Development and validation of a predictive scoring system for in-hospital mortality in COVID-19 Egyptian patients: a retrospective study

SARS-CoV-2 virus has rapidly spread worldwide since December 2019, causing COVID-19 disease. In-hospital mortality is a common indicator for evaluating treatment outcomes. Therefore, the developing and validating a simple score system from observational data could assist in modulating the management...

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Published inScientific reports Vol. 12; no. 1; pp. 22352 - 11
Main Authors Elgohary, Mohamed AbdelSalam, Ali, Asmaa, El-Masry, Thanaa A., Faidah, Hani, Bantun, Farkad, Elkholy, Ahmad M., Fahim, Jaklin S., Elgamal, Nabila N., Mohamed, Mohamed Emam, Seadawy, Mohamed G., Helal, Amro M., De Waard, Michel, Shishtawy, Hesham M., El-Bouseary, Maisra M.
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published London Nature Publishing Group UK 26.12.2022
Nature Publishing Group
Nature Portfolio
Subjects
631/326
692/308
692/499
692/53
692/700
Computed tomography
Coronaviruses
COVID-19
Egypt - epidemiology
Hospital Mortality
Humanities and Social Sciences
Humans
Leukocytes (neutrophilic)
Lymphocytes
Middle Aged
Mortality
multidisciplinary
Patients
Pneumonia
Prognosis
Retrospective Studies
SARS-CoV-2
Science
Science (multidisciplinary)
Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2
Egypt
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Abstract SARS-CoV-2 virus has rapidly spread worldwide since December 2019, causing COVID-19 disease. In-hospital mortality is a common indicator for evaluating treatment outcomes. Therefore, the developing and validating a simple score system from observational data could assist in modulating the management procedures. A retrospective cohort study included all data records of patients with positive PCR for SARS-CoV-2. The factors that associated with mortality were analyzed, then allocation of potential predictors of mortality was executed using different logistic regression modeling, subsequently scoring system was developed from the most weighted predictors. The mortality rate of patients with COVID-19 pneumonia was 28.5% and 28.74%, respectively. The most significant factors that affected in-hospital mortality were old age (> 60 years), delay in hospital admission (> 4 days), high neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio “NLR” (> 3); higher computed tomography severity score; and CT-SS (> 20), in addition to using remdesivir and tocilizumab in the treatment protocol (P < 0.001 for all). The validity of the newly performed score was significant; the AUC was 85%, P < 0.001, and its prognostic utility was good; the AUC was 75%, P < 0.001. The prognostic utility of newly developed score system (EGY.Score) was excellent and could be used to adjust the treatment strategy of highly at-risk patients with COVID-19 pneumonia.
AbstractList SARS-CoV-2 virus has rapidly spread worldwide since December 2019, causing COVID-19 disease. In-hospital mortality is a common indicator for evaluating treatment outcomes. Therefore, the developing and validating a simple score system from observational data could assist in modulating the management procedures. A retrospective cohort study included all data records of patients with positive PCR for SARS-CoV-2. The factors that associated with mortality were analyzed, then allocation of potential predictors of mortality was executed using different logistic regression modeling, subsequently scoring system was developed from the most weighted predictors. The mortality rate of patients with COVID-19 pneumonia was 28.5% and 28.74%, respectively. The most significant factors that affected in-hospital mortality were old age (> 60 years), delay in hospital admission (> 4 days), high neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio “NLR” (> 3); higher computed tomography severity score; and CT-SS (> 20), in addition to using remdesivir and tocilizumab in the treatment protocol (P < 0.001 for all). The validity of the newly performed score was significant; the AUC was 85%, P < 0.001, and its prognostic utility was good; the AUC was 75%, P < 0.001. The prognostic utility of newly developed score system (EGY.Score) was excellent and could be used to adjust the treatment strategy of highly at-risk patients with COVID-19 pneumonia.
Abstract SARS-CoV-2 virus has rapidly spread worldwide since December 2019, causing COVID-19 disease. In-hospital mortality is a common indicator for evaluating treatment outcomes. Therefore, the developing and validating a simple score system from observational data could assist in modulating the management procedures. A retrospective cohort study included all data records of patients with positive PCR for SARS-CoV-2. The factors that associated with mortality were analyzed, then allocation of potential predictors of mortality was executed using different logistic regression modeling, subsequently scoring system was developed from the most weighted predictors. The mortality rate of patients with COVID-19 pneumonia was 28.5% and 28.74%, respectively. The most significant factors that affected in-hospital mortality were old age (> 60 years), delay in hospital admission (> 4 days), high neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio “NLR” (> 3); higher computed tomography severity score; and CT-SS (> 20), in addition to using remdesivir and tocilizumab in the treatment protocol (P < 0.001 for all). The validity of the newly performed score was significant; the AUC was 85%, P < 0.001, and its prognostic utility was good; the AUC was 75%, P < 0.001. The prognostic utility of newly developed score system (EGY.Score) was excellent and could be used to adjust the treatment strategy of highly at-risk patients with COVID-19 pneumonia.
Abstract SARS-CoV-2 virus has rapidly spread worldwide since December 2019, causing COVID-19 disease. In-hospital mortality is a common indicator for evaluating treatment outcomes. Therefore, the developing and validating a simple score system from observational data could assist in modulating the management procedures. A retrospective cohort study included all data records of patients with positive PCR for SARS-CoV-2. The factors that associated with mortality were analyzed, then allocation of potential predictors of mortality was executed using different logistic regression modeling, subsequently scoring system was developed from the most weighted predictors. The mortality rate of patients with COVID-19 pneumonia was 28.5% and 28.74%, respectively. The most significant factors that affected in-hospital mortality were old age (> 60 years), delay in hospital admission (> 4 days), high neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio “NLR” (> 3); higher computed tomography severity score; and CT-SS (> 20), in addition to using remdesivir and tocilizumab in the treatment protocol (P < 0.001 for all). The validity of the newly performed score was significant; the AUC was 85%, P < 0.001, and its prognostic utility was good; the AUC was 75%, P < 0.001. The prognostic utility of newly developed score system (EGY.Score) was excellent and could be used to adjust the treatment strategy of highly at-risk patients with COVID-19 pneumonia.
SARS-CoV-2 virus has rapidly spread worldwide since December 2019, causing COVID-19 disease. In-hospital mortality is a common indicator for evaluating treatment outcomes. Therefore, the developing and validating a simple score system from observational data could assist in modulating the management procedures. A retrospective cohort study included all data records of patients with positive PCR for SARS-CoV-2. The factors that associated with mortality were analyzed, then allocation of potential predictors of mortality was executed using different logistic regression modeling, subsequently scoring system was developed from the most weighted predictors. The mortality rate of patients with COVID-19 pneumonia was 28.5% and 28.74%, respectively. The most significant factors that affected in-hospital mortality were old age (> 60 years), delay in hospital admission (> 4 days), high neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio “NLR” (> 3); higher computed tomography severity score; and CT-SS (> 20), in addition to using remdesivir and tocilizumab in the treatment protocol (P < 0.001 for all). The validity of the newly performed score was significant; the AUC was 85%, P < 0.001, and its prognostic utility was good; the AUC was 75%, P < 0.001. The prognostic utility of newly developed score system (EGY.Score) was excellent and could be used to adjust the treatment strategy of highly at-risk patients with COVID-19 pneumonia.
ArticleNumber 22352
Author Fahim, Jaklin S.
Elkholy, Ahmad M.
El-Bouseary, Maisra M.
De Waard, Michel
Elgamal, Nabila N.
Faidah, Hani
El-Masry, Thanaa A.
Mohamed, Mohamed Emam
Elgohary, Mohamed AbdelSalam
Helal, Amro M.
Bantun, Farkad
Seadawy, Mohamed G.
Shishtawy, Hesham M.
Ali, Asmaa
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  givenname: Nabila N.
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  organization: Department of Tropical Medicine, Almaza Military Fever Hospital
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  givenname: Mohamed Emam
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  organization: Department of Public Health, Almaza Military Fever Hospital
– sequence: 12
  givenname: Michel
  surname: De Waard
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  organization: Smartox Biotechnology, L’institut du Thorax, INSERM, CNRS, Univ Nantes, Université de Nice Sophia-Antipolis, LabEx “Ion Channels, Science & Therapeutics”
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  givenname: Hesham M.
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  surname: El-Bouseary
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  organization: Department of Pharmaceutical Microbiology, Faculty of Pharmacy, Tanta University
BackLink https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36572690$$D View this record in MEDLINE/PubMed
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Snippet SARS-CoV-2 virus has rapidly spread worldwide since December 2019, causing COVID-19 disease. In-hospital mortality is a common indicator for evaluating...
Abstract SARS-CoV-2 virus has rapidly spread worldwide since December 2019, causing COVID-19 disease. In-hospital mortality is a common indicator for...
Abstract SARS-CoV-2 virus has rapidly spread worldwide since December 2019, causing COVID-19 disease. In-hospital mortality is a common indicator for...
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SubjectTerms 631/326
692/308
692/499
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692/700
Computed tomography
Coronaviruses
COVID-19
Egypt - epidemiology
Hospital Mortality
Humanities and Social Sciences
Humans
Leukocytes (neutrophilic)
Lymphocytes
Middle Aged
Mortality
multidisciplinary
Patients
Pneumonia
Prognosis
Retrospective Studies
SARS-CoV-2
Science
Science (multidisciplinary)
Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2
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Title Development and validation of a predictive scoring system for in-hospital mortality in COVID-19 Egyptian patients: a retrospective study
URI https://link.springer.com/article/10.1038/s41598-022-26471-w
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36572690
https://www.proquest.com/docview/2758176740
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/PMC9791155
https://doaj.org/article/b3933c6d3bfb424b848d07d1029a7725
Volume 12
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