Multi-temporal analysis of past and future land cover change in the highly urbanized state of Selangor, Malaysia

Background This study analysed the multi-temporal trend in land cover, and modelled a future scenario of land cover for the year 2030 in the highly urbanized state of Selangor, Malaysia. The study used a Decision Forest-Markov chain model in the land change modeller (LCM) tool of TerrSet software. L...

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Published inEcological processes Vol. 11; no. 1; p. 2
Main Authors Azari, Majid, Billa, Lawal, Chan, Andy
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published Berlin/Heidelberg Springer Berlin Heidelberg 24.01.2022
Springer Nature B.V
SpringerOpen
Subjects
Agricultural land
Components
computer software
Decision making
Decision trees
Earth and Environmental Science
Environment
False alarms
issues and policy
Land change modeller
Land cover
Land cover modelling
Land use and land cover
Malaysia
Markov chain model
Markov chains
Mathematical models
model validation
Natural vegetation
Selangor
Software
stakeholders
Total organic carbon
Urban planning
urbanization
Vegetation
Selangor Malaysia
Malaysia
Land cover modelling
Malaysia
Land use and land cover
Markov chain model
Land change modeller
Selangor
Online AccessGet full text
ISSN2192-1709
2192-1709
DOI10.1186/s13717-021-00350-0

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Abstract Background This study analysed the multi-temporal trend in land cover, and modelled a future scenario of land cover for the year 2030 in the highly urbanized state of Selangor, Malaysia. The study used a Decision Forest-Markov chain model in the land change modeller (LCM) tool of TerrSet software. Land cover maps of 1999, 2006 and 2017 were classified into 5 classes, namely water, natural vegetation, agriculture, built-up land and cleared land. A simulated land cover map of 2017 was validated against the actual land cover map 2017. The Area Under the Curve (AUC) value of 0.84 of Total Operating Characteristics (TOC) and higher percentage of components of agreement (Hits + Correct rejection) compared to components of disagreement (Misses + False alarm + Wrong hits) indicated successful validation of the model. Results The results showed between the years 1999 to 2017 there was an increase in built-up land cover of 608.8 km 2 (7.5%), and agricultural land 285.5 km 2 (3.5%), whereas natural vegetation decreased by 831.8 km 2 (10.2%). The simulated land cover map of 2030 showed a continuation of this trend, where built-up area is estimated to increase by 723 km 2 (8.9%), and agricultural land is estimated to increase by 57.2 km 2 (0.7%), leading to a decrease of natural vegetation by 663.9 km 2 (8.1%) for the period 2017 to 2030. The spatial trend of land cover change shows built-up areas mostly located in central Selangor where the highly urbanized and populated cities of Kuala Lumpur and Putrajaya and the Klang valley are located. Conclusion The future land cover modelling indicates that built-up expansion mostly takes place at edges of existing urban boundaries. The results of this study can be used by policy makers, urban planners and other stakeholders for future decision making and city planning.
AbstractList BackgroundThis study analysed the multi-temporal trend in land cover, and modelled a future scenario of land cover for the year 2030 in the highly urbanized state of Selangor, Malaysia. The study used a Decision Forest-Markov chain model in the land change modeller (LCM) tool of TerrSet software. Land cover maps of 1999, 2006 and 2017 were classified into 5 classes, namely water, natural vegetation, agriculture, built-up land and cleared land. A simulated land cover map of 2017 was validated against the actual land cover map 2017. The Area Under the Curve (AUC) value of 0.84 of Total Operating Characteristics (TOC) and higher percentage of components of agreement (Hits + Correct rejection) compared to components of disagreement (Misses + False alarm + Wrong hits) indicated successful validation of the model.ResultsThe results showed between the years 1999 to 2017 there was an increase in built-up land cover of 608.8 km2 (7.5%), and agricultural land 285.5 km2 (3.5%), whereas natural vegetation decreased by 831.8 km2 (10.2%). The simulated land cover map of 2030 showed a continuation of this trend, where built-up area is estimated to increase by 723 km2 (8.9%), and agricultural land is estimated to increase by 57.2 km2 (0.7%), leading to a decrease of natural vegetation by 663.9 km2 (8.1%) for the period 2017 to 2030. The spatial trend of land cover change shows built-up areas mostly located in central Selangor where the highly urbanized and populated cities of Kuala Lumpur and Putrajaya and the Klang valley are located.ConclusionThe future land cover modelling indicates that built-up expansion mostly takes place at edges of existing urban boundaries. The results of this study can be used by policy makers, urban planners and other stakeholders for future decision making and city planning.
Background This study analysed the multi-temporal trend in land cover, and modelled a future scenario of land cover for the year 2030 in the highly urbanized state of Selangor, Malaysia. The study used a Decision Forest-Markov chain model in the land change modeller (LCM) tool of TerrSet software. Land cover maps of 1999, 2006 and 2017 were classified into 5 classes, namely water, natural vegetation, agriculture, built-up land and cleared land. A simulated land cover map of 2017 was validated against the actual land cover map 2017. The Area Under the Curve (AUC) value of 0.84 of Total Operating Characteristics (TOC) and higher percentage of components of agreement (Hits + Correct rejection) compared to components of disagreement (Misses + False alarm + Wrong hits) indicated successful validation of the model. Results The results showed between the years 1999 to 2017 there was an increase in built-up land cover of 608.8 km 2 (7.5%), and agricultural land 285.5 km 2 (3.5%), whereas natural vegetation decreased by 831.8 km 2 (10.2%). The simulated land cover map of 2030 showed a continuation of this trend, where built-up area is estimated to increase by 723 km 2 (8.9%), and agricultural land is estimated to increase by 57.2 km 2 (0.7%), leading to a decrease of natural vegetation by 663.9 km 2 (8.1%) for the period 2017 to 2030. The spatial trend of land cover change shows built-up areas mostly located in central Selangor where the highly urbanized and populated cities of Kuala Lumpur and Putrajaya and the Klang valley are located. Conclusion The future land cover modelling indicates that built-up expansion mostly takes place at edges of existing urban boundaries. The results of this study can be used by policy makers, urban planners and other stakeholders for future decision making and city planning.
Abstract Background This study analysed the multi-temporal trend in land cover, and modelled a future scenario of land cover for the year 2030 in the highly urbanized state of Selangor, Malaysia. The study used a Decision Forest-Markov chain model in the land change modeller (LCM) tool of TerrSet software. Land cover maps of 1999, 2006 and 2017 were classified into 5 classes, namely water, natural vegetation, agriculture, built-up land and cleared land. A simulated land cover map of 2017 was validated against the actual land cover map 2017. The Area Under the Curve (AUC) value of 0.84 of Total Operating Characteristics (TOC) and higher percentage of components of agreement (Hits + Correct rejection) compared to components of disagreement (Misses + False alarm + Wrong hits) indicated successful validation of the model. Results The results showed between the years 1999 to 2017 there was an increase in built-up land cover of 608.8 km2 (7.5%), and agricultural land 285.5 km2 (3.5%), whereas natural vegetation decreased by 831.8 km2 (10.2%). The simulated land cover map of 2030 showed a continuation of this trend, where built-up area is estimated to increase by 723 km2 (8.9%), and agricultural land is estimated to increase by 57.2 km2 (0.7%), leading to a decrease of natural vegetation by 663.9 km2 (8.1%) for the period 2017 to 2030. The spatial trend of land cover change shows built-up areas mostly located in central Selangor where the highly urbanized and populated cities of Kuala Lumpur and Putrajaya and the Klang valley are located. Conclusion The future land cover modelling indicates that built-up expansion mostly takes place at edges of existing urban boundaries. The results of this study can be used by policy makers, urban planners and other stakeholders for future decision making and city planning.
BACKGROUND: This study analysed the multi-temporal trend in land cover, and modelled a future scenario of land cover for the year 2030 in the highly urbanized state of Selangor, Malaysia. The study used a Decision Forest-Markov chain model in the land change modeller (LCM) tool of TerrSet software. Land cover maps of 1999, 2006 and 2017 were classified into 5 classes, namely water, natural vegetation, agriculture, built-up land and cleared land. A simulated land cover map of 2017 was validated against the actual land cover map 2017. The Area Under the Curve (AUC) value of 0.84 of Total Operating Characteristics (TOC) and higher percentage of components of agreement (Hits + Correct rejection) compared to components of disagreement (Misses + False alarm + Wrong hits) indicated successful validation of the model. RESULTS: The results showed between the years 1999 to 2017 there was an increase in built-up land cover of 608.8 km² (7.5%), and agricultural land 285.5 km² (3.5%), whereas natural vegetation decreased by 831.8 km² (10.2%). The simulated land cover map of 2030 showed a continuation of this trend, where built-up area is estimated to increase by 723 km² (8.9%), and agricultural land is estimated to increase by 57.2 km² (0.7%), leading to a decrease of natural vegetation by 663.9 km² (8.1%) for the period 2017 to 2030. The spatial trend of land cover change shows built-up areas mostly located in central Selangor where the highly urbanized and populated cities of Kuala Lumpur and Putrajaya and the Klang valley are located. CONCLUSION: The future land cover modelling indicates that built-up expansion mostly takes place at edges of existing urban boundaries. The results of this study can be used by policy makers, urban planners and other stakeholders for future decision making and city planning.
ArticleNumber 2
Author Chan, Andy
Azari, Majid
Billa, Lawal
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  organization: Department of Civil Engineering, University of Nottingham Malaysia
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  surname: Billa
  fullname: Billa, Lawal
  organization: School of Environmental and Geographical Sciences, University of Nottingham Malaysia
– sequence: 3
  givenname: Andy
  surname: Chan
  fullname: Chan, Andy
  organization: Department of Civil Engineering, University of Nottingham Malaysia
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Snippet Background This study analysed the multi-temporal trend in land cover, and modelled a future scenario of land cover for the year 2030 in the highly urbanized...
BackgroundThis study analysed the multi-temporal trend in land cover, and modelled a future scenario of land cover for the year 2030 in the highly urbanized...
BACKGROUND: This study analysed the multi-temporal trend in land cover, and modelled a future scenario of land cover for the year 2030 in the highly urbanized...
Abstract Background This study analysed the multi-temporal trend in land cover, and modelled a future scenario of land cover for the year 2030 in the highly...
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proquest
crossref
springer
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Index Database
Publisher
StartPage 2
SubjectTerms Agricultural land
Components
computer software
Decision making
Decision trees
Earth and Environmental Science
Environment
False alarms
issues and policy
Land change modeller
Land cover
Land cover modelling
Land use and land cover
Malaysia
Markov chain model
Markov chains
Mathematical models
model validation
Natural vegetation
Selangor
Software
stakeholders
Total organic carbon
Urban planning
urbanization
Vegetation
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Title Multi-temporal analysis of past and future land cover change in the highly urbanized state of Selangor, Malaysia
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Volume 11
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