The influence of mask use on the spread of COVID-19 during pandemic in New York City
In New York City, the situation of COVID-19 is so serious that it has caused hundreds of thousands of people to be infected due to its strong infectivity. The desired effect of wearing masks by the public is not ideal, though increasingly recommended by the WHO. In order to reveal the potential effe...
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| Published in | Results in physics Vol. 34; p. 105224 |
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| Main Authors | , , , , |
| Format | Journal Article |
| Language | English |
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Elsevier B.V
01.03.2022
The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V Elsevier |
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| Abstract | In New York City, the situation of COVID-19 is so serious that it has caused hundreds of thousands of people to be infected due to its strong infectivity. The desired effect of wearing masks by the public is not ideal, though increasingly recommended by the WHO. In order to reveal the potential effect of mask use, we posed a dynamical model with the effective coverage of wearing face masks to assess the impact of mask use on the COVID-19 transmission. We obtained the basic reproduction number R0 which determined the global dynamics. According to the implement of policies in New York City, we divided the transmission of COVID-19 in three stages. Based on mathematical model and data, we obtain the mean value R0=1.822 in the first stage of New York City, while R0=0.6483 in the second stage due to that the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recommended the public wear masks on April 3, 2020, R0=1.024 in the third stage after reopening. It was found that if the effective coverage rate of mask use α exceed a certain value αc=0.182, COVID-19 can be well controlled in the second stage of New York City. Additionally, when the effective coverage of masks reaches a certain level α=0.5, the benefits are not obvious with the increased coverage rate compared to the cost of medical resources. Moreover, if the effective coverage of mask use in public reaches 20% in the first stage, then the cumulative confirmed cases will be reduced about 50% by 03 April, 2020. Our results demonstrated a new insight on the effect of mask use in controlling the transmission of COVID-19. |
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| AbstractList | In New York City, the situation of COVID-19 is so serious that it has caused hundreds of thousands of people to be infected due to its strong infectivity. The desired effect of wearing masks by the public is not ideal, though increasingly recommended by the WHO. In order to reveal the potential effect of mask use, we posed a dynamical model with the effective coverage of wearing face masks to assess the impact of mask use on the COVID-19 transmission. We obtained the basic reproduction number R0which determined the global dynamics. According to the implement of policies in New York City, we divided the transmission of COVID-19 in three stages. Based on mathematical model and data, we obtain the mean value R0=1.822in the first stage of New York City, while R0=0.6483in the second stage due to that the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recommended the public wear masks on April 3, 2020, R0=1.024in the third stage after reopening. It was found that if the effective coverage rate of mask use αexceed a certain value αc=0.182, COVID-19 can be well controlled in the second stage of New York City. Additionally, when the effective coverage of masks reaches a certain level α=0.5, the benefits are not obvious with the increased coverage rate compared to the cost of medical resources. Moreover, if the effective coverage of mask use in public reaches 20% in the first stage, then the cumulative confirmed cases will be reduced about 50% by 03 April, 2020. Our results demonstrated a new insight on the effect of mask use in controlling the transmission of COVID-19. In New York City, the situation of COVID-19 is so serious that it has caused hundreds of thousands of people to be infected due to its strong infectivity. The desired effect of wearing masks by the public is not ideal, though increasingly recommended by the WHO. In order to reveal the potential effect of mask use, we posed a dynamical model with the effective coverage of wearing face masks to assess the impact of mask use on the COVID-19 transmission. We obtained the basic reproduction number R 0 which determined the global dynamics. According to the implement of policies in New York City, we divided the transmission of COVID-19 in three stages. Based on mathematical model and data, we obtain the mean value R 0 = 1 . 822 in the first stage of New York City, while R 0 = 0 . 6483 in the second stage due to that the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recommended the public wear masks on April 3, 2020, R 0 = 1 . 024 in the third stage after reopening. It was found that if the effective coverage rate of mask use α exceed a certain value α c = 0 . 182 , COVID-19 can be well controlled in the second stage of New York City. Additionally, when the effective coverage of masks reaches a certain level α = 0 . 5 , the benefits are not obvious with the increased coverage rate compared to the cost of medical resources. Moreover, if the effective coverage of mask use in public reaches 20% in the first stage, then the cumulative confirmed cases will be reduced about 50% by 03 April, 2020. Our results demonstrated a new insight on the effect of mask use in controlling the transmission of COVID-19. In New York City, the situation of COVID-19 is so serious that it has caused hundreds of thousands of people to be infected due to its strong infectivity. The desired effect of wearing masks by the public is not ideal, though increasingly recommended by the WHO. In order to reveal the potential effect of mask use, we posed a dynamical model with the effective coverage of wearing face masks to assess the impact of mask use on the COVID-19 transmission. We obtained the basic reproduction number R 0 which determined the global dynamics. According to the implement of policies in New York City, we divided the transmission of COVID-19 in three stages. Based on mathematical model and data, we obtain the mean value R 0 = 1 . 822 in the first stage of New York City, while R 0 = 0 . 6483 in the second stage due to that the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recommended the public wear masks on April 3, 2020, R 0 = 1 . 024 in the third stage after reopening. It was found that if the effective coverage rate of mask use α exceed a certain value α c = 0 . 182 , COVID-19 can be well controlled in the second stage of New York City. Additionally, when the effective coverage of masks reaches a certain level α = 0 . 5 , the benefits are not obvious with the increased coverage rate compared to the cost of medical resources. Moreover, if the effective coverage of mask use in public reaches 20% in the first stage, then the cumulative confirmed cases will be reduced about 50% by 03 April, 2020. Our results demonstrated a new insight on the effect of mask use in controlling the transmission of COVID-19.In New York City, the situation of COVID-19 is so serious that it has caused hundreds of thousands of people to be infected due to its strong infectivity. The desired effect of wearing masks by the public is not ideal, though increasingly recommended by the WHO. In order to reveal the potential effect of mask use, we posed a dynamical model with the effective coverage of wearing face masks to assess the impact of mask use on the COVID-19 transmission. We obtained the basic reproduction number R 0 which determined the global dynamics. According to the implement of policies in New York City, we divided the transmission of COVID-19 in three stages. Based on mathematical model and data, we obtain the mean value R 0 = 1 . 822 in the first stage of New York City, while R 0 = 0 . 6483 in the second stage due to that the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recommended the public wear masks on April 3, 2020, R 0 = 1 . 024 in the third stage after reopening. It was found that if the effective coverage rate of mask use α exceed a certain value α c = 0 . 182 , COVID-19 can be well controlled in the second stage of New York City. Additionally, when the effective coverage of masks reaches a certain level α = 0 . 5 , the benefits are not obvious with the increased coverage rate compared to the cost of medical resources. Moreover, if the effective coverage of mask use in public reaches 20% in the first stage, then the cumulative confirmed cases will be reduced about 50% by 03 April, 2020. Our results demonstrated a new insight on the effect of mask use in controlling the transmission of COVID-19. In New York City, the situation of COVID-19 is so serious that it has caused hundreds of thousands of people to be infected due to its strong infectivity. The desired effect of wearing masks by the public is not ideal, though increasingly recommended by the WHO. In order to reveal the potential effect of mask use, we posed a dynamical model with the effective coverage of wearing face masks to assess the impact of mask use on the COVID-19 transmission. We obtained the basic reproduction number which determined the global dynamics. According to the implement of policies in New York City, we divided the transmission of COVID-19 in three stages. Based on mathematical model and data, we obtain the mean value in the first stage of New York City, while in the second stage due to that the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recommended the public wear masks on April 3, 2020, in the third stage after reopening. It was found that if the effective coverage rate of mask use exceed a certain value , COVID-19 can be well controlled in the second stage of New York City. Additionally, when the effective coverage of masks reaches a certain level , the benefits are not obvious with the increased coverage rate compared to the cost of medical resources. Moreover, if the effective coverage of mask use in public reaches 20% in the first stage, then the cumulative confirmed cases will be reduced about 50% by 03 April, 2020. Our results demonstrated a new insight on the effect of mask use in controlling the transmission of COVID-19. In New York City, the situation of COVID-19 is so serious that it has caused hundreds of thousands of people to be infected due to its strong infectivity. The desired effect of wearing masks by the public is not ideal, though increasingly recommended by the WHO. In order to reveal the potential effect of mask use, we posed a dynamical model with the effective coverage of wearing face masks to assess the impact of mask use on the COVID-19 transmission. We obtained the basic reproduction number R0 which determined the global dynamics. According to the implement of policies in New York City, we divided the transmission of COVID-19 in three stages. Based on mathematical model and data, we obtain the mean value R0=1.822 in the first stage of New York City, while R0=0.6483 in the second stage due to that the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recommended the public wear masks on April 3, 2020, R0=1.024 in the third stage after reopening. It was found that if the effective coverage rate of mask use α exceed a certain value αc=0.182, COVID-19 can be well controlled in the second stage of New York City. Additionally, when the effective coverage of masks reaches a certain level α=0.5, the benefits are not obvious with the increased coverage rate compared to the cost of medical resources. Moreover, if the effective coverage of mask use in public reaches 20% in the first stage, then the cumulative confirmed cases will be reduced about 50% by 03 April, 2020. Our results demonstrated a new insight on the effect of mask use in controlling the transmission of COVID-19. |
| ArticleNumber | 105224 |
| Author | Ma, Xia Li, Yong Li, Li Sun, Gui-Quan Luo, Xiao-Feng |
| Author_xml | – sequence: 1 givenname: Xia surname: Ma fullname: Ma, Xia organization: School of Big Data, North University of China, Taiyuan, 030051, China – sequence: 2 givenname: Xiao-Feng surname: Luo fullname: Luo, Xiao-Feng organization: Department of Mathematics, North University of China, Taiyuan, 030051, China – sequence: 3 givenname: Li surname: Li fullname: Li, Li organization: School of Computer and Information Technology, Shanxi University, Taiyuan, 030006, China – sequence: 4 givenname: Yong surname: Li fullname: Li, Yong organization: School of Information and Mathematics, Yangtze University, Jingzhou, 434023, China – sequence: 5 givenname: Gui-Quan orcidid: 0000-0002-1831-1603 surname: Sun fullname: Sun, Gui-Quan email: gquansun@126.com organization: School of Big Data, North University of China, Taiyuan, 030051, China |
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| Keywords | COVID-19 Markov chain Basic reproduction number Parameter estimation Sensitivity analysis Face mask |
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| License | This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license. 2022 The Authors. Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active. |
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| Title | The influence of mask use on the spread of COVID-19 during pandemic in New York City |
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