Future changes of the terrestrial ecosystem based on a dynamic vegetation model driven with RCP8.5 climate projections from 19 GCMs

• Published in: Climatic change Vol. 127; no. 2; pp. 257 - 271
• Main Authors: Yu, Miao, Wang, Guiling, Parr, Dana, Ahmed, Kazi Farzan
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Dordrecht Springer-Verlag 01.11.2014; Springer Netherlands; Springer; Springer Nature B.V
• Subjects: Animal and plant ecology; Animal, plant and microbial ecology; Asia; Atmospheric Sciences; Biogeochemistry; Biogeography; Biological and medical sciences; Carbon; Carbon dioxide; Central Africa; Climate; Climate change; Climate Change/Climate Change Impacts; Climate models; Climatology. Bioclimatology. Climate change; Deciduous trees; Drought; Earth and Environmental Science; Earth Sciences; Earth, ocean, space; Environmental impact; Eurasia; Europe; Exact sciences and technology; External geophysics; Forests; Fundamental and applied biological sciences. Psychology; Global climate; Grasses; Laboratories; latitude; leaf area index; Meteorology; Natural vegetation; Nitrogen; North America; Projection; shrubs; Synecology; Temperate zones; Terrestrial ecosystems; trees; Tropical environments; Tropics; uncertainty; Vegetation; Vegetation changes; Water use; Water use efficiency; Central Africa; Asia; Eurasia; North America; Europe; South America, Amazon R; Africa; Vegetation Distribution; Tree Coverage; Leaf Area Index; Equilibrium Approach; Dormant Season; Terrestrial environment; Multimodel; Century 21st; General circulation models; climate warming; Climate models; digital simulation; Vegetation dynamics; Climate prediction; Bioclimatology; global change; Representative concentration pathway; ecosystems; Dynamic model; primary productivity; climate change; Leaf area index
• DOI: 10.1007/s10584-014-1249-2
• ISSN: 0165-0009

Future changes of terrestrial ecosystems due to changes in atmospheric CO₂ concentration and climate are subject to a large degree of uncertainty, especially for vegetation in the Tropics. Here, we evaluate the natural vegetation response to projected future changes using an improved version of a dynamic vegetation model (CLM-CN-DV) driven with climate change projections from 19 global climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). The simulated equilibrium vegetation distribution under historical climate (1981–2000) has been compared with that under the projected future climate (2081–2100) scenario for Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) to qualitatively assess how natural potential vegetation might change in the future. With one outlier excluded, the ensemble average of vegetation changes corresponding to climates of 18 GCMs shows a poleward shift of forests in northern Eurasia and North America, which is consistent with findings from previous studies. It also shows a general “upgrade” of vegetation type in the Tropics and most of the temperate zones, in the form of deciduous trees and shrubs taking over C3 grass in Europe and broadleaf deciduous trees taking over C4 grasses in Central Africa and the Amazon. LAI and NPP are projected to increase in the high latitudes, southeastern Asia, southeastern North America, and Central Africa. This results from CO₂ fertilization, enhanced water use efficiency, and in the extra-tropics warming. However, both LAI and NPP are projected to decrease in the Amazon due to drought. The competing impacts of climate change and CO₂ fertilization lead to large uncertainties in the projection of future vegetation changes in the Tropics.