Changes in notifiable infectious disease incidence in China during the COVID-19 pandemic

• Published in: Nature communications Vol. 12; no. 1; p. 6923
• Main Authors: Geng, Meng-Jie, Zhang, Hai-Yang, Yu, Lin-Jie, Lv, Chen-Long, Wang, Tao, Che, Tian-Le, Xu, Qiang, Jiang, Bao-Gui, Chen, Jin-Jin, Hay, Simon I., Li, Zhong-Jie, Gao, George F., Wang, Li-Ping, Yang, Yang, Fang, Li-Qun, Liu, Wei
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: London Nature Publishing Group UK 26.11.2021; Nature Publishing Group; Nature Portfolio
• Subjects: 692/699/255/1318; 692/699/255/2514; 692/700/478/174; Coronaviruses; COVID-19; Disease transmission; Hand-foot-and-mouth disease; Human motion; Humanities and Social Sciences; Infectious diseases; Mathematical models; multidisciplinary; Pandemics; Public health; Respiratory diseases; Science; Science (multidisciplinary); Statistical models; Vector-borne diseases; Viral diseases; Zoonoses; China
• ISSN: 2041-1723; 2041-1723
• DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-27292-7

Nationwide nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) have been effective at mitigating the spread of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19), but their broad impact on other diseases remains under-investigated. Here we report an ecological analysis comparing the incidence of 31 major notifiable infectious diseases in China in 2020 to the average level during 2014-2019, controlling for temporal phases defined by NPI intensity levels. Respiratory diseases and gastrointestinal or enteroviral diseases declined more than sexually transmitted or bloodborne diseases and vector-borne or zoonotic diseases. Early pandemic phases with more stringent NPIs were associated with greater reductions in disease incidence. Non-respiratory diseases, such as hand, foot and mouth disease, rebounded substantially towards the end of the year 2020 as the NPIs were relaxed. Statistical modeling analyses confirm that strong NPIs were associated with a broad mitigation effect on communicable diseases, but resurgence of non-respiratory diseases should be expected when the NPIs, especially restrictions of human movement and gathering, become less stringent. Non-pharmaceutical interventions implemented to mitigate COVID-19 transmission are likely to have impacted spread of other infectious diseases. Here, the authors investigate changes in the incidence of 31 notifiable infectious diseases using surveillance data from China.