Using the contact network model and Metropolis-Hastings sampling to reconstruct the COVID-19 spread on the “Diamond Princess”
Traditional compartmental models such as SIR (susceptible, infected, recovered) assume that the epidemic transmits in a homogeneous population, but the real contact patterns in epidemics are heterogeneous. Employing a more realistic model that considers heterogeneous contact is consequently necessar...
Saved in:
| Published in | Science bulletin (Beijing) Vol. 65; no. 15; pp. 1297 - 1305 |
|---|---|
| Main Authors | , , |
| Format | Journal Article |
| Language | English |
| Published |
Netherlands
Elsevier B.V
15.08.2020
Science China Press. Published by Elsevier B.V. and Science China Press |
| Subjects | |
| Online Access | Get full text |
Cover
Loading…
| Abstract | Traditional compartmental models such as SIR (susceptible, infected, recovered) assume that the epidemic transmits in a homogeneous population, but the real contact patterns in epidemics are heterogeneous. Employing a more realistic model that considers heterogeneous contact is consequently necessary. Here, we use a contact network to reconstruct unprotected, protected contact, and airborne spread to simulate the two-stages outbreak of COVID-19 (coronavirus disease 2019) on the “Diamond Princess” cruise ship. We employ Bayesian inference and Metropolis-Hastings sampling to estimate the model parameters and quantify the uncertainties by the ensemble simulation technique. During the early epidemic with intensive social contacts, the results reveal that the average transmissibility t was 0.026 and the basic reproductive number R0 was 6.94, triple that in the WHO report, indicating that all people would be infected in one month. The t and R0 decreased to 0.0007 and 0.2 when quarantine was implemented. The reconstruction suggests that diluting the airborne virus concentration in closed settings is useful in addition to isolation, and high-risk susceptible should follow rigorous prevention measures in case exposed. This study can provide useful implications for control and prevention measures for the other cruise ships and closed settings. |
|---|---|
| AbstractList | Traditional compartmental models such as SIR (susceptible, infected, recovered) assume that the epidemic transmits in a homogeneous population, but the real contact patterns in epidemics are heterogeneous. Employing a more realistic model that considers heterogeneous contact is consequently necessary. Here, we use a contact network to reconstruct unprotected, protected contact, and airborne spread to simulate the two-stages outbreak of COVID-19 (coronavirus disease 2019) on the “Diamond Princess” cruise ship. We employ Bayesian inference and Metropolis-Hastings sampling to estimate the model parameters and quantify the uncertainties by the ensemble simulation technique. During the early epidemic with intensive social contacts, the results reveal that the average transmissibility
t
was 0.026 and the basic reproductive number
R
0
was 6.94, triple that in the WHO report, indicating that all people would be infected in one month. The
t
and
R
0
decreased to 0.0007 and 0.2 when quarantine was implemented. The reconstruction suggests that diluting the airborne virus concentration in closed settings is useful in addition to isolation, and high-risk susceptible should follow rigorous prevention measures in case exposed. This study can provide useful implications for control and prevention measures for the other cruise ships and closed settings. Traditional compartmental models such as SIR (susceptible, infected, recovered) assume that the epidemic transmits in a homogeneous population, but the real contact patterns in epidemics are heterogeneous. Employing a more realistic model that considers heterogeneous contact is consequently necessary. Here, we use a contact network to reconstruct unprotected, protected contact, and airborne spread to simulate the two-stages outbreak of COVID-19 (coronavirus disease 2019) on the “Diamond Princess” cruise ship. We employ Bayesian inference and Metropolis-Hastings sampling to estimate the model parameters and quantify the uncertainties by the ensemble simulation technique. During the early epidemic with intensive social contacts, the results reveal that the average transmissibility t was 0.026 and the basic reproductive number R0 was 6.94, triple that in the WHO report, indicating that all people would be infected in one month. The t and R0 decreased to 0.0007 and 0.2 when quarantine was implemented. The reconstruction suggests that diluting the airborne virus concentration in closed settings is useful in addition to isolation, and high-risk susceptible should follow rigorous prevention measures in case exposed. This study can provide useful implications for control and prevention measures for the other cruise ships and closed settings. Traditional compartmental models such as SIR (susceptible, infected, recovered) assume that the epidemic transmits in a homogeneous population, but the real contact patterns in epidemics are heterogeneous. Employing a more realistic model that considers heterogeneous contact is consequently necessary. Here, we use a contact network to reconstruct unprotected, protected contact, and airborne spread to simulate the two-stages outbreak of COVID-19 (coronavirus disease 2019) on the "Diamond Princess" cruise ship. We employ Bayesian inference and Metropolis-Hastings sampling to estimate the model parameters and quantify the uncertainties by the ensemble simulation technique. During the early epidemic with intensive social contacts, the results reveal that the average transmissibility was 0.026 and the basic reproductive number was 6.94, triple that in the WHO report, indicating that all people would be infected in one month. The and decreased to 0.0007 and 0.2 when quarantine was implemented. The reconstruction suggests that diluting the airborne virus concentration in closed settings is useful in addition to isolation, and high-risk susceptible should follow rigorous prevention measures in case exposed. This study can provide useful implications for control and prevention measures for the other cruise ships and closed settings. Traditional compartmental models such as SIR (susceptible, infected, recovered) assume that the epidemic transmits in a homogeneous population, but the real contact patterns in epidemics are heterogeneous. Employing a more realistic model that considers heterogeneous contact is consequently necessary. Here, we use a contact network to reconstruct unprotected, protected contact, and airborne spread to simulate the two-stages outbreak of COVID-19 (coronavirus disease 2019) on the "Diamond Princess" cruise ship. We employ Bayesian inference and Metropolis-Hastings sampling to estimate the model parameters and quantify the uncertainties by the ensemble simulation technique. During the early epidemic with intensive social contacts, the results reveal that the average transmissibility t was 0.026 and the basic reproductive number R 0 was 6.94, triple that in the WHO report, indicating that all people would be infected in one month. The t and R 0 decreased to 0.0007 and 0.2 when quarantine was implemented. The reconstruction suggests that diluting the airborne virus concentration in closed settings is useful in addition to isolation, and high-risk susceptible should follow rigorous prevention measures in case exposed. This study can provide useful implications for control and prevention measures for the other cruise ships and closed settings.Traditional compartmental models such as SIR (susceptible, infected, recovered) assume that the epidemic transmits in a homogeneous population, but the real contact patterns in epidemics are heterogeneous. Employing a more realistic model that considers heterogeneous contact is consequently necessary. Here, we use a contact network to reconstruct unprotected, protected contact, and airborne spread to simulate the two-stages outbreak of COVID-19 (coronavirus disease 2019) on the "Diamond Princess" cruise ship. We employ Bayesian inference and Metropolis-Hastings sampling to estimate the model parameters and quantify the uncertainties by the ensemble simulation technique. During the early epidemic with intensive social contacts, the results reveal that the average transmissibility t was 0.026 and the basic reproductive number R 0 was 6.94, triple that in the WHO report, indicating that all people would be infected in one month. The t and R 0 decreased to 0.0007 and 0.2 when quarantine was implemented. The reconstruction suggests that diluting the airborne virus concentration in closed settings is useful in addition to isolation, and high-risk susceptible should follow rigorous prevention measures in case exposed. This study can provide useful implications for control and prevention measures for the other cruise ships and closed settings. |
| Author | Zhu, Gaofeng Liu, Feng Li, Xin |
| Author_xml | – sequence: 1 givenname: Feng surname: Liu fullname: Liu, Feng organization: Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing of Gansu Province, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China – sequence: 2 givenname: Xin surname: Li fullname: Li, Xin email: xinli@itpcas.ac.cn organization: National Tibetan Plateau Data Center, Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China – sequence: 3 givenname: Gaofeng surname: Zhu fullname: Zhu, Gaofeng organization: Key Laboratory of Western China’s Environmental Systems (Ministry of Education), Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China |
| BackLink | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32373394$$D View this record in MEDLINE/PubMed |
| BookMark | eNp9kc1u1DAUhS1URH_oC7BAXrLJ4N8klhASmlJaqagsKFvLsZ3WQ2IH29OKXXkPeLk-CU6njIBFpSvZuj7fudY9-2DHB28BeIHRAiNcv14tknbdgiCCFoiVok_AHkGCV4K0eGd7b-guOExphRDCTBCGmmdglxLaUCrYHvhxkZy_hPnKQh18VjpDb_NNiF_hGIwdoPIGfrQ5hikMLlUnKuUCJJjUOA33aIDRFjbluC707LQ8_3J6VGEB0xStMjD4-_bd7c8jp8ZQHD9F57VN6e7213PwtFdDsocP5wG4OH7_eXlSnZ1_OF2-O6s0JzhXNTKMU0z7RrNaq9bURDOKbV_zpkWkY6LDvapRY0RLWqKN4bYmHLGOtw3vCT0Abze-07obrdHW56gGOUU3qvhdBuXkvy_eXcnLcC0bLFpG22Lw6sEghm9rm7IcXdJ2GJS3YZ0koUIQTmqOi_Tl37O2Q_7svQjIRqBjSCnafivBSM75ypWc85VzvhKxUrRA7X-QdlllF-b_uuFx9M0GtWXD187GWWJLBMaV8LI0wT2G_wYyAsOW |
| CitedBy_id | crossref_primary_10_1371_journal_pone_0296426 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_heliyon_2023_e14231 crossref_primary_10_1103_PhysRevE_105_034313 crossref_primary_10_3389_fpubh_2022_879340 crossref_primary_10_1109_JSTARS_2021_3073156 crossref_primary_10_1038_s41598_022_05643_8 crossref_primary_10_1109_ACCESS_2023_3312129 crossref_primary_10_3389_fphy_2020_00353 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_geosus_2020_11_005 crossref_primary_10_3389_fphy_2022_915441 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_idm_2022_02_001 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_scib_2021_11_023 crossref_primary_10_1007_s11356_020_10962_2 crossref_primary_10_1186_s40649_021_00098_9 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_trip_2020_100185 crossref_primary_10_1108_LHT_03_2021_0113 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_scib_2020_10_008 crossref_primary_10_1007_s10853_021_06850_w crossref_primary_10_1007_s00477_020_01968_w crossref_primary_10_1017_S0950268822000139 crossref_primary_10_1098_rspa_2021_0383 crossref_primary_10_3390_ijerph17217744 crossref_primary_10_3390_healthcare9101292 crossref_primary_10_1093_cid_ciab433 crossref_primary_10_1007_s11071_023_08632_2 crossref_primary_10_1155_jom_9029570 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_jocs_2021_101419 crossref_primary_10_1371_journal_pone_0303216 crossref_primary_10_3390_ijerph19020689 crossref_primary_10_1038_s41598_021_95032_4 crossref_primary_10_1002_14651858_CD013574_pub2 crossref_primary_10_1109_JBHI_2022_3168825 crossref_primary_10_2139_ssrn_3800068 crossref_primary_10_4236_ojepi_2020_104027 crossref_primary_10_1371_journal_pone_0303571 crossref_primary_10_1088_1751_8121_abed66 crossref_primary_10_3390_healthcare10010139 crossref_primary_10_1186_s12889_024_18157_x crossref_primary_10_1016_j_chaos_2024_114695 crossref_primary_10_1098_rsos_211379 crossref_primary_10_3390_ijgi13080283 crossref_primary_10_1038_s41598_024_79990_z crossref_primary_10_1016_j_virusres_2020_198259 crossref_primary_10_1108_IJEFM_08_2021_0066 crossref_primary_10_1371_journal_pone_0262316 crossref_primary_10_3390_e26080703 crossref_primary_10_36502_2020_hcr_6171 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_gene_2021_145496 |
| Cites_doi | 10.1126/science.abb3221 10.1016/j.scib.2020.03.024 10.1016/j.advwatres.2018.02.007 10.1016/j.envsoft.2020.104638 10.1103/PhysRevE.66.016128 10.5194/gmd-7-1467-2014 10.1016/j.scib.2020.02.025 10.1785/0120020077 10.1016/j.scib.2020.02.005 10.1093/cid/cit797 10.1073/pnas.1519235113 10.1029/2005GB002468 10.1073/pnas.1208772109 10.1016/S0025-5564(02)00122-0 10.1186/1471-2105-13-76 10.1090/S0273-0979-06-01148-7 10.1126/science.286.5439.509 10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30260-9 10.1016/j.scib.2020.04.016 10.21037/jtd.2020.02.64 10.1007/s11430-013-4728-9 10.1126/science.1086478 10.1056/NEJMc2004973 10.1038/30918 10.1098/rspa.1927.0118 10.1126/science.1086616 10.1001/jama.2020.3227 10.3390/jcm9020462 10.15585/mmwr.mm6912e3 10.1007/s11430-019-9620-x 10.1126/science.abb6105 10.1093/biomet/57.1.97 |
| ContentType | Journal Article |
| Copyright | 2020 Science China Press 2020 Science China Press. Published by Elsevier B.V. and Science China Press. All rights reserved. 2020 Science China Press. Published by Elsevier B.V. and Science China Press. All rights reserved. 2020 Science China Press |
| Copyright_xml | – notice: 2020 Science China Press – notice: 2020 Science China Press. Published by Elsevier B.V. and Science China Press. All rights reserved. – notice: 2020 Science China Press. Published by Elsevier B.V. and Science China Press. All rights reserved. 2020 Science China Press |
| DBID | AAYXX CITATION NPM 7X8 5PM |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.scib.2020.04.043 |
| DatabaseName | CrossRef PubMed MEDLINE - Academic PubMed Central (Full Participant titles) |
| DatabaseTitle | CrossRef PubMed MEDLINE - Academic |
| DatabaseTitleList | PubMed MEDLINE - Academic |
| Database_xml | – sequence: 1 dbid: NPM name: PubMed url: https://proxy.k.utb.cz/login?url=http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?db=PubMed sourceTypes: Index Database |
| DeliveryMethod | fulltext_linktorsrc |
| Discipline | Sciences (General) |
| EISSN | 2095-9281 |
| EndPage | 1305 |
| ExternalDocumentID | PMC7198438 32373394 10_1016_j_scib_2020_04_043 S2095927320302814 |
| Genre | Journal Article |
| GroupedDBID | --M 0R~ 4.4 5VR AACTN AAEDT AAEDW AAIAV AAJKR AAKOC AALRI AAOAW AARTL AAXUO AAYIU ABBBX ABJNI ABMAC ABQEM ABQYD ABTHY ABUDA ABYKQ ACDAQ ACGFS ACIWK ACKNC ACPRK ACRLP ADBBV ADINQ AEBSH AEGNC AEHWI AEJHL AENEX AFKWA AFRAH AFTJW AFUIB AFXIZ AFZHZ AFZKB AGUBO AGWZB AGYKE AHBYD AHJVU AIEXJ AIIXL AIKHN AITUG AJSZI ALMA_UNASSIGNED_HOLDINGS AMFUW AMRAJ ASPBG ATOGT AUKKA AVWKF AXJTR AZFZN BGNMA BJAXD BKOJK CCEZO CCVFK CHBEP EBS EFJIC EFLBG FA0 FDB FIRID FRRFC FYGXN IXD KOM KOV M41 M4Y NU0 O9- ROL RSV SOJ SPC SPCBC SSE SSK SST SSU SSZ T5K ~G- -SA -S~ 5XA 5XB AAIAL AANXM AAQFI AATTM AAXKI AAYQN AAYTO AAYWO AAYXX AAYZH ABFSG ABJOX ABTEG ABTMW ACBXY ACSTC ACVFH ADCNI ADKPE ADRFC ADVLN AEIPS AEOHA AEPYU AEUPX AEZWR AFBBN AFHIU AFJKZ AFLOW AFPUW AGCQF AGJBK AGQMX AGRNS AHAVH AHSBF AHWEU AIGII AIIUN AIXLP AJBLW AKBMS AKRWK AKYEP AMKLP ANKPU APXCP BNPGV CAJEA CITATION CJPJV CSCUP EJD H13 HX~ Q-- SSH TCJ TGP U1G U5K UG4 AAXDM NPM 7X8 5PM EFKBS |
| ID | FETCH-LOGICAL-c521t-60d45313f7c46ca8d62c431ef657802b49b1fa607d98282cdd5e62504b5875f23 |
| IEDL.DBID | AIKHN |
| ISSN | 2095-9273 |
| IngestDate | Thu Aug 21 18:31:32 EDT 2025 Fri Jul 11 09:12:29 EDT 2025 Wed Feb 19 02:11:57 EST 2025 Thu Apr 24 22:53:41 EDT 2025 Tue Jul 01 02:08:24 EDT 2025 Fri Feb 23 02:48:06 EST 2024 |
| IsDoiOpenAccess | true |
| IsOpenAccess | true |
| IsPeerReviewed | true |
| IsScholarly | true |
| Issue | 15 |
| Keywords | Small-world Airborne spread Transmissibility Contact network model Chain-binomial model The basic reproductive number R0 |
| Language | English |
| License | https://www.elsevier.com/tdm/userlicense/1.0 2020 Science China Press. Published by Elsevier B.V. and Science China Press. All rights reserved. Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active. |
| LinkModel | DirectLink |
| MergedId | FETCHMERGED-LOGICAL-c521t-60d45313f7c46ca8d62c431ef657802b49b1fa607d98282cdd5e62504b5875f23 |
| Notes | ObjectType-Article-1 SourceType-Scholarly Journals-1 ObjectType-Feature-2 content type line 23 |
| OpenAccessLink | https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/PMC7198438 |
| PMID | 32373394 |
| PQID | 2399252651 |
| PQPubID | 23479 |
| PageCount | 9 |
| ParticipantIDs | pubmedcentral_primary_oai_pubmedcentral_nih_gov_7198438 proquest_miscellaneous_2399252651 pubmed_primary_32373394 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_scib_2020_04_043 crossref_citationtrail_10_1016_j_scib_2020_04_043 elsevier_sciencedirect_doi_10_1016_j_scib_2020_04_043 |
| ProviderPackageCode | CITATION AAYXX |
| PublicationCentury | 2000 |
| PublicationDate | 2020-08-15 |
| PublicationDateYYYYMMDD | 2020-08-15 |
| PublicationDate_xml | – month: 08 year: 2020 text: 2020-08-15 day: 15 |
| PublicationDecade | 2020 |
| PublicationPlace | Netherlands |
| PublicationPlace_xml | – name: Netherlands |
| PublicationTitle | Science bulletin (Beijing) |
| PublicationTitleAlternate | Sci Bull (Beijing) |
| PublicationYear | 2020 |
| Publisher | Elsevier B.V Science China Press. Published by Elsevier B.V. and Science China Press |
| Publisher_xml | – name: Elsevier B.V – name: Science China Press. Published by Elsevier B.V. and Science China Press |
| References | Lipsitch, Cohen, Cooper (b0020) 2003; 300 Watts, Strogatz (b0070) 1998; 393 Yang, Zeng, Wang (b0055) 2020; 12 Zhu, Li, Ma (b0170) 2018; 114 Yu, Qiu, Tse (b0125) 2014; 58 Meyers (b0085) 2007; 44 The Government of Hong Kong. Hong Kong 2011 Population Census – Summary Results. https://www.statistics.gov.hk/pub/B11200552011XXXXB0100.pdf. Accessed 4 April 2020. Hastings (b0155) 1970; 57 Newman (b0080) 2002; 66 Li (b0205) 2014; 57 Zhao, Li, Liu (b0060) 2020 Cauchemez, Nouvellet, Cori (b0090) 2016; 113 World Health Organization. Report of the WHO-China joint mission on coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). World Health Organization. https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/who-china-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf. Accessed 4 April 2020. The Government of Hong Kong. WHO Environmental Health Team Reports on Amoy Gardens. https://www.info.gov.hk/gia/general/200305/16/0516114.htm. Accessed 4 April 2020. Liu, Wang, Li (b0180) 2020; 127 van Doremalen, Bushmaker, Morris (b0145) 2020 Wang, McMichael, Meng (b0030) 2006; 84 Zhao, Zhang, Meadows (b0065) 2020; 65 Li, Pei, Chen (b0200) 2020 The Government of Hong Kong. CHP investigates additional case of novel coronavirus infection. https://www.info.gov.hk/gia/general/202002/01/P2020020100795.htm. Accessed 4 April 2020. Shaman, Karspeck (b0195) 2012; 109 Ong, Tan, Chia (b0110) 2020 Huang, Qiao (b0100) 2020; 65 Abbey (b0140) 1952; 24 Zhu, Li, Su (b0165) 2014; 7 Xu, White, Hui (b0160) 2006; 20 Kermack, McKendrick (b0015) 1927; 115 Riley, Fraser, Donnelly (b0025) 2003; 300 Moriarty (b0150) 2020; 69 Hladish, Melamud, Barrera (b0185) 2012; 13 Wu, Leung, Leung (b0050) 2020; 395 Read, Bridgen, Cummings (b0045) 2020 Li, Liu, Fang (b0190) 2020 Gu, Zhu, Sun (b0010) 2020; 65 Tian, Liu, Li (b0035) 2020 Barabási, Albert (b0075) 1999; 286 National Institute of Infectious Diseases of Japan. Field briefing: diamond princess COVID-19 cases. National Institute of Infectious Diseases of Japan. https://www.niid.go.jp/niid/en/2019-ncov-e/9407-covid-dp-fe-01.html. Accessed 4 April 2020. Hilley, Young (b0175) 2008; 98 Dietz, Heesterbeek (b0005) 2002; 180 Tang, Wang, Li (b0040) 2020; 9 Yue, Fan, Fan (b0105) 2020; 65 Gu (10.1016/j.scib.2020.04.043_b0010) 2020; 65 Liu (10.1016/j.scib.2020.04.043_b0180) 2020; 127 Barabási (10.1016/j.scib.2020.04.043_b0075) 1999; 286 Yu (10.1016/j.scib.2020.04.043_b0125) 2014; 58 Abbey (10.1016/j.scib.2020.04.043_b0140) 1952; 24 Meyers (10.1016/j.scib.2020.04.043_b0085) 2007; 44 Ong (10.1016/j.scib.2020.04.043_b0110) 2020 10.1016/j.scib.2020.04.043_b0120 Newman (10.1016/j.scib.2020.04.043_b0080) 2002; 66 Tian (10.1016/j.scib.2020.04.043_b0035) 2020 Moriarty (10.1016/j.scib.2020.04.043_b0150) 2020; 69 Yang (10.1016/j.scib.2020.04.043_b0055) 2020; 12 Hastings (10.1016/j.scib.2020.04.043_b0155) 1970; 57 Dietz (10.1016/j.scib.2020.04.043_b0005) 2002; 180 van Doremalen (10.1016/j.scib.2020.04.043_b0145) 2020 Shaman (10.1016/j.scib.2020.04.043_b0195) 2012; 109 Hladish (10.1016/j.scib.2020.04.043_b0185) 2012; 13 Li (10.1016/j.scib.2020.04.043_b0200) 2020 Li (10.1016/j.scib.2020.04.043_b0205) 2014; 57 Tang (10.1016/j.scib.2020.04.043_b0040) 2020; 9 Li (10.1016/j.scib.2020.04.043_b0190) 2020 10.1016/j.scib.2020.04.043_b0135 Read (10.1016/j.scib.2020.04.043_b0045) 2020 10.1016/j.scib.2020.04.043_b0115 Zhao (10.1016/j.scib.2020.04.043_b0065) 2020; 65 Xu (10.1016/j.scib.2020.04.043_b0160) 2006; 20 Watts (10.1016/j.scib.2020.04.043_b0070) 1998; 393 Kermack (10.1016/j.scib.2020.04.043_b0015) 1927; 115 10.1016/j.scib.2020.04.043_b0095 Wu (10.1016/j.scib.2020.04.043_b0050) 2020; 395 10.1016/j.scib.2020.04.043_b0130 Cauchemez (10.1016/j.scib.2020.04.043_b0090) 2016; 113 Hilley (10.1016/j.scib.2020.04.043_b0175) 2008; 98 Riley (10.1016/j.scib.2020.04.043_b0025) 2003; 300 Yue (10.1016/j.scib.2020.04.043_b0105) 2020; 65 Zhao (10.1016/j.scib.2020.04.043_b0060) 2020 Huang (10.1016/j.scib.2020.04.043_b0100) 2020; 65 Wang (10.1016/j.scib.2020.04.043_b0030) 2006; 84 Zhu (10.1016/j.scib.2020.04.043_b0165) 2014; 7 Zhu (10.1016/j.scib.2020.04.043_b0170) 2018; 114 Lipsitch (10.1016/j.scib.2020.04.043_b0020) 2003; 300 |
| References_xml | – reference: The Government of Hong Kong. CHP investigates additional case of novel coronavirus infection. https://www.info.gov.hk/gia/general/202002/01/P2020020100795.htm. Accessed 4 April 2020. – volume: 395 start-page: 689 year: 2020 end-page: 697 ident: b0050 article-title: Nowcasting and forecasting the potential domestic and international spread of the 2019-nCoV outbreak originating in Wuhan, China: a modelling study publication-title: Lancet – volume: 65 start-page: 865 year: 2020 end-page: 867 ident: b0010 article-title: The inflection point about COVID-19 may have passed publication-title: Sci Bull – volume: 57 start-page: 97 year: 1970 end-page: 109 ident: b0155 article-title: Monte Carlo sampling methods using Markov chains and their applications publication-title: Biometrika – volume: 114 start-page: 164 year: 2018 end-page: 179 ident: b0170 article-title: A new moving strategy for the sequential Monte Carlo approach in optimizing the hydrological model parameters publication-title: Adv Water Resour – volume: 109 start-page: 20425 year: 2012 end-page: 20430 ident: b0195 article-title: Forecasting seasonal outbreaks of influenza publication-title: Proc Natl Acad Sci USA – volume: 7 start-page: 1467 year: 2014 end-page: 1482 ident: b0165 article-title: Simultaneous parameterization of the two-source evapotranspiration model by Bayesian approach: application to spring maize in an arid region of northwest China publication-title: Geosci Model Dev – year: 2020 ident: b0060 article-title: Prediction of the COVID-19 spread in African countries and implications for prevention and controls: a case study in South Africa, Egypt, Algeria, Nigeria, Senegal and Kenya publication-title: Sci Total Environ – volume: 180 start-page: 1 year: 2002 end-page: 21 ident: b0005 article-title: Daniel Bernoulli’s epidemiological model revisited publication-title: Math Biosci – volume: 127 year: 2020 ident: b0180 article-title: ComDA: a common software for nonlinear and non-Gaussian land data assimilation publication-title: Environ Modell Softw – volume: 98 start-page: 383 year: 2008 end-page: 406 ident: b0175 article-title: Deducing paleoearthquake timing and recurrence from paleoseismic data, Part I: evaluation of new Bayesian Markov-Chain Monte Carlo simulation methods applied to excavations with continuous peat growth publication-title: Bull Seismol Soc Am – year: 2020 ident: b0145 article-title: Aerosol and surface stability of SARS-CoV-2 as compared with SARS-CoV-1 publication-title: N Engl J Med – year: 2020 ident: b0035 article-title: An investigation of transmission control measures during the first 50 days of the COVID-19 epidemic in China publication-title: Science – year: 2020 ident: b0190 article-title: Harmonizing models and observations: data assimilation for Earth System Science publication-title: Sci China Earth Sci – volume: 300 start-page: 1966 year: 2003 end-page: 1970 ident: b0020 article-title: Transmission dynamics and control of severe acute respiratory syndrome publication-title: Science – reference: National Institute of Infectious Diseases of Japan. Field briefing: diamond princess COVID-19 cases. National Institute of Infectious Diseases of Japan. https://www.niid.go.jp/niid/en/2019-ncov-e/9407-covid-dp-fe-01.html. Accessed 4 April 2020. – volume: 393 start-page: 440 year: 1998 end-page: 442 ident: b0070 article-title: Collective dynamics of ‘small-world’ networks publication-title: Nature – volume: 24 start-page: 201 year: 1952 ident: b0140 article-title: An examination of the Reed-Frost theory of epidemics publication-title: Hum Biol – volume: 58 start-page: 683 year: 2014 end-page: 686 ident: b0125 article-title: Severe acute respiratory syndrome beyond Amoy Gardens: completing the incomplete legacy publication-title: Clin Infect Dis – volume: 13 start-page: 76 year: 2012 ident: b0185 article-title: EpiFire: an open source C++ library and application for contact network epidemiology publication-title: BMC Bioinf – volume: 20 year: 2006 ident: b0160 article-title: Probabilistic inversion of a terrestrial ecosystem model: analysis of uncertainty in parameter estimation and model prediction publication-title: Glob Biogeochem Cycles – volume: 66 year: 2002 ident: b0080 article-title: Spread of epidemic disease on networks publication-title: Phys Rev E – volume: 12 start-page: 165 year: 2020 end-page: 174 ident: b0055 article-title: Modified SEIR and AI prediction of the epidemics trend of COVID-19 in China under public health interventions publication-title: J Thorac Dis – volume: 84 start-page: 965 year: 2006 end-page: 968 ident: b0030 article-title: Spatial dynamics of an epidemic of severe acute respiratory syndrome in an urban area publication-title: Bull WHO – volume: 65 start-page: 425 year: 2020 end-page: 427 ident: b0100 article-title: A data driven time-dependent transmission rate for tracking an epidemic: a case study of 2019-nCoV publication-title: Sci Bull – reference: The Government of Hong Kong. WHO Environmental Health Team Reports on Amoy Gardens. https://www.info.gov.hk/gia/general/200305/16/0516114.htm. Accessed 4 April 2020. – year: 2020 ident: b0200 article-title: Substantial undocumented infection facilitates the rapid dissemination of novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV2) publication-title: Science – volume: 57 start-page: 80 year: 2014 end-page: 87 ident: b0205 article-title: Characterization, controlling and reduction of uncertainties in the modeling and observation of land-surface systems publication-title: Sci China Earth Sci – volume: 300 start-page: 1961 year: 2003 end-page: 1966 ident: b0025 article-title: Transmission dynamics of the etiological agent of SARS in Hong Kong: impact of public health interventions publication-title: Science – year: 2020 ident: b0045 article-title: Novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV: early estimation of epidemiological parameters and epidemic predictions publication-title: MedRxiv – volume: 65 start-page: 1225 year: 2020 end-page: 1227 ident: b0105 article-title: A new approach to modeling the fade-out threshold of Coronavirus disease publication-title: Sci Bull – reference: The Government of Hong Kong. Hong Kong 2011 Population Census – Summary Results. https://www.statistics.gov.hk/pub/B11200552011XXXXB0100.pdf. Accessed 4 April 2020. – volume: 65 start-page: 876 year: 2020 end-page: 878 ident: b0065 article-title: A systematic approach is needed to contain COVID-19 globally publication-title: Sci Bull – volume: 286 start-page: 509 year: 1999 end-page: 512 ident: b0075 article-title: Emergence of scaling in random networks publication-title: Science – volume: 69 start-page: 347 year: 2020 end-page: 352 ident: b0150 article-title: Public health responses to COVID-19 outbreaks on cruise ships—worldwide, February–March 2020 publication-title: Morb Mortal Wkly Rep – volume: 115 start-page: 700 year: 1927 end-page: 721 ident: b0015 article-title: A contribution to the mathematical theory of epidemics publication-title: Proc R Soc London A – volume: 9 start-page: 462 year: 2020 ident: b0040 article-title: Estimation of the transmission risk of the 2019-nCoV and its implication for public health interventions publication-title: J Clin Med – volume: 44 start-page: 63 year: 2007 end-page: 86 ident: b0085 article-title: Contact network epidemiology: bond percolation applied to infectious disease prediction and control publication-title: Bull Am Math Soc – volume: 113 start-page: 9081 year: 2016 end-page: 9086 ident: b0090 article-title: Unraveling the drivers of MERS-CoV transmission publication-title: Proc Natl Acad Sci USA – year: 2020 ident: b0110 article-title: Air, surface environmental, and personal protective equipment contamination by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) from a symptomatic patient publication-title: JAMA – reference: World Health Organization. Report of the WHO-China joint mission on coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). World Health Organization. https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/who-china-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf. Accessed 4 April 2020. – year: 2020 ident: 10.1016/j.scib.2020.04.043_b0200 article-title: Substantial undocumented infection facilitates the rapid dissemination of novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV2) publication-title: Science doi: 10.1126/science.abb3221 – year: 2020 ident: 10.1016/j.scib.2020.04.043_b0060 article-title: Prediction of the COVID-19 spread in African countries and implications for prevention and controls: a case study in South Africa, Egypt, Algeria, Nigeria, Senegal and Kenya publication-title: Sci Total Environ – volume: 65 start-page: 876 year: 2020 ident: 10.1016/j.scib.2020.04.043_b0065 article-title: A systematic approach is needed to contain COVID-19 globally publication-title: Sci Bull doi: 10.1016/j.scib.2020.03.024 – volume: 114 start-page: 164 year: 2018 ident: 10.1016/j.scib.2020.04.043_b0170 article-title: A new moving strategy for the sequential Monte Carlo approach in optimizing the hydrological model parameters publication-title: Adv Water Resour doi: 10.1016/j.advwatres.2018.02.007 – volume: 127 year: 2020 ident: 10.1016/j.scib.2020.04.043_b0180 article-title: ComDA: a common software for nonlinear and non-Gaussian land data assimilation publication-title: Environ Modell Softw doi: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2020.104638 – ident: 10.1016/j.scib.2020.04.043_b0095 – year: 2020 ident: 10.1016/j.scib.2020.04.043_b0045 article-title: Novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV: early estimation of epidemiological parameters and epidemic predictions publication-title: MedRxiv – volume: 66 year: 2002 ident: 10.1016/j.scib.2020.04.043_b0080 article-title: Spread of epidemic disease on networks publication-title: Phys Rev E doi: 10.1103/PhysRevE.66.016128 – volume: 7 start-page: 1467 year: 2014 ident: 10.1016/j.scib.2020.04.043_b0165 article-title: Simultaneous parameterization of the two-source evapotranspiration model by Bayesian approach: application to spring maize in an arid region of northwest China publication-title: Geosci Model Dev doi: 10.5194/gmd-7-1467-2014 – volume: 65 start-page: 865 year: 2020 ident: 10.1016/j.scib.2020.04.043_b0010 article-title: The inflection point about COVID-19 may have passed publication-title: Sci Bull doi: 10.1016/j.scib.2020.02.025 – ident: 10.1016/j.scib.2020.04.043_b0135 – volume: 98 start-page: 383 year: 2008 ident: 10.1016/j.scib.2020.04.043_b0175 article-title: Deducing paleoearthquake timing and recurrence from paleoseismic data, Part I: evaluation of new Bayesian Markov-Chain Monte Carlo simulation methods applied to excavations with continuous peat growth publication-title: Bull Seismol Soc Am doi: 10.1785/0120020077 – volume: 65 start-page: 425 year: 2020 ident: 10.1016/j.scib.2020.04.043_b0100 article-title: A data driven time-dependent transmission rate for tracking an epidemic: a case study of 2019-nCoV publication-title: Sci Bull doi: 10.1016/j.scib.2020.02.005 – volume: 58 start-page: 683 year: 2014 ident: 10.1016/j.scib.2020.04.043_b0125 article-title: Severe acute respiratory syndrome beyond Amoy Gardens: completing the incomplete legacy publication-title: Clin Infect Dis doi: 10.1093/cid/cit797 – volume: 84 start-page: 965 year: 2006 ident: 10.1016/j.scib.2020.04.043_b0030 article-title: Spatial dynamics of an epidemic of severe acute respiratory syndrome in an urban area publication-title: Bull WHO – volume: 113 start-page: 9081 year: 2016 ident: 10.1016/j.scib.2020.04.043_b0090 article-title: Unraveling the drivers of MERS-CoV transmission publication-title: Proc Natl Acad Sci USA doi: 10.1073/pnas.1519235113 – volume: 20 year: 2006 ident: 10.1016/j.scib.2020.04.043_b0160 article-title: Probabilistic inversion of a terrestrial ecosystem model: analysis of uncertainty in parameter estimation and model prediction publication-title: Glob Biogeochem Cycles doi: 10.1029/2005GB002468 – volume: 109 start-page: 20425 year: 2012 ident: 10.1016/j.scib.2020.04.043_b0195 article-title: Forecasting seasonal outbreaks of influenza publication-title: Proc Natl Acad Sci USA doi: 10.1073/pnas.1208772109 – volume: 180 start-page: 1 year: 2002 ident: 10.1016/j.scib.2020.04.043_b0005 article-title: Daniel Bernoulli’s epidemiological model revisited publication-title: Math Biosci doi: 10.1016/S0025-5564(02)00122-0 – volume: 13 start-page: 76 year: 2012 ident: 10.1016/j.scib.2020.04.043_b0185 article-title: EpiFire: an open source C++ library and application for contact network epidemiology publication-title: BMC Bioinf doi: 10.1186/1471-2105-13-76 – volume: 44 start-page: 63 year: 2007 ident: 10.1016/j.scib.2020.04.043_b0085 article-title: Contact network epidemiology: bond percolation applied to infectious disease prediction and control publication-title: Bull Am Math Soc doi: 10.1090/S0273-0979-06-01148-7 – volume: 286 start-page: 509 year: 1999 ident: 10.1016/j.scib.2020.04.043_b0075 article-title: Emergence of scaling in random networks publication-title: Science doi: 10.1126/science.286.5439.509 – volume: 395 start-page: 689 year: 2020 ident: 10.1016/j.scib.2020.04.043_b0050 article-title: Nowcasting and forecasting the potential domestic and international spread of the 2019-nCoV outbreak originating in Wuhan, China: a modelling study publication-title: Lancet doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30260-9 – volume: 65 start-page: 1225 year: 2020 ident: 10.1016/j.scib.2020.04.043_b0105 article-title: A new approach to modeling the fade-out threshold of Coronavirus disease publication-title: Sci Bull doi: 10.1016/j.scib.2020.04.016 – volume: 12 start-page: 165 year: 2020 ident: 10.1016/j.scib.2020.04.043_b0055 article-title: Modified SEIR and AI prediction of the epidemics trend of COVID-19 in China under public health interventions publication-title: J Thorac Dis doi: 10.21037/jtd.2020.02.64 – volume: 57 start-page: 80 year: 2014 ident: 10.1016/j.scib.2020.04.043_b0205 article-title: Characterization, controlling and reduction of uncertainties in the modeling and observation of land-surface systems publication-title: Sci China Earth Sci doi: 10.1007/s11430-013-4728-9 – volume: 300 start-page: 1961 year: 2003 ident: 10.1016/j.scib.2020.04.043_b0025 article-title: Transmission dynamics of the etiological agent of SARS in Hong Kong: impact of public health interventions publication-title: Science doi: 10.1126/science.1086478 – ident: 10.1016/j.scib.2020.04.043_b0130 – ident: 10.1016/j.scib.2020.04.043_b0115 – volume: 24 start-page: 201 year: 1952 ident: 10.1016/j.scib.2020.04.043_b0140 article-title: An examination of the Reed-Frost theory of epidemics publication-title: Hum Biol – year: 2020 ident: 10.1016/j.scib.2020.04.043_b0145 article-title: Aerosol and surface stability of SARS-CoV-2 as compared with SARS-CoV-1 publication-title: N Engl J Med doi: 10.1056/NEJMc2004973 – ident: 10.1016/j.scib.2020.04.043_b0120 – volume: 393 start-page: 440 year: 1998 ident: 10.1016/j.scib.2020.04.043_b0070 article-title: Collective dynamics of ‘small-world’ networks publication-title: Nature doi: 10.1038/30918 – volume: 115 start-page: 700 year: 1927 ident: 10.1016/j.scib.2020.04.043_b0015 article-title: A contribution to the mathematical theory of epidemics publication-title: Proc R Soc London A doi: 10.1098/rspa.1927.0118 – volume: 300 start-page: 1966 year: 2003 ident: 10.1016/j.scib.2020.04.043_b0020 article-title: Transmission dynamics and control of severe acute respiratory syndrome publication-title: Science doi: 10.1126/science.1086616 – year: 2020 ident: 10.1016/j.scib.2020.04.043_b0110 article-title: Air, surface environmental, and personal protective equipment contamination by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) from a symptomatic patient publication-title: JAMA doi: 10.1001/jama.2020.3227 – volume: 9 start-page: 462 year: 2020 ident: 10.1016/j.scib.2020.04.043_b0040 article-title: Estimation of the transmission risk of the 2019-nCoV and its implication for public health interventions publication-title: J Clin Med doi: 10.3390/jcm9020462 – volume: 69 start-page: 347 year: 2020 ident: 10.1016/j.scib.2020.04.043_b0150 article-title: Public health responses to COVID-19 outbreaks on cruise ships—worldwide, February–March 2020 publication-title: Morb Mortal Wkly Rep doi: 10.15585/mmwr.mm6912e3 – year: 2020 ident: 10.1016/j.scib.2020.04.043_b0190 article-title: Harmonizing models and observations: data assimilation for Earth System Science publication-title: Sci China Earth Sci doi: 10.1007/s11430-019-9620-x – year: 2020 ident: 10.1016/j.scib.2020.04.043_b0035 article-title: An investigation of transmission control measures during the first 50 days of the COVID-19 epidemic in China publication-title: Science doi: 10.1126/science.abb6105 – volume: 57 start-page: 97 year: 1970 ident: 10.1016/j.scib.2020.04.043_b0155 article-title: Monte Carlo sampling methods using Markov chains and their applications publication-title: Biometrika doi: 10.1093/biomet/57.1.97 |
| SSID | ssj0001492407 ssib060475419 ssib054405809 |
| Score | 2.4898536 |
| Snippet | Traditional compartmental models such as SIR (susceptible, infected, recovered) assume that the epidemic transmits in a homogeneous population, but the real... |
| SourceID | pubmedcentral proquest pubmed crossref elsevier |
| SourceType | Open Access Repository Aggregation Database Index Database Enrichment Source Publisher |
| StartPage | 1297 |
| SubjectTerms | Airborne spread Chain-binomial model Contact network model Small-world The basic reproductive number R0 Transmissibility |
| Title | Using the contact network model and Metropolis-Hastings sampling to reconstruct the COVID-19 spread on the “Diamond Princess” |
| URI | https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.scib.2020.04.043 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32373394 https://www.proquest.com/docview/2399252651 https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/PMC7198438 |
| Volume | 65 |
| hasFullText | 1 |
| inHoldings | 1 |
| isFullTextHit | |
| isPrint | |
| link | http://utb.summon.serialssolutions.com/2.0.0/link/0/eLvHCXMwnV3NbtQwELaq9sIFUSiw_FRG6gFURZvYjhMfqy3VFmipWop6s-zYUYNQdqUs9_Ie8HJ9EmYcZ9stogekXBL_yLJnPDPO5_kI2TGFN8IKntiytolQoIoWHBPQ-AIMNpgsX-Dl5KNjOT0XHy7yizUyGe7CIKwy7v39nh526_hlHGdzPG-a8RnDIyywvgzklJVIZr3BuJIg2ht7hx-nxzdHLUJh3II0cykyE0KbeH2mR3pB7xYiRZaGpKeC_8tE_e2C3kVS3jJNB4_Iw-hT0r1-2JtkzbePyWbU2o6-jaml3z0hPwNCgILTRxGjbqoFbXscOA2UONS0jh75RaBOaLpkajqERXe0M4g8x6YzGmLoPu9s6Gny-evhfpIp2s3BA3V01obP11e_9hvkMnL0BE_0YUu9vvq9Rc4P3n-ZTJNIwpBUyHWQyNQJ0FNeF5WQlSmdZBU4Hb6WoOsps0LZrDYyLZyC4I1VzuVeYl40m0MoVDP-lKy3s9Y_J1Q5w6rMlKmBYiPBMJpS5Mzy0jtv02xEsmHedRUzlCNRxnc9QNG-aVwrjWulUwEPH5HdZZt5n5_j3tr5sJx6Rco0GJB7270Z1l6D-uE_FdP62Y9O49VghhQDMPpnvSwsx8EZLzhXYkSKFSlZVsDU3qslbXMZUnwXmSoFL1_853hfkgf4hmffWf6KrINI-NfgPC3sNijH5PTTyXZUkj_eWBtV |
| linkProvider | Elsevier |
| linkToHtml | http://utb.summon.serialssolutions.com/2.0.0/link/0/eLvHCXMwnV1LT9wwELbQcmgvVaGv7QOM1ANVFW1iO68jWoqywG6RChU3y44dkarKrpTtHf4H_XP8ks44zrZLVQ6VcorjyIpnPDPO5-8j5L1KrRJa8EBnlQ5EDq6oITEBj08hYEPIsikeTp7OkuJCHF_Glxtk3J-FQVilX_u7Nd2t1v7OyH_N0aKuR18YbmFB9GVgpyxDMetNZKeKB2TzYHJSzH5vtYgc6xaUmQtRmRD6-OMzHdIL3q6hUmShIz0V_F8h6u8U9D6S8o_QdPSUPPE5JT3ohr1FNmyzTba817Z031NLf3hGbhxCgELSRxGjrsolbTocOHWSOFQ1hk7t0kkn1G1QqBZh0S1tFSLPseucuhq64511bxp__jo5DKKctgvIQA2dN-723fXtYY1aRoae4Y4-LKl31z-fk4ujT-fjIvAiDEGJWgdBEhoBfsqrtBRJqTKTsBKSDlsl4Osh0yLXUaWSMDU5FG-sNCa2CfKi6RhKoYrxF2TQzBv7itDcKFZGKgsVNKsEAqPKRMw0z6yxOoyGJOq_uyw9QzkKZXyXPRTtm8S5kjhXMhRw8SH5uOqz6Pg5Hnw67qdTrlmZhADyYL-9fu4luB_-U1GNnf9oJR4NZigxAKN_2dnCahyc8ZTzXAxJumYlqweQ2nu9pamvHMV3GuWZ4Nnr_xzvLnlUnE9P5elkdvKGPMYW3AeP4rdkAOZh30EitdQ73lF-AVLxHKY |
| openUrl | ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&ctx_enc=info%3Aofi%2Fenc%3AUTF-8&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fsummon.serialssolutions.com&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=article&rft.atitle=Using+the+contact+network+model+and+Metropolis-Hastings+sampling+to+reconstruct+the+COVID-19+spread+on+the+%22Diamond+Princess%22&rft.jtitle=Science+bulletin+%28Beijing%29&rft.au=Liu%2C+Feng&rft.au=Li%2C+Xin&rft.au=Zhu%2C+Gaofeng&rft.date=2020-08-15&rft.issn=2095-9273&rft.volume=65&rft.issue=15&rft.spage=1297&rft_id=info:doi/10.1016%2Fj.scib.2020.04.043&rft.externalDBID=NO_FULL_TEXT |
| thumbnail_l | http://covers-cdn.summon.serialssolutions.com/index.aspx?isbn=/lc.gif&issn=2095-9273&client=summon |
| thumbnail_m | http://covers-cdn.summon.serialssolutions.com/index.aspx?isbn=/mc.gif&issn=2095-9273&client=summon |
| thumbnail_s | http://covers-cdn.summon.serialssolutions.com/index.aspx?isbn=/sc.gif&issn=2095-9273&client=summon |