surgery between February 2009 and October 2012 were retrospectively analyzed. The cutoff for risk value (RV) was inferred by receiver operating characteristic curves and the Youden index. A log-rank test was used to compare the survival curves, and a Cox regression analysis was performed to clarify the significant prognostic factors.
The area under the curve was 0.688 for OS and 0.645 for DFS. The survival rates were 69.4% (259/373) and 39.1% (195/499), and the rates of recurrence were 19.2% (70/364) and 27.6% (132/479), respectively, for RV<0.218 and RV≥0.218 (
=78.83,
<0.001;
=9.07,
=0.003; respectively). A multivariate Cox regression analysis identified cases suffering from higher overall mortalities with RV≥0.218 compared to RV<0.218 (HR=1.45; 95% CI, 1.21-2.02;
=0.015); similar results were also found for DFS (HR=1.38; 95% CI, 1.03-1.86;
=0.033). Kaplan-Meier survival curves showed that cases with RV<0.218 had better OS and DFS than cases with RV≥0.218 (log rank = 75.80,
<0.001; log rank = 24.78,
<0.001).
This model could be applied to an integrated assessment of recurrence and prognostic risk after the surgical treatment of EC. |
|---|---|
| AbstractList | The aim of this study was to construct a risk model to assess overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) in patients with esophageal cancer (EC) after surgery.
A total of 872 consecutive EC patients who had undergone surgery between February 2009 and October 2012 were retrospectively analyzed. The cutoff for risk value (RV) was inferred by receiver operating characteristic curves and the Youden index. A log-rank test was used to compare the survival curves, and a Cox regression analysis was performed to clarify the significant prognostic factors.
The area under the curve was 0.688 for OS and 0.645 for DFS. The survival rates were 69.4% (259/373) and 39.1% (195/499), and the rates of recurrence were 19.2% (70/364) and 27.6% (132/479), respectively, for RV<0.218 and RV≥0.218 (
=78.83,
<0.001;
=9.07,
=0.003; respectively). A multivariate Cox regression analysis identified cases suffering from higher overall mortalities with RV≥0.218 compared to RV<0.218 (HR=1.45; 95% CI, 1.21-2.02;
=0.015); similar results were also found for DFS (HR=1.38; 95% CI, 1.03-1.86;
=0.033). Kaplan-Meier survival curves showed that cases with RV<0.218 had better OS and DFS than cases with RV≥0.218 (log rank = 75.80,
<0.001; log rank = 24.78,
<0.001).
This model could be applied to an integrated assessment of recurrence and prognostic risk after the surgical treatment of EC. Objective: The aim of this study was to construct a risk model to assess overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) in patients with esophageal cancer (EC) after surgery. Patients and methods: A total of 872 consecutive EC patients who had undergone surgery between February 2009 and October 2012 were retrospectively analyzed. The cutoff for risk value (RV) was inferred by receiver operating characteristic curves and the Youden index. A log-rank test was used to compare the survival curves, and a Cox regression analysis was performed to clarify the significant prognostic factors. Results: The area under the curve was 0.688 for OS and 0.645 for DFS. The survival rates were 69.4% (259/373) and 39.1% (195/499), and the rates of recurrence were 19.2% (70/364) and 27.6% (132/479), respectively, for RV<0.218 and RV≥0.218 (Χ2=78.83, P<0.001; Χ2=9.07, P=0.003; respectively). A multivariate Cox regression analysis identified cases suffering from higher overall mortalities with RV≥0.218 compared to RV<0.218 (HR=1.45; 95% CI, 1.21–2.02; P=0.015); similar results were also found for DFS (HR=1.38; 95% CI, 1.03–1.86; P=0.033). Kaplan–Meier survival curves showed that cases with RV<0.218 had better OS and DFS than cases with RV≥0.218 (log rank = 75.80, P<0.001; log rank = 24.78, P<0.001). Conclusion: This model could be applied to an integrated assessment of recurrence and prognostic risk after the surgical treatment of EC. Objective: The aim of this study was to construct a risk model to assess overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) in patients with esophageal cancer (EC) after surgery. Patients and methods: A total of 872 consecutive EC patients who had undergone surgery between February 2009 and October 2012 were retrospectively analyzed. The cutoff for risk value (RV) was inferred by receiver operating characteristic curves and the Youden index. A log-rank test was used to compare the survival curves, and a Cox regression analysis was performed to clarify the significant prognostic factors. Results: The area under the curve was 0.688 for OS and 0.645 for DFS. The survival rates were 69.4% (259/373) and 39.1% (195/499), and the rates of recurrence were 19.2% (70/364) and 27.6% (132/479), respectively, for RV<0.218 and RV[greater than or equal to]0.218 ([chi square]=78.83, P<0.001; / (2) =9.07, P=0.003; respectively). A multivariate Cox regression analysis identified cases suffering from Higher overall mortalities with RV[greater than or equal to]0.218 compared to RV<0.218 (HR=1.45; 95% CI, 1.21-2.02; P=0.015); similar results were also found for DFS (HR=1.38; 95% CI, 1.03-1.86; P=0.033). Kaplan-Meier survival curves showed that cases with RV<0.218 had better OS and DFS than cases with RV[greater than or equal to]0.218 (log rank = 75.80, P<0.001; log rank = 24.78, P<0.001). Conclusion: This model could be applied to an integrated assessment of recurrence and prognostic risk after the surgical treatment of EC. Keywords: esophageal cancer, surgery, recurrence, prognosis, model The aim of this study was to construct a risk model to assess overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) in patients with esophageal cancer (EC) after surgery.OBJECTIVEThe aim of this study was to construct a risk model to assess overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) in patients with esophageal cancer (EC) after surgery.A total of 872 consecutive EC patients who had undergone surgery between February 2009 and October 2012 were retrospectively analyzed. The cutoff for risk value (RV) was inferred by receiver operating characteristic curves and the Youden index. A log-rank test was used to compare the survival curves, and a Cox regression analysis was performed to clarify the significant prognostic factors.PATIENTS AND METHODSA total of 872 consecutive EC patients who had undergone surgery between February 2009 and October 2012 were retrospectively analyzed. The cutoff for risk value (RV) was inferred by receiver operating characteristic curves and the Youden index. A log-rank test was used to compare the survival curves, and a Cox regression analysis was performed to clarify the significant prognostic factors.The area under the curve was 0.688 for OS and 0.645 for DFS. The survival rates were 69.4% (259/373) and 39.1% (195/499), and the rates of recurrence were 19.2% (70/364) and 27.6% (132/479), respectively, for RV<0.218 and RV≥0.218 (c 2=78.83, P<0.001; c 2=9.07, P=0.003; respectively). A multivariate Cox regression analysis identified cases suffering from higher overall mortalities with RV≥0.218 compared to RV<0.218 (HR=1.45; 95% CI, 1.21-2.02; P=0.015); similar results were also found for DFS (HR=1.38; 95% CI, 1.03-1.86; P=0.033). Kaplan-Meier survival curves showed that cases with RV<0.218 had better OS and DFS than cases with RV≥0.218 (log rank = 75.80, P<0.001; log rank = 24.78, P<0.001).RESULTSThe area under the curve was 0.688 for OS and 0.645 for DFS. The survival rates were 69.4% (259/373) and 39.1% (195/499), and the rates of recurrence were 19.2% (70/364) and 27.6% (132/479), respectively, for RV<0.218 and RV≥0.218 (c 2=78.83, P<0.001; c 2=9.07, P=0.003; respectively). A multivariate Cox regression analysis identified cases suffering from higher overall mortalities with RV≥0.218 compared to RV<0.218 (HR=1.45; 95% CI, 1.21-2.02; P=0.015); similar results were also found for DFS (HR=1.38; 95% CI, 1.03-1.86; P=0.033). Kaplan-Meier survival curves showed that cases with RV<0.218 had better OS and DFS than cases with RV≥0.218 (log rank = 75.80, P<0.001; log rank = 24.78, P<0.001).This model could be applied to an integrated assessment of recurrence and prognostic risk after the surgical treatment of EC.CONCLUSIONThis model could be applied to an integrated assessment of recurrence and prognostic risk after the surgical treatment of EC. Dongni Chen,1,* Weidong Wang,1,* Youfang Chen,1 Jia Hu,1 Men Yang,2 Junxian Mo,3 Zhesheng Wen1 1Department of Thoracic Oncology, State Key Laboratory of Oncology in South China, Collaborative Innovation Center for Cancer Medicine, Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center, Guangzhou 510060, China; 2Department of Cardio-Thoracic Surgery, The Eighth Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University, Shenzhen, Guangdong 518000, China; 3Department of Cardio-Thoracic Surgery, The Seventh Affiliated Hospital of Guangxi Medical University, Wuzhou, Guangxi 543000, China *These authors contributed equally to this work Objective: The aim of this study was to construct a risk model to assess overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) in patients with esophageal cancer (EC) after surgery.Patients and methods: A total of 872 consecutive EC patients who had undergone surgery between February 2009 and October 2012 were retrospectively analyzed. The cutoff for risk value (RV) was inferred by receiver operating characteristic curves and the Youden index. A log-rank test was used to compare the survival curves, and a Cox regression analysis was performed to clarify the significant prognostic factors.Results: The area under the curve was 0.688 for OS and 0.645 for DFS. The survival rates were 69.4% (259/373) and 39.1% (195/499), and the rates of recurrence were 19.2% (70/364) and 27.6% (132/479), respectively, for RV<0.218 and RV≥0.218 (Χ2=78.83, P<0.001; Χ2=9.07, P=0.003; respectively). A multivariate Cox regression analysis identified cases suffering from higher overall mortalities with RV≥0.218 compared to RV<0.218 (HR=1.45; 95% CI, 1.21-2.02; P=0.015); similar results were also found for DFS (HR=1.38; 95% CI, 1.03-1.86; P=0.033). Kaplan-Meier survival curves showed that cases with RV<0.218 had better OS and DFS than cases with RV≥0.218 (log rank = 75.80, P<0.001; log rank = 24.78, P<0.001).Conclusion: This model could be applied to an integrated assessment of recurrence and prognostic risk after the surgical treatment of EC. Keywords: esophageal cancer, surgery, recurrence, prognosis, model |
| Audience | Academic |
| Author | Hu, Jia Wen, Zhesheng Wang, Weidong Yang, Men Chen, Dongni Chen, Youfang Mo, Junxian |
| AuthorAffiliation | 3 Department of Cardio-Thoracic Surgery, The Seventh Affiliated Hospital of Guangxi Medical University, Wuzhou, Guangxi 543000, China 1 Department of Thoracic Oncology, State Key Laboratory of Oncology in South China, Collaborative Innovation Center for Cancer Medicine, Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center, Guangzhou 510060, China, wenzhesheng@163.com 2 Department of Cardio-Thoracic Surgery, The Eighth Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University, Shenzhen, Guangdong 518000, China |
| AuthorAffiliation_xml | – name: 2 Department of Cardio-Thoracic Surgery, The Eighth Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University, Shenzhen, Guangdong 518000, China – name: 3 Department of Cardio-Thoracic Surgery, The Seventh Affiliated Hospital of Guangxi Medical University, Wuzhou, Guangxi 543000, China – name: 1 Department of Thoracic Oncology, State Key Laboratory of Oncology in South China, Collaborative Innovation Center for Cancer Medicine, Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center, Guangzhou 510060, China, wenzhesheng@163.com |
| Author_xml | – sequence: 1 givenname: Dongni surname: Chen fullname: Chen, Dongni – sequence: 2 givenname: Weidong surname: Wang fullname: Wang, Weidong – sequence: 3 givenname: Youfang surname: Chen fullname: Chen, Youfang – sequence: 4 givenname: Jia surname: Hu fullname: Hu, Jia – sequence: 5 givenname: Men orcidid: 0000-0001-9677-5123 surname: Yang fullname: Yang, Men – sequence: 6 givenname: Junxian surname: Mo fullname: Mo, Junxian – sequence: 7 givenname: Zhesheng orcidid: 0000-0002-0065-7542 surname: Wen fullname: Wen, Zhesheng |
| BackLink | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30538559$$D View this record in MEDLINE/PubMed |
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| CitedBy_id | crossref_primary_10_1093_dote_doab020 crossref_primary_10_3389_fonc_2020_01452 crossref_primary_10_3233_CBM_190058 crossref_primary_10_1007_s11605_023_05775_w |
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| Snippet | The aim of this study was to construct a risk model to assess overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) in patients with esophageal cancer (EC)... Objective: The aim of this study was to construct a risk model to assess overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) in patients with esophageal... Dongni Chen,1,* Weidong Wang,1,* Youfang Chen,1 Jia Hu,1 Men Yang,2 Junxian Mo,3 Zhesheng Wen1 1Department of Thoracic Oncology, State Key Laboratory of... |
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| SubjectTerms | Biopsy Cancer patients Cancer therapies Care and treatment Chemotherapy Collaboration Committees Endoscopy Esophageal cancer Health aspects Lymphatic system Medical prognosis Metastasis Migration Mortality Original Research Patients Prognosis Radiation therapy Recurrence Recurrence (Disease) Regression analysis Risk assessment Studies Surgery Thoracic surgery |
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| Title | Recurrence and prognostic model for identifying patients at risk for esophageal cancer after surgery |
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